NZDF General discussion thread

[Nighthawk.NZ]

Incidentally can anyone speak to the status of the Mistrals SAM’s NZ has (had) in service. Could they be given to Ukraine if we still have them…

They were very low on numbers and would be past their use by date now if we still had them. They were put in storage some time back, but now don't show up on any lists/documents that I can find and or see.

 

[Teal]

I believe that there is merit in both suggestions. What I think would be an option is the acquisition of four Airbus A400M or KHI C-2 for the strategic airlift capability and three A330 MRTT for the strategic PAX / MEDEVAC / VIP and AAR capability. I would go with new builds rather than used ones because we will use them for a long time and the price point difference is that great at the moment if you look at the WOLC. The other point is that a Airbus A400M or KHI C-2 acquisition would negate an extra C-130J-30 acquisition because both are capable of rough field operations.

I am steering away from two A330MRTT or any other capability because we have seen the problems that two B757, two frigates, two OPV, inadequate numbers of SH-2G(NZ) Seasprite helicopters have caused in the last 15 years. So it has to be a minimum of three A33MRTT and anything else because of the rule of threes.

IF NZ acquired a MRTT capability it would be for NZ requirements first and then be as a force multiplier for allied and coalition operations when required. I don't see any political will from either major party to acquire such an asset because of the cost. The sticker price alone causes major conniptions within the party hierarchy and there would be very strong resistance from Treasury.

Don't presume that the current geostrategic and geopolitical situation will miraculously change the inherent NZ pollies aversion to defence spending. Vladimir & Jinping would have to be marching up Courtney Place with the AKs swinging from both arms, ahead of armoured columns, before the Kiwi pollies would consider a sudden large increase in defence spending to meet the perceived threat.

Just as an addition to the comments above re airframes , can I please add into the mix the lighter end , I feel we need a C235 size aircraft, maybe 6 as a min. Firstly, The smaller size would allow us to service all the smaller strips throughout the Pacific and NZ that we havent been to since the loss of the Andovers. The Pacific is our front yard and getting back to the isolated communities is a must . Only a few years ago on Cyclone relief (Vanuatu I think, more coffee needed) the Wx had made the airstrips were unsupportable to large aircraft like C130 so we sent B200s, what a joke as a "mover " of pers or freight. Secondly, Im sure the only reason the C130Hs have served us so well is the fact they were supported by the Bristols, Daks and Andovers over time. They would take some of the "Tactical" load off the Js.
And before we go down the ...RAAF getting rid of C27s , please no, Ive been told the cost per hour is not far off the C130 and the loading systems are not compatible , hence the RAAF are getting rid of.
Side bar , Love the KHI C2 , I was able to look around it when it popped into Wellington , very capable piece of kit , they would compliment the C17 perfectly.

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Just as an addition to the comments above re airframes , can I please add into the mix the lighter end , I feel we need a C235 size aircraft, maybe 6 as a min. Firstly, The smaller size would allow us to service all the smaller strips throughout the Pacific and NZ that we havent been to since the loss of the Andovers. The Pacific is our front yard and getting back to the isolated communities is a must . Only a few years ago on Cyclone relief (Vanuatu I think, more coffee needed) the Wx had made the airstrips were unsupportable to large aircraft like C130 so we sent B200s, what a joke as a "mover " of pers or freight. Secondly, Im sure the only reason the C130Hs have served us so well is the fact they were supported by the Bristols, Daks and Andovers over time. They would take some of the "Tactical" load off the Js.
And before we go down the ...RAAF getting rid of C27s , please no, Ive been told the cost per hour is not far off the C130 and the loading systems are not compatible , hence the RAAF are getting rid of.
Side bar , Love the KHI C2 , I was able to look around it when it popped into Wellington , very capable piece of kit , they would compliment the C17 perfectly.

Yes, by the time the 757 are due to be replaced the Kawasaki C2 would be more mature which was part of the argument for not selecting them for the Hercules replacement from articles on the subject.

