Iran and Related Geopolitical Defense Issues

[peterAustralia]

Yes, europe not buying Iranian oil means that Iran will probably have to sell at a discount. However the price of oil is high, over $100 a barrel. It is also staying high for a long time, not starting from a low level, spiking to around $150 a barrel before dropping again.

Remember it was only a few years ago when people where aghast when the first oil traded above $100 a barrel, now it is an everyday occurence. So even if Iran gets less than the market price, the price they get is still well above what it was in earlier times when it was often below $20 a barrel.

Also in the longer term, the world uses more and more oil per day every day. Additionally established reserves are diminishing. When was peak oil hit? Was it a couple of years ago, is it 3 or 4 years from now? The big picture is that eveyone wants oil and there is less of it to go around. Iran with huge reserves is always going to find someone willing to pay for it. Add a 10 or 20 percent discount for an essential commodity for a poor country, it kind of makes it hard to resist. Stopping the ships would be an act of war, so only economic and political pressure will work. Note that Pakistan needs oil, and they are close by.

What annoys me is why is the question so rarely asked, why is Iran so hostile to the US? A quick look at the history of Iran in the last 60 years provides the answers. Perhaps the lesson is, if you mess around with another country like it is a plaything, can you really expect the constituents of that country to act favourably towards you..... something to think about hey?

 

[My2Cents]

Is China STILL planning on purchasing Iran oil? I just read that Brazil just signed a deal with the Chinese.

China signed a “Memorandum Of Understanding” to develop a pair of offshore deep water oil fields called Lula and Carioca. Outside of that the articles are worthless because the production figures are for Petrobras as a whole, not just the contract. At a guess 1st oil is still 8 to 12 years away assuming the field remains a good prospect, the first step at this point will be more exploratory drilling to better define the resource. If development is completed the fields could yield 2 to 5 million barrels/day at peak production. :coffee

China is always trying to get more oil production under their control. Personally I think they overestimate how much these contracts will actually allow them to dictate day-to-day sales activity and operations.

 

[PCShogun]

What annoys me is why is the question so rarely asked, why is Iran so hostile to the US? A quick look at the history of Iran in the last 60 years provides the answers. Perhaps the lesson is, if you mess around with another country like it is a plaything, can you really expect the constituents of that country to act favourably towards you..... something to think about hey?

I often wonder why Iran is so hostile toward Israel. Israel was one of the few countries supporting Iran during the Iran-Iraq War, Selling them a few hundred million in weapons. I mean I understand RECENT hatred, but why did relations not improve during the late 80's between these two. Perhaps that is another thread though.

 

[NICO]

I don't want to double post and get in trouble with the moderators but DEBKA just put out some more rumors out there about Iran trying to slow oil tankers/ traffic? but not completely close the Straits which is a bit strange. Not sure how feasible to slow traffic but not stop it without the situation rapidly getting out of hand. The other one will make, I think it was RIP? that wanted to invade Queshm,happy, well, according to DEBKA, US has 100,000 troops by April on Socotra and Masirah islands.Wow, I don't think it possible to deploy that many troops in complete secrecy but I thought it might be worth a post.

 

[CheeZe]

I often wonder why Iran is so hostile toward Israel. Israel was one of the few countries supporting Iran during the Iran-Iraq War, Selling them a few hundred million in weapons. I mean I understand RECENT hatred, but why did relations not improve during the late 80's between these two. Perhaps that is another thread though.

Haters gonna hate.

In all seriousness, I think (and I'm not Middle Eastern expert) Israel was essentially trying to fund a proxy war and keep the conflict going as long as possible to weaken both countries. I could be entirely wrong on this and I have no evidence to back it up. But such a strategy of playing two enemies off each other would seem plausible considering how isolated Israel always feels in the Middle East.

As for relations not improving... my only guess would be the hardliners. We still see, to a degree, a conflict between the older hardline group and younger folks who didn't grow up during the revolution. The protests during the last elections should serve as proof of a marked schism in political unity. What the current situation is regarding the Iranian opposition parties, I cannot say, though I wish them all the best.

