General Aviation Thread

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Even then, LM, Boeing, and Airbus would want their respective governments to subsidize any investment.
Yes, without that none of those three will want to venture on building something with Antonov. Destruction of Antonov facilities in Hostomel, Svyatoshn and Kharkiv practically destroy Antonov manufacturing capabilities within Ukraine. Only two others aircraft manufacturing that experience building Antonov aircraft, and both in Uzbekistan (Tashkent) and Russia (Voronezh). Something I don't think will be workable for Antonov even before the war.

So either Antonov become just a design bureau (which is basically how it is started) and working with Partner that have manufacturing facilities, or find some partner that want to finance rebuilding the facilities. Potentially the former one that can be realistically happen.

This off course has to be Government back, cause commercially not enough incentive to revive Antonov design by pure commercial foreign investors. Their design under current market conditions just not competitive enough commercially.
 

Terran

Well-Known Member
Watching the war unfold, I think Russia’s game plan included destroying what MIC Ukraine had built pre and post Soviet. Antonov and The Kharkov tractor factory were clearly targeted for demolition.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Watching the war unfold, I think Russia’s game plan included destroying what MIC Ukraine had built pre and post Soviet.
I do believe it is one of Russian prime aim. When Putin talk of Demilitarisation of Ukraine, I do believe destruction of Ukraine Military Industrial Complex is part of that. You can't have demilitarisation goal if MIC still exists.


Even Ukraine acknowledged their MIC practically already destroy. Most of Ukraine MIC is in the East and South as so does their heavy industry. East and South is practically Russian main aim from begining.

So unless Ukraine can get large investors for their MIC, I do have big doubt they can rebuild it again as before. That's already understatement because even before the war, their MIC performance continue declining especially Antonov.

Also have to consider how far brain drain that Ukraine MIC face already even before War. It is reality when a country can not maintain good health for their MIC, then considerable brain drain will follow. Look at South Africa, where now many of their engineers already in Dubai helping UAE building their own MIC.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
JHChrist! Can’t imagine how tough it must be working as Boeing’s PR manager. Tools and debris on aircraft, bad enough, but liquor bottles on the future Airforce One, Boeing is really sucking these days. Hardly noticed the cost overruns and using a worker without the proper certification.

 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Boeing 757 HP-2010DAE, yesterday, San Jose.

Initially it looks like a proper emergency landing, but suddenly in the end the aircraft decided to park itself on the grass. I expect this is beyond economical repair.

From other camera views.


More information..
 
Last edited:

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This could be the breakthrough that Russian Aviation Engine industry looking for. Turbofan blades is the main cornerstone on gas turbine development. Ironically Russian done this at beginning not to be independent from Western suppliers, but from Ukraine ones.
 

OldTex

Active Member
SpaceNews published an article on the effects the loss of the AN-124s will have on the satellite industry, especially the geosynchronous satellite segment. Options for the transport of large satellites to there launch sites were considered, including road transport (particularly for the US) and sea transport (possible for ESA). The use of other aircraft including Airbus Beluga, Boeing Dreamlifter/747F, Airbus A380 and even Aero Spacelines Super Guppy were broached in the article and the comments. But it was the certification aspects which might preclude other aircraft filling this niche as GEO communications satellites require additional safety approvals because they contain pressurized heat pipes and other hazards. The distinction was also made between outsize and heavy lift.
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Boeing 757 HP-2010DAE, yesterday, San Jose.

Initially it looks like a proper emergency landing, but suddenly in the end the aircraft decided to park itself on the grass. I expect this is beyond economical repair.

From other camera views.


More information..
What was a a Qantas airliner doing in Costa Rica?
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Always thought the AN-70 showed real promise but unfortunately it come along just as the USSR broke up and no-one had the resources to develop it.
Given the troubles wrt the A400M development, Western partners for the An-70 back in the early 1990s might have been worthwhile. Not sure if the engine technology was from Ukraine or Russia but if it was the former, that would have been particularly useful given the difficulties with the A400M engines.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This article from Oryx is quite extensive on talking about Antonov plan with Turkey on developing several types of Antonov design. However even looking on Turkish own defense forum, some of the more level headed Turks aknowledged that Turkish defense plan some of them are even bit to strectch with Turkey own priority and resources.