Given not just the payload but the speed I would of thought a step up from the C130 H too.

 

[ASSAIL]

Just as an addition to the comments above re airframes , can I please add into the mix the lighter end , I feel we need a C235 size aircraft, maybe 6 as a min. Firstly, The smaller size would allow us to service all the smaller strips throughout the Pacific and NZ that we havent been to since the loss of the Andovers. The Pacific is our front yard and getting back to the isolated communities is a must . Only a few years ago on Cyclone relief (Vanuatu I think, more coffee needed) the Wx had made the airstrips were unsupportable to large aircraft like C130 so we sent B200s, what a joke as a "mover " of pers or freight. Secondly, Im sure the only reason the C130Hs have served us so well is the fact they were supported by the Bristols, Daks and Andovers over time. They would take some of the "Tactical" load off the Js.
And before we go down the ...RAAF getting rid of C27s , please no, Ive been told the cost per hour is not far off the C130 and the loading systems are not compatible , hence the RAAF are getting rid of.
Side bar , Love the KHI C2 , I was able to look around it when it popped into Wellington , very capable piece of kit , they would compliment the C17 perfectly.

IIRC the reason why the RAAF selected the Spartans over the C235 was precisely that the standard C130 cargo pallets were compatible, as were the very similar glass cockpit and engines.
The stated reason why their “battlefield lifter” role was suspended was their extreme vulnerability.

 

[ngatimozart]

Just as an addition to the comments above re airframes , can I please add into the mix the lighter end , I feel we need a C235 size aircraft, maybe 6 as a min. Firstly, The smaller size would allow us to service all the smaller strips throughout the Pacific and NZ that we havent been to since the loss of the Andovers. The Pacific is our front yard and getting back to the isolated communities is a must . Only a few years ago on Cyclone relief (Vanuatu I think, more coffee needed) the Wx had made the airstrips were unsupportable to large aircraft like C130 so we sent B200s, what a joke as a "mover " of pers or freight. Secondly, Im sure the only reason the C130Hs have served us so well is the fact they were supported by the Bristols, Daks and Andovers over time. They would take some of the "Tactical" load off the Js.
And before we go down the ...RAAF getting rid of C27s , please no, Ive been told the cost per hour is not far off the C130 and the loading systems are not compatible , hence the RAAF are getting rid of.
Side bar , Love the KHI C2 , I was able to look around it when it popped into Wellington , very capable piece of kit , they would compliment the C17 perfectly.

If you read back through the thread you will see the arguments pro and con twin prop airlifters and the reasons why. Long story short, they don't add value or capability because they can't lift a viable payload to the region. We had that problem with the Andovers. That's why the C-13s are now our go to tactical air lifters. Secondly, for access to remote airfields we can use rotary wing capability.

 

[KiwiRob]

Just as an addition to the comments above re airframes , can I please add into the mix the lighter end , I feel we need a C235 size aircraft, maybe 6 as a min. Firstly, The smaller size would allow us to service all the smaller strips throughout the Pacific and NZ that we havent been to since the loss of the Andovers. The Pacific is our front yard and getting back to the isolated communities is a must . Only a few years ago on Cyclone relief (Vanuatu I think, more coffee needed) the Wx had made the airstrips were unsupportable to large aircraft like C130 so we sent B200s, what a joke as a "mover " of pers or freight. Secondly, Im sure the only reason the C130Hs have served us so well is the fact they were supported by the Bristols, Daks and Andovers over time. They would take some of the "Tactical" load off the Js.
And before we go down the ...RAAF getting rid of C27s , please no, Ive been told the cost per hour is not far off the C130 and the loading systems are not compatible , hence the RAAF are getting rid of.
Side bar , Love the KHI C2 , I was able to look around it when it popped into Wellington , very capable piece of kit , they would compliment the C17 perfectly.

The ferry range for an Andover is about 2500km, how did we safely operate them to the Islands with any kind of usable cargo?

