Official Chengdu J-20 Discussion Thread

[Air Force Brat]

I thought only 3 were flying with 3 more almost ready from one source I read.thats what I mean by "will soon have 6 test aircraft flying".. true the PAK-FA debuted earlier but it has been some 14 months now and we're still awaiting more J-20s to make an appearance. Heaven forbid something happens to that lone example with no apparent backups evident.

I think I did read that T-50 #3 had its first flight recently, and I have begun to wonder why we haven't seen 2002. On the Sino D forum there were rumors of one airplane flying with a different set of engines with shiny nozzles, but IMHO 2001 likely had an engine swap, they have had a very active flight test program with over 60 flights. It is very interesting to note the similarities and differences as these birds are all billed as 5th gen A2A platforms. I would withhold to many judgements until we see a flying display such as the T-50 put on at Macs 2011, but there was some low altitude turning and burning, as well as a few good pulls to the vertical last week at the factory.

 

[Rasp814]

Rian.ru ran an article, iirc. Check the Flanker Exports thread, it's in there.



Nope. China requested both, but was told that the earliest they could have either was after the Russian Airforce received their orders. For the S-400 this was said to be sometime post 2017. No deals were made about it, and no specific dates were set.

The article was a misreport like many other Russian defence news sources which claims they have made sales.

俄新网RUSNEWS.CN北京3月9日电 记者阿列克谢•叶菲莫夫报道：中国国防部新闻事务局向俄新社透露，俄罗斯媒体关于中国准备与俄罗斯签署48架苏-35战机采购合同的报道与事实不符。

中国国防部在书面答复中说明：“近年来，中俄全面战略协作伙伴关系保持健康稳定发展的势头，双方各领域合作进展顺利，成果丰硕。俄中军事合作作为俄中战略协作伙伴关系的重要组成部分，一直在正常开展并不断取得成果，但有关媒体所称‘中俄双方已就购买48架苏-35战机达成一致'一事是没有事实依据的。”

3月6日，俄罗斯《生意人报》援引俄罗斯军事工业综合体一名消息人士的话称，俄罗斯和中国已就48架苏-35战机的供应合同基本达成一致，合同总额约达40亿美元。

To sum up this article. It basically says China and Russia's defense sectors have formed a great strategic partnership over the years. But the basis that China is interested or wishes to purchase 48 su-35 is based on no factual data.

I don't have enough posts to cite a source. But you can google it or baidu it to find the original source.

 

[Feanor]

To sum up this article. It basically says China and Russia's defense sectors have formed a great strategic partnership over the years. But the basis that China is interested or wishes to purchase 48 su-35 is based on no factual data.

I don't have enough posts to cite a source. But you can google it or baidu it to find the original source.

I too am skeptical to be honest. On the one hand, Sukhoi is certainly desperate to sell the Su-35S, and as it stands, there are no other major customers. It also makes a certain amount of sense with the timelines. On the other hand China has been pursuing greater and greater independence in manufacturing, and Russia has been increasingly reluctant to sell tech to China. I suppose we will have to wait and see.

 

[Rasp814]

Exactly, China is more interested in subsystems. Things like the 117s engines and thrust vectoring technology would be valuable to China. The su-35s itself offers little to China.

 

[Haavarla]

If China plan to produce more J-11, then the Su-35S platform should be of interest.
The Su-35 has a new advanced FCS and has some improvments over the vanila Flankers.
Like airframe strengthning for heavier load up, stronger engines and more fuel.

 

[Air Force Brat]

If China plan to produce more J-11, then the Su-35S platform should be of interest.
The Su-35 has a new advanced FCS and has some improvments over the vanila Flankers.
Like airframe strengthning for heavier load up, stronger engines and more fuel.

I would concur with that as it would provide additional capability, without having to wait for further developement and would provide some needed capitol to the sellers. There are some pictures out lately of a panel being removed from the J-20s belly, as well as 6 or 7 guys standing on the left aft wing of the J-20 just ahead of the left horizonatal stab looking at something?

 

[Air Force Brat]

I too am skeptical to be honest. On the one hand, Sukhoi is certainly desperate to sell the Su-35S, and as it stands, there are no other major customers. It also makes a certain amount of sense with the timelines. On the other hand China has been pursuing greater and greater independence in manufacturing, and Russia has been increasingly reluctant to sell tech to China. I suppose we will have to wait and see.

Siegecrossbow, one of the mods on Sino Defense has just posted that the second J-20 may be rolled out soon, any body on here have any news? That may tell us, whether the design of the J-20 is set or if they have they done any tweaking.

 

[gf0012-aust]

That may tell us, whether the design of the J-20 is set or if they have they done any tweaking.

