Nagorniy Karabakh

[Sandhi Yudha]

It becomes less peaceful between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
According to Armenia 49 died because of "large scale provocations" by Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan blames Armenia of intelligence operations at the border and the movement of weapons.

Armenia sebut 49 tentaranya terbunuh dalam bentrokan dengan Azerbaijan

Armenia mengatakan bahwa sedikitnya 49 orang tentaranya terbunuh dalam bentrokan di sepanjang perbatasan dengan Azerbaijan, setelah permusuhan yang semakin ...

m.antaranews.com

 

[Feanor]

It becomes less peaceful between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
According to Armenia 49 died because of "large scale provocations" by Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan blames Armenia of intelligence operations at the border and the movement of weapons.

Armenia sebut 49 tentaranya terbunuh dalam bentrokan dengan Azerbaijan

Armenia mengatakan bahwa sedikitnya 49 orang tentaranya terbunuh dalam bentrokan di sepanjang perbatasan dengan Azerbaijan, setelah permusuhan yang semakin ...

m.antaranews.com

Armenia is in a bad place right now. They lost the last war, and have basically 0 chances of winning the next one. Their one hope is Russian support, and that's not likely to be forthcoming when Russia is committed to a huge war in Ukraine. It's one thing to engage in brinksmanship with Turkey in Syria, during essentially peacetime. It's another thing to do so in Armenia when you're already tapped out militarily speaking.

EDIT: It appears Azerbaijan has begun an attack on Armenia across a broad section of front. I guess if Putin can move borders, why not Azerbaijan? It will be interesting to watch reactions from Russia, Turkey, the US, and EU.

 

[Señor Pomidor]

It seems that Armenia has invoked military aid from CSTO. Will the members of CSTO mainly Russia help Ukraine? If they dont, then can we say CSTO is done?

Armenia asked CSTO for military support to restore territorial integrity amid Azeri attack – PM | ARMENPRESS Armenian News Agency

 

[Feanor]

It seems that Armenia has invoked military aid from CSTO. Will the members of CSTO mainly Russia help Ukraine? If they dont, then can we say CSTO is done?

Armenia asked CSTO for military support to restore territorial integrity amid Azeri attack – PM | ARMENPRESS Armenian News Agency

It sure puts Russia in a difficult spot. A crisis in Kazakhstan that required CSTO deployment right before the war, and now a crisis requiring CSTO involvement during the war. Don't help and undo all the gains the CSTO got from the KZ deployment. Respond, and face a two-front war with western proxies in two theaters, when you can't even win one.

I don't know if it will be "done" but it will go back to the nebulous state of "is this even a real alliance?". I also don't see what Russia can credibly do here. This is the kind of small war that Russia could probably have handled well using VDV, SpN, Marines, and PGMs, but all those resources are tapped out.

EDIT: Reportedly Azerbaijan hit a Russian FSB boder guard unit in Armenia.

TOGARMA

Наша информация подтвердилась. ВС Азербайджана нанесли удар по ВС РФ в Армении. Мы лишь ошиблись в одном — это была не колонна, это был пункт дислокации пограничных сил ФСБ России в Гегаркунике. Что еще хуже, так как колонну азербайджанцы еще могли бы перепутать с армянской колонной, а все...

t.me

 

[swerve]

Azerbaijan may be doing this because it sees an opportunity, Russia being both weakened & distracted.

 

[Feanor]

Azerbaijan may be doing this because it sees an opportunity, Russia being both weakened & distracted.

I think Russia failed to learn lessons from the Cold War and from the modern day US. When fighting a limited war, plan to maintain sufficient troop committments among your allies to support them vis-a-vis any obligations you may have.

 

[STURM]

One has wonder what Pelosi intends to achieve by giving the impression the U.S. is favouring one side. Is it really about a "global struggle between democracy and autrocracy" or part of a geo strategic power play against Russia and Turkey?

