Iran and Related Geopolitical Defense Issues

[NICO]

Hi.Yesterday, when the English ships were rejected from the Strait of HormuzوWas threatened by the Iranian NavyوThe ship is a modern claim that you have it, why did not defend himselfوThe Iranian navy escort ships with the passage of the Strait of HormuzوThe carrier did not defend himself because of privacyوThis does not infer that you think they are afraid of IranوPlease give me an answer as to why the ship did not defend himselfوI am awaiting a response from you:shudder

http://www.panorama.gi/localnews/headlines.php?action=view_article&article=8337&offset=0

As far as I can find, Daring left Portsmouth on the 12 of January and is now (16th of Jan) in Gibraltar. I am not sure what other ship you are talking about.

I don't know where the US carriers are, not that I expect that we will get the exact coordinates soon anyways.

Since US and Iran aren't at war, why would a US carrier need to defend itself? I am pretty sure US carriers are "trailed" quite often by Russian, Chinese or other countries, we don't shoot at them, why should we shoot down an Iranian P3 trailing a carrier? I am pretty sure one day (if it already hasn't happened) the US will send a submarine to trail that "new" Chinese carrier...so what? That's part of the game that countries do and observe each others military.

 

[STURM]

I personally think they don't have the guts to do so.Anyway,I was actually hoping Iran stupid enough to close strait of Hormuz and get buried by the U.S. Three aircraft carrier = a kill

And has it occurred to you that any war or skirmish with Iran might have serious global economic effects?? Not to mention that it will make the region, already in great turmoil, more unstable? As to Iran not having the guts to do so, take a close look at Iran during the war with Iraq [which Saddam started with the blessing of the West] and it's later confrontation with Uncle Sam - you''ll be surprised what some will do if backed against a wall.

 

[gazzzwp]

Abe Lincoln Enters the Straight

USS Abraham Lincoln sails into waters off Iran - CNN.com

Obviously the US giving the firm impression that they refuse to bow to Iran's threats. Two carriers in the region presumably with full support from subs and defensive vessels. The correct move imho; confront threats with action.

With a European decision on oil sanctions due next week the situation is getting tense. Can Iran stall any more with the latest offer of 'talks'?

 

[henaselakesan]

And has it occurred to you that any war or skirmish with Iran might have serious global economic effects?? Not to mention that it will make the region, already in great turmoil, more unstable? As to Iran not having the guts to do so, take a close look at Iran during the war with Iraq [which Saddam started with the blessing of the West] and it's later confrontation with Uncle Sam - you''ll be surprised what some will do if backed against a wall.

America carriers moving targets for Iranian missiles.Stealth missiles to IranوShips can easily pass defenseو
Iran could ship to the 20 missiles fired simultaneously toوYou can be a carrier against a few missiles to resist
You will be carriers of fire
There is no way to escape the missiles to Iran
It did not do something so stupid

 

[Justin93]

America carriers moving targets for Iranian missiles.Stealth missiles to IranوShips can easily pass defenseو
Iran could ship to the 20 missiles fired simultaneously toوYou can be a carrier against a few missiles to resist
You will be carriers of fire
There is no way to escape the missiles to Iran
It did not do something so stupid

Huh?

 

[PCShogun]

America carriers moving targets for Iranian missiles.Stealth missiles to IranوShips can easily pass defenseو
Iran could ship to the 20 missiles fired simultaneously toوYou can be a carrier against a few missiles to resist
You will be carriers of fire
There is no way to escape the missiles to Iran
It did not do something so stupid

Wow, I don't see this staying long.

Just to say something nice . . . "I admire your ability to keep happy thoughts."

 

[Feanor]

America carriers moving targets for Iranian missiles.Stealth missiles to IranوShips can easily pass defenseو
Iran could ship to the 20 missiles fired simultaneously toوYou can be a carrier against a few missiles to resist
You will be carriers of fire
There is no way to escape the missiles to Iran
It did not do something so stupid

Your english is awful to put it mildly. As this is an english speaking forum you either need to improve your language skills or refrain from posting.

 

[rip]

Running the risk that I might be considered absurd again, I have a few predictions. Iran has, according to recent reports, has backed down from its threats to close the straight. This has not however settled anything.

If you have noticed it or not the price of oil is still hovering around 100$ a barrel? They say it is because due to speculation on uncertainty of oil flow in the gulf. This is despite the fact that there is no shortage of oil, the supply is up and the demand is down as most of the world is suffering an economic depression. Since this is a manufactured crisis and some people are profiting from it one must wonder if there might be some connection? If there is or is not some people will think there is.

