John Fedup
The Bunker Group
IIRC, it was MacArthur's decision to keep the emperor in place that made control of post war Japan a lot easier, despite calls from many to prosecute Hirohito.
North Korean Military.
- Thread starter F-15 Eagle
- Start date
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/06/13/suspected-north-korean-drone-photographed-advanced-u-s-missile-defense-site-report-says/?utm_term=.feff6d7fb608
So how difficult is it to spot drones like that? I can understand people or groups like ISIS/ISIL not seeing them. But a fairly sophisticated country like South Korea with a historically hostile/recently unstable neighbor?
And if it was a one time thing maybe could understand, but I recall seeing other stories over the last few years about lapses in air defense. Its tough to tell with that picture, but its a decent sized UAV.
Penetrating all the way to Seongju County and then making its way north until it ran out of fuel? The way they used the word found in all these articles makes it sound like it was just stumbled upon by a passerby. Not exactly confidence inspiring.
So how difficult is it to spot drones like that? I can understand people or groups like ISIS/ISIL not seeing them. But a fairly sophisticated country like South Korea with a historically hostile/recently unstable neighbor?
And if it was a one time thing maybe could understand, but I recall seeing other stories over the last few years about lapses in air defense. Its tough to tell with that picture, but its a decent sized UAV.
Penetrating all the way to Seongju County and then making its way north until it ran out of fuel? The way they used the word found in all these articles makes it sound like it was just stumbled upon by a passerby. Not exactly confidence inspiring.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
This time the tested missile reached an altitude of 2800 km, and there are signs that the missile wasn't just a mid-range ballistic missile, but possibly an ICMB. VS woedend over intercontinentale rakettest Noord-Korea | NOS
I just wonder if it stays with negotiations with china and again additional embargos, which haven't an effect at all.
I just wonder if it stays with negotiations with china and again additional embargos, which haven't an effect at all.
Not sure how much china will do consider Donny anger china by sailing near disputed island twice, selling 1.4B weapons to Taiwan, calling china biggest human rights violator, and sanctions Chinese bank.
The US has confirmed that it was indeed an ICBM and experts predict that a miniaturized nuke warhead is at most a couple of years away. It appears that NK is going to get it's capability to strike the US homeland despite all the tough talk from Washington that this would never happen. Trump's recent tweets just seem to show he has no cogent appreciation of, nor strategy to deal with this reality. KJU isn't impressed by POTUS tweeting and likely sees these as signs of weakness.
Former Vice Chair of the JCS Adm. Winnefeld weighs in with what appears to be a pragmatic approach to the conundrum.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-07/morning-after-korea’s-icbm-test
The Morning After Korea’s ICBM Test
by Adm. James A. Winnefeld (Ret.)
So, whether the United States likes it or not, the real goal should be to prevent use or proliferation of nuclear weapons by North Korea, and let that pariah nation stew in its own juice
- Improve its ability to build combat power on the Korean Peninsula in the event of a crisis to bolster conventional deterrence against North Korean aggression...The only practical answer is prepositioning more “really ready” equipment on the peninsula and ensuring U.S. forces can fall in on it rapidly.
- Continue to buttress its “right of launch” missile defense capability. The importance of the recent successful, fortuitously timed, first-ever real test of the ground-based interceptor against a truly representative North Korean ICBM threat cannot be overstated.
- Redouble its efforts to hold ballistic missiles at risk “left of launch.”... The imperatives of reliably and quickly finding a missile, making a decision rapidly, and destroying the missile before it can be launched are hard but not insurmountable problems.
- The international community needs to employ better methods of detection in all areas—including the flow of money, intellectual property, and end items—and institute effective measures to interdict all three.
Former Vice Chair of the JCS Adm. Winnefeld weighs in with what appears to be a pragmatic approach to the conundrum.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-07/morning-after-korea’s-icbm-test
The Morning After Korea’s ICBM Test
by Adm. James A. Winnefeld (Ret.)
So, whether the United States likes it or not, the real goal should be to prevent use or proliferation of nuclear weapons by North Korea, and let that pariah nation stew in its own juice
- Improve its ability to build combat power on the Korean Peninsula in the event of a crisis to bolster conventional deterrence against North Korean aggression...The only practical answer is prepositioning more “really ready” equipment on the peninsula and ensuring U.S. forces can fall in on it rapidly.
- Continue to buttress its “right of launch” missile defense capability. The importance of the recent successful, fortuitously timed, first-ever real test of the ground-based interceptor against a truly representative North Korean ICBM threat cannot be overstated.
- Redouble its efforts to hold ballistic missiles at risk “left of launch.”... The imperatives of reliably and quickly finding a missile, making a decision rapidly, and destroying the missile before it can be launched are hard but not insurmountable problems.
- The international community needs to employ better methods of detection in all areas—including the flow of money, intellectual property, and end items—and institute effective measures to interdict all three.
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Letting North Korea develop ICBMs and (practical) nuclear weapons would be a mistake of epic proportions. If there was ever a valid reason for war, this is it.
The american people have been fooled into wars by fraudulent politicians and media, but this is something entirely different. I would provoke the north Koreans into a confrontation and then start an unrelenting air campaign against them.
The american people have been fooled into wars by fraudulent politicians and media, but this is something entirely different. I would provoke the north Koreans into a confrontation and then start an unrelenting air campaign against them.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
The war should have happened before NK's first nuclear test. Successive US administrations new this day was coming and just punted the problem to the next administration. The same process has occurred with their ICBM program. Now the fall back position is to prevent NK from proliferating nuclear weapons. The theory that Kim won't do anything stupid because it would threaten his survival is pretty lame. Sanctions have not worked and never will unless China is threatened with trade actions which might have worse consequences for the world economic order than military action against NK.
t68
Well-Known Member
That's easy to say when you don't live in the south, truth be told don't think any one could have done much about it(exept for the Chinese),it's a different set of geopolitical sum game compared to Iran.
