Indo-Pakistani Tensions (2019 & Beyond)

[ngatimozart]

Here’s TWZ’s take on all this. The article includes an unconfirmed French remark that a Rafale was lost.

Regardless, this skirmish is a win for future Chinese aviation arms exports. Military observers will be watching this carefully to monitor any new Chinese capabilities that might appear.

China’s PL-15 Air-To-Air Missile Appears To Have Been Used In Combat For The First Time

The apparent use of China's PL-15 by Pakistan in the recent eruption of hostilities with India comes as Rafale shoot-down claims swirl. A French intelligence official has reportedly confirmed the combat loss of an Indian Air Force Rafale taking part in recent strikes.

www.twz.com

If the Chinese, platforms, weapons, and other systems work well during this conflict, they have a good possibility of replacing Russia in the weapons market. The performance of Russian equipment in the Russo-Ukrainian War hasn't been helpful for their marketing, and the skills of their military leadership has left a lot to be desired. That to is unhelpful for marketing.

 

[SABRE]

There are reports of a Pakistan AWACs being shot down.

Clearly fake

Pakistan says retaliatory strikes under way after accusing India of targeting military bases

Pakistan officials confirm counterattack against India has begun under the name Operation Bunyan Ul Marsoos, meaning ‘wall of lead’ in Arabic

www.theguardian.com

For that so far seems the claim on aircraft down only reliable enough for 2 or perhaps 3 on Indian side. I do believe more IAF and PAF aircraft down, but so far still unreliable claim. Both reportedly bring up to 125 fighters plus AEW&C assets, thus more aircraft downs in my opinion very probable from both sides.

Asides for the 5 kills of 7th May, PAF has not yet laid a claims to more kills in the air. It has, however, claimed neutralizing an S-400 system via JF-17. I think whatever kills or claims there are by PAF in today's ops, DG ISPR will be giving electronic evidence of it during his briefing.

 

[Ananda]

Well India and Pakistan basically put opposite side on lies and missinfirmation. Also both official channel accuse each other as the one that continue to escalate.

Personally for me (correct me if I'm wrong on reading this), after IAF vs PAF skirmish two days ago, both now using mostly Drones and Missiles to increase the attacks toward each others AB. If the number of 125 aircraft involve is confirm, then it is the largest air skirmish on one occasion. Perhaps since perhaps Yom Kippur ? (Newsweek claim largest since WW2 if number involve confirm).

India-Pakistan jets clash in one of the largest dogfights in recent history

Fighting between the two nuclear rivals has intensified amid international concerns and calls for cooling off

www.newsweek.com

 

[Ananda]

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-operation-sindoor-05-10-25

Trump claims India, Pak agree on ceasefire; both countries confirm

US President Donald Trump on Saturday claimed that India and Pakistan have agreed to a "full and immediate" ceasefire after talks mediated by the US

telanganatoday.com

Technical Difficulties

Pakistan and India agree ‘immediate ceasefire’ – Kashmir crisis live

Both Pakistan and India have confirmed the news after it was announced on social media by Donald Trump

www.theguardian.com

Seems there will be ceasefire soon. Both India and Pakistan foreign ministry sources indicate that. However Trump also say that to the media. Seems this is something that Trump going to say; 'I bring this ceasefire to both of them' or 'if Biden still President, there will be war in subcontinent'.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

By now, if the war was heading to escalation, we'd see that. It started low, peaked for a few hours, and died down again. So let's talk results:

Pakistan:
Got a few operational successes, but needs to mostly worry about over-confidence and possibly learning the wrong lessons.
They should study why they succeeded, the press harder in that direction.
Being tied to China for a qualitative advantage which China achieved only recently, Pakistan should decide whether to double down on its relationship with China and strive for access to better platforms and weapons, and in turn provide new contributions.


India:
Really needs to do its homework now. Its decision to only strike terrorist sites in the beginning at the (materialized) risk of quality and non-attritable platforms, and allow Pakistan to prepare its forces, has been a serious miscalculation.
It lost a lot, for little to no gain.


And the biggest loser of all this..... is Taiwan.
China had just validated its systems in real combat against western equivalents.
Taiwan may thus end up in a state of not only quantitative inferiority, but a qualitative one as well.

