Indonesian Aero News

[anan]

Hi Ananda, Sandhi Yudha and OPSSG.

Some questions if I might. How would you rate the F/A 50 light attack fighter? Don't F/A 50s, F-X Phase 1, F-X Phase 2, F-X Phase 3 cover South Korea's intermediate run fighter needs?

What is the point of the KF-X unless it is appreciably better than any of the currently planned 4.5 Gen fighters? If the KF-X were coming out soon and could replace the $12 billion F-X Phase 3 procurement around 5 years from now, there would be a point. However the KF-X isn't planned to hit mass production until maybe 2020.

South Korea can't afford both F-X Phase 3 and subpar KF-X. Its one or the other.

If Korea wants to develop the KF-X, then upgrade the development costs to $20 billion and develop a full blown 5th gen fighter comparable to the F22. Bring in Japan, India, Australia, Israel, Iraq, GCC, Singapore, Malaysia, Brazil, or other new partners to split the development costs with, in addition to Indonesia and Turkey.

The KF-X as a slightly better gen 4.5 fighter is a massive waste of money. Choose one of two options:
1) cancel KF-X and simply expand the F-X Phase 3 purchase instead [more F35s or F15 Silent Eagles, depending on which aircraft is chosen.]
2) increase development budget for KF-X to $20 billion and build 5th Gen fighter, ideally with Japan, India and Australia brought on board. [All of them were miffed that they couldn't buy F22s.]

Another large problem with a subpar KF-X is: why would other countries pay up for the KF-X more than a decade from now when there will be so many other very advanced Gen 4.5 aircraft and F35s to choose from?

What am I missing? Would Indonesia and Turkey object? Indonesia's share of the project would likely drop from 20% to 8%. Similarly, Turkey would also only get a small share of equity in the project. Why would this bother them?

Two unrelated questions:
Is Indonesia planning to buy any combat or trainer combat fixed wing aircraft other than the KT-1, A29 Super Tucano, and KF-X?
How many KT-1 does Indonesia plan at end state? Assume only 8 A29s are planned. Must say deciding to buy the A-29 a year ago in addition to the KT-1 already on order was simply brilliant. :-( Heavy sarcasm intended.

 

[Ananda]

Hi Ananda, Sandhi Yudha and OPSSG.

Some questions if I might. How would you rate the F/A 50 light attack fighter? Don't F/A 50s, F-X Phase 1, F-X Phase 2, F-X Phase 3 cover South Korea's intermediate run fighter needs?

What is the point of the KF-X unless it is appreciably better than any of the currently planned 4.5 Gen fighters? If the KF-X were coming out soon and could replace the $12 billion F-X Phase 3 procurement around 5 years from now, there would be a point. However the KF-X isn't planned to hit mass production until maybe 2020.

South Korea can't afford both F-X Phase 3 and subpar KF-X. Its one or the other.

If Korea wants to develop the KF-X, then upgrade the development costs to $20 billion and develop a full blown 5th gen fighter comparable to the F22. Bring in Japan, India, Australia, Israel, Iraq, GCC, Singapore, Malaysia, Brazil, or other new partners to split the development costs with, in addition to Indonesia and Turkey.

The KF-X as a slightly better gen 4.5 fighter is a massive waste of money. Choose one of two options:
1) cancel KF-X and simply expand the F-X Phase 3 purchase instead [more F35s or F15 Silent Eagles, depending on which aircraft is chosen.]
2) increase development budget for KF-X to $20 billion and build 5th Gen fighter, ideally with Japan, India and Australia brought on board. [All of them were miffed that they couldn't buy F22s.]

Another large problem with a subpar KF-X is: why would other countries pay up for the KF-X more than a decade from now when there will be so many other very advanced Gen 4.5 aircraft and F35s to choose from?

What am I missing? Would Indonesia and Turkey object? Indonesia's share of the project would likely drop from 20% to 8%. Similarly, Turkey would also only get a small share of equity in the project. Why would this bother them?

Two unrelated questions:
Is Indonesia planning to buy any combat or trainer combat fixed wing aircraft other than the KT-1, A29 Super Tucano, and KF-X?
How many KT-1 does Indonesia plan at end state? Assume only 8 A29s are planned. Must say deciding to buy the A-29 a year ago in addition to the KT-1 already on order was simply brilliant. :-( Heavy sarcasm intended.

Anan, at this stage we still do not have clear indication whether KF-X will be new design overall or development of T-50. KAI still studies all options, and that studies now involved partners like DI or possible TAI if Turkey joins. But one thing seems clear that Korea aims only for one project. So no KF-X and Other project at same time. KF-X is the only KAI fighter project, whether this turn out the same as F-X (development of T-50) well it's still a possibility.

