Future Energy Pathways

[Ananda]

Hydrogen’s decade

The global race for clean hydrogen means new geopolitical realities and interdependence

www.imf.org

Unlike oil and gas, hydrogen is a manufactured product. It can be produced wherever you have electricity and water. Even when it is produced from natural gas, it is a conversion business rather than an extraction business. Hydrogen is therefore not a zero-carbon version of oil.

This part of the article explain why Investment in Hydrogen increasing and as IMF put, will going exponential in this decade. One thing with hydrogen potential of either Blue, Grey and Green ones, is potential for more energy independence. Batteries is still going to depend on those producers and raw materials reserve holders.

In such that's not going be much difference with dependences toward Fossil Fuels producers. This is why resource poor country like Japan is investing big on Hydrogen. Even China and South Korea also goes there. China in fact invest on every potential of renewable energy sources. Hydrogen shown potential for some rich but resources poor nations to be more energy source independence.

Why Hydrogen Cars Are Better Than Electric Cars

Hydrogen cars offer the best of ICEs and EVs, and with a lot of automakers investing in this technology, we'll soon see a lot of them on the road

www.topspeed.com

Ford has patented an internal combustion engine that burns hydrogen instead of gasoline. Toyota has also developed a hydrogen engine for the Corolla Sport H2 concept, which has already been tested in racing. While the is still in the research phases, a hydrogen engine would take all of the developments in engine design throughout the history of the automobile, and use them on a clean-burning fuel

Beyond Batteries: Hydrogen Combustion Engine, A Viable Alternative for Clean Mobility - Saur Energy International

Hydrogen Combustion Engine can be a huge rival to current EV technology, marred with several challenges like range anxiety and charging time.

www.saurenergy.com

What many market analyst now watch on potential hydrogen game changer is not the Hydrogen Fuel Cells, but the Hydrogen ICE (Internal Combustion Engine). What some market already drop is Hydrogen Fuel Cells. Hydrogen ICE is being watch because it is make possible current ICE tech being converted on using Hydrogen as Fossil Fuel replacement.

Hydrogen-Fueled Gas Turbines | GE Vernova

Learn more about GE's leadership in the use of hydrogen in gas turbines, and what it will take to reach a 100% hydrogen future.

www.ge.com

How Does A Hydrogen Jet Engine Work?

As Airbus and CFM partner on the manufacturer's A380 testbed, we take a look at how hydrogen internal combustion engines work.

simpleflying.com

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The fuel cells generate electricity from hydrogen and then use that electricity in an electric motor, much like an electric vehicle. Meanwhile, with internal combustion, hydrogen is used the same way as gasoline or jet fuel. Liquid or gaseous hydrogen is burned in a gas-turbine engine to generate thrust.

In the end economics that matter. ICE replacing steam engines because the economics and potential of ICE making more sense then steam engines. Alternative Energy is still more or less new, and everything still evolving. However Hydrogen ICE is being watch cause it is simply going to be:

1. More familiar with the market and customer,
2. Using existing support systems,
3. Current Energy giant support Hydrogen as it can use their existing distribution infrastructure.

Batteries will have advantage on certain market, and saying all market will choose only batteries or hydrogen or other alternative energy is not realistic. Again no one type of alternative energy so far able to be alternative for fossil fuels by only it self.

One other thing, who can be sure even that fossil fuels will go away ? That's so far only some western liberal believe and hope. There those in West especially US that going to cling on with their precious gasoline.

Africa for one thing will going to out strip Asian population in next few decades. They will (like most Global South) use the energy choices that more benefits them, regardless what OECD and West going to say. Most global population will choose what energy source that matter most with their income. Who can be certain that alternative fuels will be affordable for most Global South population? That's where most global population living.

How Inadequate Energy Supply Is Disrupting The World Economy | OilPrice.com

The world economy is at risk of collapsing due to insufficient energy supply, with signs of distress evident in rising conflicts, fragmentation of political parties, and shortages of goods and services.

oilprice.com

Likewise, the world economy requires a variety of energy products to operate. Substitutions can sometimes be made, but the overall quantity must be sufficient to support the activities of the economy, including providing adequate food and water for the population and ways to transport these items to the population that needs them.

Something to think about. As world getting crowded, economies competing on energy resources that available, World need multiple energy sources in foreseable future. This includes keep extracting fossil fuels. Because it is not going be enough energy supply available if it is only using one or two energy sources.

Each market/economies will use their choices of energy base on each economical preference and their capabilities.

 

[Vivendi]

Why Hydrogen Cars Are Better Than Electric Cars

Hydrogen cars offer the best of ICEs and EVs, and with a lot of automakers investing in this technology, we'll soon see a lot of them on the road

www.topspeed.com

Those who wrote this clearly are not well informed. Or they have been sponsored to produce a specific message. Alan Finkel, the former chief scientist and author of Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy, says that hydrogen cars are unlikely to be sold in great numbers. Finkel is uniquely placed to make such a judgement, as the author of the Australia's hydrogen strategy, and as an owner of both an EV, and one of the few owners in Australia of a hydrogen electric car: He drives a Toyota Mirai. Finkel also says it is now clear that hydrogen will not be used in reticulated gas systems for home heating or home cooking, because its expensive and because of the difficulty, and the slowness with which the industry has moved.
"Nothing can compete:" Finkel concedes battery electric beats hydrogen cars (thedriven.io)

Some experts believe Hydrogen cannot even compete with batteries for long-distance trucks:
Hydrogen for long-distance trucking makes no sense, says expert (thedriven.io)

In the end economics that matter.