 

[John Fedup]

By now, if the war was heading to escalation, we'd see that. It started low, peaked for a few hours, and died down again. So let's talk results:

Pakistan:
Got a few operational successes, but needs to mostly worry about over-confidence and possibly learning the wrong lessons.
They should study why they succeeded, the press harder in that direction.
Being tied to China for a qualitative advantage which China achieved only recently, Pakistan should decide whether to double down on its relationship with China and strive for access to better platforms and weapons, and in turn provide new contributions.


India:
Really needs to do its homework now. Its decision to only strike terrorist sites in the beginning at the (materialized) risk of quality and non-attritable platforms, and allow Pakistan to prepare its forces, has been a serious miscalculation.
It lost a lot, for little to no gain.


And the biggest loser of all this..... is Taiwan.
China had just validated its systems in real combat against western equivalents.
Taiwan may thus end up in a state of not only quantitative inferiority, but a qualitative one as well.

I think more analysts on the weapons performance is required to confirm Chinese equivalence. Better tactics and training by Pakistan (with Chinese input) could be a factor. WRT Taiwan, agree, and there is the proximity factor, perhaps the biggest problem for Taiwan.

 

[PachkaSigaret]

Sporadic fighting is still very much ongoing.

Pakistan:
Got a few operational successes, but needs to mostly worry about over-confidence and possibly learning the wrong lessons.
They should study why they succeeded, the press harder in that direction.
Being tied to China for a qualitative advantage which China achieved only recently, Pakistan should decide whether to double down on its relationship with China and strive for access to better platforms and weapons, and in turn provide new contributions.


India:
Really needs to do its homework now. Its decision to only strike terrorist sites in the beginning at the (materialized) risk of quality and non-attritable platforms, and allow Pakistan to prepare its forces, has been a serious miscalculation.
It lost a lot, for little to no gain.

China and Pakistan have had very close ties for a while now. They've made it a point to source a variety of equipment from China like the VT-4, A-100, ect. in conjunction with a variety of aircraft.

To be fair to India, I think there target selection bore in mind preventing further serious escalation. They expected Pakistan to respond. It seems to me they were very selective with targeting, both sides have show restraint all things considering. They quickly targeted airfields, cross border drone raids and varied up targets. So they didn't merely just strike terrorist compounds. We're not going to get a decent BDA anytime soon and probably not a very clear one at all in the foreseeable future.

 

[Ananda]

Uneasy calm after India and Pakistan ceasefire gets off to shaky start

Ceasefire between India and Pakistan appears to be holding, hours after both sides accused each other of violations.

www.aljazeera.com

Despite accusations of violations from India and Pakistan against each other, so far seems the truce hold the uneasy calm. Seems Trump got diplomatic boost, as both Modi and Syarif thank and appreciate Trump on his effort to broker the truce.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Uneasy calm after India and Pakistan ceasefire gets off to shaky start

Ceasefire between India and Pakistan appears to be holding, hours after both sides accused each other of violations.

www.aljazeera.com

Despite accusations of violations from India and Pakistan against each other, so far seems the truce hold the uneasy calm. Seems Trump got diplomatic boost, as both Modi and Syarif thank and appreciate Trump on his effort to broker the truce.

The US is still ultra important in international relations. There are some problems that are best facilitated and negotiated through them. Pakistan and India is an example of that. Particularly as India and China are still cooling offer after their latest border skirmish, and Russia is fighting a war in Ukraine.

I'm curious to see how this plays out.

 

[Ananda]

The US is still ultra important in international relations.

No doubt about that, yesterday I saw images of Zelensky and British, German, French and Polish leaders hovering speaker phone, listening to Trump. No matter how he antics behavior and policy, he still US President, and that's what matters.

The graphic in that Al Jazeera article also interest me. China is Pakistan biggest defense suppliers, while Russia in opposite situation for India. US not on any possition as big supplier for any of them in recent time. Perhaps that's also put them as in more neutral possition for New Delhi and Islamabad. India used to see US in different way especially when US still Pakistan main weapon supplier. For Pakistan despite US getting closer to India, they still need US good side to balance growing influence of Indian Lobby in US.