I think even with all the west technological advantage I don't think north Korea will be the pushover some people believe, using shock and awe like in GW1 is not much help when you have generations of brainwashed land army of a couple of million under arms
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Yes, this is a between a rock and a hard place scenario. The threat of a massive artillery attack will now be upgraded to a nuclear capability, the result of doing nothing. Perhaps SK is content to face NK blackmail and intimidation because they feel it is a solution that is better and safer than dealing with the consequences of a war. Japan and the US will have to decide if this idea makes any sense. Every time Kim is given an inch he takes a mile. This won't change as it has been working for him.
As for the NK army, I have know idea how well they have been brainwashed. Fear is only motivation (along with food to eat) for the average soldier and when under intense fire, the fear of officers could well be replaced by the fear of destruction. Add in their knowledge of what is being done to their fellow citizens the option of rising up against the regime starts to look viable. Wishful thinking but history has examples of this.
As for the NK army, I have know idea how well they have been brainwashed. Fear is only motivation (along with food to eat) for the average soldier and when under intense fire, the fear of officers could well be replaced by the fear of destruction. Add in their knowledge of what is being done to their fellow citizens the option of rising up against the regime starts to look viable. Wishful thinking but history has examples of this.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Don't know what you mean by soft power but why would that work? Seoul is in range of NK nukes but Tokyo isn't, yet. I don't think Japan would object to a huge US air strike against NK nuclear and ICBM sites next week. The questions are would such a strike end these programs and what would Kim's response be?
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Eventually NK will be able to deliver a nuke but not yet. I doubt they have a tactical nuke artillery shell for the same reason they don't have a device for a missile, minuturization. The same is likely true for delivery by plane which is probably not viable due to SK air defence anyway.
As for soft power, I think all possible ideas have failed so the last resort is approaching unless Japan and the US are prepared to accept nuclear armed ICBMs aimed at them by a nut-job.
As for soft power, I think all possible ideas have failed so the last resort is approaching unless Japan and the US are prepared to accept nuclear armed ICBMs aimed at them by a nut-job.
Past behaviour has shown that N.Korea will retaliate, they are not Syria. So any attack on them will result in an engagement. They will probably bomb US bases in S.Korea and maybe urban centers, too. Because the US carrier groups that perform the attack will be way out of reach and they will have to strike back somehow.
It is best to provoke them into attacking first, so that China can't pretend to be offended.
The alternative is that one day the future POTUS will ask his advisers about the worst case scenario in case of a N.Korea confrontation and they will describe millions of casualties within the first few hours. So the USA will be held hostage by a nuclear-armed and totally unreliable regime.
If we look at it from the perspective of the US, potential south korean casualties from artillery and other means of conventional warfare are a price that has to be paid to keep US cities permanently safe from nuclear devastation.
This dead-end is partly owed to the way the US handled the Iraq and Libya regimes. I understand why the N.Koreans do not budge. Nuclear weapons is the only thing that can keep the US in check. If you give the US an inch, they will take a mile.
He'll have to choice but to retaliate. To do nothing would be a major loss of face and would invite further military action.
Contrary to how the world perceives him and the image he portrays of himself; he's no nut job; neither are his advisors. Everything is calculated in advance and is intended to achieve certain objectives. If he was a nut job he would have started a war already. The fact remains that North Korea is still run by the same family decades after the country was formed and they have nukes. Nobody talks about regime change in Pyongyang as the North Koreans - unlike Syria, Libya and Iraq - can dish out real damage.
If I was North Korean I wouldn't budge. In addition to believing that nukes is the only thing keeping my government in power, I would also question what right the world has in deciding who can have nukes and who can't.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Most likely correct.
He executed his uncle and had a general shot with an AA gun. Then there are all the known and unknown horrors he inflicts on his fellow citizens on a daily basis. The only advice his advisers are offering is stuff he wants to hear because he is a nut job.
This ''nut job'' is still in power and keeping and testing his nukes and getting away with it .... He knows what he's doing; whether it's dealing with the international community [he understands them better than they do him] and maintaining his grip on power. If he was a real ''nut job'' in the classic sense of the word; he would have done a major miscalculation and he would be dead or in exile by now. Like his father and his grandfather; he knows just how far he can push the U.S. and get away with it.
Gadaffi was seen as a nut job'' but he was in power for a long time and held off a number of powerful enemies who meant him harm. Sure, eventually he was overthrown but it started from within and he survived for decades. The idea that the North Korean leadership does things at the spur of the moment is not accurate, everything is calculated and is intended or something. They've had a lot of practice dealing with various enemies and keeping them at bay.
Gadaffi was seen as a nut job'' but he was in power for a long time and held off a number of powerful enemies who meant him harm. Sure, eventually he was overthrown but it started from within and he survived for decades. The idea that the North Korean leadership does things at the spur of the moment is not accurate, everything is calculated and is intended or something. They've had a lot of practice dealing with various enemies and keeping them at bay.
2007yellow430
Active Member
Exactly right. They have seen our act, and fully understand what we would do if we could. Saddam and Gadaffi were examples and reasons to do exactly what they are doing.
If his population is being abused, let them figure out how to eliminate him.
What hasn't been discussed is the ability to detonate an EMP over the US. We need to leave him alone.
Art