In such KF-X is aim to replaced South Korean F-5 fleet (same as the initial program KAI submit for development of T-50 as F-X). In other word in the eyes of KAI, KF-X and F-X is the same project. The marketing strategy is aim for country who can't afford F-35 or if can afford F-35, but can't obtained in the quantity it's expected. THat's why Turkey is being approched. Just liek South Korea, Turkey also have large fleet of F-5. Turkey like South Korea and in smllaer quantity Indonesia, expected to acquired more advance Figthers for High End (More F-15 for Rokaf, F-35 for Turkey, and Flankers for TNI-AU). Thus KF-X is aim to lower-end.

Tucano is not a done deal yet. The Air Force still wants, but min-def according their latest statement still have not decide. KO-1 (attack versions of KT-1 Wong Bee) still on the considerations. Min-def in here seems already agree though for COIN to replace OV-10 Sigh..I personally still think getting COIN is a waste, considering you can get the job with the Army MI-35 and UAV.

 

[OPSSG]

Indonesia confirms plans to buy six more Su fighters from Russia

Indonesia's Air Force chief of staff Marshal Imam Sufaat said on Friday his country planned to buy six more Sukhoi fighter jets from Russia, the Jakarta Post reported. He said the purchase would be on the Defense Ministry's long-term agenda, but was not sure when the plan would be implemented. "The existing squadron of Sukhois remains insufficient to give a deterrent effect given our vast territory," Imam told the Antara news agency.

He said the proposal was already approved by the country's president, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Indonesia bought three Russian fighter jets in 2003. The $300 million contract signed in August 2007 stipulated the delivery of six Su-30MK fighter planes. Three aircraft were delivered in February 2009, another two were handed over to Indonesia on September 10, and one was taken to Indonesia on Thursday.

Currently, Indonesia has 10 Sukhoi planes and the addition of 6 more will enable the Indonesians to form a 16 plane squadron, when the purchase is completed. I'm watching with some concern, as coincidentally, three Russian technicians working on the Sukhois have passed away, which resulted in a statement by the Russian ambassador that is reported here. This intra-regional security dynamics could become a driving force for regional rearmament - though both sides are showing some restraint by choosing not to use their respective navies to confront each other again - older news on 'Naval Standoff Between Indonesia, Malaysia'. I hope this does not escalate to near shootings and if you are interested on the larger region context, see also the July 2009 article on 'Preventing Incidents at Sea' published in RSIS Commentaries. .

I believe the above statement in bold is directed at the Malaysians given the current period of tension between the two countries. Currently, there are disputes between Indonesia and Malaysia, in particular, over the arrest of seven Malaysian fishermen by the Indonesians and the arrest of three Indonesian officials by the Malaysians (for crossing over into 'Malaysian waters') have resulted in literal 'shit' throwing at the Malaysian flag and into the Malaysian diplomatic compound in Jakarta. Read this news commentary for an Indonesian perspective. It seems that Benteng Demokrasi Rakyat or the People's Defence of Democracy (Bendera) members (a group, whose origin is unknown to me) beyond throwing shit, have advocated conducting sweeps against Malaysians in Jakarta - see news on this ‘Bendera feces protest’. This group seems to mysteriously appear each time and may be a front for another political party or interest group in Indonesia.

 

[Feanor]

I've heard similar on the 6 additional Flankers. They're all supposed to be Su-30MK2, which would bring us to 11 Su-30MK2 and 5 Su-27SKM. It leads me to wonder whether there is any rationale at all behind purchasing Su-27SKM. Especially with the Su-35S, and Su-27SM2 available (the Su-35S is desperately looking for a market).

Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the deal includes weapon and missile-wise? I recall a lot of scandal in the past in regards to not having any weapons for their Flankers.

 

[STURM]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the deal includes weapon and missile-wise? I recall a lot of scandal in the past in regards to not having any weapons for their Flankers.

Hopefully Ananda has some info on the weapons package. He had this to say on page 3 of this thread -

Sturm,

1. Yes the latest packages (3 SU 30 & 3 SU 27) also included weapon packages and wepons packages for the first 2 Su 30 & 2 Su 27. But what's not clear whether this includes Vympel BVRAAM.

If I had to guess it probably includes the standard mix of Alamos, Archers, Adders, KAB 500 guided bombs and KH 31 missiles. Like the RMAF the TNI-AU has been offered the Brahmos, the problem here is that aircraft have to be sent to Russia for structural modifications to be able to carry the Brahmos. With both air arms presently being short of fighters, both would be extremely reluctant to have their Su-30s sent away for a long period.

This group seems to mysteriously appear each time and may be a front for another political party or interest group in Indonesia.

A friend who returned from a business trip to Jakarta met a local who claimed that some of the folks involved in the anti-Malaysian protest were paid the equivalent of about 10US dollars and were given free breakfast and lunch for their participation.

Malaysia on its part has mantained that it has GPS readings that show the Indonesians were in Malaysian waters. When the Malaysian boats were boarded by the MMEA, the Indonesian enforcement officials were found hiding in the engine compartment, something I find highly bizzare. Irrespective of who's at fault here, we can only hope that future disputes or incidents at sea do not get out of hand as both countries have a lot to lose.