My prediction is this we will see several more manufactured crises just like this one was. If so we can all see that somewhere down the line, someone will pull the trigger if they mean to or not. Yet it will still take everyone by surprise.

 

[NICO]

Iran: Flotilla Of Warships Sent Through Strait of Hormuz Heightens Tensions

A new Task force centered around Abraham Lincoln with French and Brits ships have entered the Straits and nothing much seems to be coming out of Iran. Agree, most of this stuff is for Iran's internal population and to keep oil prices high.

 

[Sampanviking]

I wonder how the US would or indeed should react if Saudi Arabia were to start its own Nuclear programme identical to the Iranians or indeed if the Gulf States started to trade Oil in the Yuan rather than the dollar?

 

[My2Cents]

I wonder how the US would or indeed should react if Saudi Arabia were to start its own Nuclear programme identical to the Iranians or indeed if the Gulf States started to trade Oil in the Yuan rather than the dollar?

It won't just be Saudi Arabia, but Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, probably Bahrain and Oman, would have either separator or joint nuclear weapons programs. There is a distinct possibly Iraq would restart theirs as well.

And there is the possibility they might skip the program and buy nuclear tipped missiles from Pakistan. They would be expensive, but probably cheaper than developing the weapons from scratch.

Either way, it’s a nightmare. :shudder

 

[NICO]

I wonder how the US would or indeed should react if Saudi Arabia were to start its own Nuclear programme identical to the Iranians or indeed if the Gulf States started to trade Oil in the Yuan rather than the dollar?

I think one of the many reasons Western Powers don't want a nuclear Iran is exactly that Sampanviking, one could see SArabia starting a nuclear program or buying nukes from Pakistan or China as some people are already speculating. And as My2Cents says,once SA has nukes, you have to figure Kuwait or UAE would be right next. Nightmare scenario, for sure. SArabia already has acquired in the past CSS-2 missiles in the late 80s, not sure that they are still operational but the scenario of them acquiring missiles with nukes isn't out of the realm of possibilities.

As for Iran selling oil in other currency than dollars, there are plenty of rumors/stories going around that China and India are buying in roupies or RMB, I even saw a story that Iran is taking gold in exchange of oil. I think there is some real evidence that countries are going away from dollar transactions but not sure it is a watershed moment or the exact consequence down the road.

 

[My2Cents]

As for Iran selling oil in other currency than dollars, there are plenty of rumors/stories going around that China and India are buying in roupies or RMB, I even saw a story that Iran is taking gold in exchange of oil. I think there is some real evidence that countries are going away from dollar transactions but not sure it is a watershed moment or the exact consequence down the road.

Gold is probably not practical. A SuezMax supertanker (240,000 DWT) load would be worth about 3.2 metric tons of gold ($172 million). That is a lot of gold to move around (about 1% of Iran’s gold reserves). It will be hard to hide and the price is fairly volatile, so buying up that much will move the price up, while dumping it in a large block could crash the market, and is easy to trace.

Rupees are also very volatile, price has varied on a 10% range in the last 30 days, trending down. You can lose a lot of money between the contract signing and payment.

Using Chinese Yaun on the other hand makes a lot of sense. At the moment it is probably as stable as the dollar, and there is a lot of it traded so it can be converted without disturbing the market too much. China has been trying to establish it as an international currency, so they will be glad to help.

 

[NICO]

Gold is probably not practical. A SuezMax supertanker (240,000 DWT) load would be worth about 3.2 metric tons of gold ($172 million). That is a lot of gold to move around (about 1% of Iran’s gold reserves). It will be hard to hide and the price is fairly volatile, so buying up that much will move the price up, while dumping it in a large block could crash the market, and is easy to trace.

Rupees are also very volatile, price has varied on a 10% range in the last 30 days, trending down. You can lose a lot of money between the contract signing and payment.

Using Chinese Yaun on the other hand makes a lot of sense. At the moment it is probably as stable as the dollar, and there is a lot of it traded so it can be converted without disturbing the market too much. China has been trying to establish it as an international currency, so they will be glad to help.

I agree, gold wouldn't be practical at all and would spike immediately if true, my point was that a lot of "stuff" is flying around the net. I think the RMB would be an interesting and practical alternative already if not very soon for Iran. China has signed some deals with Brazil and recently with Japan? to deal in RMB instead of dollars.

 

[Sampanviking]

Well gents its already happening, with agreements signed during Chinese premiers mission to the Arabian Peninsular last week.