 

[Rob c]

The ferry range for an Andover is about 2500km, how did we safely operate them to the Islands with any kind of usable cargo?

I went from Ohakea to Butterworth in an Andover once as a trial run for a concept of a pre deployment set up crew for 75 sqn. With 15 guy's and their luggage the route was 'due to range restrictions" Ohakea, Auckland over night, Norfolk island, Brisbane overnight , Mount Isa, Darwin over night, Bali, Singapore overnight and finally Butterworth. As we had a prop fault and stopped at Auckland for 24 hours extra. The whole thing wound up over two days late and was never tried again, But it was a bloody good tourist trip with good parties on the overnight stops , the only complaint was from the taller members , (which included me), Was that the the Andover seating was designed for people that were vertically challenged and the infight service was notable by it's absence.
However for all the faults of the Andover it did give us the capability to be practiced in short rough field operations. Watching an Andover do a short takeoff or landing from a grass runway showed a capability that even a herk could not match.

 

[ngatimozart]

I went from Ohakea to Butterworth in an Andover once as a trial run for a concept of a pre deployment set up crew for 75 sqn. With 15 guy's and their luggage the route was 'due to range restrictions" Ohakea, Auckland over night, Norfolk island, Brisbane overnight , Mount Isa, Darwin over night, Bali, Singapore overnight and finally Butterworth. As we had a prop fault and stopped at Auckland for 24 hours extra. The whole thing wound up over two days late and was never tried again, But it was a bloody good tourist trip with good parties on the overnight stops , the only complaint was from the taller members , (which included me), Was that the the Andover seating was designed for people that were vertically challenged and the infight service was notable by it's absence.
However for all the faults of the Andover it did give us the capability to be practiced in short rough field operations. Watching an Andover do a short takeoff or landing from a grass runway showed a capability that even a herk could not match.

Like you I am tall and my jaunts on the Andover, Dakota, Friendship, and Devon had the same issues. Did an indulgence trip on the para Andover from Whenuapai to Woodbourne once with she who must be obeyed and ankle biter in tow. She who must be obeyed wasn't to keen on the seating arrangement. Sitting sideways with netting for safety wasn't her cup of tea.

 

[Rob c]

Like you I am tall and my jaunts on the Andover, Dakota, Friendship, and Devon had the same issues. Did an indulgence trip on the para Andover from Whenuapai to Woodbourne once with she who must be obeyed and ankle biter in tow. She who must be obeyed wasn't to keen on the seating arrangement. Sitting sideways with netting for safety wasn't her cup of tea.

At least they did not leak like the Freighter, a great aircraft in summer but winter in the rain was another story, as the heating seldom worked and siting backwards with water dripping on you never qualified as a rousing experience.

 

[ngatimozart]

Waka Kotahi - Ministry of Transport have a consultation out on New Zealand’s freight and supply chain system. They have released a paper with an Online survey. The survey period is from today until 3rd June 2022.

New Zealand freight and supply chain issues paper | Te rautaki ueā me te rautaki whakawhiwhinga o Aotearoa - Te Manatū Waka Ministry of Transport - Citizen Space

 

[kiwi in exile]

Waka Kotahi - Ministry of Transport have a consultation out on New Zealand’s freight and supply chain system. They have released a paper with an Online survey. The survey period is from today until 3rd June 2022.

New Zealand freight and supply chain issues paper | Te rautaki ueā me te rautaki whakawhiwhinga o Aotearoa - Te Manatū Waka Ministry of Transport - Citizen Space

Thanks for posting.
Most of this seems to focussed on domestic freight (which is still important but perhaps less relevant to this thread).
We need to have a security strategy that addresses this and maybe look at sovereign capability like Australia. Not just in terms of defence (ammunition for example) but other areas too. Biofuels

 

[kiwi in exile]

Sorry. Double post

 

[Boardgamer88]

So this came across my yt feed this morning and was wondering how likely/credible this was?

Australia is being warned Chinese ships and aircraft will arrive in Solomon Islands within four weeks - following the signing of a deal between the two nations.

