NATO

[STURM]

And Turkey is very unlikely to attack Greece. What for? It would be an economic disaster, & turn all NATO against it. Any hypothetical Russian help (if Russia could supply any) would be very, very costly in terms of Erdogan's attempts to increase Turkey's standing.

Spot on. Turkey has nothing to gain and all to lose by attacking Greece. Same goes with Greece. Both will maintain the status quo until or unless something drastic happens. I find the notion that Erdogan might attack Greece to shore up his political standing a wee bit far fetched. Turkey is involved in other countries and has a weak economy. It's also very worried about the situation in the Ukraine. The fact that most here are not particularly enamoured of Erdogan is secondary; doesn't mean he's going to attack Greece.

On the issue of Sweden and Finland joining NATO; IMO it was a foregone conclusion in that it would eventually happen with Turkey eventually dropping any objections it had.

Why did Turkey lift its veto on Finland and Sweden joining NATO? | NATO News | Al Jazeera

 

[swerve]

Yes, I think Erdogan wanted to be able to show a statement which said that Sweden & Finland consider X to be a terrorist group, won't support Y, etc., as if they're concessions rather than already official policy, to look good at home.

 

[Vivendi]

So far 17 of the 30 NATO countries have ratified Finnish and Swedish NATO membership, the last two being Romania and Lithuania: So far 17 countries ratify Finland, Sweden NATO accession protocols

Several other countries are close to ratification. The US congress is supporting NATO membership, however the US senate needs to formally give it's blessing. US Congress signals support for Finland's Nato membership

This is very speedy in particular taking into account that things tend to slow down in Europe and North America during the summer months.

Erdogan says Turkey will not ratify unless Sweden and Finland "keep their promises" and hand over people he refers to as "terrorists". Erdogan is also accusing Norway and other European countries for harboring "terrorists" -- as usual, without any evidence:

Scandinavian countries breeding center for terrorism: President

Scandinavian countries have unfortunately turned into breeding centers for terrorism, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Tuesday. Speaking to...

www.dailysabah.com

I think Erdogan will keep up the pressure at least until after Turkish elections in June 2023, meaning that unless Sweden/Finland either break international and national law and send possibly (likely) innocent people to Turkish prisons, or NATO does "something" with Turkey, SW/Fi may not become NATO members until after June 2023.

I previously suggested NATO should consider threaten to boot Turkey out of NATO -- however the consequences would be far reaching. Perhaps a better solution would be to temporarily suspend Turkey for a short period of time (long enough to allow Sw/Fi in) and then lift the suspension.

If Nato rules were altered to allow for the temporary suspension of member states until their leaders realigned themselves to the alliance’s values and interests, then Erdoğan would understand the prospect of real economic and strategic consequences for his actions. As Rachman himself points out, it was the Saudi boycott of Turkish goods, not an offer of economic assistance, that led Erdoğan to seek out renewed relations with Saudi Arabia.

Client Challenge

 

[ngatimozart]

There is a move afoot to nominate Boris Johnston as the next SECGEN NATO. Boris Johnson tipped to become next secretary general of Nato - NZ Herald. Apparently the Pommy defence establishment, especially the uniformed are less than impressed about the idea citing Johnson's person qualities as being somewhat lacking.

 

[Redlands18]

There is a move afoot to nominate Boris Johnston as the next SECGEN NATO. Boris Johnson tipped to become next secretary general of Nato - NZ Herald. Apparently the Pommy defence establishment, especially the uniformed are less than impressed about the idea citing Johnson's person qualities as being somewhat lacking.

Plenty of Parties coming up at NATO HQ

 

[John Fedup]

There is a move afoot to nominate Boris Johnston as the next SECGEN NATO. Boris Johnson tipped to become next secretary general of Nato - NZ Herald. Apparently the Pommy defence establishment, especially the uniformed are less than impressed about the idea citing Johnson's person qualities as being somewhat lacking.

Could do worse, junior will likely be looking for a new job in a couple of years. He probably wants to run the UN, nobody would notice how incompetent he is in that organization.

 

[ngatimozart]

Could do worse, junior will likely be looking for a new job in a couple of years. He probably wants to run the UN, nobody would notice how incompetent he is in that organization.

Na NATO isn't important enough for his ego. The UN more likely because his Kiwi squeeze will be there in some capacity.

 

[Vivendi]

The Atlantic Council has a tracker showing the progress of ratification of Finnish/Swedish NATO membership, as well as explaining the status of countries not yet having ratified: When will Sweden and Finland join NATO? Tracking the ratification process across the Alliance. - Atlantic Council

As of today, 23 of 30 members have ratified, the US and Italy being the last two. Most of the remaining are expected to ratify by the end of the year. The reason why countries like Slovakia, Greece and Czechia have not ratified already are purely procedural.

