New Coronavirus threat

[hauritz]

Forget flattening, could Australia squash the curve?

If Australia is running a marathon in how it tackles coronavirus, New Zealand has opted for something closer to a sprint.

www.abc.net.au

What has started out as a flattening of the curve may end up as an attempt to eliminate the virus from Australia and NZ. NZ has already set out to do this but Australia has mostly been working towards mitigation. If Australia and NZ achieve this it would essentially mean that we could not fully reopen our borders until a vaccine was created. It is quite possible that Australia and NZ may still find themselves isolated long after the rest of the planet starts getting back to normal.

 

[OPSSG]

There are a number of different reports on the cause and spread of the virus but one of the problems are the sources of such articles and their bias ,I have attached one such but cannot confirm the veracity of the claims it documents , its hard to verify if its sensationalised or accurate as with several other articles by other media groups

404 | Victims of Communism

Page Not Found This page may have moved or is no longer available. Please use the search function to find what you are looking for. TweetShareSharePin

www.victimsofcommunism.org

You have been warned multiple times. In particular, your politically motivated posts have consistently degraded the quality of discussion in this thread. Therefore, the Mod Team will decide if you will be allowed to continue to post in this thread for the remainder of 2020.

Of course China is not blameless in their handling of the outbreak. For almost two weeks during which China’s national Center for Disease Control did not register any cases from local officials, internal bulletins obtained by the AP confirm. Yet during that time, from 5 Jan 2020 to 17 Jan 2020, hundreds of patients were appearing in hospitals not just in Wuhan but across the country.

Let me provide some context by asking and seeking partial answers to the 3 questions I pose below.

Q1: When did the central committee CCP fully understand what would happen?

Ans to Q1: There was an understandable 6 day delay in action. President Xi Jinping warned the public on 20 Jan 2020 - the seventh day - but by then, more than 3,000 people had been infected during almost a week of public silence, according to internal documents obtained by The Associated Press (AP) news agency. The delay from 14 Jan 2020 to 20 Jan 2020 was neither the first mistake made by Chinese officials, nor the longest lag, as governments around the world have dragged their feet for weeks and even months in addressing the virus.

Q2: Are the provincial officials hiding the facts in early Jan, even from the CCP?

OR

Q3: Was the lack of testing at that stage, (during 5 Jan to 17 Jan), preventing them from knowing the scale and nature of the problem?

Ans to Q2 & Q3: It’s uncertain whether it was local officials who failed to report cases or national officials who failed to record them. It’s also not clear exactly what officials knew at the time in Wuhan, which only opened back up last week with restrictions after its quarantine. If the CCP leadership had realised it weeks earlier (during 5 Jan to 17 Jan) and acted strongly, they might not have a pandemic.

But it is certain that the CCP did not initially understand how this virus was spread, the threat it’s super spreaders posed and that President Xi and the CCP needed time to consult, mobilise resources and to make a decision— more importantly, China, did not at this time, had not started commercial production of its own coronavirus test kit and therefore did not have clear data to make such a drastic decision.

​

I am aware of the recent Southampton University report stating that if interventions in China could have been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier, cases could have been reduced by 66 percent, 86 percent and 95 percent respectively. But what of the 34%, 14% or 5% of cases that would escape despite slightly earlier action. But this is with the benefit of hindsight.

About a month ago, Singapore had 100 cases, it quickly grew to over 1,009 cases. As at 14 Apr 2020, the latest number of cases has grown to 3,252, since the start of the outbreak. Likewise Hong Kong had just 149 confirmed cases on 15 Mar 2020 but the tally reached 1,005 on 12 Apr 2020.

Hong Kong and Singapore are dealing with a 1% to 5% problem — of undetected cases for a virus with a high R0. Scientists use R0 – the reproduction number – to describe the intensity of an infectious disease outbreak. R0 estimates have been an important part of characterizing pandemics.

