Indian Defence News

STURM

Well-Known Member
It will be self defeating for the U.S. if it imposes sanctions on India, after all the progress made in recent years towards taking the bilateral realationship to a new level. India shares a lot in common with the U.S, it's an important player and has a key role to plays with regards to China.

If India decides it needs the S400 for its security and if it doesn't negatively impact U.S. interests, why should India be sanctioned?

If anything CAATSA is a sign of weakness, it solves nothing and complicates things. How will the U.S. react if Vietnam [which occupies a major place in U.S. strategic calcilations in the region] signs a major deal for Russian gear? From a Russian perspective not being able to sell gear to various countries which are worried about being sanctioned by the U.S. can be viewed as a hostile act.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Talk that to Turkey, why US kick them out from F-35 program, because S400 deal. Basically CAATSA is creating diplomatic problem for US due to US now has to decide whether they are going to universally impose CAATSA to all (including their NATO allies) or they're going to be selective.

If the last one they're going to choose, then they have to explain on one NATO member that they already put the sanction with. Either that, or they have to take Turkey in back to F-35 program (if they decide to not sanction India after this).

In Indonesia there're already increasing voice from the Political factions that support Flankers deals in continuation of the contract, after they see how India done. This's not because the need of Flankers, but simply some so call 'nationalist' faction try to call US bluff (and off course protecting their business interest with Russia).

All this will create headache to US diplomacy. Trump CAATSA at least in paper will be enforce to anybody. That's why when they push out Turkey from F-35 under CAATSA violation, it make everyone taking CAATSA seriously. After all if they're doing it on one strategic long time NATO allies, they (US) will do it to everyone else.

If they don't do CAATSA to India after this, then the credibility of CAATSA will be severely jeopardize Internationally and domestically.

India need US to face China. They should now they can't rely on Russia to face China. Actually US can replace India on their containment of China. India is the one that's being sandwich between two nuclear power that both of them already publicly put their position as allies.

I believe Modi over estimate his hand too much. If Biden fall out and take back CAATSA to India, then it will jeopardize US own credibility.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Talk that to Turkey, why US kick them out from F-35 program, because S400 deal.
I was not referring to Turkey but instances where other countries acquired Russian gear and sanctioning them was contrary to U.S. interests ....

CAATSA was/is a highly flawed short sighted exercise which if anything displays U.S. weakness. It is also something which can be seen by the Russians as hostile as it deprives Russian companies the chance to gain revenue. Countries also have the legitimate right to obtain what they require for their national security without being penalised for it by an outside power [I'm not referring to Turkey per see here] ; as part of the geo political strategic rivalry between 2 powers. If Indonesia wants to buy BMPs or anything else from Russia why on earth should it even have to worry about CAATSA which has nothing to do with it?

That's why when they push out Turkey from F-35 under CAATSA violation, it make everyone taking CAATSA seriously. After all if they're doing it on one strategic long time NATO allies, they (US) will do it to everyone else.
Like many things the U.S. does it will be selective - depends on who is doing the buying and how it impacts U.S, interests. It also might depend on internal U.S. politics.

I mentioned Vietnam; it occupies a very importance place in the U.S. scheme of things. There are certain things which Vietnam might buy Western but for obvious reasons for a lot of what it needs it makes sense to buy Russia. Will Vietnam be sanctioned in the future? If so; the Chinse will be laughing off their chairs at what the Americans have done.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
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This's going to be interesting by some countries to watch how US going to react with India S400 and other defense items procurement with Russia. I know at least Turkey and Indonesia watch it intensely on US CAATSA reaction to India after this.

Base on looking to Turkish defense forums and on-line media, there're significant public support that very adamant to cut defense co-op with US, if US did not out CAATSA with India. After all they fell CAATSA is the reason why US kick Turkey from F-35 program after S400 deals.

