Indonesian Aero News

Ananda

The Bunker Group
But they will probably need to be replaced sometime this decade.
They're. The F-16 being refurbished to work 15 even 20 years more. There are ample F-16 support capacities from LM to continue refurbishing F-16. Same thing can't be said for Hawk 200.

Hawks considered as LIFT and LCA within TNI-AU. T-50 already replacing LIFT function, now only the decision to replace the LCA. It's highly expected FA-50 will do it, although some local online sites and media also speculating refurbished F-16 can also be choose.

My point in previous post mostly related toward indecisive action on current administration toward KFX/KF-21 involvement. They simply provide lips service, but so far hasn't committing any more fund in the program. The Investment needed not only to pay what dues, but also provide supporting manufacturing Investment in DI.

That's why I said, better make deals on T-50/FA-50. It's smaller Investment then KF-21, still provide learning curve needed by DI on Fighters development, and provide answer for LCA at same time.

Toward the early part of this thread, I'm supporting Indonesia involvement with KFX enthusiastically. However when this administration taking over, I just see their indecisiveness that getting longer and longer. Better they switched to T-50/FA-50, to close the chapter.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

This South Korean article put a claim from KAI that already sign contract for 6 T-50 with Indonesian MinDef. Now the talk for additional LIFT has been around for sometime. The contract also include additional support for T-50 fleet within TNI-AU.

For me, if this administration still has not able to make decision on KFX/KF-21 involvement. Then better talk with KAI to switch the co-op for T-50/FA-50. For one thing the usage for LIFT and LCA is there for TNI-AU.

They can workout FA-50 or T-50 co-op with less Investment (either for DI infrastructure or supporting program) then involvement with KF-21. This especially (considering the actual budget that can be allocated), provide enough fleet for TNI-AU on doing patrol. While still provide enough fund to procure the Rafale that seems MinDef adamant to get.

There're still USD 1.2 bio budget for Su-35 that has been set asside from last term, but not being use due changes on procurement objective. That amount if being used for FA-50 can provide up to 2 squadron (thus can replace Hawk 200). Use that for co-op with KAI on getting at least final assembly line for T-50/FA-50. It's going to provide better learning curve for DI in Fighters business, then jumping to KF-21 class right away.

One thing that I have wrote so many times, DI has 'zero' experience on Fighters business. Not even MRO let alone system integration for Fighters. Only working some off set Projects with LM in 90's doing some Airframe parts. That's not can be said suitable learning curve toward fighters business.

Getting into KFX can represent jumping the curve, if there're suitable follow on Investment being provided by this administration. However so far there're no sign on that. Get the T-50/FA-50 as learning curve instead KF-21, if this administration or even the next one's has no appetite for larger commitment with Fighters learning curve.

Habibie wants to begin IPTN learning curve in Fighters with Hawk 200 due to several factors, but amount of Investment also big factor on that. Now try it with FA-50. It's also can give way out with KAI/ROK on this KFX/KF-21 dilemma.
Thank you for sharing.
It is actually remarkable that this additional contract is nowhere to be found in Indonesian mass-media. Normally every defence equipment acquisition is proudly announced before even negotiations have begun.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
May I suggest that members in this thread answer 2 questions as the insights gained will serve to inform the debate for TNI AU’s future fighter types that includes a LCA. Currently, Qatar (i) ordered 36 Rafales (24 in 2015 and 12 as an option in 2017); and (ii) placed an initial order of 36 F-15QAs and is likely to have increased the number ordered to 48.

Q1: Why do you think Qatar decided to mix and match fighters from 3 international suppliers (when it was an existing user of the Mirage 2000-5)?

Q2: Why did Qatar place such a large follow-up order with Boeing, when it was logical for Dassault to win and get a signature in 2015 before anyone else?
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
@Sandhi Yudha If you can see, after the huha of that USD 122 bio defense foreign procurement line. The debate on media (at least official mass media), for any defense related items is much tone down. Even the talk of FREMM is not getting much exposure, compared to usual debate on defense procurement. FREMM contract is the biggest single Indonesian defense procurement to date.

