Redlands18
Well-Known Member
I can’t get the picture of Adern standing on the Beach telling the Invasion Force they can’t invade yet as we have not yet finished the DCP
NZDF General discussion thread
- Thread starter NZLAV
- Start date
In the current govt, Defence has very low priority.
Please don't put ideas into the pollies heads nor encourage such thoughts.
To be fair, I am of the view that the DEFMIN is not the problem: it's his Cabinet colleagues and I wouldn't be surprised if he's been bashing his head against a brick wall of "don't wanna know; don't care" from them. Of all the Cabinet ministers only he and one other have the actual nous and ability to do their jobs properly. The rest are completely disorganised and promoted well above their abilities.
Whiplash34
Member
Another Official Information Act request to Minister Ron Mark....
Future Air Mobility Capability - C-130H(NZ) Hercules Replacement - a Official Information Act request to Ron Mark
Outside of the DEFMIN and his office, who needs to ‘authorise’ the content of the DCP before its release? Would that be a select committee of sorts....?
Future Air Mobility Capability - C-130H(NZ) Hercules Replacement - a Official Information Act request to Ron Mark
Outside of the DEFMIN and his office, who needs to ‘authorise’ the content of the DCP before its release? Would that be a select committee of sorts....?
Cabinet is the final authority. Select Committees can only authorise their own reports.
Whiplash34
Member
Rgr that. Thanks Mr C.
Simon Ewing Jarvie
Active Member
I have received the response to my OIA regarding the Defence Capability Plan Review. Unfortunately, Ron Mark's office sent the reply directly to me rather than via fyi.org.nz. I have requested they remedy that so everyone can see it. However, I have used the response to post a blog article if you wish to see my analysis of what's going on. It's based not only on the OIA info but also on what I've been hearing in the OSINT space. Capability Delayed is Capability Denied
Interesting piece & no doubt some salient conclusions being made there. I am absolutely sure we can expect NO announcements before the budget... it just simply is too risky for the pollies, especially in such a convoluted coalition. Yes delays to key decisions can be expected - hope like hell the C130 is not one of them, and given it should actually have multi-party agreement as even the greenies should see the key use of a C130 in HADR.. but I worry they see them still flying so decide to kick the can down the road. A delay to the B757 replacement could probably be manageable enough... Navy will lose IPVs as already (unfortunately) signalled and Frigate replacement will be pushed out. Army, well not sure there. Another obvious easy deferral is base facilities.... sigh!
That everyone can see it is obviously what they are a tad sensitive about.
Good analysis there Simon. I'm hearing that same things. At best all I expect is part of the FAMC to be outlined sometime before the end of the current term. On current polling the term after that is what really concerns many of us.
I also believe that no announcements may be made before the budget but with the large capital outlay for the P8's Treasury may be playing down further expenditure in the short term. With the emphasis on Climate change a complete change in direction from the 2016 Defence review may be under consideration. If budget cuts are part of the future planning I just hope that this will not happen..
Nice piece @Simon Ewing Jarvie and welcome to the forum. I get the impression that they are running around like headless chooks at the moment, not just in the defence portfolio, but across the board. However it's defence that will pay the price. I served with people who have grandkids who are in buildings that we worked in and in some case that our parents worked during WW2. My oldest grandkid is 16 and if he decides to join up in the next 18 months or so, odds on he'd be in buildings that his great granddad worked in. My biggest concern at the moment is the Hercules replacement and the delay in that. To me that is the most urgent undertaking.
Assoc Prof Anne-Marie Brady's full submission to the Justice Select Committee Inquiry into Foreign Interference. It is highly informative and well worth taking the time to read because she explains in detail how the CCP infiltrate and influence foreign bodies politic and govts. She is a well known expert on China and famous for her Magic Weapons: China's political influence activities under Xi Jinping which has miffed Beijing somewhat, for some strange reason. That too is a thoroughly recommended read.
Her submission will most likely be ignored by a political elite who are thoroughly enamoured, and likely infiltrated by the CCP, with the two main parties and most of the minors probably in receipt of Chinese largesse either directly or indirectly. Both major parties, Labour and National, keep falling over themselves trying to beat a path to Beijing's doors about some trade this or trade that, neglecting everything else. All they see is the holy and glorious, glittering dollar. Or is it yuan?
I would not be surprised in the slightest to see some attempted backsliding on the Huawei ban at some stage. Huawei have launched an all out PR offensive in the media attempting to deny that they have any connection to the PLA, MSS, the Chinese Govt and CCP. They very conveniently omit to mention that "China’s National Intelligence Law (2017) obligates Chinese citizens and companies to assist China’s intelligence work." (Brady, 2019, Submission to Justice Select Committee).
Her submission will most likely be ignored by a political elite who are thoroughly enamoured, and likely infiltrated by the CCP, with the two main parties and most of the minors probably in receipt of Chinese largesse either directly or indirectly. Both major parties, Labour and National, keep falling over themselves trying to beat a path to Beijing's doors about some trade this or trade that, neglecting everything else. All they see is the holy and glorious, glittering dollar. Or is it yuan?
I would not be surprised in the slightest to see some attempted backsliding on the Huawei ban at some stage. Huawei have launched an all out PR offensive in the media attempting to deny that they have any connection to the PLA, MSS, the Chinese Govt and CCP. They very conveniently omit to mention that "China’s National Intelligence Law (2017) obligates Chinese citizens and companies to assist China’s intelligence work." (Brady, 2019, Submission to Justice Select Committee).
kiwipatriot69
Active Member
If logic dictates, it would make no sense for labour or the greens to continue this path, if they are serious about climate change , or 'rules based order' defence role is key. No planes or available ships for a HADR response, surveilance of our eez , peacekeeping or anti piracy, training exersizes even ,how on earth does one fulfill one's policies? Hopes and prayers?
First - Assoc.Prof Ann-Marie Brady opens our eyes to the REAL China. and then your appraisal on our Political major parties is BANG ON! Very sobering - NZ is running a very thin line between China and the US. We need to decide and state where we stand before it is too late.
kiwipatriot69
Active Member
Honestly Usa is sending mixed messages of late, one minute he's insulting Nato allies, telling them to pull their equal weight to USA, threatens war with North Korea then is best mates,then he talks isolationism, then he's saber rattling with Iran and Venezuela? Even if USA offers an alternative to huawei/ they haven't, I hope Trumps nowhere it.
Well we have to deal with that and work with what we have.
Unfortunately at the moment there are two hardline neocons in Bolton and Pompeo as National Security Adviser and SEC STATE respectively, who are pushing the agenda vis a vis both Iran and Venezuela at the moment. Trump always had a thing about Iran anyway and he's given hardliners on both sides ammunition for their causes. The thing is that Iran is not an existential threat to US national security. The US have been dragged into that mess by other actors vis a vis UK, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Oman, UAE etc. They've all played the US, its ego and it's insecurities.
In the NZ context our political elite and bureaucratic elite have to get their heads out of their collective asses, wake up, smell the roses and see the world for what it really is, not some ideological nirvana, but a wild and dangerous place with many traps for the unwary and unprepared. It means that we have to make some difficult, expensive decisions and side with old friends and allies, plus be prepared to work closely with FEYES in all aspects (INTEL, military etc), Japan, Singapore and South Korea, along with India. Unfortunately that won't happen unless a PRC battle group sails into Wellington harbour with guns blazing. Be to late then.
In this coalition government trade offs for support will be made for key objectives. If support is not forthwith for your policy (Defence aquisition) it may be deferred or a less preferred option given as the only alternative. Who knows - No one wants a "log jam" further down the track if you have to wait.
Ann-Marie gets my vote for the 2019 New Zealander of the Year. Her paper Magic Weapons is a punch in the face to the NZ political establishment. Which needs it.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
The Brady report is a wake up for sure wrt to Xi especially. As Canada's election approaches, the Conservative candidate, Andrew Scheer, is outlining some of his policies. One is a disengagement from China and closer alignment with the US. I agree with this and considering our location, it is an easy decision compared to countries living in the Asia Pacific region. Still, for New Zealand and Australia, the same decision makes sense because China under Xi is a big problem and he isn't going away anytime soon. Hopefully the other political leader problem will be gone in 2020.
What comes out of the 2019 defence review remains to be seen but priorities could change in certain areas. Key defence roles as mentioned by you above should be covered. One area of concern would be the frigate replacement and the need to fund a minimum of three vessels.(An upgrade to the 2016 defence review).
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I am certain if Anne-Marie Brady were to do a paper on Chinese influence in Canada, it would conclude that Canada is as bad or worse than New Zealand. Anyone in Vancouver or Toronto shouldn't require a paper to figure this out however.