I have no idea what DEBKA is or what its credentials are. However, if you're quoting the "secret" deployment of 100,000 US troops... it's not really a secret. Nor does it seem, in any way, plausible considering all the various cutbacks in the DoD's budget. Within the next decade, I believe the US Army is to be scaled back to 490,000 troops.

Plus, having just extracted itself from a war in the Middle East which has put the nation into massive debt, President Obama will, in an election year, start another war with sketchy evidence of the presence of WMDs? I'm sorry but as much as I dislike a lot about Obama, he's not quite that stupid. His re-election is riding on him making smart moves and letting the Republicans do the majority of the dirty name-calling. Putting himself on a limb by sending US troops into Iran as the aggressors probably won't sit well with the military families whose votes he's hoping to curry.

 

[tomcat junkie]

I think America never wants to attack on Iran, because it has many things to do with Iran. these are just some actions to stir up the region for the arabs to buy new military vehicles and air crafts and also to change the markets.
moreover, Iran hasn't the ability to come over the U.S. military action against that country, in this way Iran tries to just be a nice bravado and say something very ridiculous and just tries to be a part of the world.
I want to know " why U.S. threats Iran and never a war comes between?"
you impose sanctions against Iran but these sanctions just are imposed against the ordinary people of that country.
please try to do something for people if you are the saviors of the world!
If you are!
And I know you are not!!!!!
thank you!

 

[swerve]

The USA has no economic incentive to stir up the region. Increased oil prices cost the US economy far more than any benefit gained from selling more weapons to the Saudis, etc.

 

[Feanor]

The USA has no economic incentive to stir up the region. Increased oil prices cost the US economy far more than any benefit gained from selling more weapons to the Saudis, etc.

Not to mention that the Saudis buy US weapons in bulk even when there is no crisis.

 

[LeGrig]

Iran oil, Gulf oil

Oil price increasing, EU&US economies to pay more money, some others to get that more money, Iran will not decrease production and oil exports, new step to be implemented by EU&US. Looks like options are flying away one by one, since military action looses credibility.
Obviously, Russia and China are happy with the idea of having their neighbour joining the atomic club. Both, they have a relevant muslim minority.

 

[gazzzwp]

Up to his usual tricks again:


Ahmadinejad to make major nuclear annoucement - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

The problem is that one feels that it will only be another stunt to provoke the west. So what are they due announce?

Ideas:

1) Enrichment up to 90% ?
2) Abandonment of the program (highly unlikely)
3) Full willingness to co-operate with outside inspection teams?

We await with baited breath !

 

[RobWilliams]

Up to his usual tricks again:


Ahmadinejad to make major nuclear annoucement - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

The problem is that one feels that it will only be another stunt to provoke the west. So what are they due announce?

Ideas:

1) Enrichment up to 90% ?
2) Abandonment of the program (highly unlikely)
3) Full willingness to co-operate with outside inspection teams?

We await with baited breath !

Can't wait for this, anything they say (from the above list) will result in negative results for the Iranian government on a global scale in one form or another.

Wouldn't be suprised if he doesn't reveal anything new, just avoids mentioning something critical while reasserting Irans rights to enrich Uranium for civilian purposes.

 

[My2Cents]

The problem is that one feels that it will only be another stunt to provoke the west. So what are they due announce?

Ideas:

1) Enrichment up to 90% ?
2) Abandonment of the program (highly unlikely)
3) Full willingness to co-operate with outside inspection teams?

#3 -- again.

Politicians and diplomats parse the word 'cooperation' finer than Bill Clinton parsed 'is'.

 

[Justin93]

I was watching a video about the iran tension currently.... my question is, how much of a treat does Iran's subs pose to our ships? Wouldn't we be able to keep tabs on their assets? Any insight would be great!

 

[PCShogun]

I was watching a video about the iran tension currently.... my question is, how much of a treat does Iran's subs pose to our ships? Wouldn't we be able to keep tabs on their assets? Any insight would be great!