I agree completely and that's why it's unlikely that Hydrogen will be a big player. The production, storage, and transport of Hydrogen will remain more expensive than production, storage and transport of electricity. Hydrogen will play an important role in several industrial applications, and other niche areas. But it's not going to play a major role as some people predicted even just a few years ago (and a few still predict this, but their numbers are dwindling).

ICE replacing steam engines because the economics and potential of ICE making more sense then steam engines. Alternative Energy is still more or less new, and everything still evolving. However Hydrogen ICE is being watch cause it is simply going to be:

1. More familiar with the market and customer,
2. Using existing support systems,
3. Current Energy giant support Hydrogen as it can use their existing distribution infrastructure.

1. I can assure you that when people realize the price difference between owning a Hydrogen car and a battery car, most will choose the latter, and adapt to the "unfamiliar". Around 90% of private cars sold in Norway today are battery cars, demonstrating that most people can quite easily adapt. (so far this year no Hydrogen cars were sold by the way...) Also, it's wrong to think that driving Hydrogen car does not require at least some level of adaptation. For instance you need to get used to the idea that if there is a tiny leak in a valve somewhere, a small spark from e.g. static electricity may trigger a major explosion. And until there is a significant infrastructure in place, most people may need to spend some time getting to and from a Hydrogen station. Today's stations have a limited capacity in how many cars they can refill each day (in 2018 the largest in the US could provide 350 kg in 24 hours, meaning a maximum of 70 cars in 24 hours if each car is happy with 5 kg H2 each...). So if it's a major holiday and you are unlucky you may have to wait some time for the station to deliquefy and pressurize the H2 before you can start the rapid 5-minute filling... 600 kg / 24 hours stations are in the planning stage, in the US these will require a minimum of 18,000 square feet due to safety regulations. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program Record 19005: 600 kg/day Hydrogen Fueling Station Footprint (energy.gov)
2. What support systems?
3. Hydrogen can use very little of existing distribution infrastructure, and this is one of the major drawbacks of Hydrogen. New, very expensive distribution infrastructure must be put in place.

One other thing, who can be sure even that fossil fuels will go away ? That's so far only some western liberal believe and hope. There those in West especially US that going to cling on with their precious gasoline.

Africa for one thing will going to out strip Asian population in next few decades. They will (like most Global South) use the energy choices that more benefits them, regardless what OECD and West going to say. Most global population will choose what energy source that matter most with their income. Who can be certain that alternative fuels will be affordable for most Global South population? That's where most global population living.

Well I hope for the sake of our children, and in particular the children living in Africa, India and other places that will be hit very hard by the climate change, that we will all move away from gasoline as soon as possible. The world is on the brink of a catastrophic development due to climate change. The heat waves and flooding we have seen in the last few years will be considered "minor" events in the future.

 

[Ananda]

Those who wrote this clearly are not well informed. Or they have been sponsored to produce a specific message. Alan Finkel, the former chief scientist and author of Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy, says that hydrogen cars are unlikely to be sold in great numbers. Fi

No they well informed much more then you and me, and your talk above shown you are the one that clearly don't understand the difference between Hydrogen Fuel Cells and Hydrogen ICE. Again, read all the article and what market analyst talk about, it is the Hydrogen ICE that big auto company now working as they also understand the problem with hydrogen fuel cell.

What support system, you ask? Do you understand what is ICE support systems means? It means they will use capabilities of existing ICE garage, existing vendors, existing spare parts manufacturing. Hydrogen ICE whether for Auto, Ships or Plane will use existing fossil fuel engine tech and only major different instead using gasoline, diesels, avgas/avtur, they are using Hydrogen.

Put it this way so you are not confusing again between Hydrogen Fuel Cell and Hydrogen ICE. Both Batteries and Hydrogen Fuel Cells are both electric vehicles. Hydrogen ICE is not. It is ICE vehicle. You say people understand the difference between Hydrogen and Batteries car, but at least yourself don't understand different between Hydrogen ICE and Hydrogen Fuel Cell. Cause you still lumping Hydrogen Fuel Cells with Hydrogen ICE as one, despite all the articles above and all before that's being put. Again even tough both fuel by Hydrogen, it is very different tech altogether.