The announcement of MinDef that number is only a draft, and should be still part of State Secret, also create reluctance on media to talk it more. Also the official statement from Bapenas Head that by the end of this term at most USD 20+ bio foreign procurement line will be allocated, in my opinion create 'doubt' on whether this talk of Rafale, F-15EX, or continuation with KF-21 can be afford (for all).

That's why I speculate with involvement on T-50/FA-50 Projects as more affordable choices, if MinDef still want to go ahead with huge procurement program of Rafale or even F-15EX.


Q1: Why do you think Qatar decided to mix and match fighters from 3 international suppliers (when it was an existing user of the Mirage 2000-5)?

Q2: Why did Qatar place such a large follow-up order with Boeing, when Dassault was the first to get a signature?
@OPSSG for me I already throw away logics with Rich Gulf Kingdoms defense procurement long time ago. The only logic that I can see is:
1. They can Afford it,
2. They want best toys money can buy,
3. They want to buy protection package with it.

So with Qatar procurement of Rafale, F-15QA, and Eurofighter in my opinion more to Qatar need to gain added good will from US and Euro partners. Why the add more F-15QA rather than more Rafale and Eurofighters, well it could be:
1. They find F-15QA in the end give more Economics value when operating in larger numbers,
2. F-15QA provide the all round protection they're looking for. They practically paid Boeing to build this version,
3. They need US protection and good will more.

As your implying question (that I presume), what Indonesia can learn from that ? For me, I'm already saying all along; ' logically stick with F-16V, add some refurbished F-16 (to get quantity), get rid the Flankers, then replace it with F-15E or EX if Boeing only manufacturing this version now'.

However considering Political logics in Indonesia Defense and Political circles for the need of diversification, then as I have mentioned several years ago, buy some Frenchie items but keep TNI-AU back bones with F-16 family. Get rid of Flankers.

If the reality foreign procurement line budget is what Bapenas Head said of USD 20+bio at most for this term, with TNI-AU only got USD 8+bio at most while Rafale seems got strong support from MinDef and Political circles. Then buy Rafale, keep the refurbished F-16 for at least a decade, get rid of Flankers, forget KF-21 and switch local licensing from KF-21 to FA-50.

It's not the best, but still workable with budget, and still relatively provide manageable logistical foot prints.

What if they used the money/budget for 12Su-35 for 8 F-15EX ? Well it's politics talk more then logics. Logic should be either Rafale or F-15EX, not both of them. If Politics that talk, then just Rich Gulf Kingdoms procurement practices, throw away all the defense operational logics.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Many in Indonesia forums, media enthusiasts still hoping for KF-21 involvement. This based on what Jokowi's and Prabowo's talk in media on Indonesian continue involvement with KFX/KF-21. I said talk is cheap. If there's really Political will to involve with this program, then they will not be talking on Rafale, F-15EX, Eurofighter or F-16V. They will go with more refurbished F-16 as stop gap, while poured money for Investment in DI capabilities and supporting infrastructure to prepare for that IFX manufacturing.

However there's no money going there. The dues hasn't been paid and there's no more Investment going to DI. I have talk to some colleagues from Ministry of SOE that say no more Investment for DI (asside money for N-219 and MALE UAV program). DI according to them should shown their capabilities for their existing projects executions, before expecting Government to inject any more money for them.

DI so far shown abysmal track record as commercial company. Habibie and follow up by Gus Dur in their administration era try to find Investors to inject money for DI. They can't get it, as no Investors want to enter money pit call IPTN/DI/IAe. Thus everything has to back to any Indonesian administration to fund it.

So when some in media or forums talk about DI or Indonesian Aerospace Industrial design, I always try to find out if the 'finance' people already prepared the money or not. If not, then all this talk from the so call Industry Expert is just that, cheap talk.

I'm no Defense Industry people, as I've mentioned many times. However I'm come from Finance Industry, and in the end like many Industries, the defense and strategic Industry plan will always depend on whether there're Financial resources that can back it up.

I have talk with people from many Industries that come from one financial institution to another, preparing proposals on what they're planning on their company. Defense Industry also will have to do that. They may be have the plan, the question is always can their proposals being bought by those who hold the money ?

So for those who still dream on KF-21 licensing/ Indonesian involvement, my suggestion is just check if there're money that come to:
1. Add Investment toward DI Fighter production facilities,
2. Paid the dues on Indonesian obligation in the KFX Projects.