The navy experts can give us a better picture, but in reading and discussions I learned that these midget subs are a credible threat. The two main types of subs used by Iran are the Ghadir mini sub (18 reported in service) and the three Kilo class subs obtained from Russia. A sub similar to the Ghadir (an NK Sang-O design) was responsible for the destruction of the ROKS Corvette Cheonan. Iran, has other mini sub classes but posses only one of each type. The Ghadir is by far the most common.

The gulf is relatively shallow which makes sonar less effective. The Ghadir sub can carry two torpedoes, including the 'Hoot', a supercavitating underwater missile. It is not capable of a reload while underway and must return to port. They can also deploy mines. When Iran says they can close the strait, these mines will be how they do it.

The Kilo's will most likely deploy into the much deeper Gulf of Oman and attempt to interdict shipping there.

In 2008, International Security wrote an article on Iran's ability to close the Strait and predicted it could do so for about a month. Iran now possesses a larger stockpile of mines and missiles that are ten times more powerful than those used during the 1980's tanker wars. Specifically, Iran would want to begin by laying minefields in and around the strait’s shipping channels, as well as using antiship cruise missiles against merchant traffic and any U.S. MCM and convoy vessels.

Iran's navy has put great emphasis on its mine warfare abilities,Iran could lay mines from any of its 3 frigates, 2 corvettes, and 10 fast missile boats. Iran also has 3 ships in the Persian Gulf that appear to have dedicated mine-laying capabilities, plus 3 still-functioning RH-53D Sea Stallion minelaying helicopters. Additionally, Iran possesses more than 200 smaller patrol and coastal combatants suitable for mine laying.

As U.S. mine clearing is based on a permissive environment, you can expect a prolonged aerial attack being required to remove the threat of Iranian aircraft, missiles, submarines, and fast attack boats against the mine clearing assets. This could add weeks or months to the operation of clearing the mines that Iran is able to lay.

Anyway, you can read the full article here but be aware that the current crop of Iran's mini subs did not exist in 2008: belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/IS3301_pp082-117_Talmadge.pdf

 

[gazzzwp]

The navy experts can give us a better picture, but in reading and discussions I learned that these midget subs are a credible threat. The two main types of subs used by Iran are the Ghadir mini sub (18 reported in service) and the three Kilo class subs obtained from Russia. A sub similar to the Ghadir (an NK Sang-O design) was responsible for the destruction of the ROKS Corvette Cheonan. Iran, has other mini sub classes but posses only one of each type. The Ghadir is by far the most common.

The gulf is relatively shallow which makes sonar less effective. The Ghadir sub can carry two torpedoes, including the 'Hoot', a supercavitating underwater missile. It is not capable of a reload while underway and must return to port. They can also deploy mines. When Iran says they can close the strait, these mines will be how they do it.

The Kilo's will most likely deploy into the much deeper Gulf of Oman and attempt to interdict shipping there.

In 2008, International Security wrote an article on Iran's ability to close the Strait and predicted it could do so for about a month. Iran now possesses a larger stockpile of mines and missiles that are ten times more powerful than those used during the 1980's tanker wars. Specifically, Iran would want to begin by laying minefields in and around the strait’s shipping channels, as well as using antiship cruise missiles against merchant traffic and any U.S. MCM and convoy vessels.

Iran's navy has put great emphasis on its mine warfare abilities,Iran could lay mines from any of its 3 frigates, 2 corvettes, and 10 fast missile boats. Iran also has 3 ships in the Persian Gulf that appear to have dedicated mine-laying capabilities, plus 3 still-functioning RH-53D Sea Stallion minelaying helicopters. Additionally, Iran possesses more than 200 smaller patrol and coastal combatants suitable for mine laying.

As U.S. mine clearing is based on a permissive environment, you can expect a prolonged aerial attack being required to remove the threat of Iranian aircraft, missiles, submarines, and fast attack boats against the mine clearing assets. This could add weeks or months to the operation of clearing the mines that Iran is able to lay.