The difference is the need of huge batteries cells. Hydrogen Fuel Cells still need huge batteries, even tough not as big as pure EV batteries car. Hydrogen ICE just like current fossil fuel ICE don't. That's the problem, batteries is expensive and despite all the drives for better batteries tech, it is for most people in the world, still more expensive then the alternative

The electric car ‘revolution’ is a disaster before it’s begun

Politicians are forcing electric cars on a public that doesn’t want them

www.telegraph.co.uk

Think about it for a second: an entire industry not only forced to abandon a product that the vast majority of people still want and use, but also bullied into channelling all its resources into making something on a colossal level that there simply isn’t the market for – at least not within the horrendously short timeframe that is being imposed on car manufacturers.

Around 90% of private cars sold in Norway today are battery cars, demonstrating that most people can quite easily adapt.

I can assure you most people in the world still not want EV. Looking at the telegraph article above clearly not even all European like to think about EV as most Scandinavian do. The World will not become Greta's La La Land thinking. That's the fact, as most people in this world even in Europe can not afford North European standard.

I come from country that sit on most World Nickel reserve. Having the ambition became World leading batteries producers, and work on that. Even then, behind the fan fare also working on increasing hydrogen production potential especially the Blue Hydrogen (as we are also sitting on big natural gas reserve), even tough they call it Green Hydrogen. Is it because due to Hydrogen Fuel Cells? No, they are waiting and betting as most in automotive and propulsion industries, on the development on Hydrogen ICE for all type of transportation.

Do you think Ships or Plane will move to Batteries? No they won't, as it is too heavy. Even with the so call potential solid batteries tech wonder. Personally I can see some in urban transportation using more batteries, but long range inter cities and heavy transportation still using ICE, whether hydrogen ones, alternative synthetic or hybrid fossil fuels. Europe will want to stop fossil fuels cars? Well that's EU goal, and not most others goals.

Btw where those electricity coming from? Wind, solar? EU better think back to accept Nuclear ones, or that electricity still come from Fossil Fuels as presently where those EV being charge using electricity from fossil fuels.

Hydrogen can use very little of existing distribution infrastructure, and t

Well not what most of oil companies think, as they see their 'Blue' hydrogen can use on modified their current existing distribution network. That's why billions being build on hydrogen capacities production.

Hope for the sake of our children, and in particular the children living in Africa, India and other places that will be hit very hard by the climate change, that we will all move away from gasoline as soon as possible

People will move on energy that can be afforded by them not some Green energy La La Land. People with high living standard in North Europe will think differently from most people in Global South. However as last article I put in previous post, it is where the unbalanced energy consumption will come. No batteries, or any other Green La La Land energies can be afforded by most people in this world. This is why Hydrogen being seen as attractive alternative, as they can be produce and manufacture using different methods whether Green ones, Blue ones or Grey ones. All depends on each economies wallet.

Then again even hydrogen will not and can not answer all the energy demand surges. Fossil fuel reserve is dwindling anyways, but doesn't mean it will go away especially in Global South. People that come from High Income economies can preach whatever on dangerous of Fossil Fuel to climate change. However majority of people in this planet are from Global South, where majority of them only think they need energy, and that energy must be affordable. Don't preach on children sake, they're doing their best for their own children sake with what resources that they can afford.

 

[Ananda]

This guy video is quite compact on telling the difference between Hydrogen ICE vs Gasoline ICE. The second one is between Hydrogen ICE vs Hydrogen Fuel Cells. Put it this as seems to shown difference as I put on post above Hydrogen Fuel Cells is basically EV car that use Hydrogen to get electricity. While Hydrogen ICE, well it's ICE that using Hydrogen as fuel instead Gasoline or Diesel or other form of Fossil Fuel including LPG.

This is shown also more explanation on Hydrogen Fuel Cell. Which shown it is basically EV car.

Even Elon now also open for Hydrogen development.

However the problem right now for Hydrogen ICE as also LPG ICE is the amount of storage needed to store the fuel is much bigger then liquid fossil fuel. That's one of reason why LPG ICE can't compete with Gasoline/Diesel ICE. Customer doesn't like the idea on having more their storage room taking over by bigger tank. This is area that many automotive and engine producers work out now.

Still this is shown why Hydrogen ICE unlike Hydrogen Fuel Cell is the one that some betting on. Because simply it is using existing ICE tech, and means ICE manufacturing facilities and support infrastructure (for those who still not understand why Hydrogen ICE can using existing ICE support infrastructure).

Again this is also not saying Hydrogen will replace batteries, or the other way around. All the progress now on Batteries, Hydrogen Fuel Cell and Hydrogen ICE are shown tech for alternate fuels still need more time to mature. More likely tough resulting on not just one single solution that can replace fossil fuel altogether.

 

[kato]

Still this is shown why Hydrogen ICE unlike Hydrogen Fuel Cell is the one that some betting on.

One should take that with the caveat that actual R&D on Hydrogen ICE is rather limited, and mostly centered on a handful companies in Japan. European companies tend to focus their research for wider-usable technology on hydrogen FC in various variants or hydrogen-recharged battery-electric engines.