The most being talk around and seems got approval from Sultan Erdo inner circles (this I take from Turkish forums so put it a grain of salt on that), is AN-188 project. This basically AN-70 with Turbofan engine.

It will only (in paper) profide slightly marginal performance advantage over A400M. With Turkey already have enough A400M, then there's question whether this AN-188 will be attractive on the market (considering Turkey need to be the main base customer).


However after this war, when even Ukrainian them selves aknowledge most of their Military Industrial Complex (MIC) already destroy, pairing up with Ukranian mostly can be done by buying their design. Means if Turkey wants to continue this AN-188, they have to build it on their own facilities in TAI.

Not sure if the engine technology was from Ukraine or Russia but if it was the former, that
The Propfan is Ukraine design. However not sure how far the Motor Sich facilities still exist now. Ukraine actualy can revive Motor Sich with Chinese money, but US stop that.


So, unless US provide capital on that (with condition the facilities still in Ukraine hand considering nearly all their MIC in East and South), then Turkey is the only viable option so far. Still both options now have to much 'if' scenarios.

Even before the war, some potential JV on defense project with Ukraine has been balking down. So in commercial term, Ukraine not have stellar reputation to begin with, as good potential JV partner by foreign investors.
 
Last edited:

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
Given the troubles wrt the A400M development, Western partners for the An-70 back in the early 1990s might have been worthwhile. Not sure if the engine technology was from Ukraine or Russia but if it was the former, that would have been particularly useful given the difficulties with the A400M engines.
Ukranian, made by Ivchenko-Progress who were also involved in the Engines for the AN-225 and MI-26 Helicopter.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...
However after this war, when even Ukrainian them selves aknowledge most of their Military Industrial Complex (MIC) already destroy, pairing up with Ukranian mostly can be done by buying their design. Means if Turkey wants to continue this AN-188, they have to build it on their own facilities in TAI.

The Propfan is Ukraine design. However not sure how far the Motor Sich facilities still exist now. Ukraine actualy can revive Motor Sich with Chinese money, but US stop that.
...
Motor Sich is in Zaporizhzhia, which is still under Ukrainian control. The Russians are very close, though.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I have been watching Capt Dymtro Antonov, Chief Pilot of Antonov Airlines, YouTube Channel and in the video below there are only two AN-124 accounted for. One was burned and the other UR-82009 is in the hangar undergoing deep maintenance so was left alone ASN Aircraft accident Antonov An-124-100 UR-82009 Kyiv-Gostomel Airport (GML) (aviation-safety.net) UR-82073 was at Gostomel during the invasion and I suspect that may be the burnt one.


Antonov Airlines fleet
Aircraft​
In
fleet
Orders​
Registration​
Notes​
1
—​
UR-09307​
In Kyiv during attacks, damaged according to video​
1
—​
UR-NTE​
Sustained minor damage inside hangar​
2–3*
—​
UR-82029​
UR-82072​
UR-82073​
UR-82073 in Kyiv during attacks, condition unknown​
4
—​
UR-82007​
UR-82008​
UR-82009​
UR-82027​
UR-82009 in Kyiv during attacks, damaged inside hangar during refit.​
?
—​
UR-EXP​
Condition unknown​
The airline's fleet previously included the following aircraft (as of 2009)​
Antonov Airlines also operated the following aircraft for the Antonov Design Bureau:​

The following aircraft are recorded as being at Gostomel.

