Is the US losing its position as the world sole superpower due to covid-19?
- Thread starter Firas607
- Start date
- Status
Mod Team Guidance: This is a general guidance to all who intend to post in this thread and not directed to anyone specific.
As I survey sources, this topic seems to dwell on international and domestic politics of the US. Under forum rules, discussion of politics is prohibited apart from that which is directly involved with or impacts defense matters, like procurement and budgetary decisions. If contributing DT members are unable to establish a link to weapons, military tactics or other defence matters in each new post — and if any further discussions in this thread are only related to US politics — this thread might have to be paused. Whether it remains open or closed thereafter will be pending a fuller Mod Team discussion.
Kindly note that in this forum, the onus of providing proof or providing supporting information is on the person who makes the assertion or statement of belief.
Have fun posting but please read the Forum rules, before posting. This is a private forum with established rules of behaviour. Accept them or leave. This includes rules 14, 15, 17, 18 and 23, as follows:
As I survey sources, this topic seems to dwell on international and domestic politics of the US. Under forum rules, discussion of politics is prohibited apart from that which is directly involved with or impacts defense matters, like procurement and budgetary decisions. If contributing DT members are unable to establish a link to weapons, military tactics or other defence matters in each new post — and if any further discussions in this thread are only related to US politics — this thread might have to be paused. Whether it remains open or closed thereafter will be pending a fuller Mod Team discussion.
Kindly note that in this forum, the onus of providing proof or providing supporting information is on the person who makes the assertion or statement of belief.
Have fun posting but please read the Forum rules, before posting. This is a private forum with established rules of behaviour. Accept them or leave. This includes rules 14, 15, 17, 18 and 23, as follows:
14. You must post source of your information/articles ( link, website, book, magazine, etc.).
15. You must have fun and let others do the same.
...
17. Do not make one-liner posts.
18. Discussion of politics is prohibited apart from that which is directly involved with or impacts defense matters, like procurement and budgetary decisions.
...
23. There is both an expectation and requirement that members will put some effort into what they post with research, providing facts and links where appropriate and associated posting behaviors, to maintain the quality and level of discussion on DefenceTalk
Last edited:
buffy9
Well-Known Member
The US definitely acted late and did not implemented the appropriate measures required to combat the virus. I've seen people defend the US because "it is a lot bigger," but it is very clear a lot more could have been done earlier to prevent the current situation.
That being said, China is also not benefiting from this crisis and I dare say it is suffering worse setbacks than America, at least in terms of it's more grand goals of increasing influence (as major powers do). It has suffered an image blow due to it's early censorship whilst the general view of China as a one stop shop has taken a serious hit, as there becomes less flexibility in supply chains. Not to mention the debt risk to many partners in the BRI, many of which may be feeling a lack of future investment more strongly than either the US or China.
China Confronts Major Risk of Debt Crisis on the Belt and Road Due to Pandemic
Debt distress along the Belt and Road will be a serious threat to China’s own financial sustainability and to the operations of Chinese companies overseas.
thediplomat.com
That said, poor US leadership is never good for diplomacy. There is an upcoming election, so it will be interesting to see how any competitors (which appears to be Joe Biden) shift the wider debate.
Don't wish to contribute to a possible dead thread, but it is easy to miss the effects of the virus on China (and the wider world) when compared to the US focus in the media.
Last edited:
It could depend on the definition of what is a "Global Superpower" China has certainly engaged in a significant naval buildup along with its Belt and Road developments would meet the criteria of "Dominant" position in global influence ,this has come on the back of a strong economy though and the economic effects of the Corona virus on the Global let alone Chinese economy is still not identified if the market for Chinas exports are poor ,does China have enough domestic demand to make up the shortfall
www.nytimes.com
There also may be some demands on China to assist those nations it had engaged with in its Belt and Road development if these nations are no longer able to proceed with this what happens?
Coronavirus Could End China’s Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak (Published 2020)
The weakness raises the possibility that the Chinese economy may have shrunk in the first quarter of this year. It would be the first contraction since 1976.
The shift from multi-polar to a “G-Zero” world
1. Without a basic conceptual understanding of what is a superpower and the time frame, this discussion will be unproductive and circular. Let me provide some background and context. In 1944, WTR Fox used the word superpower to refer to the US, USSR and Britain to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which — these 3 states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. Since then, the British (Jan 1968) and Soviet (Dec 1991) empires have collapsed leaving the US as sole superpower, for an unipolar moment before the arrival of the multi-polar world order. But this multi-polar order exists in different dimensions beyond just military power. And in the military realm, the US defence budget of US$652.2 billion in FY2019 is unrivalled globally.