Hydrogen ICE technology is not without problems either - Hydrogen ICE has a lower energy conversion efficiency than diesel ICE, it's fairly hard running on liquid hydrogen, and it also requires some materials science (towards ceramics) to develop ICE engines that can work long-term without problems burning hydrogen. That's also why R&D in the field nowadays is often focused on applications where the engines only need to work short-term and over short (small-tank) distances while price is not an issue - such as specifically racing engines.

That's one of reason why LPG ICE can't compete with Gasoline/Diesel ICE.

LPG is actually fairly common in some places in the world, although either being restricted geographically to specific countries (e.g. 20% market share in Turkey or some former Soviet countries) or being restricted to low-visibility markets (e.g. agriculture with market shares of up to 80% in some countries like the US).

 

[John Fedup]

Economic factors will likely decide which technologies are best for specific markets. Still lots of R&D going on so time will tell. Hydrogen storage and distribution isn’t easy. The resources for batteries and electric motors are a formidable challenge as well.

 

[Ananda]

Hydrogen ICE technology is not without problems either - Hydrogen ICE has a lower energy conversion efficiency than diesel ICE, it's fairly hard running on liquid hydrogen, and it also requires some materials science (towards ceramics) to develop ICE engines that can work long-term without problems burning hydrogen.

Agree, it is need further RnD on that matter. Storage problem on Hydrogen ICE means with the same space of gasoline tank, they can only do much shorter range. Materials also being admitted now making Hydrogen ICE more expensive then Gasoline or Diesel ICE. The videos in my post shown that as disadvantaged of Hydrogen ICE. Still compare to price of batteries EV, the cost is not much different.

Yes it is Japanese that leading on that Hydrogen ICE RnD at this moment, and all related as Japan drive for Hydrogen. Japan drive on Hydrogen related to they see Hydrogen as part of effort to achieve more Energy Independence. Batteries is still depends on raw materials sources which at this moment control by China (on Lithium and other Raw Earth materials) and Indonesia (for Nickel). For Japan then Hydrogen provides better choices on reducing energy sources dependence.

All the post that I put mostly to shown that Hydrogen is not a dead end technology. It is like batteries and other alternative energy are in maturing process, and all still have equal potential. However if we see Hydrogen ICE, the path of maturity also now more related to storage problem. This if we see RnD path development, not something that unreachable to solve.

As for wider potential, well if the Japanese can solve storage problem for one thing, Hydrogen ICE has actual wider potential then Hydrogen Fuel Cell and Batteries. Because basically it is ICE, something that already being use as base on global propulsion tech for more then a century. On this I agree with the Japanese.

Economic factors will likely decide which technologies are best for specific markets.

Exactly, so far the alternative energy development shown not one alternative energy tech that going to be able taken as Fossil Fuel alternative or even replacement on it's own. Need combination of all energy pathways to do that.

Higher Income vs Lower Income market has different calculations on alternative energy. Even similar high income market can be different. Which even raise question on synchronized choices.

This is make big producers hedging their RnD on multiple path, as potentially every market will need different energy preferences. People say Toyota late on EV, and more interested on developing Hybrid EV-ICE and Hydrogen ICE. But they are also shown big RnD development on EV especially for Chinese market (and potentially Euro ones).

https://www.thestreet.com/electric-vehicles/toyota-has-a-game-changing-solution-for-a-common-ev-issue

Taking cue from one market as benchmark for one tech preference is over simplifying information for base on conclusion. Personally though most of Global consumers and the producers are more comfortable with ICE tech. Which is why some engine producers willing to spend billions on Hydrogen ICE RnD. Cause it is potentially that's going to get easier acceptance by most market as fossil fuel alternatives.

 

[Vivendi]

No they well informed much more then you and me, and your talk above shown you are the one that clearly don't understand the difference between Hydrogen Fuel Cells and Hydrogen ICE. Again, read all the article and what market analyst talk about, it is the Hydrogen ICE that big auto company now working as they also understand the problem with hydrogen fuel cell.

They claim a big advantage of FCEVs over BEVs are that the former are much lighter than the latter. Tesla M3 Long Range weighs only 20kg more than the Toyota Mirai, and has roughly the same range (WLTP range 614 km vs 650 km). However Tesla M3 has substantially larger cargo space (648 Litres (inc. 88L Frunk) vs 272 Litres(!)) is much cheaper to operate (fuel costs: 32 NOK / 100 km vs 168 NOK / 100 km), and the car itself is also much cheaper. They also compare the range of Nissan Leaf to the Mirai! A Leaf costs just a fraction of the Mirai, and is in a completely different class.

Yes I noticed they also talked about Hydrogen ICE cars. However the cargo space in a H2 ICE car will be even more limited than in a FCEV, since it is much less efficient and therefore needs even more H2 to provide a decent range. Also, many of the issues with FCEV and H2 ICE will be the same: lack of fuel infrastructure, lack of support infrastructure (those high-pressure fuel tanks must be inspected and approved every 2-3 years), high cost of fuel, and safety concerns due to the explosive nature of H2 + air.

What support system, you ask? Do you understand what is ICE support systems means? It means they will use capabilities of existing ICE garage, existing vendors, existing spare parts manufacturing. Hydrogen ICE whether for Auto, Ships or Plane will use existing fossil fuel engine tech and only major different instead using gasoline, diesels, avgas/avtur, they are using Hydrogen.

