John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #341
One can almost assume there was likely concerns once this info became public.
New Coronavirus threat
- Thread starter John Fedup
- Start date
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
A point of correction, the R
0 or R naught of seasonal influenza epidemics was 1.28, some of the pandemic influenzas were higher, with an R0 of ~1.8. Further details can be had from this NIH page.As I had linked to previously, the initial R0 of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the one responsible for the COVID-19 disease, had an estimated R naught of 2.2 to 2.7, however further research suggests that the median R
0 could be 5.7 per an early release article in the CDC's Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal, the regular release for that journal is July 2020 but the article is available online here.The basic gist is that a person infect with influenza will typically infect one other person, but occasionally two other people, whilst someone infected SARS-CoV-2 was thought to usually spread the virus to between two or three other people. The newer data (which is subject to change and correction/clarification) suggests that the infection spread might regularly reach five or six others for the novel coronavirus, and that it is considerably more infectious than influenza is, to the tune of 2x to 4x or more infectious.
One must keep in mind though that in many areas the scope of both testing for the virus, as well as accurate testing for antibodies remains inadequate. It is possible (IMO rather likely actually) that once significantly greater portions of populations get tested then the findings will indicate that a significantly greater number of people have or have had COVID-19 than currently believed. This would essentially spike the R
0 even higher, while also likely driving the mortality and CFR down.As for the significance of the seeming lack of mutation on the part of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, that suggests that the virus RNA is not shifting as much which suggests that developing a workable vaccine will be easier since the virus would be less likely to change properties and structure.
As for the virus seeming to cause blood clots throughout the body in some cases, that has indeed been observed and some doctors (in NYC IIRC) have started utilizing a drug regime to respond to the clots in a manner similar to how stroke/ischemia is treated. This is generally done using thrombolytics to break up clots and then anticoagulants (blood thinning/clotting factor inhibiting) medications.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #343
Interesting piece about the 1968 flu pandemic and how it is barely mentioned. If the numbers are correct one would think it should have had a higher media profile although the war news dominated the media. Without the internet or fancy name for the virus I guess it never gained traction as the flu. I wonder if the 1968 pandemic had internet coverage like today, would the economic consequences be similar? Certainly globalization was less so at least medical kit was being manufactured in the US and Europe to a much larger degree back then.
www.realcleardefense.com
This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War
2020 has been a rough year. 1968 was worse. Granted, as of late April, we are only a third of the way into this tumultuous and frustrating new decade. Unless the United States goes t
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #344
This article is pretty speculative but given the CCP’s less than forthcoming performance at the beginning of the pandemic and the amount economic damage that China suffered, it is not unreasonable that Xi and company may have been concerned at being at a disadvantage if the US didn’t incur some damage as well. Did Xi Jinping Deliberately Sicken the World?
Projectman
New Member
Forwarded the Washington post article to a senior cardiothoracic surgeon and he replied with the below -
"Covid 2 -19 Virus introduces S proteins attaching the virus to the cells of Respirator tract , infusing abnormal RNA onto the cell’s DNA with a strange gene sequence with 50 or so characters into million character of the genome sequence.Consequently the metabolic chacteristics and cellular functions become corrupted and the lung’s alveoli(the air cells lined with cappillaries accross which the exchange of oxygen and Carbon dioxide ceases and the severe hypoxia all homeostatic functions cease affecting the coagulation profile causing consumptive coagulopathy with excessive uncontrollable huge or clotting in small vessels in multiple organs from skin to the vital organs.In simple words the human body succumbs to what started as simple Oxidative distress syndrome in those pts who lack immunity to fight out producing sufficient white cells to scavenge the bad products produced by storming of cytokines and their reaction .There is sudden Perepheral circulatory failure cardio respiratory arrest kidneys failure and brain death.The human cell is a very complex biochemical laboratory."
Also with reference to the higher fatalities in cardiac patients he wrote-
"Kidney failure-Raised Pot K+
Brain stem- vasomotor loss
Diabetic keto acidosis
Resp failure Co2 hypoxia
Hypotension
Multi organ failure
All cause cardiac arrhythmia
Ultimately Cardiac arrest"
Since these are WhatsApp exchanges, they are on the cryptic side.