They're also interest in Indonesia on at least continuation on Marines amphibious armoured vehicles (more BMP-3F), and they'll see how this going to effect on US defense co-op. Thus how US will react with India, also make interest from Indonesian side.
Both India and Indonesia don't have an imperial attitude and try to blackmail the US like the self styled Ottoman Sultan, or is it Caliph, Erdoğan tries to. Yes Modi can be touchy but he does have some sensibilities.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
India and Indonesia don't have an imperial attitude and try to blackmail the US like the self styled Ottoman Sultan, or is it Caliph, Erdoğan tries to.
referring to Turkey but instances where other countries acquired Russian gear and sanctioning them was contrary to U.S. interests .
Well that's the point that I try to make. Whose CAATSA going to be aim for? When CAATSA come out there's some confusion which condition can be exclude from CAATSA. I remember some bipartisan Senators told, Nation that already used or in process of procuring Russian defense assets can be exclude. I remember they mentioned nation like India, Vietnam and Indonesia. Reason is for those nations armed forces need Russian support on operating their defense assets.

Then Trump administration come out and say, CAATSA will going to be implemented to all regardless their situation. Simply put, you bought Russian, I'll sanction yours.

I put Turkey as example, eventough Sultan Erdo behaving himself as like Otoman Sultan (just like Tsar Putin and Emperor Xi behaving as Tsar and Emperor of ancient Russian and Chinese empires), but like it or not Turkey is NATO allies. Thus by sanctioning Turkey, Trump basically say, I already sanction a NATO allies with it, thus everyone will be sanction by CAATSA.

I'm not going to argue whether CAATSA going to damage US position on the long term or not. However if US cherry picking on whose going to be sanction under CAATSA, best they just drop CAATSA altogether. They already decided which level of defense co-op their going to implement anyway for each Nation in this world, with or without CAATSA.

However US already waive CAATSA to global community. It will jeopardize their image as 'strong' and determine super power if they don't implement them in consistent way. Foreign politics is much depends on flexibility but also on how consistently you are going to implement your own policy (thus your own word).

Will Vietnam be sanctioned in the future? If so; the Chinse will be laughing off their chairs at what the Americans have done.
At this moment I just see, either they drop CAATSA on this present form, or stick on implementing CAATSA consistently on the present form to the letter. So if they still want to stick with CAATSA in this present form, then yes they should sanction any country who bought Russian. That's their (US) consequences by introducing CAATSA in first place.

Prabowo's and Luhut (Indonesian Minister of everything), basically goes to Washington to lobby on exception on CAATSA for some assets that already under contract with Russian. However they seems don't get it from Washington, thus why Prabowo's assign lobby firm to help Indonesia on getting substitute offer from Washington.

You ask that if Indonesia want to buy Russian asset like BMP, why should Indonesia worry with CAATSA ? Well CAATSA got everything related with (if Indonesia still want to care relationship with US). So off course CAATSA got everything to do with.


There's a lot off analysts/journalists (many of them seems Indian looking at the names), that still think India will be given waiver of some sort by US on implementing CAATSA. However there're also those in Washington (especially in the Hill) that saying CAATSA has to be implemented consistently.

In the end what I'm saying is, If US give waivers on CAATSA thus cheery picking on the implementation. Then how CAATSA it self will be regarded by other Nations. They will see it just another paper tiger act from US, and everything can be bargain with. Better just US drop CAATSA.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
You ask that if Indonesia want to buy Russian asset like BMP, why should Indonesia worry with CAATSA ? Well CAATSA got everything related with (if Indonesia still want to care relationship with US). So off course CAATSA got everything to do with.
It was a theoretical remark.

The fact that by right, neither the U.S. nor anyone for that matter should dictate what Indonesia buys for its legitimate defence needs. It's not as if Indonesia is acquring IRBMs with a7/800km range. I'm aware that Indonesia has it concerns and has to try to avoid a row or any other disagreements with the U.S.

The Americans for their own self interests will be extremely selective when enforcing CAATSA. Ultimately it's a sign of American weakness IMO.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
was a theoretical remark.
I disagree. Again it's not theoritical condition, unless US don't want to implement CAATSA consistently. Which is back to present topic with India (and basically with everyone else).

CAATSA is powerful not just to sanction on defense assets procurement, more over sanction on using US banking system including USD. That one is the one that make everyone else thinking, cause it can create problem on foreign trade. I have put several post before saying how important US banking and financial market system for International trade. We in financial market often jokes saying actually USD and USD based financing market is much more powerful than all US Nuclear weapons and Armed Forces combined.

