Pacific Islands - Polynesia and Melanesia.

[ngatimozart]

A Newsroom article by NZ MP's Ingrid Leary (NZ Labour Party) and Simon O'Connor (NZ National Party), both co-chairs of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China. In it they discuss the CCP/PRC security agreement with the Solomon Islands and the PLA basing there, which they believe is a forgone conclusion.

Pacific Islands Must Respond 'Urgently' to Chinese Expansion | Newsroom

 

[recce.k1]

Some earlier updates (from the last month or so) both the US and Japan have sent officials to the Solomon Islands in late April to meet with Prime Minister Sogavare and his officials. No change of outcome although it was reported that "the US would “respond accordingly” if Beijing established a permanent military presence in the country".

BTW a quick explainer video of the situation by the Center for Strategic & International Studies gives an overview of the situation.

But it needs to be noted that at this stage no permanent military presence has been announced let alone proposed (at least publicly). In the meantime various aid projects continue from "both sides" to secure economic development opportunities for the population. So "soft power" in play, including within the wider region, some of which are historical projects but there has been some new developments and of late some appear concerning.

Lucy Craymer wrote for Reuters on 17 May, discussing various aspects including:

Already New Zealand and Japan have announced plans to increase security ties and other moves are afoot.

(NZ Foreign Minister) Mahuta visited Fiji at the end of March and signed an agreement that among things will facilitate information on shared security challenges.

At the start of the month, a partly New Zealand-backed tuna processing plant for the Solomon Islands that is set to create more than 5500 jobs was announced.

Alarmed by Solomon Islands-China pact, New Zealand finds its voice on security

Opinion - NZ has long been seen as the moderate, even absent, voice on China in the "Five Eyes" alliance, but its tone on security and Beijing's presence in the South Pacific has toughened, Lucy Craymer writes.

www.rnz.co.nz

On Monday former NZ Foreign Minister Winston Peters who tends to speak his mind tended to be a bit blunter "We indicated clearly that the Solomons is a proud sovereign nation and we respect that, but we also laid out that if they decided to take certain steps that we thought created a potential security risk for the wider region, then we would have concerns with that."

'Dark clouds gathering': Peters says Pacific security concerns 'avoidable', US warned years ago of need for cooperation

It comes against the backdrop of the China-Solomon Islands security deal.

www.newshub.co.nz

With the change of Govt in Australia last weekend they now have the opportunity to establish their proposed policy to develop a "Pacific defence school to train its neighbours’ armed forces". This would appear to be a helpful initiative because it should strengthen Pacific Island co-operation, trust an well-being, and perhaps also the Biketawa Declaration which is to have these nations (with Australia & NZ) assist the others in times of need including upholding democratic principles and promoting regional stability etc.

‘Muscle up’: Labor pledges Pacific defence school as experts urge boost in military might

Australia will train Pacific nations’ troops if Labor wins the election as experts warn the Defence Force must expand its capabilities in the same way Ukraine did after 2014.

www.smh.com.au

Meanwhile as NM reports in the NZDF thread the CCP are sending their Foreign Minister Wang to visit various Pacific Island nations.

Stuff (NZ MSM) tonight is carrying an article by Nick Perry of Associated Press which opens with "China wants 10 small Pacific nations to endorse a sweeping agreement covering everything from security to fisheries in what one leader warns is a “game-changing” bid by Beijing to wrest control of the region". There is however push-back from Micronesia’s President David Panuelo warning the other Pacific Island nations of the CCP's intentions "warning of dire consequences" (and frankly sometimes I wonder about the perceived naivety of some of these nations' leaders as to who they are dealing with, which is an authoritarian state, on the one hand offering economic incentives but on the other hand its motives if left unchecked will bring instability and tensions to their doorsteps).

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

Certainly Kiribati Opposition leader Tessie Eria Lambourne can see right through the CCP's playbook.

Speaking to 1News, Kiribati Opposition leader Tessie Eria Lambourne says she is “gravely concerned” about any potential security arrangement as she believes it will involve the militarisation of one of its atolls, Kanton Island, and Chinese control over the area.