"Covid 2 -19 Virus introduces S proteins attaching the virus to the cells of Respirator tract , infusing abnormal RNA onto the cell’s DNA with a strange gene sequence with 50 or so characters into million character of the genome sequence.Consequently the metabolic chacteristics and cellular functions become corrupted and the lung’s alveoli(the air cells lined with cappillaries accross which the exchange of oxygen and Carbon dioxide ceases and the severe hypoxia all homeostatic functions cease affecting the coagulation profile causing consumptive coagulopathy with excessive uncontrollable huge or clotting in small vessels in multiple organs from skin to the vital organs.In simple words the human body succumbs to what started as simple Oxidative distress syndrome in those pts who lack immunity to fight out producing sufficient white cells to scavenge the bad products produced by storming of cytokines and their reaction .There is sudden Perepheral circulatory failure cardio respiratory arrest kidneys failure and brain death.The human cell is a very complex biochemical laboratory."
Also with reference to the higher fatalities in cardiac patients he wrote-
"Kidney failure-Raised Pot K+
Brain stem- vasomotor loss
Diabetic keto acidosis
Resp failure Co2 hypoxia
Hypotension
Multi organ failure
All cause cardiac arrhythmia
Ultimately Cardiac arrest"
Since these are WhatsApp exchanges, they are on the cryptic side.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #346
Depressing news for me as a vulnerable at risk person. I think I will bang back a few more brews.
Huh, I actually understand what @Projectman posted. Are you sure you didn't miss a few words? There seems to be a few missing phrases. If you can double-check your WhatsApp exchange, that will be great.
Projectman
New Member
It's all there. I actually copy pasted his reply from WhatsApp. Am not sure whether he wrote it or he also copied it from an article.
Indian central government has suddenly partially opened commercial activity from last night after more than a month. It's on the states whether they want to follow the centres advice. Interesting days ahead as India went into total lockdown when the number of deaths in india were not even 50. Now we have nearly 800 total dead , with approximately 1500 daily new infections. Guess the government decided that the economic effect of prolonging the lockdown would outstrip the medical risks.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Vietnam Among First Nations to Reopen After Week Without Virus
Restrictions remain to stave off a resurgence of a virus that has been unpredictable
www.voanews.com
Reopening Lockdown doesn't mean it will open all back to Normal. Look at Vietnam case, with only 200+ infection and no fatalities so far, they will reopen the lockdown but will still treat some restrictions and social Distancing.
I believe even some lockdown will be reopen, but it will not be back to normal.
Vietnam I know some foreign experts are casting doubt on their number, considering they are very close to China but don't have same kind of resources like South Korea and Taiwan that also relative able to hold the infection in reasonable level.
However, after talking with some expat colleagues there, I tend to believe their number due to Vietnam discipline to track and isolated cases early on.
Some Indonesian for example are reminiscing of Soeharto era privately. Saying that if Indonesia still under Soeharto, we will not getting this number of infection (officially 8000+) since he will looked down us from February like Vietnam did. Perhaps that's price of democracy compared to centralised dictator regime on the cases of pandemic. I don't know, but for me just like Taiwan, eventough it's democratic nation, but the self discipline of populations to do their own self distancing is also very important that can create a similar result on policing lockdown.
As opening for economic purpose, in the end most of countries will do it anyway. However they will need to build up resources, mass testing and provide more emergency hospitals first.
Talking with some of my clients in textiles industry, they talk that Indonesia textiles industry already make millions of mask, protective suites and with glove latex industry can create much more. DI and Pindad as strategic industry already preparing to role out their ventilators, with Pindad models more for ICU's class ventilators while DI models more to portable emergency ventilators. Thus emergency transition on some of their production capacities toward health related products can happen on many industry in infected nation's.
However on the question that some comments in here on taking back some capabilities and capacities domestically, the questions will always be Economics.
When the pandemic die downs, most industries will revert back from making surgical gloves, masks, protective suits, ventilators to their own previous products. Simply the demand will reduce significant which make those 'emergencies' manufacturing can't compete with specialise manufacturer on efficiencies and margin economically.