Airworthy aircraft:
RF-91882 - Mil Mi-8AMTSh Russian Air Force: fuselage burnt out; likely occurred as Russian troops left the airport​
UR-09307 - Antonov An-22A of Antonov Airlines: left-hand fuselage and top fuselage penetrated by projectiles (was stored engineless at the time)​
UR-13395 - Antonov An-26: burnt out, likely on Feb. 24​
UR-74010 - Antonov An-74T of Antonov Airlines: destroyed on Feb. 24​
UR-82009 - Antonov An-124 of Antonov Airlines: in hangar; shrapnel damage and fuselage penetrated (was undergoing maintenance)​
UR-82060 - Antonov An-225 of Antonov Airlines: in hangar; forward fuselage destroyed​
UR-LKS - Cessna 172RG Cutlass RG; possibly damaged inside hangar​
UR-NTE - Antonov An-28: in hangar with An-225; no observable damage​
?? - Cessna (172?): in hangar with An-225; crushed under An-225 wing tip​
?? - Antonov An-28 or similar (three bladed prop, An-28 type nose landing gear): burnt out on apron​
Unairworthy aircraft:
?? - Antonov An-2 derelict, no engine and unmarked: right hand wings destroyed​
UR-21510 - Antonov An-12 of Antonov Airlines: possible damage to left wing root area (was stored engineless at the time; unairworthy since 2008)​
UR-EXK - Antonov An-132D: damage to left-hand wing tip and shrapnel puncture damage to engine and fuselage (was WFU & unairworthy at the time) Incident multiple aircraft , 24 Feb 2022 (aviation-safety.net)
So that leaves some AN-124 unaccounted for. Antonov Airlines have their freight hub at Leipzig in Germany and I wonder if one or more of the AN-124 are there. The other point is Capt Antonov was quite scathing of the previous management of the company in one of his videos stating that they neglected to move Mrya and the other aircraft out of Ukraine to safety in Poland or elsewhere. I think it's this video where he rips into them. He doesn't mince his words.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Yes, but we don't know the condition of their facilities. Kharkiv still under Ukranian hand, but Russian practically bombard Kharkiv heavy industries including Kharkiv tractor plant that make their MBT and Antonov facilities there.

Practically the most I can get is Ukraine own aknowledge on condition most of their MIC as I have posted in post #883. Zaporizhye fate I highly suspect depends on the war in Donbas.

AN-70 actually was moving along as joint production ventures with Russia. However Russia left the program actually in 2013 (when Ukraine still under Yanukovich). So they left the program before Maidan.


Seems the Russian did not satisfied with Antonov management even before the breakdown of their relationship. There's rumours that Yanukovich still bargaining with Putin for RuAF AN-12 replacement project still goes to Antonov, before the Maidan Brooke out.

Even Turkey still take Antonov program after the war (whatever the result), most Ukranian Military Industrial can do I suspect act as design bureau.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

So Russia will focus on building Tu-214 as supplement for MC-21 plus SSJ. Thus they want to focus with Narrow Body Airliners. The Production for IL-96 will not be mass. I suspect this means for Wide Bodies they will focus on the project with China CR-929.

It is in my opinion make sense considering hundreds of Airbus and Boeing Narrow Bodies that need to be replaced within this decade. This sanctions should give Russia for not ever looking back to West as potential suppliers for the Airliners. They should focus their own Industry revival and JV with China.

Because that's how the multipolar market will be.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

To add from above post, the sanctions has put MC-21 schedulle for another two years. This's as part of complete Russification of MC-21. However seems Rostec still confidence by 2025 combination of Tu-214, MC-21 and Sukhoi SuperJet will able to begin as Import substitution for all Airbus and Boeing.

Perhaps this sanction can revive Russian Commercial Aerospace Industry, just like in Sovyet times.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

To add from above post, the sanctions has put MC-21 schedulle for another two years. This's as part of complete Russification of MC-21. However seems Rostec still confidence by 2025 combination of Tu-214, MC-21 and Sukhoi SuperJet will able to begin as Import substitution for all Airbus and Boeing.

Perhaps this sanction can revive Russian Commercial Aerospace Industry, just like in Sovyet times.
I still have my doubts that Russia can continue with the production of the SSJ-100, because of the large amount of foreign components.

Development of the Il-112 and Il-276 also go very slowly, and i think it will not improve after the war in Ukraine ends, looking to Russia's financial situation.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
It depends on how far they manage for 'Russification'. If this means total non western involvement, perhaps they still can do it.


Both SSJ and MC-21 Russian version are not the same as the SSJ that already in the market amd MC-21 prototype. Put this video as shown short version of Rostec plan. The TU-214 and IL-96-400M has abysmal production rate before, because it is only build for Government purpose. While their Airlines take on Airbus and Boeing. Thus they have to fight on their own market with Boeing and Airbus.

However things change, and no matter the outcome of the war, there're will be no more Airbus and Boeing in Russian market. Russia is just few country in this world that have tech to go alone for their own airliners. I'm not going to say it will be better then Boeing and Airbus, however I'm not going to discount them yet on come out with their own Airliners line for their and perhaps some 'close' clients (that have problem with West).
 
Top