Middle East Defence & Security

[PachkaSigaret]

Either way, Iran has some big decisions to make. Who knows what the BDA is from these strikes. I was under the impression that Israel already pretty much destroyed the sites at Natanz & Isfahan. This could partly be a show, a dangerous one at that by Trump to make himself look good. It's anyone's guess how Iran will respond or what means they have to do so. One thing I worry about is terrorism and desperation.

 

[Feanor]

Either way, Iran has some big decisions to make. Who knows what the BDA is from these strikes. I was under the impression that Israel already pretty much destroyed the sites at Natanz & Isfahan. This could partly be a show, a dangerous one at that by Trump to make himself look good. It's anyone's guess how Iran will respond or what means they have to do so. One thing I worry about is terrorism and desperation.

Maybe Iran did less damage than was thought. Or maybe Israel doesn't want to trade strikes with Iran for another month since interceptors are expensive and this way Iran faces the USA in addition.

 

[PachkaSigaret]

Maybe Iran did less damage than was thought. Or maybe Israel doesn't want to trade strikes with Iran for another month since interceptors are expensive and this way Iran faces the USA in addition.

One thing I haven't hear much of any update on is Bushehr Nuclear Plant. That hasn't been struck yet. According to Putin there are Russian workers still on site.

Putin says Russian personnel still working at the Bushehr nuclear reactor; have not been evacuated

 

[Big_Zucchini]

None of the examples you give are examples of regime change by bombing.
Syria was a result of the Syrian Civil War which effectively began in 2011.
Lebanon has Parliamentary elections, the last of which was in 2022.
The Houthi Regime was not removed by a bombing Campaign.
My understanding is there has never been a Regime change by a bombing Campaign.

TLDR:
Hezbollah was de facto ruler. Lebanon's central government became dominant power after bombing campaign.


NTLDR:
Lebanon had a facade of a democratically elected government, but it has been dysfunctional for years, while pre-war Hezbollah was the sovereign even when it was functional. Hezbollah had near total control over military affairs and the LAF was severely under-powered.
A bombing campaign later, the Lebanese government emerged out of a political crisis (created by Hezbollah parties), and is now gradually asserting sovereignty over southern Lebanon particularly and other areas as well.
This is effectively an exchange of power.

Syria was a 2 for 1. With Hezbollah out of the picture, via bombing, Assad's army presented no resistance and immediately died.

I think collective west pretty divided on issue with Israel, with Iran and basically how to handle potential war in Middle East. This is not the situation in 22 when Russia invade Ukraine where pretty much collective west united to support Ukraine.

The collective west is equally divided on Ukraine. It just manifests differently.

I think the ultimate aim is regime change. Whether it is as a direct result of this war or whether it happens later remains to be seen. It would not surprise me at all if we eventually find out that Israel received a lot of help from an Iranian Underground movement.

Israeli targeting choices still do not indicate practical work toward regime change. The US has so far only struck nuclear and/or military targets. It could change in the coming hours and days, but as of right now there is no practical evidence for a push for regime change, even if the US seems to prepare an alternative government in exile.[/QUOTE]