If there's no movement in both area, then all this talk on DI engineer involvement in the project is just stay as cheap talk. Follow the money trail, if there's money trails that Indonesia will commit on this project, then you can dream on KFX production in Indonesia.

In real world, reality has to back up with money. That's why in real world money is the one that talk, not cheap talk.

Add:
In my recent posts I suggest to switch from KF-21 licensing toward FA-50 licensing. This based on smaller Investment needed, and giving closure to seems on going KFX Indonesian involvement dilemma. However that's also still a 'dream' since means additional Investment needed to DI, which as mentioned above got some reluctance from those who hold money.


Even putting TNI-AU chief in Board of PT. DI, I don't think will change much. As it's already been done from time to time.
 
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Q1: Why do you think Qatar decided to mix and match fighters from 3 international suppliers (when it was an existing user of the Mirage 2000-5)?
Q2: Why did Qatar place such a large follow-up order with Boeing, when it was logical for Dassault to win and get a signature in 2015 before anyone else?
In my opinion, because buying fighter planes can be seen as a unique combination of soft and hard power in international diplomacy. The purchase of both items can be interpreted as a long term commitment to the geopolitical defense partnership of the end user country and the country of manufacture. You can't simply just buy a fighter jet and then cut relations with the country of manufacture as doing so would mean your entire fleet gets grounded. In a region as volatile as the Middle East (where formerly lukewarm relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia was strained due to the Arab Spring and oil rivalries), this policy move is important to their political planners. They don't know which western power would side with them in the long run, hence why they diversify their defense suppliers. Is it logical when you're talking purely from a logistical and efficiency standpoint? Absolutely not. However, as a Gulf Arab country they can pretty much keep throwing money at the problem. As @Ananda put, they can afford to work harder not smarter.

They will go with more refurbished F-16 as stop gap, while poured money for Investment in DI capabilities and supporting infrastructure to prepare for that IFX manufacturing.
That reminds me, I am pretty curious to know what offset offer LM would offer to help their case. We've all heard what Dassault is willing to give, but so far I haven't heard much on what LM would offer. More spare part production? Investment of DI as a regional spare part manufacturer? Because if not I don't see how they can sway the MoD towards the Viper.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
am pretty curious to know what offset offer LM would offer to help their case. We've all heard what Dassault is willing to give, but so far I haven't heard much on what LM would offer.
That's good question. I saw FB page from Nusantara Turbine (DI Subsidiaries that handle Turbine MRO), on visit from Dasault and also visit from LM delegation. Bit odd in my opinion as the visits coming not from Safran/SNECMA or GE.

Anyway, I doubt the off set offer will be on licensing agreement for either Rafale or F-16V (or even F-15 in the case of Boeing) considering the amount being talk is 24-32 fighters. However I do sense they will offer off set on the area of:
1. Heavy scale MRO,
2. Fast moving part licensing,
3. Sensors, electronics and data connection.

If any advantage that LM can give over Dasault is in the area of upgrade/refurbishment of second hand F-16 for DI /TNI-AU. If LM can offer 32 F-16V + 32 refurbished block 30/40 ex USAF at the same costs of 32 Rafale, perhaps it's going to be interested for Indonesian side.

Off course it all depends on what Political drive for this Rafale or even F-15E. For me, I just put simple budget calculation base on what Bapenas head put in media. With that amount allocated to TNI-AU and with what India paid for 32 Rafale, I don't think MinDef can afford 32 Rafale plus MRTT plus C-130J plus GCI packages with 24-32 F-16V let alone F-15E. That's why in my previous posts I suggest if Rafale still need to be procured (politicaly), just make deals for FA-50 licensing. The US/LM alrready got C-130J deal anyway.

Unless they got more budget allocation or agree to used all procurement budget for this term only for Fighters. I don't think they can get more foreign budget procurement line for this term. They will be lucky if all USD 20+bio foreign procurement line in this term, still can be use. Not with this Covid that need the rest of Jokowi term to stabilise the economy.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
| "@Sandhi Yudha If you can see, after the huha of that USD 122 bio defense foreign procurement line. The debate on media (at least official mass media), for any defense related items is much tone down. Even the talk of FREMM is not getting much exposure, compared to usual debate on defense procurement. FREMM contract is the biggest single Indonesian defense procurement to date.