Just like in WW2, where all industries making war support production and armaments, after war ended most will revert to their previous products and left armaments and military related production to those who already specialise in the Industry before the war. Same thing will happen here, after the pandemic die down or being relative controllable.
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Black Jack Shellac
Active Member
The pandemic could end up changing everything - including the military
An article from the CBC about how Canada's military had to respond to the pandemic. I think every military and govenrment around the world is busy rethinking how things work right now. I don't know if the thinking will stick, but the weaknesses in globalization, and relying on your potential adversaries for your basic necessities in a crisis has certainly been exposed.
Hopefully some meaningful changes are made.
An article from the CBC about how Canada's military had to respond to the pandemic. I think every military and govenrment around the world is busy rethinking how things work right now. I don't know if the thinking will stick, but the weaknesses in globalization, and relying on your potential adversaries for your basic necessities in a crisis has certainly been exposed.
Hopefully some meaningful changes are made.
Projectman
New Member
A excellent paper describing the effect of the virus.
It seems to effect all major organs including gastrointestinal lining. Which contradicts many comments that virus on food would be destroyed by stomach acid.
www.sciencemag.org
It seems to effect all major organs including gastrointestinal lining. Which contradicts many comments that virus on food would be destroyed by stomach acid.
Science | AAAS
www.sciencemag.org
Boagrius
Well-Known Member
Interested to hear the views of the DT brains-trust on this:
I'm not sure I put too much stock in a sample of ~5000 individuals from one part of the USA, but they are making similar claims about international data. Thoughts?
Full article: Open Up Society Now, Say Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi
I'm not sure I put too much stock in a sample of ~5000 individuals from one part of the USA, but they are making similar claims about international data. Thoughts?
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
Honestly I put very little stock in what they are saying.
Incidentally here is another article about what those specific doctors are advising. The content is pretty much the same, but it is from a Fox-affiliate new site in Bakersfield CA, as opposed to an American economic research/policy organization with definite policy interests covering economic and socio-political topics and not medical/healthcare areas. On the plus side, while the political/media bias appears to be centre-right in nature, they also to have a high degree of factual reporting/information, which is much better than I have seen from a number of organizations arguing to end stay at home orders in the US. I still would not look at a place that has interests in "freedom/liberty" and economics for information on what is or is not safe to do during a healthcare crisis.
Now for a brief rundown of issues I have with what the two doctors in the articles have commented on.
One of the first is that just about everyone in a healthcare environment that I know of, who has looked at the numbers, is aware that both the infect is more widespread than the # of confirmed cases demonstrates, and that as a result the CFR is not as bad as it actually looks at present. This is understood because, at least in the US, there have been large numbers of people who were or are symptomatic but untested because of the testing protocols which dictated who got tested. When that gets coupled with the numbers of people who have been found to be asymptomatic, it becomes quite clear that there are more people who have, or have had the virus, than the number of confirmed cases would indicate.
There are a few specific areas that I take issue with what the doctors have advised, and some what they advise has me wondering what their agenda actually is since it does not seem like good medical advise given the current pandemic. To illustrate this, if one looks at the developed nations worldwide, they have all had similar sorts of responses with shutdown orders of various degrees of severity and success having been issued, yet these two doctors argue that it was not needed and should be lifted? That does not add up for me.
As a side note, one of the arguments seems to be that 'only the sick' should be quarantined... I take issue with what they said about that, again for a variety of reasons both current and historical. I have to run out, so I will attempt to resume this later.
Boagrius
Well-Known Member
Would certainly be interested to hear you elaborate on this. Their comments on social isolation being detrimental to the immune system struck me as rather bizarre, certainly where adult individuals are concerned.
Sounds good. Agree that this is another strange one, as it seems to completely neglect the role of asymptomatic individuals/super-spreaders in propagating the disease.
There is a hell of a lot that we don't know about this virus and its its impacts upon human morbidity and mortality. We are learning more each day. What Drs Erickson and Massihi are saying there is adding to the scientific discourse on this virus. It differs from the general consensus at the moment, but it still adds to the discourse. I too think that the sample size is small and low in quality.