However, Turkey will delay and perhaps not ratify until after the Turkish elections in June 2023. Hungary will may also delay ratification. Hungarian timelines are murky.

 

[John Fedup]

Lots of vague promises will be the only consequence from this visit. The secretary should have delayed this trip until junior is gone.

NATO Secretary General to visit Canada and discuss challenges to Euro-Atlantic security

This week, the Secretary General of NATO will travel to Canada to discuss global challenges including threats to Euro-Atlantic security.

www.navaltoday.com

 

[Vivendi]

Slovakia has ratified Finland and Sweden's NATO membership -- 28 of 30 NATO countries have now ratified, only Hungary and Turkey left. Slovak parliament approves NATO membership for Finland, Sweden | Reuters

 

[ngatimozart]

Slovakia has ratified Finland and Sweden's NATO membership -- 28 of 30 NATO countries have now ratified, only Hungary and Turkey left. Slovak parliament approves NATO membership for Finland, Sweden | Reuters

And they are the two problem nations.

 

[John Fedup]

This article discusses Boxer production. It provides a figure of 200 units per year. I am surprised at this low number. Perhaps (hopefully) it is incorrect. Given the losses in Ukraine wrt armour, it would seem replacing losses will be extremely problematic unless tactics and superior technology actually reduces the loss rate.

Boxer armored vehicle production sets up tension between rising demand and supply bottleneck - Breaking Defense

Artec will expand Boxer assembly lines to five facilities across Europe this year, offering production capacity of 200 vehicles per year, but such a target remains dependent on whether suppliers “can keep the pace” of industrial planning, according to an company official.

breakingdefense.com

 

[Vivendi]

A brief summary of NATO exercises so far in 2023, some small, and some quite decent size:

In February, NATO concluded nine days of Vigilance Activity, named Neptune Strike 2023-1 (NEST 23-1). 31 ships, 135 aircraft, and 8,386 Sailors and Marines from 21 countries conducted deterrence and assurance through execution of a broad spectrum of sea, air, and land activities in the Mediterranean and the Baltic Sea.

NATO concludes Vigilance Activity NEPTUNE STRIKE 2023-1

Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO (STRIKFORNATO is NATO’s premier Maritime Battle-staff and the Alliance’s primary link for integrating US Maritime Forces into NATO operations.

sfn.nato.int

Also in the Mediterranean, ships, submarines and aircraft from nine NATO Allies conducted anti-submarine warfare drills during exercise “Dynamic Manta”. NATO advanced anti-submarine warfare exercise Dynamic Manta underway in Italy

Eagle Royale was also held in February, a small exercise in Romania (350 US/French troops) focusing on HIMARS operations US, French Troops in Romania Hold NATO Military Drills

Noble Defender was executed in January, with the first deployment of F-35 to Thule, Greenland. NORAD completes long-planned air operation in the Arctic

In Norway, the combined exercises Joint Viking / Joint Warrier are happening right now in March, with a total of 20,000 troops from 9 countries (including Finland and Sweden). Joint Viking 2023

https://www.army.mod.uk/deployments/exercise-joint-viking/

France has arranged its largest military drill in decades as part of “Orion 23”, involving a total of 19,000 Allied troops over three months.

1er REC, 13e DBLE: Exercise Orion 2023 | French Foreign Legion Information

foreignlegion.info

RAF Air Mobility Force participate in Orion 2023

The RAF Air Mobility Force have participated in Orion 2023, a major French Joint Forces Command exercise aimed at reinforcing operational readiness and involving 12,000 troops.

www.raf.mod.uk

The Drive on bizarre scenes when Gurkha soldiers meet the local French population: Watch People Just Go About Their Day As A Mock Battle Is Fought In French Streets
(this is strictly not a NATO exercise but involves France and allies from various NATO countries)

Around 600 German troops are practicing defending Lithuania during command post exercise “Griffin Lighting”. Multinational Corps Northeast kicks off exercise Griffin Lightning 23

Joint Terminal Attack Controllers (JTAC) from Allied nations deployed in the NATO enhanced forward presence battle groups in the Baltics, have been practicing Air-Land Integration during Exercise Winter Camp. French Rafales, German Eurofighters and Polish F-16s took part in the exercise.