“Our rich marine territory in the Phoenix Islands Protected Area (PIPA) will be under China’s control for sure,” she said.

The area is valuable for its geo-strategic location including proximity to United States military installations along with its rich fisheries resources.

Last year, 1News revealed how the Kiribati Government was ditching PIPA, a marine reserve and World Heritage site to open up to commercial fishing in a move believed to have been driven by Beijing.

China is also funding a feasibility study to upgrade the runway and causeway on Kanton Island which has raised alarm in the US and Australia.

Top level Chinese delegation headed to Kiribati

Foreign Minister Wang Yi is to visit Kiribati on Friday for four hours as part of a Pacific tour to strengthen security ties in the region.

www.1news.co.nz

So perhaps my concerns about any "perceived naivety of these nations' leaders" is balanced by Opposition parties and some of the populace not being naive at all! In the Solomon Islands for example the likes of the National Council of Women (NCW), amongst others, are calling for the scrapping of the new SI/CCP security arrangement. Their voices shouldn't be underestimated, like many groups they have networks with other Pacific Forum groups and academia and NGO's in the wider Pacific/Aust/NZ and US/Hawaii region.

Women leaders want security treaty cancelled

BY MAVIS N. PODOKOLO WOMEN leaders want the next government to cancel the controversial security treaty Honiara signed with Beijing this week. “The security agreement is not done in the interest of…

theislandsun.com.sb

 

[Redlands18]

After Pacific deal setback, China waters down language on trade and cybersecurity in new paper

China's government says it remains confident it can strike a sweeping trade and security agreement with 10 Pacific Island states despite being forced to shelve its proposed agreement, but a new position paper walks back previous references on joint policing, free trade and cybersecurity.

www.abc.net.au

China has been forced to shelve its proposed agreement with 10 Pacific Nations after some of the Nations had concerns about some issues in the agreement.

 

[ngatimozart]

Prof Anne-Marie Brady on the PRC ambitions in the Pacific. Like she says they won't give up and she's very clear about the strategic implications.

Also PRC security have been intimidating journalists in Fiji and preventing them from doing their job their and in Tonga.

 

[Gooey]

It is interesting to see the different responses from Prof AMB and the PM. For one it's a hostile power entering our region (ala worst case-course of action 2021 NZ MoD Defence Assessment and the Imperial Japanese "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere") and for the other, it's a 'situation normal ... be it a bit different (sic)'.

From the political word salad of the PM and Minister Mahuta, I am not seeing any urgency. Certainly, no appreciation of the need for kiwi hard/kinetic power.

Perhaps the sole NZ Gov responses that have been mentioned are:
1. to get the US further engaged/re-engaged in the (South) Pacific, from the PM at today's US Presidential talk; and,
2. more jaw-jaw from Minister Mahuta.

 

[ngatimozart]

It is interesting to see the different responses from Prof AMB and the PM. For one it's a hostile power entering our region (ala worst case-course of action 2021 NZ MoD Defence Assessment and the Imperial Japanese "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere") and for the other, it's a 'situation normal ... be it a bit different (sic)'.

From the political word salad of the PM and Minister Mahuta, I am not seeing any urgency. Certainly, no appreciation of the need for kiwi hard/kinetic power.

Perhaps the sole NZ Gov responses that have been mentioned are:
1. to get the US further engaged/re-engaged in the (South) Pacific, from the PM at today's US Presidential talk; and,
2. more jaw-jaw from Minister Mahuta.

I liked AMB's very astute reference to the Imperial Japanese "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" because most of us have concentrated on the IJA / IJN military advances during 1941 / 42 as an analogy. I hadn't actually looed at the current CCP / PRC strategy in terms of the Imperial Japanese "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" and I think that is a more appropriate analogy.

WRT our glorious leaders, it's all yap and no substance as per usual.

 

[recce.k1]

Meanwhile a fascinating article today by the ABC on CCP Foreign Minister Wang's planned visit to PNG this week.

In essence the CCP appear to be "tone deaf" in terms of respecting the locals as the timing of the visit coincides with the upcoming elections.

