Indo-Pakistani Tensions (2019 & Beyond)

Ananda said:


As Usual on any India vs Pakistan conflict, claim and counter claim already coming around. Both Pakistani and Indian online ppl are notorius louds and full of bravados. Fog of online OSINT from each sides already filling online sources and social media.

What's seems already confirm there're planes coming down after the Indian attack. Which plane and from which sides,is still disputed. Pakistan already claim to shoot down Indian Rafale, Su-30 and Mig-29. There're photos now circulating on online media on the wrekage of Mica Missile and it's pylon.

Pakistan OSINT claim it is shoot down by J-10C using Chinese build Missile. Indian OSINT off course counter claim that. If something down and hit by Chinese build Missile from Pakistan J-10C, it is perhaps the 'stamp' combat proven that China looking from their military asset.
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Indeed, claims and counterclaims. But on the Indian side their are footage of wreckage and Indian media (The Hindu) confirmed "crashing" of three aircraft. If true, very like PL-15 - to lesser extent SD-10 - kills. There are roumers of at least one kill by Chinese origin SAM, most likely HQ-9.
 
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We will see which statements/claims are correctly. Last time India claimed they took down an F-16 and Pakistan claimed to have taken down a Su-30MKI. In the end the only proven loss was an Indian MiG-21.
 
SABRE said:
It true, very like PL-15 - to lesser extent SD-10 - kills.
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Then it raise Chinese missiles and potentialy J-10C stamp of battle proven. Something that they long hoping for. Perhaps China 'friendly' price deal for J-10C do increase PAF option. If this is launch from JF-17, God Forbid the amount of insult and counter insult that perpetial continue on JF-17 vs Tejas subject.

Sandhi Yudha said:
In the end the only proven loss was an Indian MiG-21.
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This one raise F-16 and Amraam battle provem portfolio. There're rumours in Pakistani media and forum, the usage of Amraam on downing Indian Mig-21 are being used by Indian Lobby to talk on no further upgrade on Amraam and F-16 being available for Pakistan. Something that PAF use to get J-10C.
 
Sandhi Yudha said:
We will see which statements/claims are correctly. Last time India claimed they took down an F-16 and Pakistan claimed to have taken down a Su-30MKI. In the end the only proven loss was an Indian MiG-21.
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The F-16 kill claim was bogus. The aircraft were out of reach from India's MiG-21 and certainly could not be targeted by R-73. In any case, the downed aircraft and its payload in entirety were recovered and publicly put on display. On the other hand, there is no publicly available evidence of downing of Su-30. We can at best assume that PAF fired missiles at it. Whether it was destroyed, damaged, or it survived intact is perhaps something we will never come to know.
 
Ananda said:
Then it raise Chinese missiles and potentialy J-10C stamp of battle proven. Something that they long hoping for. Perhaps China 'friendly' price deal for J-10C do increase PAF option. If this is launch from JF-17, God Forbid the amount of insult and counter insult that perpetial continue on JF-17 vs Tejas subject.

This one raise F-16 and Amraam battle provem portfolio. There're rumours in Pakistani media and forum, the usage of Amraam on downing Indian Mig-21 are being used by Indian Lobby to talk on no further upgrade on Amraam and F-16 being available for Pakistan. Something that PAF use to get J-10C.
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JF-17 cannot be ruled out. Its pilots tend to be quite daring, willing to fly close to the borders, and the aircraft is able to carry PL-15.

India would of course use whatever leverage they have with the US to stop PAF's F-16 upgrades and AMRAAM. So far it seems things are slowed down but certainly not cancelled. Might have something to do with funds. I do not know if any major upgrades, beyond the usual stuff, has been requested by PAF.

J-10C is quite good - good enough to counterpoise Rafale or F-16 Block 70 - and it has no political constraints attached to it. PAF seems quite satisfied. For all practical purposes, it has superseded the F-16s as lead fighters.
 
Some images have been showcased by the Indian side of what could be PL-15E debris, just about confirming their use and perhaps kills
 
Said PL-15E section, and more parts.


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Reportedly K-36DM seat, which is used in both SU-30MKI and MiG-29 in Ramban


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Seems Indian source now admitted 3 crashes. However still not admitting it is cause by Pakistan missiles.

20250508_085340.jpg

Yes, this one is really getting hype now. Potential market that before put J-10C on back end of choices, begin to have second tought. At least in Indonesia, it is reported the sales representative from Chengdu getting new ammo lobby.


There's now speculations that the crash in Pakistan (thus outside those 3 crashes in India teritory), are coming from Pakistan own Mirage V. Seems the talk base on the ejection seat that shown similarities with Mirage V.
 
Ananda said:
View attachment 52836

Seems Indian source now admitted 3 crashes. However still not admitting it is cause by Pakistan missiles.

View attachment 52837

Yes, this one is really getting hype now. Potential market that before put J-10C on back end of choices, begin to have second tought. At least in Indonesia, it is reported the sales representative from Chengdu getting new ammo lobby.