Only relevant for companies like Toyota etc. Tesla, Nio, Rivian, Lucid, and (to some extent) BYD don't care about this. Tesla already built their own
support structure in a large number of countries including North America, most of Europe, China, Korea, Japan, etc. Not only support structure, they also built extensive charging infrastructure in the same countries. Besides, apart from the engine and battery, a lot of the same support structure for ICE cars can be used for BEVs. In many European countries (and China!) there is already an extensive support structure for BEVs in place, and this will keep growing.

The difference is the need of huge batteries cells. Hydrogen Fuel Cells still need huge batteries, even tough not as big as pure EV batteries car. Hydrogen ICE just like current fossil fuel ICE don't. That's the problem, batteries is expensive and despite all the drives for better batteries tech, it is for most people in the world, still more expensive then the alternative

FVCEV don't need a "huge battery". The Mirai has a 4kW battery whereas most modern BEVs have batteries 15-20 times bigger. You are right that such large batteries are currently quite expensive, but FCEV cars are also very expensive. H2 ICE cars may be slightly cheaper, however, those H2 tanks will most likely increase the price. They must also be very large to fit both tanks and cargo! Small H2 ICE cars will either have extremely short range (and be useless) or have no cargo space (and be useless).

Battery prices are set to drop considerably over the next 5-10 years. Nio is selling cars with the first 150kW semi-solid state batteries this year, and Prologium is building a 3 GWh factory in Taiwan and is planning a 48 GWh factory in France, to manufacture solid-state batteries with much better performance than today's batteries. Others will follow suit.

Document Shows Nio ES6 With 577-Mile Range, 150-kWh Solid-State Battery (insideevs.com)
ProLogium creates solid-state battery pack with higher energy density - electrive.com

Chinese fuel cell maker is doing the only sensible thing and stops working on cars, focusing on trucks instead. However even for some trucks batteries are still much cheaper, but subsidies makes fuel cells more attractive:

A 49-tonne truck priced at 1.3 million yuan will be given subsidies of 924,000 yuan from the central and local governments, bringing the purchase price down to just 376,000 yuan. An EV truck of the same size is said to cost 989,000 yuan.

China's fuel cell vehicle push stalls out amid EV boom - Nikkei Asia
So there is a real possibility that over the next 5-10 years new battery technology will make even large FC trucks unattractive. Too little is known about the Hydrogen ICE option at this point, but I remain skeptical due to the lack of infrastructure and the safety concerns.

 

[John Fedup]

One thing to consider is the weight of EV compared to gas vehicles. Apparently suspensions in Tesla vehicles haven’t been beefed up to handle the extra weight. A repair (basically replacement) here is 8,000 CDN, about 6,000 USD. A colleague of my brother has a 7-8 Tesla that he paid over 100k CDN. Decided the new suspension wasn’t worth it.

 

[Vivendi]

Some specific Teslas have had suspension issues but this is a small minority. Tesla has sold around 4.5 million cars, and 1.3 million last year. If the suspension was inadequate, they would not have been able to sell 1.3 million cars in 2022. Sales in 2023 is also pretty strong so far.
Tesla Sales Q2 2023: Production & Revenue (Statistics Update) (tridenstechnology.com)

 

[Feanor]

One thing to consider is the weight of EV compared to gas vehicles. Apparently suspensions in Tesla vehicles haven’t been beefed up to handle the extra weight. A repair (basically replacement) here is 8,000 CDN, about 6,000 USD. A colleague of my brother has a 7-8 Tesla that he paid over 100k CDN. Decided the new suspension wasn’t worth it.

It's only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to problems with EVs. The weight difference, stemming from energy density issues, mean that you have increased wear and tear on roads. And road construction is a massive source of CO2. Production of EVs has a bigger carbon footprint then production of regular cars. Their service life in terms of miles drive is considerably shorter, so they have to be replaced more often. If you have two large cities, both car-dependent sprawls with all the associated infrastructure, but one with gas powered cars and the other with EVs, I'm not sold that the one with EVs would have a total smaller carbon footprint for their transportation system as a whole. I think the best way forward in reality is to continue to push for improvements in efficiency on gasoline engines, work on reducing the weight of cars, and require companies to provide 10 year warranties for vehicles to increase their service life. In the US they should probably also close the Light Trucks loophole that allows them to duck out of many of the regulations governing regular cars. There is no sane reason why some of the most sold cars should be Ford F-150s and Chevrolet Silverados. People aren't hauling that much stuff.

 

[swerve]

It's only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to problems with EVs. .... Their service life in terms of miles drive is considerably shorter, so they have to be replaced more often. ...

Can you give evidence for that? It doesn't fit my experience, though I realise that's not extensive enough to reliably extrapolate to all users.

 

[Feanor]

Can you give evidence for that? It doesn't fit my experience, though I realise that's not extensive enough to reliably extrapolate to all users.