Apparently for Papua New Guineans having high profile foreign dignitaries visit during what can be a tumultuous (and deadly violent) occasion is poorly received (for any nation visiting, even for one of their closest neighbours, Australia)!

This is bipartisan, as the ABC article reports on both the current PM James Marape and Opposition leader (and former PM) Peter O'Neill are of similar views.

Presumably then the CCP have "forced" themselves in to meet current PM Marape (or to be polite "coerced" may be a better description). How this will play out with some segments of the population may become "interesting" to say the least in the next few days ....

The ADF are sending in extra personnel to assist with the security of the election (eg that usually entails protecting voting booths and ensuring people can cast their vote safely etc).

Article also mentions a "special economic zone" development for PNG's Western Province (which appears to include a "naval base" and "military base", which will attract increased "suspicion" from the locals).

'It is unnecessary': Why China's charm offensive through the Pacific is about to get awkward

When China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi lands in PNG, the streets will likely be full of people cheering and chanting. But they won't be welcoming him, writes Natalie Whiting.

www.abc.net.au

Then to make matters worse for the locals and yet another example of incredibly bad CCP infrastructure development, found article links that led to an earlier ABC story on a project in the PNG capital city Port Morseby. The 23-storey "Noble Centre" tower has been deemed uninhabitable as it has dozens "highly illegal", "non-compliant", "poorly installed" and "dangerous" faults and compliance issues including mechanical, electrical and fire safety concerns. Suspect it will cost a great deal of time and effort to make these issues compliant and wonder if the will and funding is there to actually do so?

Honestly why does the CCP undertake such "garbage" vanity projects, as it only damages their reputation with the locals?

A $95m skyscraper was meant to be a symbol of China's rising influence in PNG. Now it's been declared 'uninhabitable'

Documents leaked to the ABC reveal the tallest building in Papua New Guinea, constructed by Chinese investors as a "symbol of friendship" between the two nations, has been deemed uninhabitable.

www.abc.net.au

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Meanwhile a fascinating article today by the ABC on CCP Foreign Minister Wang's planned visit to PNG this week.

In essence the CCP appear to be "tone deaf" in terms of respecting the locals as the timing of the visit coincides with the upcoming elections.

Apparently for Papua New Guineans having high profile foreign dignitaries visit during what can be a tumultuous (and deadly violent) occasion is poorly received (for any nation visiting, even for one of their closest neighbours, Australia)!

This is bipartisan, as the ABC article reports on both the current PM James Marape and Opposition leader (and former PM) Peter O'Neill are of similar views.

Presumably then the CCP have "forced" themselves in to meet current PM Marape (or to be polite "coerced" may be a better description). How this will play out with some segments of the population may become "interesting" to say the least in the next few days ....

The ADF are sending in extra personnel to assist with the security of the election (eg that usually entails protecting voting booths and ensuring people can caste their vote safely etc).

Article also mentions a "special economic zone" development for PNG's Western Province (which appears to include a "naval base" and "military base", which will attract increased "suspicion" from the locals).

'It is unnecessary': Why China's charm offensive through the Pacific is about to get awkward

When China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi lands in PNG, the streets will likely be full of people cheering and chanting. But they won't be welcoming him, writes Natalie Whiting.

www.abc.net.au

Then to make matters worse for the locals and yet another example of incredibly bad CCP infrastructure development, found article links that led to an earlier ABC story on a project in the PNG capital city Port Morseby. The 23-storey "Noble Centre" tower has been deemed uninhabitable as it has dozens "highly illegal", "non-compliant", "poorly installed" and "dangerous" faults and compliance issues including mechanical, electrical and fire safety concerns. Suspect it will cost a great deal of time and effort to make these issues compliant and wonder if the will and funding is there to actually do so?

Honestly why does the CCP undertake such "garbage" vanity projects, as it only damages their reputation with the locals?