The Americans for their own self interests will be extremely selective when enforcing CAATSA. Ultimately it's a sign of American weakness IMO.
That's the question, will they implement consistently or not. After all it's their own congressional act, thus it's their own law. They actually can do cherry picking easier if they don't implement CAATSA. Now they're already implement that, then will any US administration want to break their own law ?

That's why I said any cherry picking on CAATSA implementation, can potentially create ripples in US domestic and International field. Unless they drop CAATSA.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I disagree. Again it's not theoretical condition,
Diasagree all you want. My statement with regards to Indonesia was theoretical. I was not suggesting that CAATSA was theoretical or that the consequences of being sanctioned isn't severe.

Will CAATSA be dropped? Lots of domestic U.S. issues at play. Dropping it would be a tacit acknowledgement that it was flawed and contrary to U.S. interests.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Diasagree all you want. My statement with regards to Indonesia was theoretical.
That's your opinion, everybody entitled to their own opinion. However as Indonesian I can say Indonesian administration take this CAATSA very seriously. That's why they send two powerful ministers to lobby Washington on CAATSA issue. So Indonesia definitely not treating CAATSA as theoritical issue.

Looking at Indian Media, I also see India actually taking this CAATSA seriously. Eventough they're seems quite sure US will give them waiver/exception under CAATSA.

That's what back to topic, if US give waivers to India on CAATSA, will CAATSA still can be treated seriously by other nations ? If that happens then your argument of CAATSA only as theoritical consequences have some validity.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
That's your opinion, everybody entitled to their own opinion.
Ananda, my statement was theoretical... I did not suggest that Indonesia [and others] were taking it lightly or that being sanctioned under CAATSA was not a serious matter.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
If that happens then your argument of CAATSA only as theoritical consequences have some validity.
That is what I have been trying to explain to you. I didt not imply that CAATSA was "theoretical".... Far from it. What was "theoretical" was the statement I made regarding how wrong it is for a country sanctioning a another country for acquring sonething for its legitimate needs from another country. From a Russian perspective this is inference in an internal Russian - preventing a Russian company from generating revenue - matter and is a hostile act.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
What was "theoretical" was the statement I made regarding how wrong it is for a country sanctioning a another country for acquring sonething for its legitimate needs from another country.
All right then, I presume before when you're talking theoritical is the theoritical consequences of CAATSA. Seems you're talking more on validity of US on sanctioning one country to make procurement they needed.

However CAATSA from beginning is being prepared as US answer to Russian move (especially in Crimea). So it's an upping game by US as part of Economics sanction.


This's what example that I say why people in Financial Market (well CNBC basically on Financial Market people perspective) say that actually US the only Country that have two kind of nuclear weapons. One the actual kind, the second is financial nuclear weapons. US basically can destroy your financial system, by closing the access toward US and USD dominated market.

This what basically Biden threatening Putin with. Despite all the talk on sanctioning Russia from access on financial market, at this moment only Russian defense contractor that facing that. The main export of Russia which's oil and gas is not. Iran already face that, that's why they can only sell to selected market.

Nearly every one need trade credit on doing global trade. That's where US other nuclear weapons actually is, abilities to closing access on US/USD dominated financial market. Even China with talk on yuanise International trade, most of their trade still depends on US/USD financial market system.

Aligning CAATSA with USD market system that actually make people take it seriously.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
However CAATSA from beginning is being prepared as US answer to Russian move (especially in Crimea). So it's an upping game by US as part of Economics sanction.
Yes and a cynic can say that CAATSA might also benefit U.S, companies in that certain countries; after being deterred from buying Russian; might look at U.S. alternatives.

at this moment only Russian defense contractor that facing that.
Defence exports make up a big part of the revenue Russia needs. Some countries couldn't give a damn about CAATSA but some countries do. That re has consequences for Russia.

Aligning CAATSA with USD market system that actually make people take it seriously.
From what I've been told; CAATSA only applies to new purchases. A country sourcing spares or ordnance reloads from Russia would not be effected.
Nothing is written in stone; the Americans - notwithstanding U.S. law and rhetoric - would be daft to impose sanctions without weighting in oen which country it is and how it effects U.S, interests.