 

[Ananda]

I've heard similar on the 6 additional Flankers. They're all supposed to be Su-30MK2, which would bring us to 11 Su-30MK2 and 5 Su-27SKM. It leads me to wonder whether there is any rationale at all behind purchasing Su-27SKM. Especially with the Su-35S, and Su-27SM2 available (the Su-35S is desperately looking for a market).

Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the deal includes weapon and missile-wise? I recall a lot of scandal in the past in regards to not having any weapons for their Flankers.

Yes, the Administrations has give clearence for Min-Def to negotiate additional 6 Flankers. In short the acquistion divided in to three batches, The first contract in 2003 with 2 SU 30 MK and 2 SU 27 SK, Second batch contract in 2007 with 3 SU 27 SKM and 3 SU 30 MK2, While the Third batch (contract expected by end of this year or early next year) still havent decided whether will be all SU 30 MK2 or another 3 SU 30 MK2 and 3 SU 27 SKM.

I have to recall my previous post on Weapons contract. Turn out it's still seperated from Aircraft contract. The weapons for SU 30 MK2 already arived, while the weapons for SU 27 SKM hasn't (at least that the latest statement from Air Force Chief). It's also being heard that the contract also will included mordenisation of the First batch into SU 30 MK2 and SU 27 SKM standard.
This all problem arise with Indonesian budget allocations that's still single year and not Multiple years which in short make difficult for Min-Def to purchase multi years contract.

Like I said before the Purchase of SU 27 was decided by previous administration which still found difficulty to get additional F-16. However with US already show willingness for Indonesia to fully equiped the F-16 (for existing F-16 sq), and I don't why the Air Force still wants SU 27 SKM.
Few days ago the Ministry of Defence said that beside equiping flankres to full sq strenth (16 Aircraft), also plan to get F 16 to full strength ( 16 - 18 aircraft).
F 16 also another procurement that still not clear. The Air Force wants Block 52, but sources in Min-Def and Ministry of Finance tend to try get second hand Block 25 or 30 and also got Modif Kit (MLU +) for existing and additional F-16.
Ministry of Finance now seems tell the Min-Def that additional Fighters procurement has to calculated the money that need to be side for KF-X participations.

@ OPSSG and @ STURM, please don't try take too seriously on the latest public outcry to Malaysia in here. The outscry mostly in Jakarta and several big cities in Jakarta and South Sulawesi. However you can see most Sumatran seems more symphatetic with Malaysian. Those movement were politically motivated. Opssg, BENDERA is the front of PDIP (the previous president party).
Indonesian political situations now divided like this; PDIP and Hanura in one side, The Democrat and Islamic parties in the other side (aka mostly in President side). Whille Golkar and Gerindra try to play both side. The nationalistic cry against Malaysia is popular in Urban Youth, however those from Islamic Parties against it, and accused the Nationalist as 'cronies' of Israel and US for disruptting the unity of SEA Moeslem Nations.

well you can see it's all politics. When SBY try to negotiate with Malaysia on TKI (Indonesian Migrant workers), this kind of thing usually flared up. The oppositions do not want for SBY to become 'hero' if he can manage to secure good deal for Indonesian Migrant workers in Malaysia (2 mio +)
The media in here which harsh to Malaysia also the ones that symphatetic with PDIP or Golkar (which I said try to play both ways).

SBY by far still the most popular poltical leader in here. Even though his popularity is significantly dip, but it's from 85% to 67%. Golkar, PDIP and other parties knows that rocking SBY before his term end in 2014 is very hard. However what they want is to reduce his popularity significantly thus SBY choosen successor will have tough days in 2014 ellection.
The Armed Forces mostly will stay with SBY (unlest he make significant blunders). Afterall SBY is a General. And in here once a General, always a General. Eventhough SBY showing much syphatetic gesture to Civilian movements, it's expected that by the end he will choose another general as his successor. Democratically, the Indonesian voters still like to have a General as their leader. The question is just 'Who'. Indonesian simply (at least the majority untill now) trust Military more than Civilian on top helm possition.

 

[STURM]

@ STURM, please don't try take too seriously on the latest public outcry to Malaysia in here..

No worries Ananda Like I mentioned, both countries have a lot at stake and a lot to lose if relations get worse. We can only hope that no such incidents at sea will happen again and if they do that they will resolved by both sides without much fuss and grief. Thank you for your explanation on the Indonesian political scene, since the fall of Suharto I've lost track of who the main players are in the Indonesian political scene.

 

[OPSSG]

@ OPSSG and @ STURM, please don't try take too seriously on the latest public outcry to Malaysia in here. The outscry mostly in Jakarta and several big cities in Jakarta and South Sulawesi. However you can see most Sumatran seems more symphatetic with Malaysian. Those movement were politically motivated. Opssg, BENDERA is the front of PDIP (the previous president party).

