NZDF General discussion thread

[RubiconNZ]

Interesting interview today, I take it for a win as
a) this discussion is taking place on MSM
b) they got Mick Ryan to do the interview. (Rather than trot out NZ defence experts whom are normally disarmament “experts” in sheep’s clothing)

New Zealand 'very much in the picture' of conflict between China and West

 

[Gooey]

... and more MSM on Defence.

The RNZ Details does a voice over of a North & South article which is behind a paywall. This 25 Feb 2023 podcaste for 20 min (apologies if this is old or a repeat), In Our Defence written by Pete McKenzie:

Joining our army, navy or air force was once an assured way to build a career, gain marketable qualifications and save for a mortgage while living in subsidised housing. But with unfit houses and poor pay, the ranks are thinning dangerously — to the point where the most basic operations of a modern defence force are at risk.

The Detail's Long Read: In Our Defence

In Our Defence by Pete McKenzie: The defence force is spending up billions, but not on personnel's languishing wages or housing. Now, its ranks are thinning.

www.rnz.co.nz

Within:
* emphasis on housing for soldiers (I had not realised that Waiouru is relatively empty now) and the impact of Op Protect
* CDF sticks his neck out for consistent and realistic funding plus the (my words) 'inexperience' of politicians and their 2 year time reference
* our current manning crisis and stretch for a Company deployment
* the deteriorating strategic situation

 

[Rob c]

emphasis on housing for soldiers (I had not realised that Waiouru is relatively empty now) and the impact of Op Protect
* CDF sticks his neck out for consistent and realistic funding plus the (my words) 'inexperience' of politicians and their 2 year time reference

When I grew up my dad a a shop in Waiouru in the 1950's and the place was humming. Now the complete south end of the army town is gone, just bare empty streets with out houses. But if you look at the numbers of serving personnel the airfoce has been stripped the most, when I was in (1960's to 80's there was almost 5000 personal, now it is less than 2400.

 

[ngatimozart]

When I grew up my dad a a shop in Waiouru in the 1950's and the place was humming. Now the complete south end of the army town is gone, just bare empty streets with out houses. But if you look at the numbers of serving personnel the airfoce has been stripped the most, when I was in (1960's to 80's there was almost 5000 personal, now it is less than 2400.

When I left the RNZAF in mid 1982 its strength was 4,300 and the RNZN 2,500. Now the RNZN I believe is ~2,000. We used to get a weekly printout from FRED (Flammin' Ridiculous Electronic Device) at DPU in Porirua that included the strength of the 3 services.

Interesting interview today, I take it for a win as
a) this discussion is taking place on MSM
b) they got Mick Ryan to do the interview. (Rather than trot out NZ defence experts whom are normally disarmament “experts” in sheep’s clothing)

New Zealand 'very much in the picture' of conflict between China and West

Yes I saw that on YouTube and it was quite interesting.

On another note the "disobedient" actions of a Army Reserve SNCO in Hawkes Bay during the cyclone has received praise from the Battalion CO. The SSgt ignored Civil Defence orders.

Soldiers say they disobeyed orders and saved lives in Esk Valley

Two soldiers say they disobeyed Civil Defence orders so they could rescue people trapped in Esk Valley during Cyclone Gabrielle.

www.rnz.co.nz

I heard a talking head on the radio news before going on about the RAN SSN deal is going to be bad for NZ because it'll stoke up tensions with the PRC. He's talking CCP propaganda. I will try and find the link and I didn't catch his name.

 

[spoz]

Good on them, used their knowledge and initiative. However, always easy for those not involved to second guess decisions, although those actually in the know don’t seem to be doing any such thing.

 

[ngatimozart]

Prof Robert Ayson has written an article in Incline, New Zealand's Biggest Policy Headache with the AUKUS Submarines Plan that looks at how the ADF SSN acquisition will impact upon NZ. And it's not what many would think - the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act 1987, but:

"... New Zealand’s big headache with the submarine deal is off in another direction. The Virginia Class vessels and the missiles they carry would put Australia towards the front of US war plans should armed conflict erupt with China somewhere in the East China Sea-Taiwan Strait-South China Sea area. In such an event, parts of Australia’s Southeast Asian neighbourhood are close to the firing line whether those neighbours like it or not. In the meantime, the deeper integration of American force elements in Australia (along with the rotational Royal Navy presence) increases the importance of down under targets for China’s own military planners.​

​

"As Australia gets ready to sends its submariners and engineers to train up with their American and British counterparts (an early part of the AUKUS submarine cooperation), New Zealand has some properly big strategic thinking to do. As I have argued recently in a long article, and in a short synopsis, in the event that Australian forces end up fighting in a war with China, trans-Tasman alliance obligations might spring into action for New Zealand."​

The long article he refers to is New Zealand’s alliance obligations in a China-Australia war, that discusses the alliance requirements in far greater depth. This article is well worth the read and goes into detail the history of NZ and Australian defence agreements.