Gulf Daily News » World News » Saudi-China nuclear deal

Inside the Ring - Washington Times

Asia Times Online :: Saudi Arabia pivots toward Asia

Asia Times Online :: Sheikhs fall in love with renminbi

Put this in context with comments made by former Saudi Intelligence Chief, Prince Turki al-Faisal on Dec. 5 last year; “our efforts and those of the world have failed to convince Israel to abandon its weapons of mass destruction, as well as Iran. … Therefore it is our duty toward our nation and people to consider all possible options, including the possession of these weapons.”

Saudi Crown Prince Nayef meets Iran

 

[gazzzwp]

So where is the saga likely to progress from here? Given Iran's belligerence and absolute determination to thwart the west at any cost to itself, I reckon the last thing they are likely to do is expose themselves by fulfilling their foolhardy military threats.

More likely they will try and replace the 20% lost oil trade by looking to China and other emerging nations in the hope that they can plug the gap. If Al Jazeera is anything to go by, the Iranian people are hurting from sanctions but still united in the belief that it is their 'right' to develop nuclear power. I don't see a divided nation but rather one that is prepared to undergo whatever it takes to pursue tit's chosen path.

The questions are 1) What will the UN inspectors achieve and reveal to the world? 2) Where will Iran go with further enrichment and nuclear military research? 3) How long can the west wait? How long can Israel wait?

Iran seem to be playing a very devious game indeed.

 

[rip]

So where is the saga likely to progress from here? Given Iran's belligerence and absolute determination to thwart the west at any cost to itself, I reckon the last thing they are likely to do is expose themselves by fulfilling their foolhardy military threats.

More likely they will try and replace the 20% lost oil trade by looking to China and other emerging nations in the hope that they can plug the gap. If Al Jazeera is anything to go by, the Iranian people are hurting from sanctions but still united in the belief that it is their 'right' to develop nuclear power. I don't see a divided nation but rather one that is prepared to undergo whatever it takes to pursue tit's chosen path.

The questions are 1) What will the UN inspectors achieve and reveal to the world? 2) Where will Iran go with further enrichment and nuclear military research? 3) How long can the west wait? How long can Israel wait?

Iran seem to be playing a very devious game indeed.

If you are making the case that Iran will be able to find a buyer for its oil, with or without using US dollars I am sure that you are right. But for a number of reasons that anyone with the economic knowledge of how markets work can tell you, is that they will have to sell it below market prices. As I stated in an earlier post, they will have to work harder for less and that too serves the embargo goals. And as the embargo tightens so will be the discount they will have to provide to sell their oil.

 

[My2Cents]

If you are making the case that Iran will be able to find a buyer for its oil, with or without using US dollars I am sure that you are right. But for a number of reasons that anyone with the economic knowledge of how markets work can tell you, is that they will have to sell it below market prices. As I stated in an earlier post, they will have to work harder for less and that too serves the embargo goals. And as the embargo tightens so will be the discount they will have to provide to sell their oil.

Actually, China buying oil at a discount would work to the west’s benefit.

The oil sold to China at a discount would displace China’s purchases of oil from elsewhere, freeing it up to be bought by embargoing countries. This would function to keep the price of oil from rising.

 

[rip]

Actually, China buying oil at a discount would work to the west’s benefit.

The oil sold to China at a discount would displace China’s purchases of oil from elsewhere, freeing it up to be bought by embargoing countries. This would function to keep the price of oil from rising.

There is wisdom in your words. But will an embargo on exporting oil only ever supply enough pressure on the Iranian government to force them to change their behavior? I do not know. Maybe the next steep would be to embargo imports in to Iran. No not everything, not food or medical supplies but industrial tools, parts and high technology materials. They would probably find a way to bypass those controls as well but again at a high premium cost.

 

[PCShogun]

Actually, China buying oil at a discount would work to the west’s benefit.

The oil sold to China at a discount would displace China’s purchases of oil from elsewhere, freeing it up to be bought by embargoing countries. This would function to keep the price of oil from rising.

Is China STILL planning on purchasing Iran oil? I just read that Brazil just signed a deal with the Chinese.

http://nation.foxnews.com/brazil/2012/01/23/brazil-stiffs-obama-oil-deal-exposing-presidents-incompetence

Maybe the next steep would be to embargo imports in to Iran. No not everything, not food or medical supplies but industrial tools, parts and high technology materials. They would probably find a way to bypass those controls as well but again at a high premium cost.

Many imports are already under sanctions. Problem is, like Oil, countries are just ignoring it and selling them to Iran anyway.