I can't see any future frame being the same, the tweaks may well be internal, but not improving the breed would go against all of chinas recent history of small batching and conducting iterative development on major platforms

 

[colay]

I can't see any future frame being the same, the tweaks may well be internal, but not improving the breed would go against all of chinas recent history of small batching and conducting iterative development on major platforms

Is the small batching approach workable when developing an aircraft, specially one which is supposed to be a prototype? Wouldn't they need more than the one flying airframe to test different aspects of the design as well,as,mitigate the risk of losing your sole example.

 

[Air Force Brat]

I can't see any future frame being the same, the tweaks may well be internal, but not improving the breed would go against all of chinas recent history of small batching and conducting iterative development on major platforms

Yes, I agree, I really expected to see the second J-20 six months ago, so the small batching formula seems to be the operative plan of the day, thats why the second J-20 will be of interest, I do agree that the changes will likely be more tweaks than general design changes, but the small batching as you have suggested does leave the door open for whatever changes they feel would be advantageous.

 

[Air Force Brat]

Is the small batching approach workable when developing an aircraft, specially one which is supposed to be a prototype? Wouldn't they need more than the one flying airframe to test different aspects of the design as well,as,mitigate the risk of losing your sole example.

Well that was my initial thought as well, with only one airframe, I do notice that even though they have been gradually opening up the flight envelope as of late, much of the flying we have seen in pix and videos has been rather conservative, and there was a lot of discussion on Sino Defense, our sister forum about whether this is an actual prototype of a flying test bed? In the flying aspect, there hasn't been any very high alpha manuevering, and no really fast passes or word of any sonic booms etc etc, associatted with the test flying? So I would say that gf0012, is likely correct when he asserts the small batch, as that would allow them the flexibility to make whatever changes, and this is a unique aircraft in many aspects.

 

[colay]

Well that was my initial thought as well, with only one airframe, I do notice that even though they have been gradually opening up the flight envelope as of late, much of the flying we have seen in pix and videos has been rather conservative, and there was a lot of discussion on Sino Defense, our sister forum about whether this is an actual prototype of a flying test bed? In the flying aspect, there hasn't been any very high alpha manuevering, and no really fast passes or word of any sonic booms etc etc, associatted with the test flying? So I would say that gf0012, is likely correct when he asserts the small batch, as that would allow them the flexibility to make whatever changes, and this is a unique aircraft in many aspects.

It seems to be a very leisurely approach to development and testing. I'm just trying to reconcile this with the aggressive IOC date some ranking officials have mentioned.

 

[Air Force Brat]

It seems to be a very leisurely approach to development and testing. I'm just trying to reconcile this with the aggressive IOC date some ranking officials have mentioned.

Well and thats just the crux of the matter, flight testing, especially of a completely new aircraft is something the PLAAF may not have a lot of experience at, especially something on the level of the J-20, as they have in the past manufactured or modified other folks aircraft. As Dr. Song wrote in the aerodynamic thesis for the J-20 around 2001, the long coupled canard as a primary pitch control involves a very complex flight control system, and lots of rather involved thinking. The F-35 reminds us just how many parameters, flight characteristics, materials, all have to come together to have an operable aircraft platform, discounting avionics and weapons systems. So with just one flying aircraft at present any predictions of IOC are quite premature IMOH? If we take into consideration that gf0012 is correct about the small batch testing, they may make changes?

 

[Waylander]

Maybe they are just showing this prototype for entertainment and are actively testing a handfull of aircrafts somewhere in the desert?

A little bit fog and mirrors is not out of question IMHO.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Is the small batching approach workable when developing an aircraft, specially one which is supposed to be a prototype?

for china it is, and they've shown a willingness to do that across a number of weapons systems.

china in 2010+ is in a similar position to the US of the 1950's. They're cashed up, they're moticated, they are an industrial power, and they have the political will and intent to go out and burn money to aggressively implement change

Wouldn't they need more than the one flying airframe to test different aspects of the design as well,as,mitigate the risk of losing your sole example.

not necessarily. they can test flight management on other platforms, they can test weapons systems through existing aircraft, they can simulate a lot of the handling issues prior to build etc...

no different to the CATBird role (and where everyone is heading for efficiency reasons)

there's no reason to not think that they have a flight of these squirreled away near Mongolia etc and are happily flying around the desert doing trials. there's no reason that the US (eg) has happy snaps of sister aircraft flying around but has not gone public for her own reasons.

very often INT is not about public declaration of what "we" know so for a number of reasons, bet they strategic, political etc....

for all we know the US could be aware of a short squadron running around but has also elected not to say much as it suits them. There are any number of reasons why "the crows" (ewarfare community) and "the spooks" (INT or "2" shops) don't "crow" about what they know

 

[Air Force Brat]

for china it is, and they've shown a willingness to do that across a number of weapons systems.