Anyway, you can read the full article here but be aware that the current crop of Iran's mini subs did not exist in 2008: belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/IS3301_pp082-117_Talmadge.pdf

It all lends support to the thinking that if a conflict does break out it is likely to be all or nothing. Any prolonged half hearted affair could result in loss of NATO naval assets since the Iranian vessels, subs or otherwise roam the seas unchecked. An all out offensive targeting intelligence infrastructure would severely limit Iran's abilities to conduct a prolonged campaign. If it happens it needs to be a shock and awe campaign

 

[Sampanviking]

The USA has no economic incentive to stir up the region. Increased oil prices cost the US economy far more than any benefit gained from selling more weapons to the Saudis, etc.

Questionable actually Swerve. The vast majority of Global Oil and Gas Trades are still conducted using the Dollar. This means that they have to use US Banks to make the transactions and the banks charge a commission based on a percentage. Any increase in the Oil prices is therefore very profitable for certain sections of the elite.

 

[rip]

Questionable actually Swerve. The vast majority of Global Oil and Gas Trades are still conducted using the Dollar. This means that they have to use US Banks to make the transactions and the banks charge a commission based on a percentage. Any increase in the Oil prices is therefore very profitable for certain sections of the elite.

Your assumption is that there is always more to gain than to lose by stoking conflicts is simply not true. You are dismissing out of hand, all of the increased economic benefit to all of the rest of the world, especially to the poorest parts, which comes with cheaper energy. Because there is energy input in the cost of everything, cheaper energy would raise all the world’s economies s except for the ones that only have energy and nothing else as their only industry or as their only export. And even at that they too would eventually benefit by having cheaper imports.

True there is always be some that will benefit from market distortions and disasters of all kinds, both natural and man-made, if they had any part in their creation or not but only a few while most will only suffer.

 

[My2Cents]

Questionable actually Swerve. The vast majority of Global Oil and Gas Trades are still conducted using the Dollar. This means that they have to use US Banks to make the transactions and the banks charge a commission based on a percentage. Any increase in the Oil prices is therefore very profitable for certain sections of the elite.

Why do they have to use US Banks?

The majority of international trade is conducted in US dollars. Do you really believe that foreign banks would let the US banks keep all those fees to themselves? The foreign banks just handle the transactions using dollar denominated accounts. Most banks maintain cash US dollar reserves to cover a certain percentage of their total dollar deposits, just in case someone wants cash, but 99.9% of the time it is just numbers in a computer.

 

[gazzzwp]

Ahmadinejad is indeed a shrewd tactician. He is appealing to people's principles by claiming that the whole world and not just certain elite nations are entitled to this energy source. No doubt the Iranian people are swallowing this along with the other 'oppressed' anti-western factions of the world.

The pressure on the regime seems to have stalled again and there seems to be a growing sentiment of acceptance to what he is doing. I find this very worrying. What about his pledge to share the technology to whoever wants it ? If ever there was a time that the world needed a strong America it is now. Once the technology ends up in the hands of a terrorist group it will be too late for us all.

 

[My2Cents]

Ahmadinejad is indeed a shrewd tactician. He is appealing to people's principles by claiming that the whole world and not just certain elite nations are entitled to this energy source. No doubt the Iranian people are swallowing this along with the other 'oppressed' anti-western factions of the world.

He is just borrowing lines from his buddy and ally Hugo Chavez, who used them first. Works for Chavez too.

The pressure on the regime seems to have stalled again and there seems to be a growing sentiment of acceptance to what he is doing. I find this very worrying. What about his pledge to share the technology to whoever wants it ? If ever there was a time that the world needed a strong America it is now. Once the technology ends up in the hands of a terrorist group it will be too late for us all.

Again, he is referring to Hugo Chavez (Venezuela) which has already started building its own enrichment facilities. Venezuela is also suspected to be the current source of much of Iran’s uranium.