The announcement of MinDef that number is only a draft, and should be still part of State Secret, also create reluctance on media to talk it more. Also the official statement from Bapenas Head that by the end of this term at most USD 20+ bio foreign procurement line will be allocated, in my opinion create 'doubt' on whether this talk of Rafale, F-15EX, or continuation with KF-21 can be afford (for all) "|

Actually every defence equipment acquisition which becomes reality is a small miracle, so it will be nice if this 6 T-50i will not be canceled.

Many in Indonesia forums, media enthusiasts still hoping for KF-21 involvement. This based on what Jokowi's and Prabowo's talk in media on Indonesian continue involvement with KFX/KF-21. I said talk is cheap. If there's really Political will to involve with this program, then they will not be talking on Rafale, F-15EX, Eurofighter or F-16V. They will go with more refurbished F-16 as stop gap, while poured money for Investment in DI capabilities and supporting infrastructure to prepare for that IFX manufacturing.

However there's no money going there. The dues hasn't been paid and there's no more Investment going to DI. I have talk to some colleagues from Ministry of SOE that say no more Investment for DI (asside money for N-219 and MALE UAV program). DI according to them should shown their capabilities for their existing projects executions, before expecting Government to inject any more money for them.

DI so far shown abysmal track record as commercial company. Habibie and follow up by Gus Dur in their administration era try to find Investors to inject money for DI. They can't get it, as no Investors want to enter money pit call IPTN/DI/IAe. Thus everything has to back to any Indonesian administration to fund it.

So when some in media or forums talk about DI or Indonesian Aerospace Industrial design, I always try to find out if the 'finance' people already prepared the money or not. If not, then all this talk from the so call Industry Expert is just that, cheap talk.

I'm no Defense Industry people, as I've mentioned many times. However I'm come from Finance Industry, and in the end like many Industries, the defense and strategic Industry plan will always depend on whether there're Financial resources that can back it up.

I have talk with people from many Industries that come from one financial institution to another, preparing proposals on what they're planning on their company. Defense Industry also will have to do that. They may be have the plan, the question is always can their proposals being bought by those who hold the money ?

So for those who still dream on KF-21 licensing/ Indonesian involvement, my suggestion is just check if there're money that come to:
1. Add Investment toward DI Fighter production facilities,
2. Paid the dues on Indonesian obligation in the KFX Projects.

If there's no movement in both area, then all this talk on DI engineer involvement in the project is just stay as cheap talk. Follow the money trail, if there's money trails that Indonesia will commit on this project, then you can dream on KFX production in Indonesia.

In real world, reality has to back up with money. That's why in real world money is the one that talk, not cheap talk.

Add:
In my recent posts I suggest to switch from KF-21 licensing toward FA-50 licensing. This based on smaller Investment needed, and giving closure to seems on going KFX Indonesian involvement dilemma. However that's also still a 'dream' since means additional Investment needed to DI, which as mentioned above got some reluctance from those who hold money.


Even putting TNI-AU chief in Board of PT. DI, I don't think will change much. As it's already been done from time to time.
So looking to the lack of investments in IPTN's production facilities, what we can expect is
1. KFX : 100% cancelled
2. Not even T-50i licence production.
3. Hopefully continuation of the N219 and Elang Hitam UAV programs.
4. Looking to the small amount of jetfighters to be ordered, also no licence production of the Rafale or F-16V.
 
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I don't think MinDef can afford 32 Rafale plus MRTT plus C-130J plus GCI packages with 24-32 F-16V let alone F-15E.
I really don't think there would be any of the budget left for the other Air Force projects if the Rafale was chosen. Not including economy of scale. simply having to set up new infrastructure for the fighters is already going to eat away budget in the 2022/23 - 2034. Not to mention I don't know how Prabowo is going to be able to sell the idea that likely (seeing how the Indonesian government works) a quarter to half of the Air Force will not be able to fly as the operational budget is inevitably going to be used up just for the unforeseen costs of introducing a new platform.