Indonesian political situations now divided like this; PDIP and Hanura in one side, The Democrat and Islamic parties in the other side (aka mostly in President side). Whille Golkar and Gerindra try to play both side. The nationalistic cry against Malaysia is popular in Urban Youth, however those from Islamic Parties against it, and accused the Nationalist as 'cronies' of Israel and US for disruptting the unity of SEA Muslim Nations.

well you can see it's all politics. When SBY try to negotiate with Malaysia on TKI (Indonesian Migrant workers), this kind of thing usually flared up. The oppositions do not want for SBY to become 'hero' if he can manage to secure good deal for Indonesian Migrant workers in Malaysia (2 mio +)

Thanks for taking the trouble to write the detailed explanation and reassurance. You read my mind and understood my concerns.

...Democratically, the Indonesian voters still like to have a General as their leader. The question is just 'Who'. Indonesian simply (at least the majority untill now) trust Military more than Civilian on top helm position.

Makes sense. The person who rules Indonesia needs both legitimacy at the ballot box and the confidence of the Generals. Given that it is the Generals who control the guns, an effective President needs the support of the TNI. SBY is that correct person as President. This is because SBY has the confidence of the TNI and the necessary bonafides. SBY is good for Indonesia's continued development and is seen, by an outsider like me, as much more effective than Megawati ever was during her term.

And with that let's return to discussing aircraft purchases of the TNI–AU rather than the geo-politics (sorry about the earlier detour). BTW, I may not be able to post for the next few days due to a family emergency that has cropped up.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The last Su-27SKM has been arrived.....

 

[STURM]

Ananda and Sandi Yudha, this is a question that has asked before by Aussie Digger and I must admit, I'm equally baffled.

What was or is the rationale behind acquring several different variants, first the Su-27SKs and SKMs followed by the Su-30MK? The only plausible reason I can think of is that for the1st batch, the TNI AU wanted the aircraft to be delivered a fast as possible and that the only aircraft KNAAPO had for immediate delivery in 2003 were the 2 Su-27SKs and 2 SKMs. Whilst both have a multi role capability the SKM appears to be an improvement over the SK and has a different radar. But why did the TNI AU then decide on Su-30MKs for the 2nd batch in 2007 followed by the recent delivery of additional Su-27SKMs? Why the addition of the Su-30MK in 2007 when it already had the Su-27SK and SKM, both of which could be uprgraded later to a common standard.

Also...

1. Now that the TNI-AU has bought aircraft from both Irkut and KNAAPO, will it have to deal with both these companies for product support or just through Rosoboronoexport?

2. Unlike the RMAF the TNI-AU will be spared a very major headache as it wont have to worry about integration issues with non Russian avionics. What about basic western avionics like IFF and TACAN to make the Su-27s and Su-30s compatible with existing
TNI-AU assets, have these been added?

3. Have there been any official statements regarding the purchase of a simulator?

 

[Feanor]

Ananda and Sandi Yudha, this is a question that has asked before by Aussie Digger and I must admit, I'm equally baffled.

What was or is the rationale behind acquring several different variants, first the Su27SKs and SKMs followed by the Su30MK? The only plausible reason I can think of is that for the1st batch, the TNI AU wanted the aircraft to be delivered a fast as possible and that the only aircraft KNAAPO had for immediate delivery in 2003 were the 2 Su27SKs and 2 SKMs. Whilst both have a multi role capability the SKM appears to be an improvement over the SK and has a different radar. But why did the TNI AU then decide on Su30MKs for the 2nd batch in 2007 followed by the recent delivery of additional Su27SKMs? Why the addition of the Su30MK in 2007 when it already had the Su27SK and SKM, both of which could be uprgraded later to a common standard.

As far as I know the first purchase was Su-30MK2 and Su-27SK. The Su-27SK is a Su-27S for export customers. The SKM is an SM for export customers. The MK2 is a two-seater with strike capabilities, that the Su-27S did not have (but that the Su-27SM does have).

Also...

1. Now that the TNi AU has bought aircraft from both Irkut and KNAAPO, will it have to deal with both these companies for product support or just through Rosoboronoexport?

Either Rosoboroneskport or Sukhoi group. Irkut and KnAAPO would be dealing with Sukhoi.

2. Unlike the RMAF the TNI AU will be spared a very major headache as it wont have to worry about integration issues with non Russian avionics. What about basic western avionics like IFF and TACAN to make the Su27s and Su30s compatible with existing TNi AU assets, have these been added?

3. Have there been any official statements regarding the purchase of a simulator?

I have heard nothing about a simulator, but I would imagine compatible IFFs were part of the package. They're standard on most Flanker exports.

 

[STURM]

As far as I know the first purchase was Su-30MK2 and Su-27SK. The Su-27SK is a Su-27S for export customers. The SKM is an SM for export customers. The MK2 is a two-seater with strike capabilities, that the Su-27S did not have (but that the Su-27SM does have).

Hello Feanor. Thank you for pointing the error. That's right's the first contract in 2003 was for 2 Su-30Mks and 2 Su-27SKs and not for 2 Su-27SKs and 2 Su-27SKMs.