2. The basic components of superpower stature may be measured along four axes of power: military, economic, political, and cultural. Other than economic and military power, the other dimensions is perhaps better understood in what Joseph Nye calls ‘soft power.’ But ‘soft power’ by itself does not determine a state’s options in a crisis. I will clarify this discussion by seeking answers to 3 questions:
4. In the economic realm, despite the preeminence of the US dollar, there is something that resembles multi-polarity. By 2025, six emerging economies - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey - will collectively account for about one-half of global growth. As they pursue growth opportunities abroad and are encouraged by improved polices at home, emerging-market corporations will play an increasingly prominent role in global business and cross-border investment, while large pools of capital within their borders will allow emerging economies to become key players in financial markets.
5. When it is all said and done history will not be kind to Trump for winning the Olympics of incompetence — the Washington Post reported on the steady drumbeat of coronavirus warnings that the intelligence community presented to the White House in Jan and Feb 2020.
6. And this coronavirus pandemic is a real stress test of governmental competence or lack thereof in this case — Jan 2020 memos by a top White House official warning about the pandemic at the same time the President was dismissing it demonstrate Trump’s incompetence. Navarro’s memo recommended immediate federal investment in PPE for health care workers. But federal agencies largely held off on such expenditures until mid-March. If Trump really did not learn of Navarro’s memo until media reports, it’s an indictment of his administration — after all, of a top official’s memo states that as many as 1 to 2 million Americans could die from a deadly disease would be worth Trump’s attention. Further, Dr Fauci conceded to CNN's Jake Tapper that earlier mitigation efforts could have saved more lives and again called for a cautious reopening of the nation, despite Trump's calls to quickly restart the economy. President Donald Trump fueled more speculation about the future of Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday, retweeting a conservative who called for the top infectious disease specialist to be fired after he said in a CNN interview more could have been done to prevent the spread of coronavirus.
7. The current coronavirus pandemic is not a black swan event, as even previous Bush and Obama administrations were aware of the risks and dangers of a pandemic. See link to a transcript of Bush’s 2005 speech on pandemic flu strategy, where George Bush said:
8. Looking back in history, former US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton at her state visit to New Zealand was one of the first to observe “a shifting balance of power to a more multi-polar world as opposed to the Cold War model of a bipolar world”. As such, she and the Obama tried to recognise its emergence and retain American influence. But that path to multilateralism has been discontinued by Trump with his policy of ‘America First’.
9. Despite the Sino-American cease fire in the Trump initiated trade war, they have entered a new phase in their mutual relationship that has been described as a new Cold War between these two countries, or a “G-Zero,” i.e. a world of every country for themselves. While that may be true, the US and China are the central factor in every other state actor’s calculation. There is a disparity between the sole superpower and China, but China profits from “the shadow of the future” and from America’s present dysfunction and decisions, and is thus more equal in states’ long-term calculations.
10. Conceptually, what Firas607 seeks to discuss is the degree that the “G-Zero” world in the realm of economic, political, and cultural spheres will emerge post-pandemic (without the necessary background reading or properly defining his intended scope of discussion). More importantly a “G-Zero” world discussion, as a political science concept, is not related to defence.
11. The term G-Zero world refers to an emerging vacuum of power in international politics created by a decline of Western influence and the domestic focus of the governments of developing states. The term G-Zero was first coined by political scientists Ian Bremmer and David F. Gordon and only moderately linked to the geo-politics of US, China or Russia.
12. The Mod Team will discuss if this thread can be resumed (by making if it relevant with input) or be closed.
1. Without a basic conceptual understanding of what is a superpower and the time frame, this discussion will be unproductive and circular. Let me provide some background and context. In 1944, WTR Fox used the word superpower to refer to the US, USSR and Britain to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which — these 3 states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. Since then, the British (Jan 1968) and Soviet (Dec 1991) empires have collapsed leaving the US as sole superpower, for an unipolar moment before the arrival of the multi-polar world order. But this multi-polar order exists in different dimensions beyond just military power. And in the military realm, the US defence budget of US$652.2 billion in FY2019 is unrivalled globally.
2. The basic components of superpower stature may be measured along four axes of power: military, economic, political, and cultural. Other than economic and military power, the other dimensions is perhaps better understood in what Joseph Nye calls ‘soft power.’ But ‘soft power’ by itself does not determine a state’s options in a crisis. I will clarify this discussion by seeking answers to 3 questions:
Q1. Did the coronavirus pandemic that has spread from China to the world (inclusive of US, Europe and Russia), trigger a collapse of the military in these countries?
Ans: No. The relative military power of each of the 3 countries/region will remain unchanged in the aftermath of the pandemic. More importantly, US alliances in Europe through NATO remain intact, for the time being.
Q2: Does the coming recession, triggered by the coronavirus and the oil price free fall affect US, China and Russia?
Ans: The coming recession will affect all 3 countries, but does not change their relative economic importance in the global economic order at this time. The pandemic sweeping the world will turn global economic growth “sharply negative” in 2020, triggering the worst fallout since the 1930s Great Depression, with only a partial recovery seen in 2021, the head of the IMF said (Reuters: IMF chief says pandemic will unleash worst recession since Great Depression).