By now, it should be quite apparent that the Singaporean government made three important decisions (or non-decisions) that, with hindsight, have turned out to be mistaken. The first was the initial assessment that Covid-19 was closer in severity to swine flu (or H1N1) than to Sars; this initial assessment informed the government’s decision not to close schools or introduce any of the lockdowns or shutdowns that are now (or were) in place in almost every major economy. The second was the decision to actively discourage the wearing of masks. And the third was the decision (assuming it was a deliberate choice) not to take stronger, more decisive action in the foreign worker dormitories. If even capable states and cities like Korea with 10,591 cases, Hong Kong with 1,013 cases, and Singapore with 3,252 cases, who have activated their contingency plans early (supported by timely testing and contact tracing) have struggled, what more could you expect from a large and complex country like China?

 

[ngatimozart]

Forget flattening, could Australia squash the curve?

If Australia is running a marathon in how it tackles coronavirus, New Zealand has opted for something closer to a sprint.

www.abc.net.au

What has started out as a flattening of the curve may end up as an attempt to eliminate the virus from Australia and NZ. NZ has already set out to do this but Australia has mostly been working towards mitigation. If Australia and NZ achieve this it would essentially mean that we could not fully reopen our borders until a vaccine was created. It is quite possible that Australia and NZ may still find themselves isolated long after the rest of the planet starts getting back to normal.

You have it the wrong way around.

First of all, we won't be returning to what life was like before COVID-19 (BC). That is a given because to much has changed. We are entering an economic depression that is going to be the worse one since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Secondly, at the same time it is the general consensus that it will be around 18 months to 2 years before either a vaccine or a medication to cure the infection will be available.

Thirdly, it is my belief that this is the death knell of globalization as we know it because the current crisis has exposed its weaknesses, especially with regard to essential supplies. The just in time logistics mantra works great until their is a major snafu. In this case at the origin of the supply chain. It is my belief that many countries will repatriate industries, especially essential industries, back home.

Fourthly, internationally the virus has run rampant widely because of inadequate planning and preparedness by many countries. At present I believe the US body count has gone past 30,000 and the infection numbers are around 670,000. The total international infection number just broke 2 million and it took less than a week to double. Europe including the UK is still in the throes of rampant infection. It's spreading through Asia and when it really takes off in India, it will be devastating.

Fifthly, China isn't being honest about its own figures, so we don't know the actual ground truth.

Sixth, the probability of a devastating 2nd wave remains high in nations where they go out of lockdown to early, don't plan properly or are unable to enforce a lockdown properly.

Seventh, all of those countries economies are going to be in ICU for quite a long time because they will be in and out of lockdown for quite a while, months to a year or more. The repeated cycles of going in and out of lockdown will be very harmful to their economies, holding them back longer each time. They'll be on the back foot for many years.

NZ is determined to eradicate the virus and at present appears to be heading that way. However it's early days at the moment. The borders are finally tight and people are doing as asked except for the odd numb nuts. If the plan works as advertised, we won't have the cycle of lockdown, some freedom, lockdown, some freedom etc. The govt has said that the borders will be closed until a vaccine is freely available. At present the plan appears to be working.

IF Australia manages to eradicate the virus AND doesn't go through a cycle of in and out of lockdowns, then it has a good probability that it's economy will recover quickly. However, it's economy and its govt borrowing prior to the COVID-19 crisis was not at as good as NZ. We had a govt debt to GDP ratio of 19%. Now it's in the low 20s, so we have a fair amount to play around with if we need to. Our growth was not great but we were chugging along albeit a tad slowly.

So it is my view that the NZ economy will bounce back reasonably quickly, IF the plan works AND we don't get a second wave of the virus. It's worth noting that the 2nd wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic was more devastating than the first.

One thing that I will note about the Australian COVID-19 data that's been released. You have far more hospitalizations per 100,000 people than we do. From memory about 5 times, but I am trying to remember figures cited on the idiot box 2 days ago. Some of our epidemiologists are saying that whilst your deaths, infections, and recoveries are similar to ours when converted to population ratios. What they find intriguing is the hospitalization differences and are wondering why.