A $95m skyscraper was meant to be a symbol of China's rising influence in PNG. Now it's been declared 'uninhabitable'

Documents leaked to the ABC reveal the tallest building in Papua New Guinea, constructed by Chinese investors as a "symbol of friendship" between the two nations, has been deemed uninhabitable.

www.abc.net.au

Probably a garbage project Because it's the norm for them to do so, just as they have with projects across the globe , including rail projects in Nz and Australia.And Whangarei bridge, my former home town.Bribery, corruption , cutting corners is rife back there in China

 

[recce.k1]

Yesterday (NZ radio station) Newstalk ZB interviewed former ADF Major General Mick Ryan (now Commander of the Australian Defence College) primarily on the war in Ukraine but also touched upon China/Taiwan and towards the end of the interview the CCP's increased focus on the Pacific Islands of late.

When asked about the latter he stated the CCP are "attacking Australia directly" because Australia has "stood up to them across multiple realms" and doesn't like the fact Australia has become "an example for other democracies that will stand up to them". He also states "secondly it's a great game between the Chinese and the US, the South Pacific traditionally has been an area of great interest and good relationships between Australia, the Pacific Island nations and the US as well, and the Chinese are trying to distract us from our attention in the western Pacific around Taiwan, by going around these islands and offering all kinds of largess, none of which will really benefit the people of the Pacific Islands but maybe some of the elites". Unfortunately the interview ended but some interesting points were made.

Mick Ryan: Former Australian Major General shares opinion Ukraine-Russia war

A bit of insight into wars and conflicts plaguing the world from one of the world's leading military brains. Major General Mick Ryan served in the Australi

www.newstalkzb.co.nz

Which leads into another ABC article from today which appears to dovetail with the above ZB radio interview and is headlined "China wanted a swift diplomatic victory in the Pacific. But the region's leaders won't be rushed".

In essence in the CCP rush to have Pacific Island nations sign up to a regional economic and security agreement, the CCP appears to have misread how things work with these island nations, basically they are like a "family" to each other and on major issues work on consensus agreements.

Perhaps the CCP did this on purpose, to time it with the recent Australian election (and perhaps to force a change of government, or perhaps sensed a vacuum which could be exploited to their advantage)? If they did then it appears to have back-fired on the them.

Particularly as the new Australian Govt wasted no time in engaging with their PI counterparts. And as been reported in the ABC article and other Pacific media the CCP way of forcing the local media out or banning them outright or preventing them from asking questions did not go down well with the locals. Another heavy handed authoritarian CCP approach that raises suspicion (and alarm) of their true intentions (disguised by bringing economic "gifts"). So another embarrassing rushed CCP foreign policy failure being played out for no real gain?

'When it was leaked, it was dead': Here's why China's Pacific deal fell over

China talks a lot about consensus, but has done very little to seek it in the Pacific, writes foreign affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic.

www.abc.net.au

As I mentioned in a previous post the Pacific Island Forum members will meet (in July) and this time with NZ and Australian representation ... this is the time for discussions and reaching consensus, which is both the Pacific way. I think we can predict the outcome of that already ...

The last word needs to go to former Cook Islands Prime Minister Henry Puna who is the current Pacifc Islands Forum Secretary General. In the ABC article he outlines the expectations of the Pacific Islands Forum that the CCP need to respect (and reading between the lines he gives the CCP a bit of a serve - as in put down).

As as Henry Puna highlights, and has been said by Pacific leaders such as Fiji's Frank Bainimarama on Monday, it's the likes of climate change (in particular the fear of rising sea levels or from storm surges or tsunamis etc, that can swamp these low-lying islands) which is their greatest concern, not being pawns in a game of geo-political chess that the CCP is trying to impose on them in order to outplay the US, Australia, NZ etc, when it comes to a (potential) war against Taiwan.

If China wants to play a constructive role in this area, perhaps they could provide assistance in these fields or better still (from a Pacific Islands point of view) undertake real change in terms of the "world leading" pollution they are producing and environmental degradation.