Sure. Let me unpack this a little and go point by point.

Weight.

So for weight, here's the NTSB. Their concern is safety in collisions, but for our purpose we just need to note that they are in fact heavier. The collision issue is just one of many other issues with EVs not directly related to emissions. If you want more specific comparisons you're welcome to dig it up yourself, there's data available, for the purpose of this discussion it's enough to know that they are substantially heavier.

https://www.npr.org/2023/01/11/1148483758/ntsb-heavy-electric-vehicles-safety-risks

To be thorough, here's a piece on the relationship of vehicle weight to road wear. It's pretty significant. It's another one of the problems with everyone driving an SUV, but it's also a problem with switching to EVs.

Chart of the Day: Vehicle Weight vs Road Damage Levels

Via Pedal Fort Collins, here’s a simple chart showing the basic relationship between vehicle weight and the amount of “damage” or wear that is caused to the roadway. The relations…

streets.mn

And here's a piece on green house gas emissions from road construction. Granted they're using China as an example, but I think we can generalize. Road construction has a significant carbon footprint. Within a city-sized transportation grid, if we're talking about a car-dependent suburban (or even semi-urban) sprawl they will be a statistically significant contribution, especially since it's not just roads but also parking infrastructure.

Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Road Construction by Considering the Regional Differences in Carbon Emission Factors of Cement: The Case of China

Rapid road construction and expansion in China resulted in massive GHG emissions. The carbon emission factors of raw materials, particularly cement, have a significant influence on the calculation of GHG emissions from road construction. This study estimates GHG emissions from road construction...

www.mdpi.com

Production.

Ok so does EV production have a bigger carbon footprint then a production of a functionally identical gasoline powered car? Yes. There is no debate about this. What the numbers are varies, and probably depends on vehicles and manufacturers, but Volvo says it's 70% more. Life cycle analysis says that the EV is still better (according to Ford 50-70% better), but they're leaving out frequency of replacements, and road repair from that math.

Volvo Says Manufacturing An Electric Car Generates 70 Percent More Emissions Than Its ICE Equivalent | Carscoops

However, over the course of 124,000 miles, the EV will have a 15–50 percent lower carbon footprint than the petrol car

www.carscoops.com

E.V.s Start With a Bigger Carbon Footprint. But That Doesn’t Last. (Published 2022)

The manufacturing and disposal of electric vehicles result in more greenhouse gases than nonelectric models, but that difference will eventually disappear altogether.

www.nytimes.com

Service Life.

This one gets a little trickier. In general EVs can last a long time (service life in years vs. service life in mileage), so in theory and looking at some sort of generalized statistic, one might be tempted to conclude that this is a non-issue, but this simply isn't true. EVs start to hold steadily less and less charge as they get older. Meaning they can still work and can still function as a local commuter, but can't handle longer commutes anymore. Super-commuters (3+ total hours of commute time combined per day) are a reality of life in California, and many other states too. 50+ miles one-way is not an unusual commute for many people. Generally this doesn't lead to those cars getting scrapped but instead replaced and relegated to local commuting roles. Hot climates accelerate the decay of battery service life, as does using fast charging stations, as does using over 80% of the charge, and then refilling it, or even charging it to 100% regularly. From what I understand cold weather doesn't degrade the battery itself but will lead to you getting fewer miles out of it. Estimates of how quickly they degrade vary, from as little as 5% in the first 50k miles (Tesla), an average claim of 2.3% per year (per Geotab). Generally claims seem to talk about vehicle lasting 10-20 years and 100k-200k miles before the battery dies. Assuming you drive like an average Californian (14.5k miles per year) you're looking at a service life of just over 10 years, based on a halfway point assumed lifespan. If you're a super-commuter the math changes. For comparison, I have a Nissan Maxima that's at 200k miles and hasn't had a single breakdown yet, just maintenance. It's still my daily commuter. This would be the point at which the EV battery would be dead even if we took the high-end 200k miles estimate for service life.

How Long Should An Electric Car’s Battery Last? | MYEV.com

An electric car's battery is the vehicle’s most critical – and expensive – component. Fortunately it should be able to go the distance.

www.myev.com

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/advice/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last

All in all, I'm not thrilled with the trend to go to electric cars. There are a lot of other issues to discuss, like whether there's enough lithium to around, to the fact that EVs tend to be more expensive, and therefore an EV transition amounts to an environmental "flat tax" on car owners. Some of this is solvable of course (progressive tax on everyone and use the money to subsidize EV costs for low-income and mid-income purchasers), and battery tech isn't standing still. I think in reality there needs to be better investment into public transportation and a re-thinking of how the positive aspects of suburbia (large average home sizes and high home-ownership rates) can be retained while transitioning away from that urban development model. I think the problem isn't gas vs. electric. The problem is the daily car commute itself.

 

[John Fedup]

One other consideration is the torque of electric motors. Great for instant acceleration but there is a cost. Tire wear is faster.

 

[swerve]

Sure. Let me unpack this a little and go point by point.
...

Service Life.