So that's why I say that you have the situation back to front.

 

[t68]

@NG

I too thought that government will change its attitude to globalisation, but the more I thought of it have come to reality that it’s industry that moved to globalisation in the pursuit of more profit, industry will not bring factories home because of wages growth.

Take Australia we get 10 public holidays 10 days personal/sick leave 4 weeks annual leave per year 8 weeks long service leave and paid at pro rata after 7 years if you leave before the 10 year anniversary and don’t forget the compulsory super of 9.5% and that is the minimum. Some industries have a lot better under an EBA.

Minimum wage in AU $740.80pw($466.70USD)
Minimum wage China per month to 2,200 yuan ($ 322.38USD)

I think globalisation will see manufacturers moving from being so reliant on China but more to the point it may have multiple factories across a number of low wage countries

 

[ngatimozart]

@t68 maybe but it's govts who decide what's in their national strategic interest and they may designate particular capabilities national strategic assets. Smaller companies may just jump at the opportunity especially if the government gives them incentives. It's not about moving the manufacturing base across more countries, but having the capability within your own country.

There was an interesting comment made here today about the possibility of Australia and NZ combining to manufacture their own medicines and drugs, instead of relying on India and China. Actually India has to get its precursors from China. Anyway I think it is something worth looking at.

 

[Projectman]

@t68 maybe but it's govts who decide what's in their national strategic interest and they may designate particular capabilities national strategic assets. Smaller companies may just jump at the opportunity especially if the government gives them incentives. It's not about moving the manufacturing base across more countries, but having the capability within your own country.

There was an interesting comment made here today about the possibility of Australia and NZ combining to manufacture their own medicines and drugs, instead of relying on India and China. Actually India has to get its precursors from China. Anyway I think it is something worth looking at.

Hi, my first post.
India procures around 60 to 70 % of its API from China. The reason is purely commercial. In the last few years this dependence has been discussed in parliament a few times but as usual no concrete steps taken to reduce this dependence. Maybe this crisis will kick start some action.
In our house including parents, we use atleast 15 different medicines . Didnt find any difficulty in buying the medicines or any change in prices.

India’s increased dependence on Chinese APIs causing concern

Govt initiatives to boost domestic production remain on paper

www.google.com

 

[tonnyc]

I agree with others who think that globalization will continue. The advantages are just too significant. What can be done instead is increasing the stockpile of critical material. Consider the case of Singapore. It is simply impossible for them to repatriate their industries. They just don't have the natural resources. Yet they manage to get through the pandemic better than many others by having a stockpile of critical material. This allowed them to both increase their scale of response immediately and also to get past disruptions of supply. OPSSG already posted something about Singapore's preparation a few weeks ago, so I'm not going to reiterate it again.

 

[hauritz]

The problem with stockpiles is that they will either eventually run out or will reach an expiry date. Stockpiling isn't really a long term solution in my opinion. It really just gives you some breathing space. If COVID 19 comes back strong with a second wave I would not want to have to depend on China or India to replenish our medical stocks. I think to an extent globalisation will survive but there will be many crucial manufacturing industries that will need to be localised. Not just medical stuff either.

Of course the other issue will be that unemployment levels will soar which would further necessitate local manufacturing being bought back. No need to look for cheap overseas labour when you have long queues of desperate unemployed people at home.

In the west we have had it lucky for a long time. High paying jobs with plenty of work in the service and financial industries have spoiled us. Unfortunately our luck might have just run out and now we find that we are incredibly dependant on cheap overseas labour but we may no longer have the ability to pay for it.

 

[StingrayOZ]

I understand both the UK and the US are looking at local manufacturing of essentials.

Australia is also doing this. Med-con was really australia's only manufacturer of surgical masks, and were dependent on raw material stock coming from China.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/inside-australias-only-medical-mask-factory/12093864

Australia also makes ventilators at Resmed, but also boosting capacity at Grey innovations, adapting the existing ventilators they make to a more capable type and producing more.