Yes, the Administrations has give clearence for Min-Def to negotiate additional 6 Flankers. In short the acquistion divided in to three batches, The first contract in 2003 with 2 SU 30 MK and 2 SU 27 SK, Second batch contract in 2007 with 3 SU 27 SKM and 3 SU 30 MK2, While the Third batch (contract expected by end of this year or early next year) still havent decided whether will be all SU 30 MK2 or another 3 SU 30 MK2 and 3 SU 27 SKM.

Though no doubt there were valid reasons why 2 different variants were ordered in the 1st batch, on paper at least it would have made more sense for the TNI-AU to stick to just Mk2s. I tend to get very confused with all the various designations for the modernised and export variants of the Su27/30 family. I was relying on http://www.milavia.net/aircraft/su-27/su-27_variants.htm to try and make out what is what. On their site there is no mention of a SKM variant but only a SMK variant which is described as a ''proposed modernised export variant based on the Su-27SK''. But as you mentioned, the SKM is an export designation for the Russian Air Force Su-27SM.

In an old issue of Air Forces Monthly, it was mentioned that the K in the Su-27K [for the PLAAF] was for 'kitai' that supposedly means 'China' in Russian and if I'm not mistaken the 'MK' designation for the Su-30 means in Russian that it's a multi-role export variant.

 

[Ananda]

What was or is the rationale behind acquring several different variants, first the Su-27SKs and SKMs followed by the Su-30MK?

The answer was the combination of limited budget and the budget regulation in Indonesia that only allowed the budget being used in singgle year and not multiple year purchased. In short if the Air Force have USD 300 mio in this year to buy Aircraft, and next year it's expected to have another USD 300 mio for Aircraft procurement, the practise in here only allowed the Air Force to conduct singgle USD 300 mio contract and not USD 600 mio on multiple years procurement.
This made the purchase comming in small batches so does the weaponery.

In the end the Type will only be two: SU 27 SKM and SU 30 MK2. Have info from Air Force chief on Aviation MAgazines in here that stated they planed to have the 2 SU 27 SK and 2 SU 30 MK on first batch to be upgraded to SKM and MK2 standard. The next batch can be all 6 SU 30 MK2 or 3 SU 27 SKM and 3 SU 30 MK2. Personally I tend to believe the later one.

 

[Feanor]

Hello Feanor. Thank you for pointing the error. That's right's the first contract in 2003 was for 2 Su-30Mks and 2 Su-27SKs and not for 2 Su-27SKs and 2 Su-27SKMs.



Though no doubt there were valid reasons why 2 different variants were ordered in the 1st batch, on paper at least it would have made more sense for the TNI-AU to stick to just Mk2s. I tend to get very confused with all the various designations for the modernised and export variants of the Su27/30 family. I was relying on MILAVIA Aircraft - Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker Variants List to try and make out what is what. On their site there is no mention of a SKM variant but only a SMK variant which is described as a ''proposed modernised export variant based on the Su-27SK''. But as you mentioned, the SKM is an export designation for the Russian Air Force Su-27SM.

In an old issue of Air Forces Monthly, it was mentioned that the K in the Su-27K [for the PLAAF] was for 'kitai' that supposedly means 'China' in Russian and if I'm not mistaken the 'MK' designation for the Su-30 means in Russian that it's a multi-role export variant.

I've clarified this before, but here goes. The Su-27K is the Su-33. The Su-27S is the baseline VVS model. The SK is the export of the S, and SKM is the export of the SM.

Btw the contract for upgrading the SK to SKM and MK to MK2 has already been signed. Work should commence shortly if it hasn't begun already.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

According bisnis.com, the government has put $ 1.200.000.000 apart for the FKX project.

RI siapkan US$1,2 miliar untuk proyek KFX

BANDUNG - Pemerintah Indonesia akan menyiapkan dana US$1,2 miliar untuk mendukung kerja sama dengan Korea Selatan dalam pembuatan pesawat Korea Fighter Experimental (KFX).

Budi Santoso, Dirut PT Dirgantara Indonesia, mengatakan proses kerja sama pembuatan pesawat tempur tersebut sudah memasuki tahap negosiasi antara Indonesia dan Korsel.

 

[anan]

Anan, at this stage we still do not have clear indication whether KF-X will be new design overall or development of T-50. KAI still studies all options, and that studies now involved partners like DI or possible TAI if Turkey joins. But one thing seems clear that Korea aims only for one project. So no KF-X and Other project at same time. KF-X is the only KAI fighter project, whether this turn out the same as F-X (development of T-50) well it's still a possibility.

In such KF-X is aim to replaced South Korean F-5 fleet (same as the initial program KAI submit for development of T-50 as F-X). In other word in the eyes of KAI, KF-X and F-X is the same project. The marketing strategy is aim for country who can't afford F-35 or if can afford F-35, but can't obtained in the quantity it's expected. THat's why Turkey is being approched. Just liek South Korea, Turkey also have large fleet of F-5. Turkey like South Korea and in smllaer quantity Indonesia, expected to acquired more advance Figthers for High End (More F-15 for Rokaf, F-35 for Turkey, and Flankers for TNI-AU). Thus KF-X is aim to lower-end.