china in 2010+ is in a similar position to the US of the 1950's. They're cashed up, they're moticated, they are an industrial power, and they have the political will and intent to go out and burn money to aggressively implement change




not necessarily. they can test flight management on other platforms, they can test weapons systems through existing aircraft, they can simulate a lot of the handling issues prior to build etc...

no different to the CATBird role (and where everyone is heading for efficiency reasons)

Right, and while there was a lot of discussion on our sister forum, Sino Defense about the ex Varyag, and how China couldn't field a single carrier, but would need at least one or two others. I pointed out that the Varyag just by cruising out and "parking herself in the Straights of Taiwan, is a very potent PR weapon. I believe they have announced that she would be officially inducted into the fleet in August. The Chinese are not hindered by a "carrier doctrine", or the old "thats the way we've always done it" I think we impose to much of our Western thinking into our analysis of what they are thinking. They have trotted the J-20 out and done a lot of flying this past year, in what I have humorously dubbed the Chengdu daily air show. In no way am I minimizing what they have accomplished with the J-20, it is a very uniquely Chinese aircraft, and has been brought to flying status and some measure of reliability. You are exactly right when you say they are cashed up, motivated, and have the manufacturing capability. So as you stated, they can afford to get this right, it wouldn't surprise me greatly to see them purchase those Su35s, to have the right now capability, as well as access to that nice radar and those engines with TVC. The Russians might go for this in order to capitalize developement and production of Pak Fa as Feanor had suggested on the Flanker thread?

 

[colay]

for china it is, and they've shown a willingness to do that across a number of weapons systems.

china in 2010+ is in a similar position to the US of the 1950's. They're cashed up, they're moticated, they are an industrial power, and they have the political will and intent to go out and burn money to aggressively implement change




not necessarily. they can test flight management on other platforms, they can test weapons systems through existing aircraft, they can simulate a lot of the handling issues prior to build etc... h

no different to the CATBird role (and where everyone is heading for efficiency reasons)

Right, and while there was a lot of discussion on our sister forum, Sino Defense about the ex Varyag, and how China couldn't field a single carrier, but would need at least one or two others. I pointed out that the Varyag just by cruising out and "parking herself in the Straights of Taiwan, is a very potent PR weapon. I believe they have announced that she would be officially inducted into the fleet in August. The Chinese are not hindered by a "carrier doctrine", or the old "thats the way we've always done it" I think we impose to much of our Western thinking into our analysis of what they are thinking. They have trotted the J-20 out and done a lot of flying this past year, in what I have humorously dubbed the Chengdu daily air show. In no way am I minimizing what they have accomplished with the J-20, it is a very uniquely Chinese aircraft, and has been brought to flying status and some measure of reliability. You are exactly right when you say they are cashed up, motivated, and have the manufacturing capability. So as you stated, they can afford to get this right, it wouldn't surprise me greatly to see them purchase those Su35s, to have the right now capability, as well as access to that nice radar and those engines with TVC. The Russians might go for this in order to capitalize developement and production of Pak Fa as Feanor had suggested on the Flanker thread?

The Chinese are denying the whole Su-35 issue..
Google Translate

 

[gf0012-aust]

The Chinese are denying the whole Su-35 issue..
Google Translate

not sure why you're quoting me as I was talking about J20 and in general Chinas weapons system/platform development - not SU-35

 

[colay]

not sure why you're quoting me as I was talking about J20 and in general Chinas weapons system/platform development - not SU-35

I didn't realize I was GF.. it was in response AFB's response about the possible sale of Su-35s. to China.

 

[PhilTheBeloved]

Right, and while there was a lot of discussion on our sister forum, Sino Defense about the ex Varyag, and how China couldn't field a single carrier, but would need at least one or two others. I pointed out that the Varyag just by cruising out and "parking herself in the Straights of Taiwan, is a very potent PR weapon. I believe they have announced that she would be officially inducted into the fleet in August. The Chinese are not hindered by a "carrier doctrine", or the old "thats the way we've always done it" I think we impose to much of our Western thinking into our analysis of what they are thinking. They have trotted the J-20 out and done a lot of flying this past year, in what I have humorously dubbed the Chengdu daily air show. In no way am I minimizing what they have accomplished with the J-20, it is a very uniquely Chinese aircraft, and has been brought to flying status and some measure of reliability. You are exactly right when you say they are cashed up, motivated, and have the manufacturing capability. So as you stated, they can afford to get this right, it wouldn't surprise me greatly to see them purchase those Su35s, to have the right now capability, as well as access to that nice radar and those engines with TVC. The Russians might go for this in order to capitalize developement and production of Pak Fa as Feanor had suggested on the Flanker thread?

Aircraft carriers are not a priority for China. J-20 has plenty of combat radius, especially when couple with aerial refuelers. Varyag is for study only, not for operation. Once fusion power is a reality in a few decades, fusion powered fighter planes would have unlimited combat radius.