As they say : some are more equal than others. If any of the Gulf Arab states [billion dollar customers for U.S. gear, have a strong lobby in the U.S and are now chums with Israel] made a Russian purchase; would they be sanctioned under CAATSA? Highly doubt it. If Vietnam [a country the U.S. has steadily been courting and improving ties with] decided to acquire Russian missile armed corvettes which would improve it's chances of defending its claims in the Spratlys and make life a bit more complicated for China in the event of a conflict [fully in line with U.S. interests]; would it be sanctioned under CAATSA? Doubt it. There might be some fuss but things would probably quieten down eventually.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
cynic can say that CAATSA might also benefit U.S, companies in that certain countries; after being deterred from buying Russian; might look at U.S. alternatives.
That re has consequences for Russia.
Well that's the aim on CAATSA to begin with. Hitting Russia defense Industry, while at same time potentialy can take away some business from their long term customers. Afterall it create two aim, reducing Russian influences and their business. That's part of sanctions aim.

However US has still opening their financial system door to main Russia export. That's seem the card that Biden still hold against Putin.

CAATSA only applies to new purchases. A country sourcing spares or ordnance reloads from Russia would not be effected.
Yes it is, that's basicaly the bargain US open to nations that still operating Russia defense assets. You can still maintain them, but don't buy new ones.

There might be some fuss but things would probably quieten down eventually.
That's why this topic on CAATSA begin with. Will US blink to India on CAATSA ? If that happen then CAATSA implementation can be bargain with. Instead on no bargain on CAATSA act that US try to potrait. Russian can talk to their other customers, get tough with US, it works with India.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

India already begin to deploy S-400. As predicted it's going to deploy near Pakistan border, and seems next batch will be near Chinese border.

Indian defense forums, online blogs and media seems more on support of this systems procurement, while the way I see it those who're negative on the system procurement more in minority opinions.

Indian analysts in media seems very sure US will not put CAATSA to India. The nationalistic argument claim based on their perseption that US need India more, and those whose from technicality of India already committed to S400 deals before CAATSA. Also argument that US alternative will cost India more on procurement and system Integration.

Personally I do believe Biden administration will try to find some diplomatic middle ground on this. However the question will be, will US going to provide more advance defense assets like F-15EX or even F-35 toward India after this.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Sadly i couldn't find back the official later on Twitter which was posted a couple of hours ago.



But such accidents are indeed "deeply regrettable", because what if it hit dense populated area, a strategic military target, airport, or something else with lot of casualties and material damage. Specially if the warhead contains a WMD-load.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Many Indians think that their 2016 & 2019 air strikes will deter Pakistan actions at its LoC side of the border, when it does not — things will get worse as weapons left by US military in Afghanistan are beginning to be found with terrorists killed in Kashmir.

Both Indian and Pakistani forces had recently exchanged Sweets on international border on the occasion of Eid but this peace gesture failed to stop the frequent cross border intrusions.

As evidence of this failure of Indian deterrence, during 8, 12 & 13 July 2022, there were infiltration attempts along the line of control (LoC) & the latest of these occurred in the Poonch sector of the Northern Command. These attempts were foiled by Indian troops. Noticing a suspicious movement along the LoC on 8 July 2022, Indian Army troops challenged them. The militants opened fire — an Indian Army soldier and a terrorist were killed in the gunfight along the LoC.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
This article discusses India’s defence relationship with Russia. Basically the suggestion is India can no longer afford to invest in obsolete Russian military kit no matter how inexpensive it is. Recent reforms are an attempt to improve procurement but are they working? As the article also points out, foreign suppliers have been screwed around for years. These same suppliers are now busy replacing kit for their own countries and allies due to increased defence awareness and replacement of donated kit to the Ukraine.

 

STURM

Well-Known Member
This article discusses India’s defence relationship with Russia. Basically the suggestion is India can no longer afford to invest in obsolete Russian military kit no matter how inexpensive it is.
The problem is India will not place all its eggs in one basket so to speak by buying mainly American arms for fear of sanctions or embargos. Another issue is gaining export approval for various things American or the fact that certain things might be downgraded. Strategic relations with Russia go back decades and for a lot of what India needs - complete systems or technology - there is no current alternative to Russia. Also, a lot of what the India buys from Russia isn't obsolete.

 
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