Pelosi slams Azerbaijan’s ‘illegal’ attacks during Armenia visit

Azerbaijan slams Pelosi, saying the ‘unsubstantiated and unfair accusations’ are a serious blow to peace efforts.

www.aljazeera.com

“We strongly condemn those attacks,” Pelosi said. “This was initiated by the Azeris and there has to be recognition of that. The United States, Pelosi said, was listening to Armenia about what its defence needs were and said Washington wanted to support the country in what she cast as “a global struggle between democracy and autocracy"

 

[Feanor]

It appears another war is brewing with Azeri units seem moving towards the front line, with tactical markings and obscured license plates. Some Armenian units are also on the move but of course it's clear they're going to fare poorly. This comes after an announcement condemning recent elections in Nagorniy Karabakh.

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Iranian troops were also spotted moving near the Azeri border but it's unlikely they will interfere directly.

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[Feanor]

The third Nagorny Karabakh war has begun. Azerbaijan has decided not to wait for the current agreement to expire, and to finish off the separatist state. It appears Armenia will not be defending Karabakh, which practically seals its fate. Given Pashinyan's political course, this was inevitable. Protests have broken out in Armenia. Realistically even with a massive re-armament effort and mobilization from the last war it's unclear Armenia would have been able to win this fight. As it stands, the outcome is predetermined.

 

[Ananda]

Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis Intensifies With Azerbaijani

Azerbaijan launches a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, escalating tensions with Armenia and putting civilians and Russian peacekeepers in the region at risk.

oilprice.com

This article summarizes recent developments on Karabakh. Just make me wonder tough. If Armenian under present conditions can't effectively defend and support their enclave in Karabakh. If Russian peace keeping operations can't be support more (due Russian engagement in Ukraine). If Azeri manage to clean up the enclave. Will the conflict then going to stop?

Azerbaijan also have their own enclave seperate by Armenian proper. Will Armenian going to cross the line on that enclave as retribution on lossing Karabakh enclave?

 

[Feanor]

Reportedly Russian peacekeepers evacuated 1800 civilians from Karabakh. I think shows us the nature of Russian involvement here. While Pashinyan and Co. sit on their hands and pretend it's Russia's fault, Russia will evacuate the civilians, and Azerbaijan will mop up the rebel forces.

Kotsnews

В течение сегодняшнего дня российские миротворцы эвакуировали более 1,8 тыс. мирных жителей Арцаха. Все они обеспечены местами для проживания и горячим питанием. @sashakots

t.me

Peacekeeper

"Военнослужащими Российского миротворческого контингента организована эвакуация мирного населения Нагорного Карабаха из наиболее опасных районов, а также оказание медицинской помощи пострадавшим мирным жителям. Медицинскими работниками оказана помощь девяти раненым гражданам, в том числе четырем...

t.me

Meanwhile protests have reached the Russian embassy in a hilarious piece of irony.

Осведомитель

Поиски виноватых в текущем разгроме Карабаха привели армян к посольству России, где вот уже несколько часов крупный митинг скандирует различные лозунги против российских военных, страны и ОДКБ. Осталось понять почему все эти мужчины с площади до сих пор не в окопах Карабаха. Наверное, Россия...

t.me

 

[T.C.P]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16mmoi2
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16mwb3a

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16mn111
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16mqeus
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16mrk60
Azerbaijani TB2 targeting Armenian artillery 19.09.2023

Azerbaijani TB2 ucav strikes on Armenian positions continue

Man this is going to be worse than 2020. Azeris now have more UCAvs, more munitions and veteran drone operators.

I am waiting on Turkish channels to start showing the first performance of the AKincis

 

[ImperatorOrbis]

The big question is, will Azeris try to annex a land bridge to its west exclave.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis Intensifies With Azerbaijani

Azerbaijan launches a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, escalating tensions with Armenia and putting civilians and Russian peacekeepers in the region at risk.

oilprice.com

This article summarizes recent developments on Karabakh. Just make me wonder tough. If Armenian under present conditions can't effectively defend and support their enclave in Karabakh. If Russian peace keeping operations can't be support more (due Russian engagement in Ukraine). If Azeri manage to clean up the enclave. Will the conflict then going to stop?

Azerbaijan also have their own enclave seperate by Armenian proper. Will Armenian going to cross the line on that enclave as retribution on lossing Karabakh enclave?

The borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are both weird. A logic solution is to move all the Azerbaijani from Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (the landlocked exclave of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the west) to Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh to Nakhchivan. But this idea comes from me, an outsider with no knowledge about these countries and maybe these people are living for generations on their land and migrating 600.000+ people with their belongings isn't that simple.

 

[Ananda]

A logic solutios to move all the Azerbaijani from Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (the landlocked exclave of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the west) to Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh to Nakhchivan.

This is part of USSR legacies that has not been completely resolve. It's like or not, also related to Russia-Ukraine war. Part of USSR legacies thats still not be resolve. Off course saying this is part of USSR legacies is not acceptance by some in Western media and publics. However it is related on that. Part of ethnics divisions that has to be resolve, like it or not.

I also from outsiders perspective thinking it is better for Armenian and Azerbaijan trading enclaves. Something that Azerbaijan will not accepted. Azerbaijan enclaves Nakhchivan is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, while Nagorno Kharabach is not recognized internationally as part of Armenia.

Perhaps @Feanor has more assesment on this matter.

 

[Ananda]

Seems cease fire has been reach.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1704425070603436426

The Artsakh defense force (the Armenia militia in the enclave) will be disarm. Basically the enclave security against Azerbaijan (the way I see it) left in the hand of Russian peacekeepers.

 

[Feanor]

It appears the fight is over. Armenia has not gotten involved, and the NKR forces have ceased resistance. According to Russian sources, the heavy equipment will go to Armenia.

Карабах капитулирует

Карабах капитулирует В Карабахе сообщают, что сегодня с 13-00 огонь будет прекращен. Договоренность о прекращении огня достигнута при посредничестве российского миротворческого контингента. Армения выведет тяжелую технику из Карабаха и разоружит военные формирования в НКР. 21 сентября пройдут…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Refugees are sitting in the Stepanakert airport. It's likely a mass exodus of population will follow. Reportedly Russia has now evacuated over 2200 people, though I'm not seeing where they evacuated them to (the peacekeepers base is mentioned but I don't know where it is located). We are likely to see a mass exodus of NKR civilians, almost exclusively Armenians, from the area, likely into Armenia proper.

В аэропорту Степанакерта

Армянские беженцы в аэропорту Степанакерта. Ждут решения своей судьбы. Очевидно, что значительная часть армян уедет из Карабаха. Так завершается история Нагорно-Карабахской Республики. Роковоым дня НКР стал день прихода к власти в Ереване Пашиняна. Топор занесенный 5 лет назад опустился. PS. За…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Colonelcassad

За первые сутки войны российские миротворцы вывезли из районов боевых действий более 1800 человек, из них значительное количество - дети. Армян размещают на базе российских миротворцев, где обеспечивают питание и оказывают при необходимости медицинскую помощь. Кол-во спасенных жителей Карабаха...

t.me

There is an unconfirmed report of a Russian car carrying peacekeepers getting shot up, and the occupants killed. Details are lacking. It was returning from an observation post.

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[swerve]

The borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are both weird. A logic solution is to move all the Azerbaijani from Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (the landlocked exclave of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the west) to Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh to Nakhchivan. But this idea comes from me, an outsider with no knowledge about these countries and maybe these people are living for generations on their land and migrating 600.000+ people with their belongings isn't that simple.

The borders were drawn on the assumption that they'd both remain in the USSR permanently. In that context they're not really weird.

 

[Feanor]

Civilians, presumably Armenian, have begun an exodus from Karabakh. Reportedly 5000 have left already and as many as 120 000 are expected to. Armenia will clearly have a hard time absorbing them, but ultimately there's nothing impossible here, especially considering the population of Armenia is shrinking. Of course now that Karabakh is gone, a corridor to Nakhichevan' may be the next target for an Azeri offensive.

Исход из Карабаха

В Карабахе продолжает исход армян в Армению. Власти Карабаха заявляют, что уедет 120 000 человек. Пока что уехало 5000. Степанакерт уже подключен к энергосистеме Азерйбаджана, скоро все остальное подключат. После перехода города под контроль Азербайджана его переименуют в Ханкенди. В самой Армении…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

 

[koxinga]

Given Azerbaijan's recent success in Nagorno-Karabakh, are there chances that they will try to do more, perhaps to take over the landbridge to Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic?