In light of recent events in the middle east concerning Iran's new president moving towards a more confrontational approach with Israel and Washington, and Washington and Israel doing the same, I've been wondering about the consequences of US military intervention in Iran.
I'll be discussing possible responses by Iran to large scale invasion and also a strategic aerial bombing / limited invasion.
Full Scale Land/Air Invasion
In terms of a possible direct attack on Iran, it's safe to assume that Iran will concentrate its response on a purely asymmetrical front.
This can be gathered from watching videos of field exercises and war games that Iran has been holding for the last couple of years in the deserts preparing for such an invasion. In these videos the emphasis seems to be on guerrilla warfare, teams of two on motorcycles with RPGs, hit in run from vehicles, mountain warfare etc...
Although Iran did use its conventional army in staging aerial bombings, tank formations, etc... it's doubtful how effective these would be in a direct attack from a much technologically superior invader.
Also, Iran is known for its support and training of all volunteer militias and reactionary forces in the form of the Pasardan and Basij, numbering in the hundreds of thousands. These groups, under the supervision of the Revolutionary Guard, can be assumed to have knowledge and training in guerrilla tactics, IED construction, small arms ambush, hit and run, suicide attacks.
Lets not forget that the most potent parts of the insurgency in Iraq right now is speculated to have potential links with Iran's Revolutionary Guard. The shaped charges we keep hearing about and infrared IED triggers that can't be jammed could very well have come from Iranian agents.
A full scale invasion seems to be a last resort for America, although there is no doubt it would succeed in destroying Iran's infrastructure and conventional military, it would do little to hurt the regime except perhaps popularize it even more.
Also, it is known that Iran maintains a global network of agents but their abilities are unknown to me. An invasion, on any level, could trigger a response from elements based abroad. These responses, if in the form of terrorism, would be disastrous.
Limited Aerial Incursion
This is the most likely of possible scenarios. Israel has already stated that it is prepared for an attack on Iran's nuclear reactor sites. But what is not clear is what response any aerial attack would result in, on the part of Iran.
It should be noted that the level of fervour and zeal currently present in Iran and its people could trigger a response much greater than anticipated, even if any attack is targeted only to military and nuclear targets.
Iran's responses could include targeting the strategic oil lanes of Harmuz and surrounding ports. However this would be higher than any level of activity in the tanker wars of the Iran-Iraq war, which brought about an upsurge in oil costs. A coordinated conventional attack on one of the world's primary sources of oil transport would then result in increased global influence. Possible support of Iran by China and Russia in such a scenerio can't be ruled out, although unlikely.
Additionally, It's been noted that Iran has been heavily mining its waters in that region since the war with Iraq. Silkworm anti-ship defences have also been installed on nearby islands as well as the possible presence of mini-subs, kilo class russian subs, and a variety of corvette and gunships.
The instability in Iraq could also spiral out of control if an attack was carried out now or in the near future. A limited aerial attack on iran could trigger a response from its all volunteer militia as mentioned earlier, the Basij and Pasardan. This would be devastating.
In a worse case scenario, the Mullahs in Iran may decide to directly target US forces based in near by Arab countries, officially signing their own death sentences.
Iran would no doubt carry the majority of deaths, but America too would suffer greatly if targeted following a limited scale invasion.
It is unlikely that Iran would not retaliate in light of such an attack, the extent to which this retaliation will take is unknown.
Hopefully none of these scenarios will play out and hopefully better judgement will be reached by both sides... but with both regimes at such extremes and with both thinking that their vision is the only vision, it's hard not to think about a conflict.
That being said, I'd like to read your views on what Iran's response would be.:xmas
-jim goose
I'll be discussing possible responses by Iran to large scale invasion and also a strategic aerial bombing / limited invasion.
Full Scale Land/Air Invasion
In terms of a possible direct attack on Iran, it's safe to assume that Iran will concentrate its response on a purely asymmetrical front.
This can be gathered from watching videos of field exercises and war games that Iran has been holding for the last couple of years in the deserts preparing for such an invasion. In these videos the emphasis seems to be on guerrilla warfare, teams of two on motorcycles with RPGs, hit in run from vehicles, mountain warfare etc...
Although Iran did use its conventional army in staging aerial bombings, tank formations, etc... it's doubtful how effective these would be in a direct attack from a much technologically superior invader.
Also, Iran is known for its support and training of all volunteer militias and reactionary forces in the form of the Pasardan and Basij, numbering in the hundreds of thousands. These groups, under the supervision of the Revolutionary Guard, can be assumed to have knowledge and training in guerrilla tactics, IED construction, small arms ambush, hit and run, suicide attacks.
Lets not forget that the most potent parts of the insurgency in Iraq right now is speculated to have potential links with Iran's Revolutionary Guard. The shaped charges we keep hearing about and infrared IED triggers that can't be jammed could very well have come from Iranian agents.
A full scale invasion seems to be a last resort for America, although there is no doubt it would succeed in destroying Iran's infrastructure and conventional military, it would do little to hurt the regime except perhaps popularize it even more.
Also, it is known that Iran maintains a global network of agents but their abilities are unknown to me. An invasion, on any level, could trigger a response from elements based abroad. These responses, if in the form of terrorism, would be disastrous.
Limited Aerial Incursion
This is the most likely of possible scenarios. Israel has already stated that it is prepared for an attack on Iran's nuclear reactor sites. But what is not clear is what response any aerial attack would result in, on the part of Iran.
It should be noted that the level of fervour and zeal currently present in Iran and its people could trigger a response much greater than anticipated, even if any attack is targeted only to military and nuclear targets.
Iran's responses could include targeting the strategic oil lanes of Harmuz and surrounding ports. However this would be higher than any level of activity in the tanker wars of the Iran-Iraq war, which brought about an upsurge in oil costs. A coordinated conventional attack on one of the world's primary sources of oil transport would then result in increased global influence. Possible support of Iran by China and Russia in such a scenerio can't be ruled out, although unlikely.
Additionally, It's been noted that Iran has been heavily mining its waters in that region since the war with Iraq. Silkworm anti-ship defences have also been installed on nearby islands as well as the possible presence of mini-subs, kilo class russian subs, and a variety of corvette and gunships.
The instability in Iraq could also spiral out of control if an attack was carried out now or in the near future. A limited aerial attack on iran could trigger a response from its all volunteer militia as mentioned earlier, the Basij and Pasardan. This would be devastating.
In a worse case scenario, the Mullahs in Iran may decide to directly target US forces based in near by Arab countries, officially signing their own death sentences.
Iran would no doubt carry the majority of deaths, but America too would suffer greatly if targeted following a limited scale invasion.
It is unlikely that Iran would not retaliate in light of such an attack, the extent to which this retaliation will take is unknown.
Hopefully none of these scenarios will play out and hopefully better judgement will be reached by both sides... but with both regimes at such extremes and with both thinking that their vision is the only vision, it's hard not to think about a conflict.
That being said, I'd like to read your views on what Iran's response would be.:xmas
-jim goose
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