I actually am curious on why Prabowo isn't interested in entertaining the idea of ordering the F/A-50 as a Hawk replacement and getting workshare agreements with KAI. He could easily spin the idea of "local manufacture" towards his political goals. Not to mention the actual bonus of DI having a learning curve towards independent manufacturing, similar to what TAI did in the 80's - 00's. It would be a win-win for him.

If he wants to have an easy political win for his next presidential run, he should either do what you suggested and open up talks on procuring (and potentially greater workshare) the F/A-50, or go with LM with more Vipers.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Looking to the small amount of jetfighters to be ordered, also no licence production of the Rafale or F-16V.
actually am curious on why Prabowo isn't interested in entertaining the idea of ordering the F/A-50 as a Hawk replacement and getting workshare agreements with KAI. He could easily spin the idea of "local manufacture" towards his political goals.
For me both of your questions is related. Licensing FA-50 or F-16V let alone Rafale will need substantial Investment with DI and related Industry. Are this administration willing to put more Investment ?

That's why I put the off set in the area of MRO, Fast moving part licensing and electronics/sensors and data connection. As I presume it will not need more Investment than building Fighters manufacturing/assembly facilities from ground up. Those area of off set can utilise existing capacity. Don't think more on Investment needed on licensing for turbofan tech.

Like I said, follow the money trail. They have put money for Submarine Yard in PAL. Thus they have to use that, or it will be big Political problem if they don't. However so far I don't see substantial Investment being poured on DI except for N219 and Male UAV.

If they poured the money to build Fighters manufacturing and assembly facilities in DI (not an empty building like now), then we can see real move for domestic licensing on fighters (whether FA-50, F-16V, Rafale or even KF-21). The more complex the fighters, the bigger Investment will be. Just simple economics. You need bigger Investment on manufacturing Lexus then Daihatsu, as Lexus is more capable and complex Auto then Daihatsu.

That's why I dream on licensing LCA like FA-50 then MRCA like F-16V, Rafale or KF-21. Because the dream on licensing LCA is still just a dream, let alone MRCA.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

This article first come with Reuters. Talking more on Thales financial performance. However in the article it specifically mentioned Indonesian satellite Project is one of big driver.

I don't know yet if this is related to MinDef Defense Communication satellite or Commercial Satellite. No confirmation yet from Indonesia side. Thales has been supply Indonesian commercial Telco companies with satellites before. However the debacle of previous term MinDef on settling defense comm satellite (with Airbus), risk Indonesia loosing the atmospheric slot that being book for that.

The budget already approved last term, it's just simply incompetence process in last term MinDef that create the problem. However if this is the continuation of that project, then it's interesting why the vendor switch from Airbus to Thales. That could shown Prabowo's increasing preference with Frenchie items.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
It has been reported that Indonesia has signed a contract with KAI for a future 6 T-50i trainers. The contract value is US$240 million and no dates have been cited.

Indonesia paid $400.000.000 for the first order in 2012 if im not wrong, for the 16 T-50is. These 16 T-50i trainers were originally delivered without radars or armament, but Indonesia signed a contract with KAI in 2018 to retrofit radars (AN/APG-67?) and 20mm cannons to the fleet. The new (second) contract is $240 million for just 6 jet trainers, this means Indonesia pays 1,6 × more for each aircraft. Besides this i expected a smaller part of the value is for ground support equipment, tools, spare parts and training.

I can not believe an increase of that scale is caused by inflation, so does this mean that the second order of six T-50i trainers/LIFTs will be completely equipped with radar and cannon?


This article first come with Reuters. Talking more on Thales financial performance. However in the article it specifically mentioned Indonesian satellite Project is one of big driver.

I don't know yet if this is related to MinDef Defense Communication satellite or Commercial Satellite. No confirmation yet from Indonesia side. Thales has been supply Indonesian commercial Telco companies with satellites before. However the debacle of previous term MinDef on settling defense comm satellite (with Airbus), risk Indonesia loosing the atmospheric slot that being book for that.

The budget already approved last term, it's just simply incompetence process in last term MinDef that create the problem. However if this is the continuation of that project, then it's interesting why the vendor switch from Airbus to Thales. That could shown Prabowo's increasing preference with Frenchie items.
I thought Satkomhan 1 was completely cancelled, because like the SIGMA 10514, KF-X and Type 209/1400 Nagapasa class programs, it was an "SBY-project". And we all know that PDI-P follows the "SBY-project = bad project => must be stopped!" policy.

