North Korean Military.

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
NK has a Hydrogen bomb as far as the war planners are concerned. Check out the cool video showing the ground above the detonation site subsiding after the test.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/...er-says-north-korean-test-was-a-hydrogen-bomb
North Korea's Hydrogen test was convincing, the seismic readings confirmed a weapon of significant size. They now have an effective nuclear weapon capability. It is not known how deploy-able it is, or how reliable. No doubt those are things that are being worked on now.

I don't think there is an end game in this for them, they will just continue to develop more and more weapons and make more and more launches.
 

aussienscale

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
North Korea's Hydrogen test was convincing, the seismic readings confirmed a weapon of significant size. They now have an effective nuclear weapon capability. It is not known how deploy-able it is, or how reliable. No doubt those are things that are being worked on now.

I don't think there is an end game in this for them, they will just continue to develop more and more weapons and make more and more launches.
Getting tense now, South Korea has responded with missile launch of their own !

South Korea responds to North's latest missile test with one of its own

Very dicey few days to come, this could get, for lack of a better word, interesting to say the least !

Cheers
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member

Toblerone

Banned Member
It is not known how deploy-able it is, or how reliable. No doubt those are things that are being worked on now.
According to some people, the US just has to continue pursuing diplomatic avenues, putting ... pressure on NK, as they develop the technology to deploy these devices in warheads, then share the know-how with states that the US consider rogue, like Iran. Meanwhile the north koreans are describing candidly the kind of biblical destruction that they want to inflict on US, Japan etc.

Because they think that's what people who are "right in the head" should do. :rolleyes:
 

Blackshoe

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Well NK having nukes and ICBMs is fact now so are moot. No point throwing a massive hissy fit or starting a war that will generate horrendous casualties. The tasks now would be to reach a peaceful diplomatic arrangement.
The problem with a "diplomatic arrangement" is that one will have to pay billions to the Norks to even start the process, and it will be meaningless unless one is willing to accept that one of the outcomes is forcing the ROK to be subordinated to the DPRK.

People who think the Norks want nukes for deterrence are wrong; as B. R. Myers has said:

The US was never stronger, North Korea never weaker than in 1994, yet even then the fear of an artillery attack on Seoul prevented an air-strike on Yongbyeon. You can put it another way and say that the very success of the nuclear program, the fact that it has gone this far, proves that it was never necessary for North Korea’s security in the first place.

So the question we have to ask ourselves in 2017 is: Why does North Korea risk its long-enjoyed security by developing long-range nukes? Why is it doing the one thing that might force America to attack, to accept even the likelihood of South Korean civilian casualties?

The only plausible goal big enough to warrant the growing risk and expense is the goal North Korea has been pursuing from day one of its existence: the unification of the peninsula. More concretely, North Korea wants to force Washington into a grand bargain linking denuclearization to the withdrawal of US troops. South Korea would then be pressured into a North-South confederation, which is a concept the South Korean left has flirted with for years, and which the North has always seen as a transition to unification under its own control.
And simply put, a process where the world forces the ROK to surrender to the DPRK for "peace" is Sudetenland-level insanity.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
According to some people, the US just has to continue pursuing diplomatic avenues, putting ... pressure on NK, as they develop the technology to deploy these devices in warheads, then share the know-how with states that the US consider rogue, like Iran. Meanwhile the north koreans are describing candidly the kind of biblical destruction that they want to inflict on US, Japan etc.

Because they think that's what people who are "right in the head" should do. :rolleyes:
According to some other people, the USA should risk starting WW3 & should blithely throw away the lives of anything from hundreds of thousands to millions of South Koreans & Japanese (they don't matter: not our kind of people), because it offends them that N. Korea is giving the USA the finger.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
According to some other people, the USA should risk starting WW3 & should blithely throw away the lives of anything from hundreds of thousands to millions of South Koreans & Japanese (they don't matter: not our kind of people), because it offends them that N. Korea is giving the USA the finger.
The only "safe way to perform a preemptive strike" (with the smallest chance of South-Koreans and Japanese slaughtered by North-Korean artillery and missiles) is to directly nuke NK. After all, what can China do against it? But that means that the US will be the first one using nuclear weapons...
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Why was Seoul allowed to grow to the size it now is when it was so close the DMZ and in range of NK artillery? Perhaps a massive relocation should have been underway decades ago. The military option would be more viable had this occurred and assuming NK has not completed the minuturization of its nukes to allow placement on its missiles.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
The big factor that we collectively don't seem to have any information about is what the NK domestic situation is in several key regards. Would the entire leadership follow the commencement of a suicidal war, or will there be a 'this far and no further' point where the leadership is removed? Given what I understand some defectors (higher ups, e.g. Diplomatic positions) have said, I wonder if there would be a point at which there would be mutiny or an uprising? Given the knowledge of the scale of destruction they would face, even a small awareness of it, would no one rebel or use against the top leadership if they were to commence a full war? I would hope so, for many reasons.

I realise that anyone aborting a coup play in the past wouldn't be wise to have that be alluded to in the public domain, even (or especially) by a foreign government, but it seems unbelievable to me that no credible coups or mutinies have been planned or would be possible (particularly in the face of self initiated nuclear destruction).
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Probably the best anology would be Germany as WW2 came to a close. The more fanatical members of the SS would likely have gone for total annihilation and used Germany's vast supplies of nerve gas to kill as as many people as possible, including Germans. The Wehrmacht and the higher ranking SS survivalists likely made this impossible. The question, not easily discernible, is whether NK's army is a fanatical SS like entity or something like Saddam's Republican Guard. It would be nice if the latter was true.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
The only thing that is keeping them together is fear of the all-powerful regime. Once that is disproven, only some fanatics will want to fight, the vast majority will just try to survive this.

