Future Energy Pathways

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Battery life isn't the same as service life, though.

My experience of hybrid batteries (obviously, not the same, but a useful reference) is that they can last a very long time & for a lot of miles, in a duty cycle which is quite hard on ICEs - taxis. Taxi drivers here in the UK were slow to adopt hybrids, despite the claimed fuel economy advantages for stop-start urban cycles, because they were concerned about the lifetime of batteries & the cost of battery replacement. In recent years that's changed, because they now know that the average battery life is much higher than they expected. Manufacturers such as Toyota now give a much greater warrantied battery life than they used to.

A few years ago a taxi drive my stepfather knew had a hybrid which had done 300,000 miles & the battery was still good. When the car finally wore out he intended to buy the same again. He reckoned that it had saved him a lot of money in both fuel & maintenance over a conventional petrol or diesel fuelled equivalent. Not a statistically significant sample, of course, but the very high number of new hybrid (including plug-in hybrid) taxis suggests that it's not atypical. There are also all-electric taxis appearing on the streets.

My stepfather got a very good trade-in price for his 13 year old hybrid. My wife was offered far more than she expected for her first hybrid when she traded it in for a new car. They'd both done over 100K miles. The cost of battery replacement is factored into what dealers offer, of course, but trade-in prices seem to be higher for both hybrids & all-electric cars than conventional ICEs.

Of course, the type of driving you do affects it. Lots of long-distance motorway driving isn't the ideal regime for electric vehicles to demonstrate advantages over ICEs.
Currently it is possible to make gasoline powered cars last much longer then their battery-powered equivalents. My grandfather's Zhiguli kopeyka (VAZ-2101) was purchased in iirc 1973. He drove it until 2006 at which point he sold it. I wouldn't be surprised if it's on the road today. From a standpoint of reducing carbon footprint manufacturing and disposal has to be taken into account. Producing fewer cars but having them last drastically longer can offer major gains in reducing that impact. Again I'm not saying EVs are definitely worse. But I'm not sold that, when analyzed holistically as a transportation system, they will come out ahead with current technology, and there are improvements to be had not only with EV tech but also with gasoline-powered vehicles.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member

Guess you now going to claim Toyota is lying?
I am not claiming Toyota is lying. However, I notice they do not say anything about range, or about how much luggage space this prototype got. Perhaps they have some secret, clever new H2 storage technology that addresses my concerns. If this is the case then perhaps H2 ICE has a future. But I am not betting on it quite yet.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Whereas there is a lot of focus on very high energy density batteries like solid state batteries, there is also some very interesting development on the much cheaper LFP batteries, making them extremely suitable for smaller cars with acceptable range. LFP batteries are much cheaper than current state-of-the-art Li-Ni batteries but have lower energy density and are therefore mainly used in low-end cars like the Tesla M3 Standard Range.

CALB is now manufacturing second generation LFP with energy density of 153 Wh/kg. CALB Starts Mass Production of New Generation of LFP Batteries with Energy Density Reaching 153Wh/kg- EnergyTrend

CATL has developed M3P, also an Mn-LPF type of battery with higher energy density. China's CATL to start mass output of M3P batteries this year | Reuters

LFP batteries have several advantages over the Li-Mn type of batteries: they are much cheaper, they don't contain Cobalt and Nickel (but Iron which is cheap and readily available), they last longer, they handle high charging levels better. The disadvantage has been the low energy density. However with these new improved types of LFP batteries it means that entry level BEV will get a longer range -- alternatively, they can be made even cheaper and maintain the current entry-level range. Unless you need a long-range SUV I would say a car with one of these new LFP batteries is a no-brainer.

Some pros and cons of LPF:
4 Benefits of LFP Batteries for EVs (visualcapitalist.com)
LFP Batteries: Pros and Cons as Elon Shifts Some Teslas to LFP | Torque News
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Whereas there is a lot of focus on very high energy density batteries like solid state batteries, there is also some very interesting development on the much cheaper LFP batteries, making them extremely suitable for smaller cars with acceptable range. LFP batteries are much cheaper than current state-of-the-art Li-Ni batteries but have lower energy density and are therefore mainly used in low-end cars like the Tesla M3 Standard Range.

CALB is now manufacturing second generation LFP with energy density of 153 Wh/kg. CALB Starts Mass Production of New Generation of LFP Batteries with Energy Density Reaching 153Wh/kg- EnergyTrend

CATL has developed M3P, also an Mn-LPF type of battery with higher energy density. China's CATL to start mass output of M3P batteries this year | Reuters

LFP batteries have several advantages over the Li-Mn type of batteries: they are much cheaper, they don't contain Cobalt and Nickel (but Iron which is cheap and readily available), they last longer, they handle high charging levels better. The disadvantage has been the low energy density. However with these new improved types of LFP batteries it means that entry level BEV will get a longer range -- alternatively, they can be made even cheaper and maintain the current entry-level range. Unless you need a long-range SUV I would say a car with one of these new LFP batteries is a no-brainer.

Some pros and cons of LPF:
4 Benefits of LFP Batteries for EVs (visualcapitalist.com)
LFP Batteries: Pros and Cons as Elon Shifts Some Teslas to LFP | Torque News
Cheap batteries with somewhat less range are ideal for urban applications, especially for commercial delivery and taxis. The same applies to FCEV as well. Solutions will be a mix of technologies until a dominant one appears, somewhat Darwinian perhaps.:)
 

swerve

Super Moderator
No they well informed much more then you and me, and your talk above shown you are the one that clearly don't understand the difference between Hydrogen Fuel Cells and Hydrogen ICE. Again, read all the article and what market analyst talk about, it is the Hydrogen ICE that big auto company now working as they also understand the problem with hydrogen fuel cell.

What support system, you ask? Do you understand what is ICE support systems means? It means they will use capabilities of existing ICE garage, existing vendors, existing spare parts manufacturing. Hydrogen ICE whether for Auto, Ships or Plane will use existing fossil fuel engine tech and only major different instead using gasoline, diesels, avgas/avtur, they are using Hydrogen.

Put it this way so you are not confusing again between Hydrogen Fuel Cell and Hydrogen ICE. Both Batteries and Hydrogen Fuel Cells are both electric vehicles. Hydrogen ICE is not. It is ICE vehicle. You say people understand the difference between Hydrogen and Batteries car, but at least yourself don't understand different between Hydrogen ICE and Hydrogen Fuel Cell. Cause you still lumping Hydrogen Fuel Cells with Hydrogen ICE as one, despite all the articles above and all before that's being put. Again even tough both fuel by Hydrogen, it is very different tech altogether.

The difference is the need of huge batteries cells. Hydrogen Fuel Cells still need huge batteries, even tough not as big as pure EV batteries car. Hydrogen ICE just like current fossil fuel ICE don't. That's the problem, batteries is expensive and despite all the drives for better batteries tech, it is for most people in the world, still more expensive then the alternative






I can assure you most people in the world still not want EV. Looking at the telegraph article above clearly not even all European like to think about EV as most Scandinavian do. The World will not become Greta's La La Land thinking. That's the fact, as most people in this world even in Europe can not afford North European standard.

I come from country that sit on most World Nickel reserve. Having the ambition became World leading batteries producers, and work on that. Even then, behind the fan fare also working on increasing hydrogen production potential especially the Blue Hydrogen (as we are also sitting on big natural gas reserve), even tough they call it Green Hydrogen. Is it because due to Hydrogen Fuel Cells? No, they are waiting and betting as most in automotive and propulsion industries, on the development on Hydrogen ICE for all type of transportation.

Do you think Ships or Plane will move to Batteries? No they won't, as it is too heavy. Even with the so call potential solid batteries tech wonder. Personally I can see some in urban transportation using more batteries, but long range inter cities and heavy transportation still using ICE, whether hydrogen ones, alternative synthetic or hybrid fossil fuels. Europe will want to stop fossil fuels cars? Well that's EU goal, and not most others goals.

Btw where those electricity coming from? Wind, solar? EU better think back to accept Nuclear ones, or that electricity still come from Fossil Fuels as presently where those EV being charge using electricity from fossil fuels.



Well not what most of oil companies think, as they see their 'Blue' hydrogen can use on modified their current existing distribution network. That's why billions being build on hydrogen capacities production.




People will move on energy that can be afforded by them not some Green energy La La Land. People with high living standard in North Europe will think differently from most people in Global South. However as last article I put in previous post, it is where the unbalanced energy consumption will come. No batteries, or any other Green La La Land energies can be afforded by most people in this world. This is why Hydrogen being seen as attractive alternative, as they can be produce and manufacture using different methods whether Green ones, Blue ones or Grey ones. All depends on each economies wallet.

Then again even hydrogen will not and can not answer all the energy demand surges. Fossil fuel reserve is dwindling anyways, but doesn't mean it will go away especially in Global South. People that come from High Income economies can preach whatever on dangerous of Fossil Fuel to climate change. However majority of people in this planet are from Global South, where majority of them only think they need energy, and that energy must be affordable. Don't preach on children sake, they're doing their best for their own children sake with what resources that they can afford.
Some good points there.

One important thing to bear in mind is that it's not just - or mostly - about transport. Hydrogen, for example, may not be a good choice for motor vehicles, but there are a lot of industrial applications where hydrogen could work very well. I think that public discussion is too focused on transport & domestic energy use (heating, hot water, etc.) & not enough on industry & embedded CO2. Consider construction. Cement production is very carbon-intensive, & there's huge scope to reduce its CO2 emissions. Knocking down old buildings to replace them by new buildings which use less energy for heating can generate more CO2 than is saved. Making ammonia with hydrogen made by electrolysis can generate more CO2 than making it from methane, depending on how the electricity is generated. Too little attention is paid to these things, IMO.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Hydrogen, for example, may not be a good choice for motor vehicles, but there are a lot of industrial applications where hydrogen could work very well.
Under present Hydrogen Fuel Cell, it is loosing momentum in some market. With Hydrogen ICE depends on Toyota and other Japanese manufacturer and government abilities to shown how they can solve hydrogen storage and distribution remaining issues.

However many in market watch and even some anticipate positive outcome, base on Toyota and Japanese Government betting on this. At least in Asia, many government watch and take cue on how Japanese solve it. Even ROK and CCP also take a look on that.

So even for Transportation, it is still very much fluid situation. Public focus on transportation, cause it is what they see directly influence their daily lives.
 
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Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Tesla enters Malaysia: 10,000 Model Y ordered within 4 days. Tesla Model Y achieves another milestone in Malaysia (teslarati.com)

Japanese car companies are struggling in Thailand whereas Chinese companies producing EVs are rapidly increasing their sales. China-led EV boom in Thailand threatens Japan's grip on key market | Reuters

Meanwhile, EV sales are picking up in Australia. Battery-powered vehicles accounted for more than eight per cent of new cars sold in June, up from 1.1 per cent in June 2022. There are now more than 120,000 EVs in Australia.

Clearly many Asia-Pacific countries are interested in EVs.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
I remain puzzled why it is necessary to pick one and only one to be the future vehicle type. Maybe BEV will be the dominant vehicle type of the next century. Maybe hydrogen, synthetic fuel, biofuel, and everything else will end up just some special use vehicle type. But why is it that it has to be decided here in the forum today? Why not just say, "Well, BEV does looks likely, but there are companies hedging with hydrogen or something else. Let's see what happens in the next decade."
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Maybe BEV will be the dominant vehicle type of the next century. Maybe hydrogen, synthetic fuel, biofuel, and everything else will end up just some special use vehicle type. But why is it that it has to be decided here in the forum today?
Exactly, which is why I always say in this thread, the alternative tech is all still in early development. Everything is still fluid as none of tech is mature yet. Any momentum from one alternative can be reverse by something else.

Hydrogen ICE can be attractive as it is ICE, while Hydrogen Fuel Cell is like Batteries is EV. It is too early saying EV will kill ICE, or either way around. Right now majority consumers still want their ICE, but some already willing to accept EV, and certainly politicians like it. However it is not saying EV will be definitely the future or Hydrogen ICE or any future ICE derivative will kill EV trend.