Doorstop – Gold Coast | Ministers for the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources

Subjects: Australian made ventilators, PPE and sovereign capability

www.minister.industry.gov.au

They are also looking at increasing mask production from 7 million a year to 400 million a year. As it is clear with things like masks, you really need a production line, as you want medical services to be flooded with the things, not meaking them out and asking doctors to hold onto a disposable one for two weeks. Australia had a really large stockpile of masks, which was bolstered by another 55 million in January. But that is only enough to buy time, not solve the problem.

This is where things come apart, the government wants/needs to have the whole supply chain for things like face masks, in the country. Things like melt blown and spun bond fabric have been big bottle necks. Unless you have somewhere in the country that can make that, in a global crisis like this, you just can't be assured you can get the raw material everything else needs.

COVID-19 Has Caused A Shortage Of Face Masks. But They're Surprisingly Hard To Make

China makes millions of masks. But ramping up production is tricky. "Making masks is not as easy as you imagine," a pharmaceutical executive in China says.

www.npr.org

N95 mask shortage comes down to this key material: "The supply chain has gotten nuts"

A surge in demand for the material that forms the key filter layer in medical respirators has caused long waits on new orders.

www.cbsnews.com

How Decades of Offshoring Led to a Mask Shortage in a Pandemic

US companies have shifted production overseas, especially to China. We got cheaper products. But now we can't make vital health care supplies.

www.wired.com

With things like face masks, it was offshored because it wasn't usually a core part of the business, and the threat was they might be cheaper or come under pressure from Chinese production.

In these types of situations Australia has the capability to become a supplier, to the region. Many of these production systems are highly automated, so labor costs aren't relevant, its just no one really valued them before. Its pretty clear now that hospitals and the government will be directed to only purchase from locally produced suppliers, not because its a good thing to do, but because it is the only way the national stockpile and other systems will work.

It also looks like NZ and AU might open up borders with each other in perhaps as soon as a month or so.

New Zealand Keen on ‘Trans-Tasman Bubble’ With Australia, Says Deputy PM

New Zealand and Australia could open their borders to each other if they continue to make good progress containing the coronavirus, according to New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters.

www.bloomberg.com

Winston was on Australian news this morning spruking the idea. Opening it up to perhaps the wider Pacific island region is certainly possible. Certainly the countries in this region are in a different category to pretty much everyone else. Some states and territories in Australia have never had any confirmed community transmission (NT) and some have had their last case over a week ago (ACT), and others are very close to that category (SA and WA). We are now talking less than 50 new cases nationally a day.

The time frame is debatable, but certainly opening up AU/NZ/Pacific would seem to be a low risk way to go, and would be very good for all economies as well.

 

[hauritz]

Just to be a little more optimistic. The world economy actually boomed after the 1918-1919 Spanish flu. There was an economic recession in 1920-21 but after that there was a period of sustained growth.

The Economy in the 1920s and What Caused the Great Depression

The 1920s had hidden weaknesses that caused the Great Depression. One reason was that the U.S. economy shifted from a traditional to a free-market system.

www.thebalance.com

Then, of course, there was the Great Depression. The Great Depression was really a result of economic hubris and almost non-existent banking regulations. Investors were throwing money, that didn't actually exist, into a stock market that was already overheated. Companies were basically just living off the money that was being raised from selling stock. The whole thing was like an insane pyramid buying scheme with the only thing supporting the stock market were the new funds being poured into it. The entire planet basically went bankrupt with stocks being almost worthless. Banks lent money to stock market investors and also bought shares themselves which resulted in them going bust as well.

I think what we will see after the COVID 19 virus will certainly be a recession but I don't think we will come anywhere near plumbing the depths of the great depression. The stock markets are clearly taking a hit but that is a result of the shutdown. Provided that the Coronavirus is at least mitigated you should see the economy bounce back.

This isn't like 1929 when the stock market was pretty much worthless.

