STURM

Well-Known Member
And Turkey is very unlikely to attack Greece. What for? It would be an economic disaster, & turn all NATO against it. Any hypothetical Russian help (if Russia could supply any) would be very, very costly in terms of Erdogan's attempts to increase Turkey's standing.
Spot on. Turkey has nothing to gain and all to lose by attacking Greece. Same goes with Greece. Both will maintain the status quo until or unless something drastic happens. I find the notion that Erdogan might attack Greece to shore up his political standing a wee bit far fetched. Turkey is involved in other countries and has a weak economy. It's also very worried about the situation in the Ukraine. The fact that most here are not particularly enamoured of Erdogan is secondary; doesn't mean he's going to attack Greece.

On the issue of Sweden and Finland joining NATO; IMO it was a foregone conclusion in that it would eventually happen with Turkey eventually dropping any objections it had.

Why did Turkey lift its veto on Finland and Sweden joining NATO? | NATO News | Al Jazeera
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
Yes, I think Erdogan wanted to be able to show a statement which said that Sweden & Finland consider X to be a terrorist group, won't support Y, etc., as if they're concessions rather than already official policy, to look good at home.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
So far 17 of the 30 NATO countries have ratified Finnish and Swedish NATO membership, the last two being Romania and Lithuania: So far 17 countries ratify Finland, Sweden NATO accession protocols

Several other countries are close to ratification. The US congress is supporting NATO membership, however the US senate needs to formally give it's blessing. US Congress signals support for Finland's Nato membership

This is very speedy in particular taking into account that things tend to slow down in Europe and North America during the summer months.

Erdogan says Turkey will not ratify unless Sweden and Finland "keep their promises" and hand over people he refers to as "terrorists". Erdogan is also accusing Norway and other European countries for harboring "terrorists" -- as usual, without any evidence:

I think Erdogan will keep up the pressure at least until after Turkish elections in June 2023, meaning that unless Sweden/Finland either break international and national law and send possibly (likely) innocent people to Turkish prisons, or NATO does "something" with Turkey, SW/Fi may not become NATO members until after June 2023.

I previously suggested NATO should consider threaten to boot Turkey out of NATO -- however the consequences would be far reaching. Perhaps a better solution would be to temporarily suspend Turkey for a short period of time (long enough to allow Sw/Fi in) and then lift the suspension.
If Nato rules were altered to allow for the temporary suspension of member states until their leaders realigned themselves to the alliance’s values and interests, then Erdoğan would understand the prospect of real economic and strategic consequences for his actions. As Rachman himself points out, it was the Saudi boycott of Turkish goods, not an offer of economic assistance, that led Erdoğan to seek out renewed relations with Saudi Arabia.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
There is a move afoot to nominate Boris Johnston as the next SECGEN NATO. Boris Johnson tipped to become next secretary general of Nato - NZ Herald. Apparently the Pommy defence establishment, especially the uniformed are less than impressed about the idea citing Johnson's person qualities as being somewhat lacking.
Could do worse, junior will likely be looking for a new job in a couple of years.:p He probably wants to run the UN, nobody would notice how incompetent he is in that organization.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Could do worse, junior will likely be looking for a new job in a couple of years.:p He probably wants to run the UN, nobody would notice how incompetent he is in that organization.
Na NATO isn't important enough for his ego. The UN more likely because his Kiwi squeeze will be there in some capacity.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The Atlantic Council has a tracker showing the progress of ratification of Finnish/Swedish NATO membership, as well as explaining the status of countries not yet having ratified: When will Sweden and Finland join NATO? Tracking the ratification process across the Alliance. - Atlantic Council

As of today, 23 of 30 members have ratified, the US and Italy being the last two. Most of the remaining are expected to ratify by the end of the year. The reason why countries like Slovakia, Greece and Czechia have not ratified already are purely procedural.

However, Turkey will delay and perhaps not ratify until after the Turkish elections in June 2023. Hungary will may also delay ratification. Hungarian timelines are murky.
 
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