Another article, by Christian Novak, on Incline New Zealand's Management of its Strategic Assets: In Need of Recalibration? discusses NZ resilience, especially WRT fuel security. In it Novak claims that there is a strong disconnect between MFAT and the politicians and queries whether the MFAT officials are being overly cautious. I don't think that they are, especially when the article states that "... only eight days of onshore reserve cover for diesel, and 4 days of reserve cover for other transport fuels are held by NZ." If that is indeed the case, we are in a sorry state of affairs.

Very recent Anne-Marie Brady on NZ / PRC relations. Definitely worth the watch.

 

[Gracie1234]

Interesting interview with the PM. It is surprising how much effort he puts into not answering the question on China, 19 mins in. This is a very different response that what our partners are providing to their public.

Hipkins denies Government was out of touch with now-dumped policies

"I don't think, necessarily, [we were] out of touch."

www.newshub.co.nz

 

[At lakes]

Prof Robert Ayson has written an article in Incline, New Zealand's Biggest Policy Headache with the AUKUS Submarines Plan that looks at how the ADF SSN acquisition will impact upon NZ. And it's not what many would think - the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act 1987, but:

"... New Zealand’s big headache with the submarine deal is off in another direction. The Virginia Class vessels and the missiles they carry would put Australia towards the front of US war plans should armed conflict erupt with China somewhere in the East China Sea-Taiwan Strait-South China Sea area. In such an event, parts of Australia’s Southeast Asian neighbourhood are close to the firing line whether those neighbours like it or not. In the meantime, the deeper integration of American force elements in Australia (along with the rotational Royal Navy presence) increases the importance of down under targets for China’s own military planners.​

​

"As Australia gets ready to sends its submariners and engineers to train up with their American and British counterparts (an early part of the AUKUS submarine cooperation), New Zealand has some properly big strategic thinking to do. As I have argued recently in a long article, and in a short synopsis, in the event that Australian forces end up fighting in a war with China, trans-Tasman alliance obligations might spring into action for New Zealand."​

The long article he refers to is New Zealand’s alliance obligations in a China-Australia war, that discusses the alliance requirements in far greater depth. This article is well worth the read and goes into detail the history of NZ and Australian defence agreements.

Another article, by Christian Novak, on Incline New Zealand's Management of its Strategic Assets: In Need of Recalibration? discusses NZ resilience, especially WRT fuel security. In it Novak claims that there is a strong disconnect between MFAT and the politicians and queries whether the MFAT officials are being overly cautious. I don't think that they are, especially when the article states that "... only eight days of onshore reserve cover for diesel, and 4 days of reserve cover for other transport fuels are held by NZ." If that is indeed the case, we are in a sorry state of affairs.

Very recent Anne-Marie Brady on NZ / PRC relations. Definitely worth the watch.

The limited storage of fuel in NZ is very concerning and I believe there is more stored in Japan, I may be wrong not sure. But would this situation not make a good case for the purchase of capable naval escorts to ensure supply of fuel.

 

[Alberto32]

Our second P8 is in it's way home.

 

[Stuart M]

The limited storage of fuel in NZ is very concerning and I believe there is more stored in Japan, I may be wrong not sure. But would this situation not make a good case for the purchase of capable naval escorts to ensure supply of fuel.

NZ governments have an absolute aversion to criticising China, and whilst the headline is often decarbonisation, I don't think they are completely blind to the adverse effect of disrupted supply chains that can happen as a result of the CCP's misadventures.


New Zealand Hydrogen Scenarios Report June 2022 (mbie.govt.nz) PDF File

Hydrogen could also offer a strategic opportunity for New Zealand to become less reliant on fossil fuel imports for key sectors, particularly transport, which creates future resilience against fuel security risks. It is not without its challenges, however. There are competing technologies which could offer lower cost emissions reductions.

New Zealand hydrogen innovations making global waves | Newshub

Our first green hydrogen plant has recently opened in Taupō using electricity generated by geothermal power.

This week, work began on the country's first refuelling station.

Remarkably just four stations will unlock the entire North Island freight route network.

I should think that the obvious uses for this is ammonia production for use in fertilisers (or explosives), fuel for use in heavy transport and agricultural machinery.. eg tractors.

So whilst I think the closedown of the Marsden Point Refinery was an error, the silver lining is that it does force NZ to explore domestic alternatives that reduce its reliance on overseas energy supply and the associated consequences of that reliance.

 

[kiwi in exile]

The latest APDR has a short article about intergration of Kongsbergs NSM with a skyguardian UAV (and therefore most likely a Sea Guardian).Not a lot of specifics, but did say this...

A Predator MQ-9B carries 6,000lbs of fuel (2,700kg) that allows it to fly with sensors but without weapons for about 28 hours. With two NSMs (combined weight of 900kg) carried on the hard points closest to the fuselage this would reduce to 18 hours and still give a range of 5,500km – a formidable range/ payload combination in anyone’s terms. If a single NSM is released, the Predator flight control system has no difficulty coping with an asymmetric configuration – and frequently flies sensor missions in that fashion.

this would be a good unmanned economic credibly armed maritime surveilance solution for NZ. However killer drones...