Q3: Does the coronavirus pandemic equally affect the ‘soft power’ ability of each country (US, China and Russia)?
Ans: Due to the Trump Administration’s erratic handling of the pandemic crisis, the ‘soft power’ ability of the US Government to has been disproportionally affected, relative to China and Russia. But it is important to keep in mind that President Trump’s erratic and hostile behaviour towards allies is a constant feature even before the coronavirus outbreak. So in a way nothing has changed. Trump was incompetent before the crisis and will remain the same after.
3. After 9-11, America’s politics are mired in greater than usual dysfunction and division. Much of the focus is on economic questions, and much of the heat is generated by the culture wars; but real wars in the Middle East after the US invasion of Iraqi and Afghanistan that is so costly in blood and to the national treasury —and America’s inability to ‘win’ them and extricate themselves—are part of the debate on the degree of American ‘soft power’ decline too. In this crisis, we can see the mutual Sino-American relationship involves communication and signaling. And we can still assume that states, like the US, China and Russia, while in competition with each other make decisions in accordance with rational cost-benefit calculations that can be manipulated.4. In the economic realm, despite the preeminence of the US dollar, there is something that resembles multi-polarity. By 2025, six emerging economies - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey - will collectively account for about one-half of global growth. As they pursue growth opportunities abroad and are encouraged by improved polices at home, emerging-market corporations will play an increasingly prominent role in global business and cross-border investment, while large pools of capital within their borders will allow emerging economies to become key players in financial markets.
5. When it is all said and done history will not be kind to Trump for winning the Olympics of incompetence — the Washington Post reported on the steady drumbeat of coronavirus warnings that the intelligence community presented to the White House in Jan and Feb 2020.
6. And this coronavirus pandemic is a real stress test of governmental competence or lack thereof in this case — Jan 2020 memos by a top White House official warning about the pandemic at the same time the President was dismissing it demonstrate Trump’s incompetence. Navarro’s memo recommended immediate federal investment in PPE for health care workers. But federal agencies largely held off on such expenditures until mid-March. If Trump really did not learn of Navarro’s memo until media reports, it’s an indictment of his administration — after all, of a top official’s memo states that as many as 1 to 2 million Americans could die from a deadly disease would be worth Trump’s attention. Further, Dr Fauci conceded to CNN's Jake Tapper that earlier mitigation efforts could have saved more lives and again called for a cautious reopening of the nation, despite Trump's calls to quickly restart the economy. President Donald Trump fueled more speculation about the future of Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday, retweeting a conservative who called for the top infectious disease specialist to be fired after he said in a CNN interview more could have been done to prevent the spread of coronavirus.
7. The current coronavirus pandemic is not a black swan event, as even previous Bush and Obama administrations were aware of the risks and dangers of a pandemic. See link to a transcript of Bush’s 2005 speech on pandemic flu strategy, where George Bush said:
“A pandemic is unlike other natural disasters. Outbreaks can happen simultaneously in hundreds, or even thousands, of locations at the same time. And unlike storms or floods which strike in an instant and then recede, a pandemic can continue spreading destruction in repeated ways that can last for a year or more.
To respond to a pandemic we must have emergency plans in place in all 50 states, in every local community. We must ensure that all levels of government are ready to act to contain an outbreak. We must be able to deliver vaccines and other treatments to front-line responders and at-risk populations.”
8. Looking back in history, former US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton at her state visit to New Zealand was one of the first to observe “a shifting balance of power to a more multi-polar world as opposed to the Cold War model of a bipolar world”. As such, she and the Obama tried to recognise its emergence and retain American influence. But that path to multilateralism has been discontinued by Trump with his policy of ‘America First’.
9. Despite the Sino-American cease fire in the Trump initiated trade war, they have entered a new phase in their mutual relationship that has been described as a new Cold War between these two countries, or a “G-Zero,” i.e. a world of every country for themselves. While that may be true, the US and China are the central factor in every other state actor’s calculation. There is a disparity between the sole superpower and China, but China profits from “the shadow of the future” and from America’s present dysfunction and decisions, and is thus more equal in states’ long-term calculations.
10. Conceptually, what Firas607 seeks to discuss is the degree that the “G-Zero” world in the realm of economic, political, and cultural spheres will emerge post-pandemic (without the necessary background reading or properly defining his intended scope of discussion). More importantly a “G-Zero” world discussion, as a political science concept, is not related to defence.
11. The term G-Zero world refers to an emerging vacuum of power in international politics created by a decline of Western influence and the domestic focus of the governments of developing states. The term G-Zero was first coined by political scientists Ian Bremmer and David F. Gordon and only moderately linked to the geo-politics of US, China or Russia.
12. The Mod Team will discuss if this thread can be resumed (by making if it relevant with input) or be closed.
Last edited:
- Status