Allied fighters support NATO Battlegroups during close air support missions

Joint Terminal Attack Controllers (JTAC) from Allied nations deployed in the NATO enhanced forward presence battle groups in the Baltics, have been practicing Air-Land Integration during Exercise Winter Camp.

ac.nato.int

NATO Spokesperson Oana Lungescu said, “these are long-planned defensive exercises. In a more contested and dangerous security environment, they send a clear message: NATO stands strong and ready to defend every inch of Allied territory.” Major exercises demonstrate NATO Allies readiness

 

[Vivendi]

Good news: Erdogan approves of Finnish membership. The Turkish parliament may even ratify Finland's entry into NATO before Turkish elections May 14th.

Not so good news: Erdogan does not (yet) approve of Swedish membership. Sweden is still in the freezer.

Hungary will vote March 27 (or later?) -- the largest party in Hungary has indicated they will vote Yes -- let's wait and see.

Erdogan says Turkey will start ratifying Finland's NATO application (cnbc.com)

 

[Vivendi]

Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden signed an agreement March 16 to deepen collaboration between the four air forces.

The ultimate goal is to be able to operate seamlessly together as one air force by developing a Nordic concept for joint air operations based on already known NATO methodology.

The Nordic countries will pursue four areas of action:

• integrated command and control, operations planning and execution;
• Flexible and resilient placement of our air forces
• Single airspace surveillance
• joint education, training and exercises.

Nordic air chiefs: We must have a single air defence system (forsvaret.dk)

By 2030 the Nordics will have approx. 250 advanced multirole fighter jets (F-35A and Gripen C/D/E), 5 P-8A, 2 GlobalEye, 13 C-130J Super Hercules.

 

[swerve]

Norway & Denmark have shares in the NATO E-3 fleet, which is currently scheduled to retire by 2035, & could continue to have shares in whatever replaces it.

 

[John Fedup]

Norway & Denmark have shares in the NATO E-3 fleet, which is currently scheduled to retire by 2035, & could continue to have shares in whatever replaces it.

Once Sweden joins NATO, they likely will be pushing Globaleye as an E-3 replacement. The E-7 will be a strong contender but Euro sourcing will be a factor.

NATO begins assessment of E-3A replacement; Wedgetail, GlobalEye in the running - Breaking Defense

The AFSC capability program aims to define “a new generation of surveillance and control capabilities” underpinned by a systems of systems architecture approach, intended to integrate “multiple capabilities and platforms” for future multidomain operations, according to the RfI.

breakingdefense.com

 

[Vivendi]

Norway & Denmark have shares in the NATO E-3 fleet, which is currently scheduled to retire by 2035, & could continue to have shares in whatever replaces it.

Correct.

The Swedes have suggested that the Nordic countries expand the pool of GlobalEye to 4-5 units and operate them jointly.

Perhaps Norway and Denmark will stay in the global NATO fleet, or develop a Nordic AEW&C capability with Sweden, or both. Countries like the UK and Turkey also participate in the NATO E-3, and have (or will have) their own AEW&C. It will be interesting to see how this will develop in the Nordics.

Finland, Norway and Sweden also participate in the SAC giving them access to another key capability. Strategic Airlift Capability (SAC) | Member Nations (sacprogram.org)

 

[Vivendi]

Once Sweden joins NATO, they likely will be pushing Globaleye as an E-3 replacement. The E-7 will be a strong contender but Euro sourcing will be a factor.

NATO begins assessment of E-3A replacement; Wedgetail, GlobalEye in the running - Breaking Defense

The AFSC capability program aims to define “a new generation of surveillance and control capabilities” underpinned by a systems of systems architecture approach, intended to integrate “multiple capabilities and platforms” for future multidomain operations, according to the RfI.

breakingdefense.com

The GlobalEye that exist today is probably too small to meet all NATO needs (modified Bombardier 6000 business jet). Of course Saab can offer their system integrated on a larger airframe, however it will take some time to do that integration & testing, and it will increase cost. Also big NATO countries that already picked the E-7 (US, UK, Turkey) will probably push hard for E-7. Tiny Sweden has not even been accepted as NATO member yet , so I think this will be a hard sell for Saab.

 

[swerve]

Correct.

The Swedes have suggested that the Nordic countries expand the pool of GlobalEye to 4-5 units and operate them jointly.

Perhaps Norway and Denmark will stay in the global NATO fleet, or develop a Nordic AEW&C capability with Sweden, or both. Countries like the UK and Turkey also participate in the NATO E-3, and have (or will have) their own AEW&C. It will be interesting to see how this will develop in the Nordics.

Finland, Norway and Sweden also participate in the SAC giving them access to another key capability. Strategic Airlift Capability (SAC) | Member Nations (sacprogram.org)

The UK had E-3, but wasn't part of the NATO E-3 pool. Like France, it had its own E-3 fleet. They cooperated with the NATO E-3 pool, but weren't in it. And the UK has now bought E-7, though only 3 for now.