There's now speculations that the crash in Pakistan (thus outside those 3 crashes in India teritory), are coming from Pakistan own Mirage V. Seems the talk base on the ejection seat that shown similarities with Mirage V.
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PAF mirages are mostly equipped for ground attacks. They have A2A capability but do not carry BVR missiles. It makes no sense for them to be there in an engagement that was A2A from PAF side. Instead, this picture appears to from the crash which took place not too long ago, before the conflict.
 
Here’s TWZ’s take on all this. The article includes an unconfirmed French remark that a Rafale was lost.

Regardless, this skirmish is a win for future Chinese aviation arms exports. Military observers will be watching this carefully to monitor any new Chinese capabilities that might appear.

www.twz.com

China’s PL-15 Air-To-Air Missile Appears To Have Been Used In Combat For The First Time

The apparent use of China's PL-15 by Pakistan in the recent eruption of hostilities with India comes as Rafale shoot-down claims swirl. A French intelligence official has reportedly confirmed the combat loss of an Indian Air Force Rafale taking part in recent strikes.
www.twz.com www.twz.com
 

Reuters claim US source already see at least two India AF fighters shoot down by Pakistan J-10C. The source also say the US F-16 not involve with the aero skirmish in the border. However the type of what went down is not disclose. India so far still denied any of their fighter shoot down by Pakistan.

Read in Pakistan online forums that PAF already change their F-16 with J-10 last week in the AB around Pakistan Khasmir border area. Perhaps Pakistan already see the potential air attack is coming, and they pull back F-16 from border area to reduce potential problem with US.

Or is it the sign that J-10 will replace F-16 as PAF main fighter. For one thing in Indonesia the Chengdu salesman also rumours lobby MinDef to postpone F-16 upgrade program and use the money as initial payment for J-10C. Basically they are lobbying to replace F-16 with J-10.

Perhaps that's also shown as the trend in future for Pakistan AF ? J-10C attractiveness in export market will be increase susbtantially as results.

John Fedup said:
Military observers will be watching this carefully to monitor any new Chinese capabilities that might appear.
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Some in Weibos, X and other online Chinese forums already talk providing J-10C and financing scheme to Pakistan is good investment. As usuall Chinese and Pakistani online ppl now fighthing together against Indian ppl in the virtual battle ground. While some Frenchie online ppl pounding Indian ones as incompetence on loosing Rafale to less quality "Chinese Fighter".

The talk (even within Indian forum) that IAF strike was poorly executed. IAF should better guiding their fighters with their own AEW&C assets, as PAF already shown their coordinate training on using their Erieye with J-10, JF-17 and F-16. Indication seems shown Pakistan do have better preparation and waiting to ambush some of Indian Fighters.
 
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The possible shooting down of the Rafale is causing some complications.
www.flightglobal.com

Awkward discrepancies in Indian Rafale shootdown image

The fog of war is alive as well in the aerial clash between India and Pakistan, with nebulous imagery swamping social media, exacerbated by limited comments from authorities.
www.flightglobal.com www.flightglobal.com

J10 shooting a Rafale with a PL15 would be and is big news. Pakistan able to coordinated via AWACs is also interesting, as many airforces have fairly weak AWACs capabilities embedded. But in a world on long range munitions Things may be shifting heavily.

There are reports of a Pakistan AWACs being shot down.
 
www.dw.com

India, Pakistan accuse each other of violating ceasefire

Hours after the announcement of a ceasefire agreement, explosions were heard in Indian-administered Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan have accused one another of violating the truce.
www.dw.com www.dw.com
www.indiatoday.in

Pre-dawn blasts at Rawalpindi, Chakwal airbases, claims Pakistan

In the early hours of May 10, explosions rocked three major Pakistani airbases—Nur Khan in Rawalpindi, Rafiqui, and Murid in Chakwal—following a barrage of drone attacks launched by Pakistan on nearly 26 Indian cities across Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. Sources suggest...
www.indiatoday.in www.indiatoday.in

Strikes appears to have taken place targeting Nur Khan AB (Rawalpindi), Murid AB (Chakwal), Rafiqui AB (Shorkot)
 
www.theguardian.com

India and Pakistan accuse each other of cross-border attacks on military bases

Claims of missile attacks on targets deep inside both countries marks the steepest escalation in confrontation yet
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Pakistan say the retaliation underway, and some Indian X accounts say Pakistan missile already landed in Indian Military instalation.

Honestly I don't want to put their online social media sources. India vs Pakistan online ppl behaviours are very similar. Full of bravados and putting unreliable claims against each other. If anyone have ever think Pakistani and Indian are different and unrelated, their ppl online behaviours are confirming otherwise.

For that so far seems the claim on aircraft down only reliable enough for 2 or perhaps 3 on Indian side. I do believe more IAF and PAF aircraft down, but so far still unreliable claim. Both reportedly bring up to 125 fighters plus AEW&C assets, thus more aircraft downs in my opinion very probable from both sides.
 
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