Of course, the people who predict hundreds of thousands of ... japanese casualties, for example, will probably simply reply that the whole population are brain-washed drones and will fight till the end, millions will die! China will launch nukes ... North Korea will launch their nukes that they haven't developed as warheads yet etc. World War 3, total annihilation, best just to sit tight and accept nuclear proliferation among states the US consider rogue.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
North Korea has chemical weapons, has nukes that they may be able to deliver to Japan (e.g. into ports such as those used by the USN on some of those sneaky little subs, if they haven't got functioning missile warheads) & which they could certainly deliver to S. Korea. Even discounting for the exaggerated 'millions dead in Seoul in hours' stories, all those guns & rockets on the border could deliver a lot of HE, & chemicals if they choose to, before being stopped.
 
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Stampede

Well-Known Member
The problem with a "diplomatic arrangement" is that one will have to pay billions to the Norks to even start the process, and it will be meaningless unless one is willing to accept that one of the outcomes is forcing the ROK to be subordinated to the DPRK.

People who think the Norks want nukes for deterrence are wrong; as B. R. Myers has said:



And simply put, a process where the world forces the ROK to surrender to the DPRK for "peace" is Sudetenland-level insanity.
I wonder what China would make of a unified Korea lead by Kim Jong- Un.
Nightmare or opportunity.
I doubt it would happen but then again it's hard to contemplate that the Korean peninsular will be divided across the 38th Parallel for another 69 years.
So what are the options.
Keep the Status Quo.
Maybe a reunification, but on who's terms. North or South.
Maybe this peninsular will be subjugated by a larger played.
The future looks uncertain and increasingly so does the option of maintaining the
Status Quo
This is a very alarming situation
Very much a time for calm words and checked ego's.

I wonder if that is possible.

Regards S

.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I wonder what China would make of a unified Korea lead by Kim Jong- Un.
Nightmare or opportunity.
.
Nightmare.

Think about the stability of a country in which two-thirds of the population are unwilling, recently conquered subjects, used to prosperity living in a wrecked & now starving country, & the soldiers of the conquering army are surrounded by incontrovertible proof that the government they've conquered it for has lied to them about almost everything all their lives.

Who'd want that as a neighbour?

South Korea is a good trade partner for China, & only at all troublesome because of things it does to counter N. Korea. North Korea's bloody annoying, & inconvenient to have next door.
 

gazzzwp

Member
Look at the situation.

The Russian leadership are revelling in the situation where a rogue nation is now able to genuinely threaten it's main opponent. Why would Russia want that to change?

Same for China. Without the US interference in the SCS who would there be to oppose China's monopoly over resources there?

There is simply no will or motivation to act. I don't believe either nation gives a damn to be quite honest whether or not the peninsula is unified on South Korean terms. Both super powers are content to continue the charade of pretending they are acting but in reality they are laughing their pants off.

If DPRK were pointing missiles at Russia or China, then Kim's nation would be ashes long ago.

It's the end for the DPRK and the US knows it. Already Ambassador Haley has hinted that the UN has run it's course and she is happy now to hand the matter over to the Pentagon.

U.S. Ambassador Haley: U.N. has exhausted options on North Korea | Reuters

I reckon this is it. There is no more road to kick the can down. The US is correct in that. Kim is not interested and sees that he is holding the aces.

All we can do now is pray that the opening USAF attack is totally effective and that Seoul is spared.

Short of the US employing a naval blockade (and a land blockade) to prevent oil and major supplies getting through which in itself would most likely trigger an all out conflict then the USAF has to go in and perform a massive first strike.

I predict that we will wake up one morning soon to the news that hundreds or thousands of sorties have taken out the DPRK's missile and artillery batteries and the rest is just a matter of time before the DPRK's military machine is rendered ineffective.
 
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t68

Well-Known Member
I predict that we will wake up one morning soon to the news that hundreds or thousands of sorties have taken out the DPRK's missile and artillery batteries and the rest is just a matter of time before the DPRK's military machine is rendered ineffective.
There's no way the US could do that without a massive build up like GW1, and I doubt that NK would give them 6-10 mths lead in. I also doubt even with the US large stockpile of tomahawks that they would have enough if the just used those.
 

gazzzwp

Member
There's no way the US could do that without a massive build up like GW1, and I doubt that NK would give them 6-10 mths lead in. I also doubt even with the US large stockpile of tomahawks that they would have enough if the just used those.
The US claims that it has a military solution so maybe their stealth capabilities will reduce the number of Tomahawks needed.

The question is will Russia and Chine attempt to put up an umbrella over the DPRK?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-naval-drills-near-north-korea-idUSKCN1BT0CK
 

Strannik

Member
The US claims that it has a military solution so maybe their stealth capabilities will reduce the number of Tomahawks needed.

The question is will Russia and Chine attempt to put up an umbrella over the DPRK?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-naval-drills-near-north-korea-idUSKCN1BT0CK
Look at this flight of fantasies :)
We are counting tomahawks, dreaming thousands of sorties, countering hypothetical (fantastical) chance of Russia and China stepping in for the NK.

Well, nothing of this sort is going to happen. Nothing.

All this huffing and puffing will simply fizzle away, and disappear from the media landscape, when “masters” say to quite it down. Nothing to look at here moving on.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The US claims that it has a military solution so maybe their stealth capabilities will reduce the number of Tomahawks needed.

The question is will Russia and Chine attempt to put up an umbrella over the DPRK?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-naval-drills-near-north-korea-idUSKCN1BT0CK
A piece of friendly advice. Dial back the jingoistic nationalistic tone or you may just run afoul of the Moderating team. One poster within the last 24 hours has had a close encounter with Preceptors ban hammer.
 
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