 

[Projectman]

From a Indian subcontinental perspective, the fatalities are very low in all the countries.
India- 448
Sri Lanka-6
Bangladesh-60
Pakistan-134
Nepal- nil
Afghanistan- 30

The spread also seems to be low seeing the population density.
Eventually the fatalities are more important as testing percentage is low in all the countries.

Anyone can explain the above ? Or is it early days yet ?
For India the virus timeline was -
India started screening passengers from China on 21st January.
First cases were from students from wuhan in kerela on the 30 th of January.
And as we are a religious country, out of the 12400 odd confirmed cases , 4300 are from religious gatherings.

Even BBC is at wits end waiting for the surge in India.

COVID-19 pandemic in India - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[ngatimozart]

Hi, my first post.
India procures around 60 to 70 % of its API from China. The reason is purely commercial. In the last few years this dependence has been discussed in parliament a few times but as usual no concrete steps taken to reduce this dependence. Maybe this crisis will kick start some action.
In our house including parents, we use atleast 15 different medicines . Didnt find any difficulty in buying the medicines or any change in prices.

India’s increased dependence on Chinese APIs causing concern

Govt initiatives to boost domestic production remain on paper

www.google.com

G'day @Projectman, welcome to the Forum. Yes China has cornered the market on APIs much to the detriment of all. As I've said before here, nations will most likely repatriate essential industries home. In India's case I would think that this would include the manufacturing of APIs. I certainly hope so.

 

[OPSSG]

Public service announcement on sharing fake and inaccurate news; or using a misleading interpretation of select facts to make a political point.

Many would most certainly like to share news and information about the on-going Covid-19 pandemic here or on other social media sites.

1. Be a RESPONSIBLE person, please DO NOT post and share FAKE news and information.

2. Do not be finger-trigger-happy and just share. READ through the news first instead of just the headlines. When in doubt, DO NOT share and post. Search the web, Google it and check with other major news websites to see if the news is correct.

3. Check the DATE of the news. In such fluid times when and where anything can change in the next 12 hours or a day. Yesterday's news or even this morning's news can be old news. Share and post timely news.

4. I STRESS and EMPHASIZE about READING the news article and information yourself first because by just reading the headlines, you could be misled then share. Thereby putting up MISLEADING messages of your own.

All these could lead to unwanted and unnecessary panic. Fake news stops with you. Be Responsible, Read, Curate then Share.

#TogetherWeCanOvercome #Covid19 #Coronavirus

There are a number of different reports on the cause and spread of the virus but one of the problems are the sources of such articles and their bias....

YOU HAVE BEEN ON HERE LONG ENOUGH TO KNOW THE RULES. THIS LINK IS A PURELY POLITICAL ONE AND YOU ARE FULLY AWARE OF THAT. YOU HAVE HAD INTERACTIONS WITH VARIOUS MODERATORS ABOUT YOUR POSTING BEHAVIOR AND STYLE. YOU APPEAR TO THINK THAT YOU ARE SMARTER THAN THE MODERATORS AND CAN PULL A FAST ONE ON US. YOUR FUTURE ON HERE WILL BE SUBJECT TO A MODERATOR DISCUSSION. OUR PATIENCE HAS RUN OUT. THIS IS NOT NEGOTIABLE AND NO CORRESPONDENCE WILL BE ENTERED INTO. DON'T BOTHER MESSAGING US.

NGATIMOZART.

seaspear is banned from posting in DT for a month; and also not allowed to post in this thread (or any other thread topic related to the coronavirus until 31 Dec 2020).

 

[ngatimozart]

I understand both the UK and the US are looking at local manufacturing of essentials.

Australia is also doing this. Med-con was really australia's only manufacturer of surgical masks, and were dependent on raw material stock coming from China.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/inside-australias-only-medical-mask-factory/12093864

Australia also makes ventilators at Resmed, but also boosting capacity at Grey innovations, adapting the existing ventilators they make to a more capable type and producing more.