I do agree with the proposition that the virus was present in international societies before official notifications occurred. It would be a logical conclusion because of the Chinese communist government action of containing and restricting any information about the virus and its outbreak until late January, a full 2 months after it came to their notice.
I do agree with the proposition that the virus was present in international societies before official notifications occurred. It would be a logical conclusion because of the Chinese communist government action of containing and restricting any information about the virus and its outbreak until late January, a full 2 months after it came to their notice.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
Alright, let me see if I can remember what my train-derailment of thought was...
One of the issues I have is with their assertions on the role of a quarantine, both historically and in modern medical practice. The process of quarantining to contain disease is an ancient one, with writings about it from 500 BCE and earlier. The actual term quarantine that we use now comes from the 40 day period that newly arrived vessels would need to wait before unloading and disembarking at Venetian ports, to see if the ship and passengers were free from the Black Death. The whole point of the quarantine was to wait to see if symptoms would develop or not, it was to see if someone was or became sick, not to isolate someone already known to be sick.
That is really where the shelter in place/stay home orders come into play here in the US. There were/are just too many people who are potentially infectious, especially when compared with the availability (and accuracy) of tests to determine if someone is infected or has been infected with the virus. Basically the stay home orders were to keep everyone isolated so that they were less likely to get infected by someone else they are not in daily contact with, but also to keep the people who were/are infectious at home so they have less opportunity to expose or infect others. In essence, one had to operate under the assumption that everyone was infected until proven otherwise.
As a side note, the doctors also seem to not be as familiar with some of the response history to the 1918 influenza pandemic, when there had been widespread orders issued for people to isolate as well as closures ordered to public venues like theatres and bars/pubs where crowds of people would congregate.
As an interesting note, I looked into the profile of Dr. Daniel W. Erickson and found out that he is a DO or Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine, vs. an MD or Doctor of Medicine. In the US, the two types of doctors can be licensed throughout the country provided they meet the required post-graduate medical training and credentialing, however the while the US recognizes MD's awarded by non-US medical schools as medical doctors, the same recognition is not extended to non-US osteopathic medical schools. Also the standardized entrance test scores for DO programmes tend to be a little lower than for MD programmes.
Between the above, plus the article talking up their 40 years of experience in medicine, I suspect that is a combined total of 40 years experience between both doctors given their apparent age. I then look at Dr. Anthony Faucci MD, who was awarded his MD in 1966, meaning that he by himself has over 50 years of medical experience. When you factor the level of experience and resource access differential between two doctors who run an Urgent Care facility in a city of ~350k compared to agencies like the CDC, various state health departments, medical and research facilities at places like Harvard, and overseas agencies and organizations involved in healthcare and what these groups are stating vs. what the two doctors are...
Hence my rather skeptical view of what the two doctors are saying, even before really diving into the numbers.
As of 28 April 2020 01:00 GMT, it appears that the US has had over 1 mil. Confirmed Cases, over 56k Deaths, not quite 139k Recovered cases, and still has ~818k Active cases. What that means is the current death toll is comparable to the death toll of the worse flu season in a decade, and that is also only the case if a significant number of new, non-hospital/medical facility deaths do not get recorded as being due to COVID-19, AND that all the currently confirmed active cases make a recovery, which IMO is an unrealistically optimistic expectation. The current trend seems to be that about one in three, or one if four confirmed cases succumb which is not too surprising given the population who do qualify to be tested. Even if the US starts seeing a significant improvement in confirmed case outcomes, with perhaps only one in 10 now succumbing, that still works out to nearly 80k more deaths.
The reason I bring all that up, is that again, it is a widespread belief even among healthcare and emergency services workers that this disease arrived earlier, and that many more either have been or currently are infected. However, since it is not yet the belief that everyone has been or is infected, measures still need to taken to attempt to maintain containment, otherwise there will be even more infected and even if only a small percentage of new infections end in death, that would still be a significant death toll.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #357
It is possible that COVID patients experiencing loss of smell and taste may be more likely to present with mild symptoms not requiring hospitalization according to this article.
www.technologynetworks.com
Loss of Smell Linked to Milder Clinical Course of COVID-19
Following an earlier study that validated the loss of smell and taste as indicators of SARS-CoV-2 infection, researchers report that olfactory impairment suggests the resulting COVID-19 disease is more likely to be mild to moderate, a potential early indicator that could help health care...
www.technologynetworks.com
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
Reply to a post in the General Aviation thread that is related to the current coronavirus pandemic.
