NZDF General discussion thread

[recce.k1]

T68 & Novascotiaboy - possibly, as in remotely possibly, perhaps a case could eventually be made for T-6's (or a few AT-6's) for JTAC training roles within NZ (as these roles are conducted overseas for NZ personnel), except that for the few times that JTAC training would be conducted in NZ I'm not sure one could justify the costs for such an occassionally used role.

As Mr C states NZ is surrounded by ocean, and NZ couldn't easily deploy COIN aircraft overseas even if it had them. I'd also hazard a guess due to the proliferation of SAM's and the need for state of the art ECM that RNZAF operating in a COIN role are long gone (since Vietnam). Although I seem to recall in the days of the RNZAF operating the BAC Strikemaster they would be loaded up with rockets and bombs for mock attacks but (apart from where could they be employed realsitically) I'd suggest that's because of the limitations of the capabilities/technology that came with that aircraft. When the Macchi MB339 replaced them the emphasis seemed to be LIFT and simulated precision strike training (although I understand the Macchies were mostly FFBNW but could conduct simulated attacks - I'm sure someone else can correct me here on this).

If money were to be found I'd rather that money be put towards fast-air with martime strike capabilities - a worthy asset for the region NZ looks after. Anything is possible if defence spending was higher (2% etc).

 

[Todjaeger]

They already know the answer. It isn't and they aren't. They would have very very low operational utility.

We are surrounded by the Pacific ocean and not a continental land-mass with a COIN / LAS requirement. Nor are we likely to ever wish to deploy such a capability to distant continents to assist in conducting such operations. Furthermore there are better options for the same kind of money that would be far better equipped to deal with the emerging regional threatscape.

Therefore I struggle to foresee a relevant employment context for short range prop powered armed trainers in the NZDF like the AT-6B or A-29.

There is a potentially relevant and useful context where armed prop trainers could be used within the NZDF, though that could potentially be accomplished by either arming the current trainers, or adding a few more specifically armed trainers to the inventory.

The use I have in mind would be in/around NZ providing NZDF personnel training opportunities and experience either to operate with air support, or in air defence vs. hostile air. Otherwise there is no logical reason to purchase COIN/CAS props. They are not fast enough or have the proper avionics to provide an air defence or maritime strike capability, and they lack the range for NZ to reasonably deploy them to a distant theatre of operations to support NZDF or coalition personnel, and this was if the RNZAF had the correct skill set, which is does not.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

A day to go to budget day so what is the collective thinking about the funding for NZDF?

I do not feel that the former governments plan for $20 billion of investment will stand under the Labour led coalition.

My guess is the P3 purchase will be pushed off, a C130J purchase will happen and limited spending will be allocated for constabulary, southern ocean and conservation protection.

I hope I am wrong but so far this government seems far too interested in social spending than ensuring protection for the country and its interests.

 

[MrConservative]

I do not feel that the former governments plan for $20 billion of investment will stand under the Labour led coalition.

My guess is the P3 purchase will be pushed off, a C130J purchase will happen and limited spending will be allocated for constabulary, southern ocean and conservation protection.

I hope I am wrong but so far this government seems far too interested in social spending than ensuring protection for the country and its interests.

Basically nothing for Defence. $324 million over four years for the NZDF’s operating budget which is just treading water. You guessed right about the P-3 replacement and emphasis on social spending.

This government will do nothing. They are hiding this failure by saying that there was not the $20B set aside. What tosh - the $20B out to 2030 was always going to come out of forward appropriations and projected surpluses. NZ First and Ron Mark have failed at the first hurdle.

But as I said a few months ago it is better for them to do nothing in the short term because that way they will not stuff up their acquisitions like the last time Labour had the Treasury benches.

 

[chis73]

Pretty much what I expected from the Budget - not much. The good news is that there is increased operating funding (partly from this government and partly from National's DWP 2016 decisions). The bad news - no movement on any of the looming big acquisition projects (especially new RNZAF aircraft). Ron Mark claims that the $20b funding is 'under review'. Hmmm. The P-3 replacement I see has now been classed as a new significant fiscal risk by Treasury.

To be honest I wasn't expecting any major surprises in the documents (as they only show previously agreed funding). As yet, no major decisions have been announced - so the money won't show in the forward forecasts. The same applied to National's budget last year. I don't know if you can call it a failure - pretty much it's no change from National. The $20b still exists in the ether.

 

[Xthenaki]

Pretty much what I expected from the Budget - not much. The good news is that there is increased operating funding (partly from this government and partly from National's DWP 2016 decisions). The bad news - no movement on any of the looming big acquisition projects (especially new RNZAF aircraft). Ron Mark claims that the $20b funding is 'under review'. Hmmm. The P-3 replacement I see has now been classed as a new significant fiscal risk by Treasury.

To be honest I wasn't expecting any major surprises in the documents (as they only show previously agreed funding). As yet, no major decisions have been announced - so the money won't show in the forward forecasts. The same applied to National's budget last year. I don't know if you can call it a failure - pretty much it's no change from National. The $20b still exists in the ether.