Doorstop – Gold Coast | Ministers for the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources

Subjects: Australian made ventilators, PPE and sovereign capability

www.minister.industry.gov.au

They are also looking at increasing mask production from 7 million a year to 400 million a year. As it is clear with things like masks, you really need a production line, as you want medical services to be flooded with the things, not meaking them out and asking doctors to hold onto a disposable one for two weeks. Australia had a really large stockpile of masks, which was bolstered by another 55 million in January. But that is only enough to buy time, not solve the problem.

This is where things come apart, the government wants/needs to have the whole supply chain for things like face masks, in the country. Things like melt blown and spun bond fabric have been big bottle necks. Unless you have somewhere in the country that can make that, in a global crisis like this, you just can't be assured you can get the raw material everything else needs.

COVID-19 Has Caused A Shortage Of Face Masks. But They're Surprisingly Hard To Make

China makes millions of masks. But ramping up production is tricky. "Making masks is not as easy as you imagine," a pharmaceutical executive in China says.

www.npr.org

N95 mask shortage comes down to this key material: "The supply chain has gotten nuts"

A surge in demand for the material that forms the key filter layer in medical respirators has caused long waits on new orders.

www.cbsnews.com

How Decades of Offshoring Led to a Mask Shortage in a Pandemic

US companies have shifted production overseas, especially to China. We got cheaper products. But now we can't make vital health care supplies.

www.wired.com

With things like face masks, it was offshored because it wasn't usually a core part of the business, and the threat was they might be cheaper or come under pressure from Chinese production.

In these types of situations Australia has the capability to become a supplier, to the region. Many of these production systems are highly automated, so labor costs aren't relevant, its just no one really valued them before. Its pretty clear now that hospitals and the government will be directed to only purchase from locally produced suppliers, not because its a good thing to do, but because it is the only way the national stockpile and other systems will work.

NZ is already manufacturing face masks as quickly as it can. It's using wool in the N.95 ones. We are also tooling up for other PPE because it's becoming harder to get from China. They're making it more difficult to export.

It also looks like NZ and AU might open up borders with each other in perhaps as soon as a month or so.

New Zealand Keen on ‘Trans-Tasman Bubble’ With Australia, Says Deputy PM

New Zealand and Australia could open their borders to each other if they continue to make good progress containing the coronavirus, according to New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters.

www.bloomberg.com

Winston was on Australian news this morning spruking the idea. Opening it up to perhaps the wider Pacific island region is certainly possible. Certainly the countries in this region are in a different category to pretty much everyone else. Some states and territories in Australia have never had any confirmed community transmission (NT) and some have had their last case over a week ago (ACT), and others are very close to that category (SA and WA). We are now talking less than 50 new cases nationally a day.

The time frame is debatable, but certainly opening up AU/NZ/Pacific would seem to be a low risk way to go, and would be very good for all economies as well.

Doubt it very much. PM dismissed it as much in her press conference yesterday. Winston is politicking for the upcoming election, and what he's saying goes against all that the govt has said so far. Winston is known for not letting the facts get in the way of his ego and ambition.

EDIT: UPDATE
The govt has said that it is working on a "smart border" and that it is in discussions with Singapore and Australia about having a "bubble of three" for travel purposes when the 3 nations have dealt to COVID-19. Emirates Airlines are also involved, but my view is that if it does happen the airlines involved should be Singapore Airlines, QANTAS & Air NZ only. Support our own first and bugger outsiders.

 

[Projectman]

I was wondering why the previous virus outbreaks like SARS and this one suddenly disappeared from China and the world in general. Do viruses have a self life and in case new hosts are unavailable, they just abruptly disappear ?
Found this excellent article comparing sars and covid19.

SARS killed hundreds and then disappeared. Could this coronavirus die out?

The containment of the 2003 SARS outbreak is considered one of the biggest public health victories in recent years. Stopping the new coronavirus, known as COVID-19, will probably be much harder.

www.google.com

The take away from the above article is that though the covid19 is more contagious than SARS, it's less lethal.
Also it took SARS 8 months to disappear from the world.