Got to be honest, I would really like this to be fearmonging for the election

 

[Gooey]

So this came across my yt feed this morning and was wondering how likely/credible this was?

Got to be honest, I would really like this to be fearmonging for the election

Experience would suggest that this will be the case. Therefore, confirming the Worst case Course of Action from the NZ Def Assessment and making redundant any MoD response if it’s using the usual Wellington time lines.

Today on RNZ Morning Report, Minister Mahuta just repeating that NZ is disappointed.

No other, ‘so what’ about kinetic capability, deterrence, and rearmament.

 

[ngatimozart]

So this came across my yt feed this morning and was wondering how likely/credible this was?

Got to be honest, I would really like this to be fearmonging for the election

It's Sky News Australia, a Murdoch mouthpiece so I would take it it with a large grain of salt. They tend to sensationalize things and aren't exactly known for letting facts stand in a way of a story. After all they are the Australian version of Fox News.

However, the possibility exists that they could be correct and if indeed if what they claim comes to pass, it would actually backfire hugely on the CCP / PRC because it would turn any perceived threat into an actual one. With an election campaign where national security is one of the main planks, such an action would most likely be of help to the GOTD rather than the current opposition. Western logic would tell me that the CCP / PRC wouldn't do such an action until after the election, however the CCP works to its own logic and that is that it is the master of all and that anything that is in opposition to it, be it another country, a religion, a virus (e.g., COVID-19), any other political party, philosophy, political system etc., is to be opposed, crushed, and cancelled, ensuring that the CCP is the only political force, source of information, belief, thought, and resources. Absolutely no opposition is tolerated. So in their idealised world the logic may well dictate that a show of CCP / PRC military might on Australia's eastern seas will cowl them and show the Aussies who's boss. ROTF PMSL as if that's gonna happen with the Aussies. More like the one fingered salute.

Mind you I would like it to happen especially if Xian H-6Ks from the PLANAF were involved because it would make the pollies in Wellington who have shivers looking for spines (thank you Paul Keating) take fright and actually do something.

 

[spoz]

Kiwi PM in an interesting interview with the. BBC: Working with assertive China a must - New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern. There’s also a video. She may be being diplomatic, but I don’t think she gets it. As a number of well informed China watchers have said over the years (Book Review: How China Loses: The Pushback Against Chinese Global Ambitions - Australian Institute of International Affairs for example), China needs to know where the bounds of it ability to be assertive are. One might have to “work with” them, we all get that, but her view that it (and the Ukraine) is not about democracy or totalitarianism is, at least in my view, wrong - it is always about that.

 

[Stuart M]

Kiwi PM in an interesting interview with the. BBC: Working with assertive China a must - New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern. There’s also a video. She may be being diplomatic, but I don’t think she gets it. As a number of well informed China watchers have said over the years (Book Review: How China Loses: The Pushback Against Chinese Global Ambitions - Australian Institute of International Affairs for example), China needs to know where the bounds of it ability to be assertive are. One might have to “work with” them, we all get that, but her view that it (and the Ukraine) is not about democracy or totalitarianism is, at least in my view, wrong - it is always about that.

What Cindy says and does, like most politicians, are two different things. NZ has just agreed to an intelligence sharing agreement with Japan

Japan, New Zealand in talks to share information and intelligence - Nikkei Asia

Now this is fine, and it's really is not a cost impedance, but nor does it impose on NZ great commitment.

But it isn't useful to turn this into a war of ideology, she said - refusing to frame it as a conflict between autocracies and democracies.

This ,from your BBC link, on the other hand is just delusional, but it does feed well into the Labour parties, and the NZ loony left's, long held pacifism and aversion to the armed forces. Of course admitting that there is a serious issue would force an admission there there must be greater commitment to the armed forces capabilities to conduct war; so they wont ever admit to it, thus avoiding the issue.