Publications | Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat

www.forumsec.org

Edit: typo/links

 

[Redlands18]

Penny Wong announces new partnership with Samoa, Australia to donate patrol boat

Australia will enter a new eight-year human development partnership with Samoa and will deliver a new Guardian-class patrol boat to the Pacific country, as the Foreign Minister affirms Australia's commitment to climate action.

abc.net.au

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong has announced a new 8 year partnership with Samoa as well as a replacement for the Guardian class Patrol Boat that was written off after running aground last year.

 

[recce.k1]

Penny Wong announces new partnership with Samoa, Australia to donate patrol boat

Australia will enter a new eight-year human development partnership with Samoa and will deliver a new Guardian-class patrol boat to the Pacific country, as the Foreign Minister affirms Australia's commitment to climate action.

abc.net.au

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong has announced a new 8 year partnership with Samoa as well as a replacement for the Guardian class Patrol Boat that was written off after running aground last year.

And to back up those maritime security concerns quoted in the ABC article, looking forward to when the RAN can start deploying their new Arafura class offshore patrol vessels into the region to work in with the PI nation's Guardian class Patrol Boats and their personnel and officials. Another win for Aussie diplomacy and presence, doing a security task that the locals and officials actually will want and greatly appreciate!

 

[recce.k1]

Talking about maritime events, providing maritime assistance to the Solomon Islands of late includes the Australian Govt donating two more 9.2m aluminium long boats (now totaling six) to the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force (RSIPF) Maritime Division "to support maritime capability and assist patrol and response operations". Again the ADF are taking a lead role building up people-to-people liaisons and co-operation with their Solomon Islands counterparts (excellent "soft-power" in action)!

Small boats, big gesture of friendship | Defence News

Two new vessels have been handed over to the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force to support its maritime capability.

news.defence.gov.au

Also RAN are doing good with Armidale-class patrol boat HMAS Ararat rescuing 17 people last week from a RSIPF police vessel that broke down at sea (article calls it a "Stabbi", so presumably a "Stabi-Craft 2900 Super Cab" of which a number of them were donated by RAMSI in 2015)?

Solomons police officers rescued after three days lost at sea

Seventeen people, who had been missing at sea in Solomon Islands for three days, were rescued by an Australian navy ship.

www.rnz.co.nz

'Ready and willing': Australian military personnel retrieve occupants of stricken Solomon Islands police boat

While attention was trained on the federal election, the ADF undertook a mission to rescue a stricken Solomon Islands police boat, as Australia competes with China to remain the island nation's first choice on security.

www.abc.net.au

Meanwhile with the RSIPF's (second) new Guardian-class patrol boat RSIPV Taro undertaking maintenance, USCG Cutter Myrtle Hazard (WPC 1139) undertook patrols of the Solomon's EEZ this week.

Coast Guard Assists in Patrolling Solomon Islands Exclusive Economic Zone

HONOLULU, Hawaii -- The Coast Guard assisted the Solomon Islands this week by patrolling their exclusive economic zone while maintenance was being conducted on the Royal Solomon Islands Police Vessel

www.pacom.mil

 

[ngatimozart]

Them Stabicraft are fairly good boats so must of taken a bit to sink it then. They were originally designed for operating in and around Foveaux Strait, the 3rd roughest piece of water in the world, the lower part of South Island of NZ, and Stewart Island NZ. Foveaux Strait runs between the two. Crossed it four times by sea and fed the fish (sea sick) each time. Cook Strait is the 2nd roughest piece of water in the world, and I have crossed it quite a few times by sea, but never fed the fish.

 

[Rock the kasbah]

Them Stabicraft are fairly good boats so must of taken a bit to sink it then. They were originally designed for operating in and around Foveaux Strait, the 3rd roughest piece of water in the world, the lower part of South Island of NZ, and Stewart Island NZ. Foveaux Strait runs between the two. Crossed it four times by sea and fed the fish (sea sick) each time. Cook Strait is the 2nd roughest piece of water in the world, and I have crossed it quite a few times by sea, but never fed the fish.