 

[StingrayOZ]

NZ is already manufacturing face masks as quickly as it can. It's using wool in the N.95 ones. We are also tooling up for other PPE because it's becoming harder to get from China. They're making it more difficult to export.

Doubt it very much. PM dismissed it as much in her press conference yesterday. Winston is politicking for the upcoming election, and what he's saying goes against all that the govt has said so far. Winston is known for not letting the facts get in the way of his ego and ambition.

PPE is just going to be in short supply anyway, everyone wants it, everyone wants to restock stockpiles, speculators etc. There are still reports of countries commondeering supplies.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/europe/coronavirus-masks-war-intl/index.html

Solidarity? When it comes to masks, it's every nation for itself

From government stock seizures to sales to the highest bidder on airport tarmacs, the hunt for face masks amid the coronavirus outbreak has become ...

www.channelnewsasia.com

Ultimately supply needs to increase, covid isn't a 1 month thing, we could see 2nd and 3rd waves for years.

Well he seems to be engaging directly with Australian media. No response from Australian government or MPs. Appealing to kiwi's in Au perhaps?

 

[Todjaeger]

I was wondering why the previous virus outbreaks like SARS and this one suddenly disappeared from China and the world in general. Do viruses have a self life and in case new hosts are unavailable, they just abruptly disappear ?
Found this excellent article comparing sars and covid19.

SARS killed hundreds and then disappeared. Could this coronavirus die out?

The containment of the 2003 SARS outbreak is considered one of the biggest public health victories in recent years. Stopping the new coronavirus, known as COVID-19, will probably be much harder.

www.google.com

The take away from the above article is that though the covid19 is more contagious than SARS, it's less lethal.
Also it took SARS 8 months to disappear from the world.

Here is a page which lists some of the outbreaks of the last 100 years. The article itself was written 12 March, so the COVID-19 specific data is wildly different now in terms of total cases and deaths but it does provide accurate information on past pandemics and epidemics.

The 2002-2004 SARS coronavirus outbreak had a CFR (case-fatality rate) of ~15%, but it was drastically more limited in scope, with less than 9k cases worldwide and that SARS-CoV had an initial R0 of 2.75, but later dropped to below 1. With the current coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, initial estimates for the R0 I have read ranged from 1.5 to 3.5, however an online early release of a research article by the US's CDC here is now estimating an R0 of 5.7 which basically suggests that this coronavirus is twice as infectious as the one from the 2002-2004 outbreak. That is why there have been both considerably more cases and deaths, despite what will likely prove in the end to be a lower CFR for the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Now with things like viral infections, they can indeed just die out, though that is dependent on some of the properties of the virus itself. A virus itself can end up essentially dying out when it runs out of new hosts that it can infect and propagate in, and there are a number of potential scenarios where that could happen. If the contagion ended up infecting and killing all the viable hosts in an area, then the virus would likely die out unless it was able to go dormant until a viable host came in contact with it. Another possible scenario where a virus could die out would be if the only contacts with the infected hosts of a virus were people with immunity to the virus (either natural immunity, or through prior exposure due to a vaccine or earlier infection) which would leave no additional people a virus could propagate to. Now some viruses, like the influenza virus, mutate/develop new strains readily, which is why there are seasonal flues and also why the type as a whole is unlikely to die out even though specific strains might. If memory serves, there are ~139 identified influenza strains which can infect humans, and even within the strains that are further sub groupings. This means that while someone can become infected with one specific influenza virus and then develop an immunity to it, the influenza virus they just became immune to could also mutate into a type of influenza, which they might no longer have any immunity to.

So far, it seems as though the SARS-CoV-2 virus does not mutate as readily as an influenza virus might, but there is still a great deal that we do not yet know about the virus, including whether or not there are different strains of it, and if so how many. If it does turn out to mutate/develop new strains readily, then the virus could end up developing into an annual/seasonal thing and vaccines would also be less effective unless they too were developed annually.