Here an interesting link of an unofficial Satkomhan 1 overview.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Besides this i expected a smaller part of the value is for ground support equipment, tools, spare parts and training.
The original Korean media announcement talk on KAI sources that mentioned the contract consist of 6 new plane plus support packages. Basically existing TNI-AU T-50 already in TA-50 variance. This provide capabilities of more ground attack engagement, asside as LIFT.


This's bit old, however what I'm going to stress is KAI already prepared their T-50 with modular modules, that basically what changes basic T-50 toward the plan FA-50 blk 20 with BVR capabilities, is the sensors and electronics. There's no changes in Airframes and Engine (except some changes in internal fuel pallet to enlarge fuel capacity).

All those changes can be conducted with users facilities, with help from KAI. This off course if the users already invest on appropriate support infrastructure.

This's what I implied on my posts concerning T-50/FA-50 including one in PAF thread; if you don't have or can't afford initial large Investment, then take T-50/FA-50 as it can be build up the capacities later on.

As for that satellite program, well what the Thales Financial report already clearly stated in their book, that there's confirm contract for satellite from Indonesia. Whether this's for Defense Comm satellite program, that's not clear yet. However if it's, then it will be different then the previous "Satkomhan 1" from previous MinDef program. For one thing the vendors already different, and we don't know how far the specs changes.

The network centric that Scytalys prepared for TNI, clearly shown importance of Comm Satellite as one of network node. So, I do sense it's related to that Project too (if what Thales satellite project really related to Defense project).

Interoperability-Diagram-3-1024x574.jpg

I'm no IT or network expert. However when they give presentation to us in Banks on talking for National wide network payment grid, they always talk for us to find vendors that can provide Satellite accessible. That's why BRI buy their own Satellite, cause basically BRI is the only Bank in Indonesia that serve every corner of the Nation.
 
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I thought Satkomhan 1 was completely cancelled, because like the SIGMA 10514, KF-X and Type 209/1400 Nagapasa class programs, it was an "SBY-project". And we all know that PDI-P follows the "SBY-project = bad project => must be stopped!" policy.
Well if my political lingo is correct, whatever the previous administration did that you consider bad is then considered good when you are the one doing it.

Regardless what happens with Satkomhan, I just hope they will use a reputable launch company. The recent fiasco with the Chinese launch vehicle should be a lesson to them.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
whatever the previous administration did that you consider bad is then considered good when you are the one doing it.
Repackaging older administration policies to be honest has been done, not only by Jokowi's but also by SBY's ( I'm not going to talk what Gus Dur and Megawati's administration done. It has been good enough they both have not disintegrate the nation).

The wholle development blue prints by both administration can be trace back to old Soeharto blue prints. My colleugues in Bapenas basicaly says many of the programs (Trans Java Highway which begin in SBY era despite Jokowi's online buzzers claim otherwise, Trans Sumatra Highway, Air and Maritime connectivities, and Data-Satelite connectivities), are more or less recycles from what blue prints prepared under Soeharto. Just making touch up to make it more updated.

This as I have mentioned several times, due to Soeharto regime basically has better planning preparation cause by the regime long run live. Thus if the defense program is being recycles and touch up by each administrations (even between terms), well it is already a norm.

Makin planning is weakneses that the administrations after Soeharto have, since they are working on short term horizon. Just like in commercials sectors, present presidents basically only as CEO (unlike Soekarno and Soeharto). Just like most CEO's they are working on limited windows, and has to manage and compromise different factions.

So like many CEO's they are going to recycles many policies with different make up touch ups. Just to have something that faster to implement.
Problem on Jokowi's first term MinDef is not only bad planning, but also abysmal implementation. So Prabowo's bar is not that high actually. If he can done better implementations, then he already shown starling results. After all Indonesian public are known for their short term memories.

Add:
If you guys want, check Kris FB. They put record on what previous term MinDef has implemented. Basically from their own term planning, they only manage to procured some light weapons and some Marines equipment. The most big items that come on last term are from SBY's program. So if Prabowo's manage to bring big items contract to implementations stage. He already has starling performance (since public will only compared it from previous term).
 
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