Tucano is not a done deal yet. The Air Force still wants, but min-def according their latest statement still have not decide. KO-1 (attack versions of KT-1 Wong Bee) still on the considerations. Min-def in here seems already agree though for COIN to replace OV-10 Sigh..I personally still think getting COIN is a waste, considering you can get the job with the Army MI-35 and UAV.

Tried to google F-X and could find nothing about the possible future development of the F/A 50. Could some of you provide more info about this or links?

F-X phase one was KAI manufactured F-15K Slam Eagles. F-X phase 2 was 21 additional upgraded and improved KAI manufactured F-15K Slam Eagles. F-X phase 3 looks to be a $12 billion procurement of Gen 5 or near Gen 5 aircraft. The contract may be awarded around 2014. Likely for either F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters or KAI manufactured F-15SE Silent Eagles. The KF-X seems unlikely to be developed in time to win the F-X phase 3. Am I wrong?

Agree with you that South Korea should only do F-X phase 3 or the KF-X but not both. I Would also increase the size of the procurement order to $15 billion or more. If the goal is a Korean jobs program, it seems to me like an upgraded improved F-15SE Silent Eagle manufactured by KAI is a better option than a lame underfunded KF-X.

If South Korea chooses KF-X as their F-X phase 3 aircraft, shouldn't South Korea convince Japan, India, Australia [maybe Israel, Brazil, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Singapore, Malaysia] to join the KF-X in addition to South Korea/Indonesia/Turkey. Boost the KF-X development budget to $20 billion and develop a full blown Gen 5 aircraft. India, Australia, Japan all wanted F-22s and were upset they couldn't get them. Would imagine they would be good partners to join the program. Bringing lots of money and technology.

From South Korea's point of view, it already will have many Gen 4.5 aircraft [F-X phase 1 and F-X phase 2, all F-15K Slam Eagles] and 150 F/A 50s [which have decent Gen 4 capabilities when outfitted with the latest engines, radars, electronics and missiles.]] South Korea doesn't seem to need more medium capacity fighter aircraft which is what KF-X with an $8 billion R&D budget seems to be.

The only reason to build a low end KF-X is if South Korea wants to buy less than 150 F/A 50s and substitute them with KF-Xs. If the development costs of upgrading the F/A 50 to something slightly better than an F-16 Block 60 are reasonable, and if the KF-X can be developed quickly, there might be a case for it. But even that is iffy since it looks like the KF-X will not enter mass production until the the 2020s.

What are everyone's thoughts?

"Tucano is not a done deal yet. The Air Force still wants, but min-def according their latest statement still have not decide. KO-1 (attack versions of KT-1 Wong Bee) still on the considerations. Min-def in here seems already agree though for COIN to replace OV-10 Sigh..I personally still think getting COIN is a waste, considering you can get the job with the Army MI-35 and UAV."

Does anyone have estimates on the life cycle costs of light attack KO-1s versus light attack Super Tucano A-29s versus Mi-35s versus UAVs?

Since Indonesia is already acquiring K1 trainers, it seems like the life cycle costs of acquiring KO-1s would be the cheapest way to acquire COIN capacity. Light attack turboprop fixed wing is cheap. It probably also has greater flight range and payroll capacity than Mi35s and greater speed.

Would light attack UAVs really be cheaper than KO1s?

 

[Feanor]

I seriously doubt a major 5th gen project will emerge out of a giant collaborative effort with RoK at the lead. Turkey and Japan are getting the F-35. India is getting the PAK-FA. I'm not even sure where you're coming from when you say they wanted the F-22.

I would also question RoK's ability to produce something comparable to the F-35 or even PAK-FA provided limited markets, late entry into those markets, and lack of experience in the area. I suspect if they do try to develop a 5th gen fighter it will come as too little too late.

 

[Ananda]

I seriously doubt a major 5th gen project will emerge out of a giant collaborative effort with RoK at the lead. Turkey and Japan are getting the F-35. India is getting the PAK-FA. I'm not even sure where you're coming from when you say they wanted the F-22.

I would also question RoK's ability to produce something comparable to the F-35 or even PAK-FA provided limited markets, late entry into those markets, and lack of experience in the area. I suspect if they do try to develop a 5th gen fighter it will come as too little too late.

I seconded Feanor on this one. @anan, so far you can found several links on news or KAI official site, and I also found info in here that states:

1. KF-X was not aim for a Stealth on par with F-35, the ambitions (several article on Korea Times, I think I already provide link on this thread for one of them) stated this KF-X aimed for something that at par or slightly above latest generations of F-16 today. This's one ofthe link : http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/11/205_49176.html

2. The Stealth F-X is long history now, the Korean already concluded that they don't have sufficient technology and fund to build one. The initial development costs budgeted at USD 6 bio, in which Korean Defense Ministry cover 60%, Indonesian Defense Ministry cover 20%, and the rest 20% KAI plan to found another Aero Industry to fund it, or they have to cover it from their own fund. With that kind of Money KF-X surely won't be a 5th Gen Stealth fighter.