India getting closer to Israel seems also helping their lobby influence. The Pakistan and India also seems become part of Israel vs Turkey diplomatic rivalry. Turkiye increasingly become Pakistan important defense supplier, while Israel already for some time in India side.

So yes, I believe what happen between India and Pakistan always play increasingly important to many Global Players. However as long as problem of Khasmir and for that matter Industri river main tributaries water supply not resolve, the tension will always be there.

 

[T.C.P]

Taiwan may thus end up in a state of not only quantitative inferiority, but a qualitative one as well.

They have been in this state already for a decade at least. Taiwan has nothing that China does not have a better version of, and in greater numbers.

 

[StingrayOZ]

The graphic in that Al Jazeera article also interest me. China is Pakistan biggest defense suppliers, while Russia in opposite situation for India. US not on any possition as big supplier for any of them in recent time.

But thats the point. The US is the balance in this equation. Unlike China or Russia who has pretty massively supported one side, knowing that the other is also back by the other. The US would literally be the deciding vote.

No one wants this conflict to continue or escalate, not India, not Pakistan, not Russia, not China. No one wants this to be the moment.
India and Pakistan are locked to each other. They both have significant impact on the countries around them. India has also played a significant role in continuing to deal with Russia while the Ukraine conflict is on, so American interest and actions are interesting. American views may change, if views on Russia change.

And the biggest loser of all this..... is Taiwan.
China had just validated its systems in real combat against western equivalents.
Taiwan may thus end up in a state of not only quantitative inferiority, but a qualitative one as well.

It certainly looks like the markets believe the win is with China. However, superiority has been with China over taiwan for quite a while. I don't expect it to play a massive part. But may lift Chinese exports.

I expect AWACs to be a hot buy over the next few years, and proliferation of longer range air to air munitions.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

They have been in this state already for a decade at least. Taiwan has nothing that China does not have a better version of, and in greater numbers.

I was referring to Taiwan the theater, not Taiwan the country. Meaning Taiwan the country + anything the US could deploy vs China if and when.

 

[SABRE]

Better tactics and training by Pakistan (with Chinese input) could be a factor.

Its the other way around. The Chinese have good in tech innovation but they have lacked quality training and planning and have minimal combat experience. For this reason they have been conducting annual air force exercises with Pakistan. They'll be getting a good amount of data for training and planning purposes from this war shortly. If the rumors are correct, which they appear to, they also roped in few British and other European (and perhaps American as well) retired pilots for training, especially against Western assets. Would be interesting to see them in action someday and see how much have they learned.

 

[T.C.P]

Its the other way around. The Chinese have good in tech innovation but they have lacked quality training and planning and have minimal combat experience. For this reason they have been conducting annual air force exercises with Pakistan. They'll be getting a good amount of data for training and planning purposes from this war shortly. If the rumors are correct, which they appear to, they also roped in few British and other European (and perhaps American as well) retired pilots for training, especially against Western assets. Would be interesting to see them in action someday and see how much have they learned.

In Chinese forums, they mentioned how Pakistan learned new BVR tactics after training with the Chinese. The Shaheen exercises exposed Paksitan to true BVR environments and Pakistan rapidly started implementing reforms after them.

These are all anecdotal of course, but on the Chinese forums, they mentioned a particular incident, where Chinese J-8s were able to get long range kills against superior Pakistani birds, which made Pakistan pay much closer attention to the relationship between ISR assets, AWACS assets, and BVR combat.

These are all unverified of course, but I would love to know more about these from the perspective of Pakistani pilots.

 

[T.C.P]

It certainly looks like the markets believe the win is with China. However, superiority has been with China over taiwan for quite a while. I don't expect it to play a massive part. But may lift Chinese exports.

I expect AWACs to be a hot buy over the next few years, and proliferation of longer range air to air munitions.

Military purchases are still very political. From my layman's perspective, China's problem is that they don't import much. While buying Chinese is better for Bangladesh, for example, we are more wary of the way the West will react to this, as the West is 90% of our export market. As long as the third world relies more on the West to make money, Western concerns > Chinese concerns.

With third world countries fighting each other for exports in similar industries, something as small as a 5% tariff on goods for a country that buys Chinese gear can break entire economies.