This one gets a little trickier. In general EVs can last a long time (service life in years vs. service life in mileage), so in theory and looking at some sort of generalized statistic, one might be tempted to conclude that this is a non-issue, but this simply isn't true. EVs start to hold steadily less and less charge as they get older. Meaning they can still work and can still function as a local commuter, but can't handle longer commutes anymore. Super-commuters (3+ total hours of commute time combined per day) are a reality of life in California, and many other states too. 50+ miles one-way is not an unusual commute for many people. Generally this doesn't lead to those cars getting scrapped but instead replaced and relegated to local commuting roles. Hot climates accelerate the decay of battery service life, as does using fast charging stations, as does using over 80% of the charge, and then refilling it, or even charging it to 100% regularly. From what I understand cold weather doesn't degrade the battery itself but will lead to you getting fewer miles out of it. Estimates of how quickly they degrade vary, from as little as 5% in the first 50k miles (Tesla), an average claim of 2.3% per year (per Geotab). Generally claims seem to talk about vehicle lasting 10-20 years and 100k-200k miles before the battery dies. Assuming you drive like an average Californian (14.5k miles per year) you're looking at a service life of just over 10 years, based on a halfway point assumed lifespan. If you're a super-commuter the math changes. For comparison, I have a Nissan Maxima that's at 200k miles and hasn't had a single breakdown yet, just maintenance. It's still my daily commuter. This would be the point at which the EV battery would be dead even if we took the high-end 200k miles estimate for service life.

How Long Should An Electric Car’s Battery Last? | MYEV.com

An electric car's battery is the vehicle’s most critical – and expensive – component. Fortunately it should be able to go the distance.

www.myev.com

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/advice/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last

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Battery life isn't the same as service life, though.

My experience of hybrid batteries (obviously, not the same, but a useful reference) is that they can last a very long time & for a lot of miles, in a duty cycle which is quite hard on ICEs - taxis. Taxi drivers here in the UK were slow to adopt hybrids, despite the claimed fuel economy advantages for stop-start urban cycles, because they were concerned about the lifetime of batteries & the cost of battery replacement. In recent years that's changed, because they now know that the average battery life is much higher than they expected. Manufacturers such as Toyota now give a much greater warrantied battery life than they used to.

A few years ago a taxi drive my stepfather knew had a hybrid which had done 300,000 miles & the battery was still good. When the car finally wore out he intended to buy the same again. He reckoned that it had saved him a lot of money in both fuel & maintenance over a conventional petrol or diesel fuelled equivalent. Not a statistically significant sample, of course, but the very high number of new hybrid (including plug-in hybrid) taxis suggests that it's not atypical. There are also all-electric taxis appearing on the streets.

My stepfather got a very good trade-in price for his 13 year old hybrid. My wife was offered far more than she expected for her first hybrid when she traded it in for a new car. They'd both done over 100K miles. The cost of battery replacement is factored into what dealers offer, of course, but trade-in prices seem to be higher for both hybrids & all-electric cars than conventional ICEs.

Of course, the type of driving you do affects it. Lots of long-distance motorway driving isn't the ideal regime for electric vehicles to demonstrate advantages over ICEs.

 

[Ananda]

Tesla already built their own
support structure in a large number of countries including North America, most of Europe, China, Korea, Japan, etc. Not only support structure, they also built extensive charging infrastructure in the same countries.

And yet now Elon begin to playing with Hydrogen. Sometimes that just couple years back he says stupid way on storing energy.

All the progress now on Batteries, Hydrogen Fuel Cell and Hydrogen ICE are shown tech for alternate fuels still need more time to mature. More likely tough resulting on not just one single solution that can replace fossil fuel altogether.

I put my quote again as problem for Hydrogen ICE more now on storing the H2. Yes at this moment it is the problem, just as I put on my reply to Kato before. The video you put is the one I put before in my three previous posts.

So why do you think they can't solve it. Batteries still have problems, it is expensive and depending on some rare earth materials and nikel which is control only by some countries. H2 are having more potential for resource poor nation like Japan to become more energy independent. All this still need to mature and each market potentially can have their own preferences. Why if Euro want to build preferences in EV then means everyone else must follow ?

Again if Japanese can solve problem with Hydrogen tank, it means their bet on Hydrogen ICE can be more preferable then EV. I can tell for most developing nations it can be more preferable choices due to ICE is something that everybody already familiar with.

What I don't agree is the talk that Hydrogen is dead end alternatives. Cause now, every alternatives is still in early stages of development. Batteries have problem, Hydrogen also. At this time around both of them still have similar chances to suceed, depends on each market preferences.

For one thing I don't see just one single solutions for replacing fossil fuels. It is more likely combinations of several solutions. This also includes hybrid fossil fuels or bio fuels.

 

[Vivendi]

And yet now Elon begin to playing with Hydrogen. Sometimes that just couple years back he says stupid way on storing energy.