 

[OPSSG]

US updates from 12 to 18 April 2020

1. According to NPR, on the week of 12 to 18 April 2020, the US became the nation with the most deaths globally (with 699,554 cases and 36,773 deaths) but there are early signs that the US growth of coronavirus cases (31,905 infected per day or +5%) and death rate (3,857 deaths per day or +10%) may be leveling off, as the growth of new cases and deaths plateaus. The pattern isn't consistent across the country, as new hotspots emerge and others subside.

2. US President Donald Trump proposed guidelines on Thursday (16 Apr 2020) under which US state governors could act to revive the US economy from its COVID-19 shutdown in a staggered, three-stage process. The new federal guidelines recommend that states record a 14-day "downward trajectory" in COVID-19 cases before beginning a three-phase process of re-opening. The document lays out Trump's plan for opening businesses in states across the country that have been ravaged by the pandemic and its economic impact even though the responsibility for such decisions lies with state, not federal, authorities.

3. On 17 Apr 2020, the US coronavirus crisis took a sharp political turn on Friday as President Donald Trump lashed out at four Democratic governors over their handling of the pandemic after having conceded that states bear ultimate control of restrictions to contain the outbreak.

 

[Todjaeger]

1. According to NPR, on the week of 12 to 18 April 2020, the US became the nation with the most deaths globally (with 699,554 cases and 36,773 deaths) but there are early signs that the US growth of coronavirus cases (31,905 infected per day or +5%) and death rate (3,857 deaths per day or +10%) may be leveling off, as the growth of new cases and deaths plateaus. The pattern isn't consistent across the country, as new hotspots emerge and others subside.

2. US President Donald Trump proposed guidelines on Thursday (Apr 16) under which US state governors could act to revive the US economy from its COVID-19 shutdown in a staggered, three-stage process. The new federal guidelines recommend that states record a 14-day "downward trajectory" in COVID-19 cases before beginning a three-phase process of re-opening. The document lays out Trump's plan for opening businesses in states across the country that have been ravaged by the pandemic and its economic impact even though the responsibility for such decisions lies with state, not federal, authorities.

3. The US coronavirus crisis took a sharp political turn on Friday as President Donald Trump lashed out at four Democratic governors over their handling of the pandemic after having conceded that states bear ultimate control of restrictions to contain the outbreak.

I recommend taking both the number of (confirmed) cases, as well as the growth in cases, with a large grain of salt. In some areas, the availability of testing has (FINALLY!) started to open up, so that more people have been able to get tested. However, there still remain areas (including whole states) where testing for COVID-19 remains confined to symptomatic patients being admitted to hospitals OR symptomatic patients who had contact with known positives OR symptomatic patients who had overseas travel within two weeks of onset OR healthcare workers/first responders who are symptomatic.

Widespread testing remains unavailable, which means that not only are asymptomatic COVID-19 cases not being captured, but also many suspected COVID-19 cases still are not getting tested despite a patient's symptoms, because they do not fit the testing requirements. Further, a number of places in the US are no longer even attempting to do contact tracing which is effectively a concession that community spreading has and is occurring to a degree where it is no longer practical to try and track. What this indicates is that while there might be a total of ~700k confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, the actual total is higher than that and possibly by a significant margin.

From my POV, it also appears that to a certain extent some of the testing might be getting discouraged so that the number of cases look 'good' with a lower number of confirmed cases. To provide more context, the US just recently (either Thursday or Friday) just passed over the threshold of having tested 1% of the US population. More specifically, the state I reside in has a population comparable to that of Singapore but has completed a third the number of COVID-19 tests compared to Singapore, which works out to testing getting performed at two-thirds the rate vs. the average US testing rate.

I will stop here for now, as I could easily get started on a rant about failures of leadership and character as well as demonstrations of ignorance and avarice.

 

[John Fedup]

It’s is going to be interesting to see the Canadian government’s response to any US request to reopen the US/Canada border. I think both provinces and states will oppose any premature opening by their respective federal governments.