Personally I still say every market can have different preference. I don't see yet any tech can replace fossil fuel by it self, thus probably combination of several tech needed. Besides who says fossil fuel will be dead? Advancement in fossil fuel tech can also reduce their carbon footprint. Anything still can happen as the tech continues development.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This article is in Indonesian, and shown nothing extraordinary. However it shown the attractiveness of Hydrogen ICE tech especially for consumers. It is relatively cheaper to integrate in to existing ICE, because it is not EV, it is existing ICE tech.

The article talk of a lecturers in one of Indonesian Transportation School (some kind of Polytechnic School), using open sources hydrolysis tech and creating portable ones. It is using pure H20 that injected into moped ICE. Giving more or less similar range (50km), if that small moped use gasoline.

For most consumers, especially in developing countries, this is the attraction of Hydrogen ICE tech rather then EV. It is cheap to convert. Off course this is will be attractive alternative for some market, especially the lower income ones.

This is the reason why many market analyst especially those in automotive market, watch Japanese automotive Giants like Toyota and Honda development on this tech. However Toyota and Honda also betting on EV tech for certain market. ICE derivatives being developed because some market especially in developing nations will want maintaining their ICE, because it is relative cheaper to convert.

All this shown the tech still evolving. Back to the article, Indonesia have large incentives to make battery EV as transportation of choices. Being the country that hold most global nickel reserve, invest heavily on battery manufacturing, the administration push hard on BEV usage.

However even with all incentives including Tax ones, most consumers in Indonesia still prefer ICE. BEV so far only touch some upper class consumers, and some millenials that can afford. Not going to say BEV or any EV will not going to catch on, but also not going to say ICE derivatives including Hydrogen ICE is a dead end.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Start-up Maka Motors in Indonesia is raising $37 million to build EV motorbikes. Indonesian EV firm Maka Motors raises $37m seed funding (techinasia.com)

Another startup, Dat Bike in Vietnam, already put products on the market: Gojek Partners with Vietnamese Electric Bike Startup Dat Bike | AsiaTechDaily - Asia's Leading Tech and Startup Media Platform

Gogoro, a rapidly growing Taiwanese company is focusing on the Indian and Indonesian market with their swappable battery solution for electric motorbikes: Gogoro Delays Expansion Into China, Focuses On India And Indonesia Instead (rideapart.com)

Will be interesting to follow these and other new companies as they develop new technology and bring it to market..
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
We in Indonesia are not committing exclusively on one thing. We can't, really. We're too big and too diverse. So don't be surprised to see Indonesia doing both battery EV and biofuel simultaneously. CEO guy in Jakarta wants a Tesla, good for them. Farmer in rural Molucca wants their Carry, good for them too.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
One other consideration is the torque of electric motors. Great for instant acceleration but there is a cost. Tire wear is faster.
You been naughty and doing burnouts at the lights? :cool:

A good illustration of their torque and its impacts is the electric car doing the Goodwood hill climb and blitzing everyone else.

This hydrogen engine is different and possibly revolutionary.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

RR work on modifications on their current engine for Hydrogen fuel. Modifications mostly in nozzle tech. All this again shown whether it is for Land, Sea or even Aero transportation, modifications on existing Combustion Engine for Hydrogen is not lossing momentum. All this because it is modifications on existing proven tech.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Despite some negative view on China as source of pollution, market data shown China in fact lead in Global Green Energy tranformation. However that's does not mean this will reduce the global demand of Hydrocarbon. Since the gap that left behind by China will be absorb by India.

This is shown what already been seen by Market on this Green Energy transition:

1. Level of average Income will determine pace of transition. More affluent society can transition faster. So it's economics that determine that, not some kind of any moral thinking.
2. There's still no one solution on new energy against Hydrocarbon, it will take combination of new energy to do that. That's why China investment on everything, from Water, Wind, Solar, Hydrogen, Battery, and Nuclear.

All this also shown demand from Hydrocarbon will not go away anytime soon. Unlike some Grenies campaign. Imagine that China getting riche, and transit. Then their demand will be pick up by Indian Sub Continent (South Asia) and South East Asia. When they are getting richer thus able to absorb new energy, their demand for Hydrocarbon will taking over by Africa.

The demand for hydrocarbon not only taken by less richer society, but also those with more demographic growth. Personally I hope tech and cost for Hydrogen picking up, thus make transition for new energy become more affordable.
 
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