Her arse must have splinters from all the fence sitting, but I do take some comfort that those splinters will become uncomfortable enough to move NZ of the fence eventually. CCP waships and H6K's in the Solomon's might do it, as well as an increasing public alarm and pressure at the thought of unpleasant reality intruding on the Kiwi self described paradise.

 

[Todjaeger]

Her arse must have splinters from all the fence sitting, but I do take some comfort that those splinters will become uncomfortable enough to move NZ of the fence eventually. CCP waships and H6K's in the Solomon's might do it, as well as an increasing public alarm and pressure at the thought of unpleasant reality intruding on the Kiwi self described paradise.

A Judas cradle might be more effective on getting certain people to move their... positions.

TBHT I suspect that a PRC base be it naval/military or a "civilian" facility is unlikely to see warships, at least not until the PRC presence is already well entrenched (possibly literally), rather I suspect it would be used more to support various 'gray' PRC assets. Their fishing fleets and 'coast guard' for instance. Using a base in the Solomons as a sort of stepping stone, fishing fleets could intrude into the Realm of NZ, but also into a number of the S. Pacific island nations. For those island nations which are reliant upon fisheries for either sustenance and/or economic resources, having a PRC fishing fleet essentially strip fish an area could have a devastating impact. It could also provide further openings and opportunities for the PRC to exploit, via things like loans to purchase food, trade agreements where impacted islands begin importing food from the PRC, etc.

As I see it, there are a potential threats across a broad spectrum.

 

[ASSAIL]

Kiwi PM in an interesting interview with the. BBC: Working with assertive China a must - New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern. There’s also a video. She may be being diplomatic, but I don’t think she gets it. As a number of well informed China watchers have said over the years (Book Review: How China Loses: The Pushback Against Chinese Global Ambitions - Australian Institute of International Affairs for example), China needs to know where the bounds of it ability to be assertive are. One might have to “work with” them, we all get that, but her view that it (and the Ukraine) is not about democracy or totalitarianism is, at least in my view, wrong - it is always about that.

I have scant knowledge about internal NZ politics but from an outsiders POV every signal she sends seems to be an exercise in virtue signalling and faux empathy.
it may be honourable to search for good intent but that’s not realpolitik and can lead to humiliation and a job at the UN.
Recognition of a changing world where autocracies ignore the common good is a first step but until the NZ public, who currently seem to be at one with their PM, accept that change the status quo will remain and Chinese expansionism unnoticed.

 

[Stuart M]

A Judas cradle might be more effective on getting certain people to move their... positions.

TBHT I suspect that a PRC base be it naval/military or a "civilian" facility is unlikely to see warships, at least not until the PRC presence is already well entrenched (possibly literally), rather I suspect it would be used more to support various 'gray' PRC assets. Their fishing fleets and 'coast guard' for instance. Using a base in the Solomons as a sort of stepping stone, fishing fleets could intrude into the Realm of NZ, but also into a number of the S. Pacific island nations. For those island nations which are reliant upon fisheries for either sustenance and/or economic resources, having a PRC fishing fleet essentially strip fish an area could have a devastating impact. It could also provide further openings and opportunities for the PRC to exploit, via things like loans to purchase food, trade agreements where impacted islands begin importing food from the PRC, etc.

As I see it, there are a potential threats across a broad spectrum.

I'm of the view that all options are on the table for the CCP. Given NZ relationship to Australia, and Australia's political positions, equipment and relationship with the US, UK, India and Japan I think that just catering to just a 'grey' level of capability out of the Solomon's would be to undermine that 'grey' activity, it just does not work without much higher level of capability to back it up.
I think this is more so now than even two years ago, the Ukraine war has shown that the West still has some spine, and I think that will cause the CCP to double down on its efforts, albeit with some effort at greater sophistication.

More importantly, any effort they put in must be long lasting and persistent to have effect, part of that is the CCP's armed forces, but I also expect them to systematically undermine and hollow out the Solomon islands and others capacity for any pretence of self government, and this agreement looks like the key to achieving that.