3. Korea aim to replaced their F-5 fleet with KF-X, So does Indonesia on replacement of F-5, F-16 A/B, and Hawk 100/200. The Mindef in here still look for possible stop gap for replacement of F-5 in which possible second hand F-16 MLU is strong possibility, while in same time Modified existing F-16 as stop gap for KF-X. This is the plan. In short as I have stated before, Korean not Aiming KF-X as their Highest End Fighter, but Both Korea and Indonesia aimed KF-X as their most numerous fighters at 'value for money'.

4. I Don't see in Korean sources differentiation on F-X and KF-X. KF-X is the next F-X. Whether KF-X turn out to be more advanced F/A-50, or something different, is still possible. KAI in 2002/03 put F/A-50 concept as replacement on postponenst of Stealth KF-X. The current ROK President revive KF-X, but what it will be turn out, still not have final decissions, thus both possibilities is till there. However if KF-X turn out to be something larger than F/A-50, than it's mean F/A-50 is not progressing on, and whatever final design of KF-X is.
Found an article in Korea Times (but forgot the link sllly me ), that stated ROKAF was not aim for KF-X as theit highest end asset, but as their most numerous ones. In my oppinion it's still probable that ROKAF also looking for F-35 as their main High end assets.

5. KF-X target market are countries that want something in the budgets but offer lattest 'value for money' capabilities. Turkey wants to have 100 F-35 (if I'm not mistaken), but they have to found something to replaced their large fleet of F-5 and early gen F-16, since doubtfull they can replaced all of them with F-35. This what KAI aimed for if they can bring Turkey to join.

I don't have sufficient info on life cycle costs of KO-1 and Super Tucano. KO-1 is still not operational fighters now. However if Min-Def in here choose KO-1, then surely the factor that it's a derivative of KT-1 in which Indonesia already using will be one of the main factor.
TNI-AU wants to build operational UAV (on MALE capabilities) squadron, and TNI-AD continue (even in small batch) getting new MI-35. With both account, personally I don't see the need for COIN, and for limited budget Air Force like TNI AU, like I said so many times, it's wasting their limited resources.

But hey...What Do I know

 

[Feanor]

I would imagine if another East Timor occurs, the Indonesians would want very much to have those Hinds.

 

[anan]

I seconded Feanor on this one. @anan, so far you can found several links on news or KAI official site, and I also found info in here that states:

1. KF-X was not aim for a Stealth on par with F-35, the ambitions (several article on Korea Times, I think I already provide link on this thread for one of them) stated this KF-X aimed for something that at par or slightly above latest generations of F-16 today. This's one ofthe link : S. Korea Reconsidering Stealth Fighter Plans

2. The Stealth F-X is long history now, the Korean already concluded that they don't have sufficient technology and fund to build one. The initial development costs budgeted at USD 6 bio, in which Korean Defense Ministry cover 60%, Indonesian Defense Ministry cover 20%, and the rest 20% KAI plan to found another Aero Industry to fund it, or they have to cover it from their own fund. With that kind of Money KF-X surely won't be a 5th Gen Stealth fighter.

3. Korea aim to replaced their F-5 fleet with KF-X, So does Indonesia on replacement of F-5, F-16 A/B, and Hawk 100/200. The Mindef in here still look for possible stop gap for replacement of F-5 in which possible second hand F-16 MLU is strong possibility, while in same time Modified existing F-16 as stop gap for KF-X. This is the plan. In short as I have stated before, Korean not Aiming KF-X as their Highest End Fighter, but Both Korea and Indonesia aimed KF-X as their most numerous fighters at 'value for money'.

4. I Don't see in Korean sources differentiation on F-X and KF-X. KF-X is the next F-X. Whether KF-X turn out to be more advanced F/A-50, or something different, is still possible. KAI in 2002/03 put F/A-50 concept as replacement on postponenst of Stealth KF-X. The current ROK President revive KF-X, but what it will be turn out, still not have final decissions, thus both possibilities is till there. However if KF-X turn out to be something larger than F/A-50, than it's mean F/A-50 is not progressing on, and whatever final design of KF-X is.
Found an article in Korea Times (but forgot the link sllly me ), that stated ROKAF was not aim for KF-X as theit highest end asset, but as their most numerous ones. In my oppinion it's still probable that ROKAF also looking for F-35 as their main High end assets.

5. KF-X target market are countries that want something in the budgets but offer lattest 'value for money' capabilities. Turkey wants to have 100 F-35 (if I'm not mistaken), but they have to found something to replaced their large fleet of F-5 and early gen F-16, since doubtfull they can replaced all of them with F-35. This what KAI aimed for if they can bring Turkey to join.