My take is that the approach NZ seems to have taken, which was to completely close the country to certain places, and then institute a mandatory quarantine for virtually all other incoming travelers, seems to be the best approach given the current circumstances. Yes, there are tests to indicate whether someone was infected at the time of the swab, but those tests take time to process and there are reliability issues, with false negatives be a more significant problem IMO.
I have little confidence in the serology/anti-body tests at the present time. This is due to a number of factors but among them is of course the likelihood of both false positive and false negative results, as well as the lack of knowledge we still have regarding the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We still do not know what amount of anti-bodies would provide immunity or for how long such immunity would last. Also relating to that, while work is being done to develop a vaccine, we still do not know if that will ever actually produce a viable product. The common cold is also a coronavirus, and AFAIK despite research spanning decades, we still do not have a vaccine and people can get infected by that multiple times.
Not trying to be doom and gloom here, but given the gaps in what we know, there is no one solution that I consider viable at present.
If rapid, on the spot COVID-19 testing becomes both available and very reliable were to be coupled with agreements on testing and documenting the presence of anti-bodies, and border checkpoint/quarantine areas, then international travel could possible. However I doubt that such arrangements would really be viable for tourism, since the potential for being held for 14 days in quarantine before getting to a tourist destination would dampen people's interest.
There are a bunch of issues which could impact travel, although air travel is likely to be more impacted just due to the greater rate of people movement.
My take is that the approach NZ seems to have taken, which was to completely close the country to certain places, and then institute a mandatory quarantine for virtually all other incoming travelers, seems to be the best approach given the current circumstances. Yes, there are tests to indicate whether someone was infected at the time of the swab, but those tests take time to process and there are reliability issues, with false negatives be a more significant problem IMO.
I have little confidence in the serology/anti-body tests at the present time. This is due to a number of factors but among them is of course the likelihood of both false positive and false negative results, as well as the lack of knowledge we still have regarding the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We still do not know what amount of anti-bodies would provide immunity or for how long such immunity would last. Also relating to that, while work is being done to develop a vaccine, we still do not know if that will ever actually produce a viable product. The common cold is also a coronavirus, and AFAIK despite research spanning decades, we still do not have a vaccine and people can get infected by that multiple times.
Not trying to be doom and gloom here, but given the gaps in what we know, there is no one solution that I consider viable at present.
If rapid, on the spot COVID-19 testing becomes both available and very reliable were to be coupled with agreements on testing and documenting the presence of anti-bodies, and border checkpoint/quarantine areas, then international travel could possible. However I doubt that such arrangements would really be viable for tourism, since the potential for being held for 14 days in quarantine before getting to a tourist destination would dampen people's interest.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
I came across a joint statement issued by the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) with respect to the opinions shared by Dr. Erickson and Dr. Massihi. While towards the end the joint statement does mention that the doctors have the right to have an opinion and to share it, and that in time the opinions expressed could be correct, what they stated is not backed up with data that would stand up to per review, that by owning urgent care centres they have an inherent conflict of interest, and that their statements about having been emergency room physicians that one should not overstate one's qualifications.
Full joint statement is located here.
Boagrius
Well-Known Member
Disgraceful that anyone would try to mislead the public on this for their own financial gain.
As an Aussie looking at the US from the outside in, I am bewildered by the extent to which some Americans view quarantine/isolation measures as a fundamental violation of their rights/civil liberties. The feeling here is more that it is a short term sacrifice for a long term objective, not a form of tyranny. By all accounts it seems to be working too... knock on wood of course *taps head* ;-)
As an Aussie looking at the US from the outside in, I am bewildered by the extent to which some Americans view quarantine/isolation measures as a fundamental violation of their rights/civil liberties. The feeling here is more that it is a short term sacrifice for a long term objective, not a form of tyranny. By all accounts it seems to be working too... knock on wood of course *taps head* ;-)