Indo-Pakistani Conflict 2019

Feanor

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Yesterday, as a response to a terrorist bombing, the Indian Air Force carried out a large strike against alleged training camps in Pakistan. The strike was carried out by 12 Mirage fighters, with either 4 or 8 Su-30MKIs providing a fighter escort, and two AEW aircraft providing improved situational awareness (an A-50I and an Embraer 145).

EDIT: Sorry, this was written poorly. The strike was against targets in Pakistani Cashmir.

Индийский авиационный удар по территории Пакистана

After this strike combat has broken out in the Cashmir. In retaliation for an alleged strike against an Indian Army division, the IAF has bombed 5 Pakistani border posts. Unspecified numbers of Indian positions were hit by Pakistani airstrikes. There was also an air battle between the PAF and IAF. Two Indian jets were allegedly shot down (some sources indicate just the MiG-21 lost), with a Jaguar aircraft falling in India, both pilots KIA, and a MiG-21 falling in Pakistan with the pilot captured (allegedly shot down by a JF-17). India in turn claims one F-16 downed, but evidence is lacking. Also an Indian Mi-17 either fell on it's own or was shot down, and ultimately fell about ~100 kms from the border. Both sides are moving additional units towards the conflict zone. Bottom link in the last video has some footage of combat. Warning, the first link below contains graphic images.

ПВО Пакистана сбила 2 индийских самолета
Неспокойно на индийско-пакистанской границе
Необычно упал
Танки стягиваются к границе
Отмечают

Footage of the captured Indian pilot.

Пленный пилот ВВС Индии

Personal comment: this is a very serious and very dangerous situation. Both sides are nuclear powers, and this conflict is off to a fairly large scale start. Neither side has a massive technological edge, though India is considerably larger and has invested in some high-end weapons lately. I don't see Russia or China refusing to supply their partners (for money in Russia's case, but India has both money and credit) which leaves them supporting opposite sides. On the flip side both are SOC members, so maybe that organization can be used as a de-escalation format.

EDIT: Both sides are moving tank units towards the border.

Пакистанские Т-84 стягиваются к границе Индии в Кашмир
Индия усиливает танковую группировку в Кашмире
«Al-Khalid», Т-80УД и «Тип 85-IIAP» едут на войну

And here's a video of the Indian MiG-21 going down.

Видео сбития пакистанцами истребителя МиГ-21 ВВС Индии

Meanwhile local civilian air traffic is shutting down, and hospitals are busy painting giant red crosses on their roofs.

Коротко по Кашмиру. 27.02.2019
 
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hauritz

Well-Known Member
Hopefully this won't escalate but it is just a reminder of how unstable this region is. While everybody looks towards China and wonder about their intentions we seem to overlook that these two nuclear-armed nations regularly fire real bullets at each other.
 

King Wally

Member
Thank you Feanor I heard about this on the radio and was hoping an experienced member here could pull apart the facts from the fiction for me.

Hopefully this won't escalate but it is just a reminder of how unstable this region is. While everybody looks towards China and wonder about their intentions we seem to overlook that these two nuclear-armed nations regularly fire real bullets at each other.
I agree, if Japan and China were shooting at each other like this the world would be at panic stations. Just because it's "old India and Pakistan at it again" everyone gets a little complacent I fear. The threat is real.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Thank you for sharing Feanor!
Starting from the airstrike with the 12 Mirage 2000s, it became a war of desinformation and wild claims from both sides.....and in the beginning both countries didnt supply photos or video footages to proof those claims. On internet there were even photos used from a crashed Indian Hawk Mk100 from long ago which has nothing to do with the recent conflict....

So thank you for the updates and the links!
But i still dont understand that the Indian Airforce uses the MiG-21 as a frontline fighter in the Kashmir area.
 
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Ananda

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Despite the coming of Rafale,more Su-30 MKI, the talk on F-21 (F-16V for Indian market), the back bone of IAF still Mig 21.
This should be replaced by Tejas as originally planned in 90's. However the protracted introduction of Tejas, delayed this further.

PAF is in paper outmatched in quality and quantity. With PAF can only relied to JF-17, F-16, and Mirage 3/5 they will be severely in problem if they has to do deep strike to Indian territory. However they are seems doing defender role now..and it will be sufficient on that role.
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member
I agree, if Japan and China were shooting at each other like this the world would be at panic stations. Just because it's "old India and Pakistan at it again" everyone gets a little complacent I fear. The threat is real.
I think is more than complacent issue. Despite the rise of Indian economy, it's still far bellow on importance scale to global economy relatively compared to China and Japan.
The size of South Asia economy with India in it, is only slightly bigger than overall economy of South East Asia (in USD nominal).

Thus conflict of China and Japan has much repurcasion effect toward Global economy due to importance of East Asia economically. While despite their nuclear weapons, both Pakistan and Indian war still economically affected more regionally on South Asia rather than Globally.
 

Feanor

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Based on a closer look at the remains it looks like the alleged F-16 shootdown did take place, and the crashsite is intermingled with the MiG-21 crashsite, suggesting that a MiG-21 was responsible for the F-16 shootdown. Some of the parts are even traceable back to Jordan's F-16 fleet, from whom Pakistan has been sourcing spare parts. This also matches the Indian statement, claiming that a MiG-21 shot down the F-16.