I don't have sufficient info on life cycle costs of KO-1 and Super Tucano. KO-1 is still not operational fighters now. However if Min-Def in here choose KO-1, then surely the factor that it's a derivative of KT-1 in which Indonesia already using will be one of the main factor.
TNI-AU wants to build operational UAV (on MALE capabilities) squadron, and TNI-AD continue (even in small batch) getting new MI-35. With both account, personally I don't see the need for COIN, and for limited budget Air Force like TNI AU, like I said so many times, it's wasting their limited resources.

But hey...What Do I know

Ananda, thanks for your thoughtful and informative response. Very interesting.

To clarify:
1) F-X phase 1 purchased 40 F-15K slam eagles; Contract awarded 2002, deliveries 2006-2008
2) F-X phase 2 purchased 21 upgraded KAI assembled F-15K slam eagles; Contract awarded 2008, deliveries 2009-2011
3) 50 T-50s all to be delivered by 2011
4) 10 T-50B [Black Eagles aerobatic team] all delivered 2010
5) 60 F/A 50s all to be delivered by 2014 [not 150 since the rest will be KF-X]
6) The $12 billion F-X phase 3 contract is likely to be reduced in size and consist of either F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters or KAI manufactured F-15SE Silent Eagles. The contract will likely be awarded around 2012, with deliveries perhaps starting in 2014 and completing before 2020.
7) KF-X [partly funded by reducing the procurement order of F/A 50s by 90 aircraft, and partly funded by reducing the size of the F-X phase 3 contract] Current planned development budget is $6 billion [60% South Korean Air Force, 20% Indonesia, 20% other {part of which will likely be Turkey}] In my view the actual development budget will likely be closer to $8 billion.

Some questions on the KF-X:
A) When will the contract for it be awarded? Will it be awarded after the F-X phase 3 contract is awarded in 2012?
B) How will the life cycle costs compare to an F-16 block 60 for example?
C) How will performance metrics compare with F-16IN {most advanced F-16 variant, more advanced than F-16 block 60}, F-15SE Silent Eagle, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Block III
D) When will KF-X start being mass produced and delivered?

If KF-X will only start being delivered in large quantities after 2020, then how can the F-X phase 3 be reduced in size from $12 billion? Can South Korea afford a fighter gap until the early 2020s? Presumably South Korea could survive with 60 F/A 50s versus 150 F/A 50s since ROKAF will have 60 F-15K Slam Eagles [1 having crashed] + F-X phase 3.

Am I wrong to think that increasing the KF-X development budget will likely lead to lower life cycle costs and greater functionality for the aircraft? If so, why not bring in additional investors to increase the R&D budget? Possible countries that would like a better quality version of the F-16IN with similar spare parts and maintenance training but at a lower price include Japan, Australia, India, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Brazil, Israel, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand.

To change the discussion to light attack COIN:
Are light attack fixed wing turboprop cheaper in life cycle costs relative to combat capacity compared to armed UAVs and Mi35s? Light attack fixed wing turboprop can also serve an Intelligence/Surveillance/Reconnaissance [ISR] role as needed. Even the US military is considering buying a large number of new light attack turboprop aircraft.

I would imagine that having so many moving parts increases the ware and tare on helicopters versus fixed wing turboprop. The vertical take-off and landing plus slower speeds of helicopters might result in lower fuel efficiency and smaller combat radius. Is this correct?

Another question relates to Indonesia possibly considering a multirole light attack fighter that is cheaper than SAAB JAS-39, F-16C/D Fighting Falcons, Su-30MK2, Su-27 SKM . What aircraft is Indonesia considering?
-F/A 50s? [presumably not unless the KF-X isn't mass produced until the 2020s]
-Chengdu J-10
-JF-17 Thunder
-BAE Hawk 132
-L159

When I look at fighter aircraft, I see a 5 categories:
1) Gen 5
2) Gen 4.5 highly capable multifunction
3) Gen 4 supersonic light attack fighter with moderate multifunction capability [F/A 50s, JF-17s, Chengdu J-10, weaponized Hongdu L-15, HAL Tejas]
4) subsonic light attack fighter with moderate multifunction capability [L159, BAE Hawk 132]
5) Light Attack Turboprop [A-29 Embraer EMB 314 Super Tucano, AT-6B Texan II, KAI KT-1C, TAI Hürkuş]

One question I have is why are so many countries interested in subsonic light attack fighters with moderate multifunction capability versus a Gen 4 supersonic light attack fighter with moderate multifunction capability? Is a JF-17 or weaponized Hongdu L-15 really that much more expensive in life cycle costs and cost per mile flown than an L159 or a weaponized BAE Hawk 132? What is the advantage of buying subsonic light attack fighters with moderate multifunction capabilities versus supersonic equivalent?

For example I am uncertain about the wisdom of NTM-A buying the AAF [Afghan Air Force] L159s versus Pakistani manufactured JF-17s. Discussed on page 5:
http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/556-caldwell.pdf