Don't forget she's a tinny
Take the engine off it and sink in a cyclone
We did it all the time
Wrap the engine in a tarp once the blow has passed
Away we go

 

[Rock the kasbah]

Don't forget she's a tinny
Take the engine off it and sink in a cyclone
We did it all the time
Wrap the engine in a tarp once the blow has passed
Away we go

If it was a big blow we'd bury the outboard but always put oil in the fuel
She'd run rich but when you are in the deep blue a bloody 2 stroke was favorable over a 4
Sometimes reliability rules

 

[Xthenaki]

Coast Guard Assists in Patrolling Solomon Islands Exclusive Economic Zone

HONOLULU, Hawaii -- The Coast Guard assisted the Solomon Islands this week by patrolling their exclusive economic zone while maintenance was being conducted on the Royal Solomon Islands Police Vessel

www.pacom.mil

[/URL]

USCGC Myrtle Hazard is based at Guam and the closest to the Solomon Islands. Its here I would like to mention the potential for another forward base that the USCG could reestablish and that is Pago Pago. At present they have an office here and call on Honolulu to send a cutter if its needed - a voyage that takes about nine days using a Freedom cutter

Pago Pago is a natural sheltered deep water harbour with some wharves and supporting infrastructure. In the mid-sixties when I visited the USCGC Cape Providence was based here. There are two large Tuna canneries operating here both US owned and supported by a large tuna fishing fleet.
Pago Pago international airport lies on a coastal belt near but outside the harbour.

If the stand off with China deteriorates the US may well consider reestablishing a military base here greatly benefiting Australia and especially NZ.
Western Samoa and Niue are relatively close with Tonga and Fiji a bit further south. An interesting prospect if the US expand to this area.

 

[htbrst]

USCGC Oliver Henry and “maybe” HMS Spey were both denied clearance to dock and restock at the Solomon Islands after the recent exercise in the area. The article doesn’t mention if the Au or NZ ships also tried but they may have been longer ranged/closer to home.

Report: US Coast Guard ship denied port call in Solomons

A U.S. Coast Guard cutter was recently unable to get clearance for a scheduled port call in the Solomon Islands, according to reports.

www.navytimes.com

 

[Redlands18]

Papua New Guinea Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko reveals plans for security agreement with Australia and potentially New Zealand - ABC News
The PNG Foreign Minister has revealed that they may looking at the possibility of a formal security deal with Australia and possibly NZ. Probably a good move for them with what has happened in the Solomons.
Also Australia has recently signed an agreement to help PNG rebuild its Defence Air Wing.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Papua New Guinea Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko reveals plans for security agreement with Australia and potentially New Zealand - ABC News
The PNG Foreign Minister has revealed that they may looking at the possibility of a formal security deal with Australia and possibly NZ. Probably a good move for them with what has happened in the Solomons.
Also Australia has recently signed an agreement to help PNG rebuild its Defence Air Wing.

PNG's foreign minister's name, sounds more Ukrainse than Papua.

But personally i believe this is a positive development for both countries and the whole region. Some years ago a chinese delegation visited PNG, and they acted like they own the whole place, in a quite colonial way. Maybe PNG has learned from this unpleasant experience.

 

[buffy9]

Papua New Guinea Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko reveals plans for security agreement with Australia and potentially New Zealand - ABC News
The PNG Foreign Minister has revealed that they may looking at the possibility of a formal security deal with Australia and possibly NZ. Probably a good move for them with what has happened in the Solomons.
Also Australia has recently signed an agreement to help PNG rebuild its Defence Air Wing.

It certainly seems like PNG is hedging it's bets after the China-Solomon Islands agreement. There has never really been a significant motive for a formal security agreement since PNG's independence, though the entry of China into the region (as a neighbour) seems to have made the reality of great power competition very real for the new government.

I'm interested in how Australia and New Zealand are going to approach this. On the one hand, PNG's current security issues are primarily internal (both localized violence and their own Bougainville challenge), with some issues potentially bringing Australia in as a peacemaker depending on the spirit of the agreement. On the other hand, pressing too strongly to secure naval and air access for Australia and New Zealand risks dragging PNG deeper into great power competition, which may run counter to its interests.

Perhaps it may end up just being a written framework for the cooperation that already exists, including between the PNGDF, ADF and NZDF.