Миг-21 сбил Ф-16
 

King Wally

Member
Based on a closer look at the remains it looks like the alleged F-16 shootdown did take place, and the crashsite is intermingled with the MiG-21 crashsite, suggesting that a MiG-21 was responsible for the F-16 shootdown. Some of the parts are even traceable back to Jordan's F-16 fleet, from whom Pakistan has been sourcing spare parts. This also matches the Indian statement, claiming that a MiG-21 shot down the F-16.

Миг-21 сбил Ф-16
A nice find there Feanor.

What intrigues me is why an airforce with over 240 Flankers would still send MiG-21's into critical conflict points. Does anyone know why this may be? Is there a struggle with Flanker availability or pilot training or ordinance perhaps?
 

Feanor

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A nice find there Feanor.

What intrigues me is why an airforce with over 240 Flankers would still send MiG-21's into critical conflict points. Does anyone know why this may be? Is there a struggle with Flanker availability or pilot training or ordinance perhaps?
It might be that whatever was available was scrambled to intercept. And it might be that the group intercepted by MKIs chose to leave and the ones intercepted by the MiG-21s chose to fight because they thought they'd have an easier time.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
So at the moment, Pakistan has lost one F-16C, shot down by an Indian MiG-21, and India has lost one Mig-21, one Jaguar and one Mi-17, in total 3 aircrafts shot down....am i right?
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member
Well, if you follow the news or internet chatter on this topic, seems that 1 Mig 21 down with its IAF pilot being capture is the only one that being confirmed.

The Indian claim on F-16 wreckage being contested by Pakistan..and I even see one source from India that even doubt that claim.

So let's see how this one developed

Add: Seems with Indian election looming, the opposition see this latest conflict as Modi's attemp to regain some popularity he and his BJP loosing. The Congress seems begin to put picture on Pakistan retaliation in the air as failure of Modi's government effort. So if no Pakistan F-16 actually loss, the Opposition will have more political ammo to attack Modi's and BJP during campaign.
 
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Feanor

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Well, if you follow the news or internet chatter on this topic, seems that 1 Mig 21 down with its IAF pilot being capture is the only one that being confirmed.

The Indian claim on F-16 wreckage being contested by Pakistan..and I even see one source from India that even doubt that claim.

So let's see how this one developed
Well the Mi-17 loss is confirmed, the cause remains unclear.

Meanwhile Pakistan has returned the downed pilot to India as a goodwill gesture. There have also not been any further clashes in the sky, and only minor clashes on the ground. It looks like this conflict is thankfully winding down.

Пакистан вернул Индии сбитого летчика истребителя МиГ-21
Пакистан вернул Индии пилота сбитого МиГ-21
 

OPSSG

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Well the Mi-17 loss is confirmed, the cause remains unclear.

Meanwhile Pakistan has returned the downed pilot to India as a goodwill gesture. There have also not been any further clashes in the sky, and only minor clashes on the ground. It looks like this conflict is thankfully winding down.
Other reports seem to indicate that the shoot downs from an Indian intercept (defensive counter air) of a small Pakistani strike package of 12.

Refusing to posts links to these sensationalised news reports. As is usual of India news organisations - thick on sensationalisation, thin on facts and logic. It also remains to be seen just what impact the Indian insistence that F-16s were involved in the 27 Feb 2019 aerial skirmish and that the Pakistanis lost one of these aircraft might have on efforts to de-escalate the present situation. Pakistan admitting it lost a combat jet publicly could prompt demands for renewed forceful action against India. Of course, it's hardly the first time the two countries have disputed significant and central details regarding major cross-border military skirmishes.

“IW” or short for Information Warfare is now a hot topic because of what has already happened in many countries through the internet. But really, IW is as old as mankind itself. In its simplest form, IW is telling a lie or a half-truth to harm someone else or to gain an advantage. And both Pakistan and India are conducting IW through local media.
 
If they did fail to shoot down any Pakistani jets then this would actually be a win for the Indian airforce. Now they can force across the point that they need to modernise as the old migs cannot provide them with a adequate response to other air arms in the area.
 

Feanor

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If they did fail to shoot down any Pakistani jets then this would actually be a win for the Indian airforce. Now they can force across the point that they need to modernise as the old migs cannot provide them with a adequate response to other air arms in the area.
They also have a general quantity problem. For example they're currently ordering additional MiG-29s, and Su-30MKIs (one squadron each) to try to fill the gap.
 

Feanor

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Would this answer some of India's problems
Boeing: Boeing India - F/A-18 Super Hornet
certainly this would end the confusion over identifying wreckage
Lockheed Martin reportedly set to build all F-16 wings in India lol
I'm not sure another type of combat jet from another country is the right answer here. As is India will be flying MiG-29UPGs, Su-30MKIs, and Rafales on top of their aging Mirages, Jaguars and MiG-21s. On top of that there will be another type (either the Su-57 or, less likely, the F-35). India's best bet would be to either commit to the Rafales, and buy more (many many more) or go full hog on the MiG-35, and upgrade their existing Fulcrum fleet to match, and skip the MMRCA tender entirely.

EDIT: And I think it mainly comes down to money and ToT. If the Indians can live with the price tag of the Rafales, and the level of ToT offered, they're the better choice. If not, they have to roll the dice with the MiG-35.

EDIT2: Ok, my bad, I'm turning this into an Indian Air Force 2 thread. Back on topic.
 
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