Since it's currently in the press here again:
- Per current plans it looks like the Bundeswehr is intending to cancel participation in the French-Spanish Tiger Mk III upgrade.
- They would therefore then phase out Tiger long-term over an extended timeframe between 2031 and 2038, i.e. after a total in-service time for the helicopter type of 35 years.
- Rumours-wise this would occur with a possible gradual annual reduction of the fleet by 5-6 helicopters over that timeframe.
- The beginning of this phase-out (2031) broadly coincides with the limits of practical usability in German service without upgrades, primarily with regard to carried missiles.
- It is planned to extend usability of HOT 2/3 as primary anti-tank missile system for German Tigers to 2032 (previously 2027).
- In addition integrating Spike-LR2 (or other variant, ER2 has been mentioned before) as a replacement is being evaluated, with a possible earliest introduction in 2030.
- Notably PARS3 LR (MBDA Trigat-LR / A3CG) is not being mentioned in this context at all. The system - only being used by Germany - has experienced extreme performance issues.
- The end of this phase-out (2038) broadly concides with the end of manufacturer warranty (in the sense of ensured supply availability) for critical components such as transmission or fire-control systems. This warranty in the German contracts was laid down as 20.5 years.
- There is some contention between the government and the manufacturer whether this duration is from the manufacturing date (of the component), from the delivery date (of the helicopter) or the actual in-service date (with the troops). The last German Tiger was delivered in July 2018. The task of a juristical clear-up of this has been handed to OCCAR.
- Germany has formally announced to NATO a target for 2032 to field 48 anti-tank helicopters, i.e. after the beginning of the above period.
- It is planned to fulfill this obligation using Tiger, possibly supplemented by other, unmanned systems (note: not H145M).
- The relevant number in this regard is that under current upgrade projects, 43 Tiger will have been upgraded to the German ASGARD-F standard by 2027; therefore some sort of supplement will likely be necessary unless the number would still be mixed with Mk I level Tiger UHT.
- There are ongoing evaluations regarding possible future replacement after that, although this is more on a doctrine level than a system level. These evaluations include possible re-evaluation of mission doctrines in light of potential other solutions (i.e. e.g. "light combat helicopters" or unmanned systems).
- With regard to H145M procurement as a "light combat helicopter", it should be noted that in the same documents the H145M procurement is primarily considered to be a "quick-win solution" in light of the current "threat perception" (read: Ukraine War) with "cost and risk reduction over longer-term Tiger upgrades".
Primary source for above - alongside recent newspaper reports - is BT-Drs. 20/6246 dated March 29th, an answer from the government to questions of opposition faction CDU/CSU with regard to "Future of the Weapon System Tiger in the Bundeswehr as capability carrier Combat Helicopter".
Most answers given in this are classified to various degrees, the above is from the public non-classified answers. Keep in mind that in such answers the government will only answer the exact question asked; hence some things are not detailed since there was no question fielded (see e.g. PARS3 above).
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