 

[Xthenaki]

Disappointing this budget but with the emphasis on election promises and being seen to support these we can only hope Defence will receive a lot more consideration next time round. It is very much the unknown that becomes scary. Is there going to be a change to cheaper types of capital equipment (more but less potent forms). Are our allies going to give us an ultimatum. (Upgrade or be left behind). I personally think that some of the expected.defence financing has gone to top up Winston Peters foreign affairs and diplomatic budgets. Its a wonder United Nations didnt receive a top up as well.

 

[Todjaeger]

Disappointing this budget but with the emphasis on election promises and being seen to support these we can only hope Defence will receive a lot more consideration next time round. It is very much the unknown that becomes scary. Is there going to be a change to cheaper types of capital equipment (more but less potent forms). Are our allies going to give us an ultimatum. (Upgrade or be left behind). I personally think that some of the expected.defence financing has gone to top up Winston Peters foreign affairs and diplomatic budgets. Its a wonder United Nations didnt receive a top up as well.

An area of concern for me is whether or not NZ's allies would be inclined to issue such an ultimatum or not. I can unfortunately see the potential for some to quietly decide to reduce their engagement with NZ and leave the Kiwis behind, without actually coming out and stating that it was going to be a matter of policy going forward.

With the US and now Australia starting to field the CEC I could easily see the US and Oz sidelining or declining NZDF contributions that lack CEC. This is one area where postponing and/or selecting less costly (and capable) options, or even just bespoke designs, can seriously impact the credibility and relevance of the NZDF and NZ as a whole, on the world stage.

 

[recce.k1]

Crikey just been reading the msm and politcal blogs, even the msm are critical of the budget - nevermind defence minimal increase, a number of other critical areas such as health had underwhelming increases despite the rhetoric in the lead up to the budget, biosecurity slashed at a critical time - pork barrelling for the horse racing industry the winner. Suspect the next few days will see a rising storm of criticism even from their favorite sector followers (who are already claiming the budget spending plans were nowhere near enough). Frankly I'd be amazed if this coalition government survives until the end of this year particulary if public (and their gushing media) support collapses.

Was reading the DefMin's budget statement (not worth linking too), the poor fellow is on another planet - polishing a turd would be a good description of what he wrote. Thank goodness last year's (different) Govt budget committed a $982m boost with $576m in capex for 2017/18 + $406m operational funding increase over the next 4 years - presumably that hasn't been cut (or has that been included somehow into this budget's $368m operating funding increase over the next 4 years)?

 

[Ocean1Curse]

Crikey just been reading the msm and politcal blogs, even the msm are critical of the budget - nevermind defence minimal increase, a number of other critical areas such as health had underwhelming increases despite the rhetoric in the lead up to the budget, biosecurity slashed at a critical time - pork barrelling for the horse racing industry the winner. Suspect the next few days will see a rising storm of criticism even from their favorite sector followers (who are already claiming the budget spending plans were nowhere near enough). Frankly I'd be amazed if this coalition government survives until the end of this year particulary if public (and their gushing media) support collapses.

Was reading the DefMin's budget statement (not worth linking too), the poor fellow is on another planet - polishing a turd would be a good description of what he wrote. Thank goodness last year's (different) Govt budget committed a $982m boost with $576m in capex for 2017/18 + $406m operational funding increase over the next 4 years - presumably that hasn't been cut (or has that been included somehow into this budget's $368m operating funding increase over the next 4 years)?

One thing commercial media don't think about is the quality of corporate NZ balance sheets. The cash levels of Fontera and the Crown is the highest it's ever been. And the balance sheets are incredibly strong. This is why we're seeing significant money being released by Fontera for share buybacks in the last couple of years. It's much more likely if companies are going to hit there consensus earnings in the next two quarters, they're just going to keep rallying aggressively on earnings caused by management, and that's extra information above earnings.

So your going to get a lot of people looking back saying the markets are expensive and overbought. The problem is New Zealand is very different now vs times in the past where we see prices at these levels, and I'm talking about increased prices for big defence items have moved higher even from the 1st of January. It's this that's scarring everybody. Because picking tops in this kind of market when earnings revisions are going up is very, very dangerous. We do have to be very very careful with overvalued markets in general but with defence in particular. This is why it's no good thinking of things as cheap or expensive. It's best to think about it as, is it justified. Is a CEC justified, is a third frigate justified, is reequipping RNZAF justified. All any one has to do is look out side New Zealand to see that it is, or read up on DT to see that yes, it is justified.

 

[recce.k1]

Although the Defence CapEx in the budget was disappointingly rather limited ($42m), recent comments made to Radio NZ by the DefMin were somewhat "interesting" as it refered to the new government's defence procurement review that is underway.

Quote: "That review might conclude that we need a little less than $20bn, it might conclude that we need more ... if it means stretching it to 2035 to make it work and that's the best thing, that's what I'll recommend."

Read into that what you will (it's somewhat meaningless afterall, mind you could have been worse) but a Newsroom analysis of the budget (for Defence) gives us a "target" as to the government's intentions for the review.

Quote: "Some capital decisions are likely to be made soon after the Budget, with the Government facing a mid-year deadline to make a call on whether to purchase P-8 Poseidon aircraft to replace the existing P-3 Orions".

So there we have it, and the "credibility" of not only the Labour coalition government, but also that of coalition partner the "pro-defence" NZ First party (and its DefMin) will be tested very soon in relation to the decision (or not) to proceed (or further postpone) the P-8 acquisition.

Presumably if it does go ahead, it will appear as a line item in next year's budget (hence the non-appearance this time around may not necessarily be seen as a negative)? If I heard things correctly today the Finance Minister actually has a sizeable sum of money that is yet to be allocated for general CapEx ($1.4bn? Can someone clarify)?

 

[MrConservative]

Quote: "Some capital decisions are likely to be made soon after the Budget, with the Government facing a mid-year deadline to make a call on whether to purchase P-8 Poseidon aircraft to replace the existing P-3 Orions".

So there we have it, and the "credibility" of not only the Labour coalition government, but also that of coalition partner the "pro-defence" NZ First party (and it's DefMin) will be tested very soon in relation to the decision (or not) to proceed (or further postpone) the P-8 acquisition.

The opposition has to now make absolutely clear that it will support the acquisition of the P-8A and will fully commit to funding it as a defence priority.

The other point is that the NZ Govt will not be handing over any cash for a few years and frankly will most likely be the government again during the period when we have to be writing cheques to Boeing.

You are right about it being the real test of credibility.

 

[htbrst]

The opposition has to now make absolutely clear that it will support the acquisition of the P-8A and will fully commit to funding it as a defence priority.
.

There was a bit of nudge from Gerry Brownlee during the parliamentary debate where Ron Mark announced the King Air lease on the 10th of May: Obviously needs to be louder that this though: https://www.parliament.nz/mi/pb/hansard-debates/rhr/combined/HansD_20180510_20180510/

Hon RON MARK: More good news. The prime contractor for the KA350s is Hawker Pacific New Zealand Ltd. With 18 full-time employees working at Ōhākea, Hawker Pacific employ local and New Zealand – wide businesses to provide services and equipment—

Hon Gerry Brownlee: How're we going with the P-8s?

Hon RON MARK: (snipped)

Hon Gerry Brownlee: P-8s are dead.

 

[ngatimozart]

Air Vice Marshall Kevin Short has been appointed CDF wef 1st July 2018. He replaces the current CDF Lieutenant General Tim Keating who will retire after completing his three year term as CDF. AVM Short has been Vice CDF since 2014 and will be promoted to Air Marshall on the day he commences his appointment.

 

[40 deg south]

Basically nothing for Defence. $324 million over four years for the NZDF’s operating budget which is just treading water. You guessed right about the P-3 replacement and emphasis on social spending...

Enhancing Defence Force capability

Here is the actual media release from the Minister. A slightly intriguing comment about resource protection in the Pacific and Southern Ocean make me think the projected Southern OPV may not be dead in the water yet. There is clearly no money allocated in this budget year, but it would take 12 months to run a tender in any case, so that isn't conclusive proof of anything.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Is NZ being cast as a problem for 5 Eyes bt Trump or is this just fake news?

China's communists fund Jacinda Ardern's Labour Party: What the United States Congress was told

 

[MrConservative]

Is NZ being cast as a problem for 5 Eyes bt Trump or is this just fake news?

China's communists fund Jacinda Ardern's Labour Party: What the United States Congress was told

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/transcripts/Hearing Transcript - April 5, 2018_0.pdf

Not fake news though have a read and draw your own conclusions.

In per capita terms for every NZ$1 we spend on defence the Australians are spending NZ$3.40 - they are investing into protecting their future and we are not. Australia is also a trade dependent - export orientated nation and also like NZ plays a white hat role in international diplomacy - but even though it is 5 times larger in population it contributes 17 times more to defence and the regional security architecture than New Zealand.

NZ politicians still have not realised that over the last decade the world has entered into the Second Cold War such is their myopia for looking inward and only think of the outside world as potential tourists and buyers of primary produce.

 

[John Fedup]

Given the massive amounts of cash on hand, hardly a surprise China is in the influence business and Western Democratic governments should be concerned. Rather than worrying about NZ, the US should be more worried about Chinese activities in Canada.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

I agree with that statement John. Penninsular Halifax has a rapidly growing young chinese population that has become very noticable due to the prefered choice of automobiles, BMW, Mercedes and Audi. Very expensive types and lots of them. Even the signage along Spring Garden Road, the busiest east of Montreal, is bilingual english and chinese.

 

[MrConservative]

Given the massive amounts of cash on hand, hardly a surprise China is in the influence business and Western Democratic governments should be concerned. Rather than worrying about NZ, the US should be more worried about Chinese activities in Canada.

Most of the cash is debt fuelled money. The NZ and OZ Reserve Bank Governors have put cautions notes in their recent reports. There is a school of thought in some financial and international relations quarters that the aggressive nationalism both home and abroad is a strategy of necessity to plug cracks in the unbalance growth at all costs economic strategy.

They are trying quite successfully to ween CANAUSNZ away from the US orbit - economically and militarily. The Russians are as well but using different tactics.