 

[Stuart M]

Interesting interview today, I take it for a win as
a) this discussion is taking place on MSM
b) they got Mick Ryan to do the interview. (Rather than trot out NZ defence experts whom are normally disarmament “experts” in sheep’s clothing)

New Zealand 'very much in the picture' of conflict between China and West

But it seems that NZ opposition is not happy about it.

New Zealand opposition concerned by AUKUS | The Canberra Times | Canberra, ACT

Furthermore, there is the question of whether the deal antagonises China as it seeks to create security from the regional superpower, rather than alongside it.
The NZ National party's foreign affairs spokesman Gerry Brownlee holds concerns on both those fronts.
Asked directly if AUKUS makes New Zealand safer, Mr Brownlee was clear.


"What I don't like is the concept that we just seem to be dividing the world.
"Where it was once the communists, the European communist bloc, and the rest of us, with a degree of uncertainty about the very closed China.
"(We're at a) position now where we're saying, 'well, Russia has got itself in a hell of a mess. NATO is quite strong. The Chinese are wanting to assert themselves a little bit more on the world stage ... so they must be the enemy and we've got to worry about them'.
"I'm not sure that's the right sort of thinking.

I think this is an accurate picture of significant sections of the Nationals and could point at their preferred defence/foreign policy stance if they next in government.
Note; Gerry Brownlee is standing down at the next election.

 

[ngatimozart]

But it seems that NZ opposition is not happy about it.

New Zealand opposition concerned by AUKUS | The Canberra Times | Canberra, ACT

I think this is an accurate picture of significant sections of the Nationals and could point at their preferred defence/foreign policy stance if they next in government.
Note; Gerry Brownlee is standing down at the next election.

Yes, unfortunately they are still firmly wedded to the "be nice to CCP/PRC economic imperative", without considering the wider strategic implications. Brownlee is of the John Key school of thought and Key recently claimed that we should be keeping really nice with the CCP/PRC.

 

[Stuart M]

Yes, unfortunately they are still firmly wedded to the "be nice to CCP/PRC economic imperative", without considering the wider strategic implications. Brownlee is of the John Key school of thought and Key recently claimed that we should be keeping really nice with the CCP/PRC.

And not just as it relates to the CCP, but im not sure if they have considered how this stance places NZ with regard to the US, and more especially Australia, if they gain government with this as policy.

 

[Aerojoe]

Yes, unfortunately they are still firmly wedded to the "be nice to CCP/PRC economic imperative", without considering the wider strategic implications. Brownlee is of the John Key school of thought and Key recently claimed that we should be keeping really nice with the CCP/PRC.

And don’t forget the new leader considers John Key a mentor and comes from a business background strongly focused on China trade as paramount.

 

[ASSAIL]

And don’t forget the new leader considers John Key a mentor and comes from a business background strongly focused on China trade as paramount.

I know one liners are verboten but really! this is a simple case of strategic “eyes wide shut”.

 

[Stuart M]

I know one liners are verboten but really! this is a simple case of strategic “eyes wide shut”.

Well he's hardly the only one, Former PMs Bolger and Clark are in the same camp. Given this it would not be presumptuous to assume that the 'intuitional' political structure of NZ has a eyes wide shut problem, and I don't think this will go away until some fairly unappealing options are before NZs immediate future, the public are aware of it, and those who support current beliefs are invited to consider other career options.

 

[Gracie1234]

Has anyone else signed up for the online meetings next week? I only have one of the links.

Public webinars

We invite all those interested on the future of Defence to attend our public webinars.

These webinars on the future of Defence are your opportunity to hear from those leading the Defence Policy Review work and ask questions.

You can submit your questions in advance to [email protected]

Register for Tuesday, 28 March at 12pm-1pm here.(external link)

Register for Wednesday, 29 March at 5.30pm-6.30pm here.(external link)

You can attend more than one webinar, but you will need to register for both.


Mar 29, 2023 05:30 PM in Auckland, Wellington

Link: Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Defence Policy Review webinar. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.

 

[Stuart M]

NZ looking at a role in a 2nd pillar membership of AUKUS.

New Zealand flags AUKUS interest, China raises concern | The Canberra Times | Canberra, ACT

Defence Minister Andrew Little says scoping talks are under way.
"We have been offered the opportunity to talk about whether we could or wish to participate in that pillar two aspect of it. I've indicated we will be willing to explore it," Mr Little said in Wellington on Tuesday.

"(AUKUS membership) would be about the kind of technology ... needed to protect defence personnel," he said.
"Usually domain awareness, so surveillance technology, and radio technology that allows us to do that."
The talks come after Mr Little met with top US security official Kurt Campbell earlier this month.

I had a feeling something was in the wind on this when AUKUS first came out in public and the NZ high commissioner in Canberra said favourable things about NZ Involvement in non-nuke technology.

This also explains politicians, former PMs/academics getting their retaliation in statements on AUKUS out first.

 

[Gracie1234]

My view is, i do not see us being invited to be part of the club without a commitment to lift our capability and prioritise the investment required. As a note to those who say funding is not there, the govt is spending nearly $1B a week more than was spent 7 years ago.
Not wanting to get into politics, it is always a question of what do we want to do.
I attending the webinar today, nothing particular new there. Keen on others thoughts.