No he is not! You are referring to an April fools joke! Musk put words from electric to hydrogen energy? This could be another Piece of April Fool's Day news - laitimes

So why do you think they can't solve it. Batteries still have problems, it is expensive and depending on some rare earth materials and nikel which is control only by some countries. H2 are having more potential for resource poor nation like Japan to become more energy independent. All this still need to mature and each market potentially can have their own preferences. Why if Euro want to build preferences in EV then means everyone else must follow ?

They have not yet found a potential solution for storing H2 that will address all the issues.

Whereas there are several very promising battery technologies already being demonstrated in the labs, and some are already being commercialized this year, as pointed out above. That's the difference.

It's not about "Euro want to build preferences" -- Europe is investing in H2 infrastructure however so far very few are interested in buying H2 vehicles. The same is seen in Japan, which has already a quite good H2 infrastructure -- small but good enough considering the tiny number of cars. Hardly anybody in Japan are currently buying H2 vehicles. People in Japan have realized that BEVs are much better, cheaper and overall more attractive than H2 cars. H2 ICE are not available, and will not be until the H2 storage problem is resolved. Since they don't even have a potential solution in the labs, it's impossible to make reasonable predictions about H2 ICE at the current stage. In the meantime, a large selection of BEVs is already available in Japan, China, Europe and elsewhere. The selection of BEVs will keep growing, in particular when better battery technology becomes available.

BEV sales in Japan were low compared to traditional ICE cars in 2022, but still much higher than H2 FCEV (93,464 vs 844 -- a factor of 110!!!)
Imported EV sales in Japan jump 65% to record high in FY 2022 (kyodonews.net)
Dismal sales undercut Toyota and Hyundai as they push hydrogen fuel-cell cars | The Japan Times

 

[Ananda]

They have not yet found a potential solution for storing H2 that will address all the issues.

Toyota working on and pouring money on that problem. I trust Toyota more on that.

Toyota Develops Storage Module Utilizing Resin High-Pressure Hydrogen Tanks | Corporate | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

Toyota Motor Corporation (Toyota) announced today that it has developed a hydrogen storage module that integrates multiple resin high-pressure hydrogen tanks at 70 MPa for automobiles―already proven in the "Mirai" fuel cell vehicle (FCEV)―and safety devices such as a hydrogen detector and an...

global.toyota

The only wrong thing I got in this Hydrogen debate is believing on Elon April Fools. So do believe that Hydrogen is foolish path as Elon did. This claim and counter claim of you and me on hydrogen is getting no where. Cause again all alternatives energy is still in early stages, and anything can happen.

 

[Vivendi]

Toyota working on and pouring money on that problem. I trust Toyota more on that.

Toyota Develops Storage Module Utilizing Resin High-Pressure Hydrogen Tanks | Corporate | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

Toyota Motor Corporation (Toyota) announced today that it has developed a hydrogen storage module that integrates multiple resin high-pressure hydrogen tanks at 70 MPa for automobiles―already proven in the "Mirai" fuel cell vehicle (FCEV)―and safety devices such as a hydrogen detector and an...

global.toyota

The link above shows just that Toyota has developed a system to store H2 at 70MPa (=700 bar, 10,000 PSI). This is the pressure that was used in the Youtube video we both linked to. This is the current baseline for H2 storage, and the standard used in Europe, US and Japan today. 70MPa is "good enough" for FCEV, but not for H2 ICE, as demonstrated in the Youtube video. In other words, you have not shown anything that indicates they are working towards a solution to this problem.

 

[Ananda]

Like a standard Corolla, the Cross H2 Concept has room for 5 passengers and their luggage.

Here's How Toyota Could Save The Internal Combustion Engine

With an approach to achieving carbon neutrality, Toyota is betting on running combustion engines on Hydrogen, but it faces some challenges.

www.topspeed.com

Guess you now going to claim Toyota is lying? Again from the beginning on this debate I always said what now market analyst watch on Hydrogen cars is the potential for Hydrogen ICE.

You always come back with prove on dismall Hydrogen Fuell Cells, which is different thing. Then you come back with the argument that Hydrogen ICE is not in market yet. Is that any prove that Hydrogen ICE going to be falling?

Then you go back to the argument that Hydrogen ICE will not going to sell cause the storage problem make it impractical. Again I say Toyota working on that, and as this is on going RnD project, they will not tell everything yet to the world.

However they are quite optimistic on Hydrogen ICE and I say as many in market believe also, it can be different traction then Hydrogen Fuell Cells. Batteries is earlier to the market, off course BEV right now have more presence in market.

Hydrogen ICE again is not EV, and many and can be said most customers also not want to left their ICE. All the thing that hinder Hydrogen ICE is their storage problem. I already put in my posts time and time again.

That's why I said this is useless and foolish debate cause you seems already set in mind Hydrogen is dead end. Many market analysis already believe Hydrogen FEV is having behind momentum then BEV. However Hydrogen ICE can be different thing.

So believe all you want that hydrogen is dead end alternative. I'm still going to watch Hydrogen ICE development. As I don't believe the game is end yet on any alternative energy. Looking on attraction from market and car anthusiast on Hydrogen ICE, I'm far from alone.