Flanker Export Thread

Boagrius

Well-Known Member
It may depend on the size of the contract, and on how many other Su-30SM contracts they have. If it's what will keep the production line open, they may see it as worth it.
If they were going to procure an Irbis equipped Flanker variant (and Russia was willing to sell it to them), would it not make sense for the Iranians to go straight for the Su-35 ala Egypt? Perhaps the Su-30 would be more affordable..?
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member

Not an online source that I usually look, and in my opinion not really dependable. However I put this as example on what choices that Iran can realistically aim in modernising their AF.

As this blog run by Indian online 'journalist', they're bit more critical toward Russian fighters perhaps influence by Indian own experiences. However my points is more to how Iran going to pay either Russian or Chinese for new fighters.

Despite all US diplomatic debacles on handling Iran, US still hold one big gun which is USD. Even if after September Russian and Chinese openly support Iranian International trade, and perhaps the EU will stay in the fences, Iran still will be hard to trade with global market without access on USD. With most of global trade still rum with USD, the market for Iran to get hard currency will still be difficult to obtain.

In such Iran will only can pay with the only currency they own, which is oil. Thus how they're going to pay the Russian ? Russia is full of oil by themselves, and I suspect they'll be very reluctant to be paid by oil. However that situation will not be the same with China. They will accept Oil for payment of their J-10C or perhaps J-15.

Thus unless Iran has other method to gain hard currency (Euro could be the choices, but I'm bit sceptical EU will provide that if US and most of Gulf Kingdoms still hard on sanctioning Iran), then Oil for Assets with China is the only choice they have.
 

HeimDefan

New Member
If they were going to procure an Irbis equipped Flanker variant (and Russia was willing to sell it to them), would it not make sense for the Iranians to go straight for the Su-35 ala Egypt? Perhaps the Su-30 would be more affordable..?
Su-35 is quite a bit more costly than Su-30. Iran operates F-14 which is tandem seat like Su-30. So Su-30 is the best choice for replacing F-14.
 

HeimDefan

New Member
Wait.....
"Iran is getting JF-17 Block 3 "
Where did you get that from? The way you write that statement is like that Iran and china already have signed a contract and that Iran will get them for sure. (Sorry for my bad English)
Iran has a number of F-5E to phase out. The only realistic replacement is JF-17 Block 3. Even if Trump loses election and the US gets rid of sanction on Iran, the fact that Gripen and Tejas both use F404 makes them unreliable for Iran. JF-17 Block 3 is the only other plane in the light fighter category. JF-17 block 3 is the only realistic option for replacing F-5E in Iran.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Iran has a number of F-5E to phase out. The only realistic replacement is JF-17 Block 3. Even if Trump loses election and the US gets rid of sanction on Iran, the fact that Gripen and Tejas both use F404 makes them unreliable for Iran. JF-17 Block 3 is the only other plane in the light fighter category. JF-17 block 3 is the only realistic option for replacing F-5E in Iran.
You logic makes sense but it's just an educated guess. Consider several other things.

1) Iran got the fighers it has as an inheritance from a previous regime, not a set of procurement decisions. It's not clear that the F-5 replacement has to be a light fighter or has to be 1 for 1.
2) Iran likely can't afford to replace it's entire fighter fleet. Older aircraft will continue to serve for quite some time, so the decision may be less about replacing what they have and more about adding what they don't have.
3) Iran has limited funds and the Su-30SM is relatively cheap. Note all of Russia's cash-strapped partners went for it, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia. (in point of fact Kazakhstan isn't doing too bad but their defense spending is limited, it's not the country but the military that's relatively cash strapped) This could be the deciding factor. Note, Myanmar also purchased the Su-30SME.
4) Iran has already shown interest in the Su-30SM, and I suspect the Su-30SME variant was aimed in part at Iran. Russia's CSTO partners get the domestic SM variant, and others get the regular MK export in whatever their chosen variation is. The only exception is the above-mentioned Myanmar, another isolated regime that wants relatively sophisticated weapons at an affordable price.

Note, it's entirely possible (likely even, in my opinion) that Iran will get the JF-17 in some version. But with presently available information I don't think we can confidently state that they will get a specific version for a specific purpose. Though if you have evidence to suggest that the Iranian military is thinking about it in those terms, please share.
 

HeimDefan

New Member
You logic makes sense but it's just an educated guess. Consider several other things.

1) Iran got the fighers it has as an inheritance from a previous regime, not a set of procurement decisions. It's not clear that the F-5 replacement has to be a light fighter or has to be 1 for 1.
2) Iran likely can't afford to replace it's entire fighter fleet. Older aircraft will continue to serve for quite some time, so the decision may be less about replacing what they have and more about adding what they don't have.
3) Iran has limited funds and the Su-30SM is relatively cheap. Note all of Russia's cash-strapped partners went for it, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia. (in point of fact Kazakhstan isn't doing too bad but their defense spending is limited, it's not the country but the military that's relatively cash strapped) This could be the deciding factor. Note, Myanmar also purchased the Su-30SME.
4) Iran has already shown interest in the Su-30SM, and I suspect the Su-30SME variant was aimed in part at Iran. Russia's CSTO partners get the domestic SM variant, and others get the regular MK export in whatever their chosen variation is. The only exception is the above-mentioned Myanmar, another isolated regime that wants relatively sophisticated weapons at an affordable price.

Note, it's entirely possible (likely even, in my opinion) that Iran will get the JF-17 in some version. But with presently available information I don't think we can confidently state that they will get a specific version for a specific purpose. Though if you have evidence to suggest that the Iranian military is thinking about it in those terms, please share.
Currently Iran has 20 odd F-14 and 20 odd F-5 to phase out. The requirement for new jets is about 80 Su-30SM and 80 JF-17 Block 3 in the hi-lo combo.

Su-30 will not only phased out F-14 in the air to air role but also Su-24 in the air to ground role.
 

oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Currently Iran has 20 odd F-14 and 20 odd F-5 to phase out. The requirement for new jets is about 80 Su-30SM and 80 JF-17 Block 3 in the hi-lo combo.

Su-30 will not only phased out F-14 in the air to air role but also Su-24 in the air to ground role.
Where do you get the figures? Eighty of each seems as good as any other wild guess, but we'd rather see a reference, or at least an outline of the way you came to that conclusion.

oldsig
 

tonnyc

Active Member
Currently Iran has 20 odd F-14 and 20 odd F-5 to phase out. The requirement for new jets is about 80 Su-30SM and 80 JF-17 Block 3 in the hi-lo combo.

Su-30 will not only phased out F-14 in the air to air role but also Su-24 in the air to ground role.
Is there a source for this? It's alright if it is in Iranian. I'd rather have a primary source in the original language than hearsay in English. With the weapon embargo expired, Iran is a significant potential market and I do want to hear what they look for in term of modern defence systems.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Linking to a factually inaccurate opinion piece does not constitute proof. You are hereby banned.
-Preceptor
That is one of the reasons why that particular poster's time on here was somewhat short. Preceptor swung the ban hammer on that one after the Moderators had their discussion and made their decision about said poster's future on here. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink. In this case the poster in question was given guidance by members, DEFPROs, and a couple of the Moderators. However such guidance was brushed aside and the poster continued on their path of ignorance and ultimate introduction to the ban hammer. The Moderators would like to thank to the forum members and DEFPROs who took the time to offer guidance to HeimDefan.
I’ve copied the above replies by Preceptor and ngatimozart from another thread to provide context to the ban.
Is there a source for this?
HeimDefan can’t reply anymore as he has been permanently banned. We really can’t expect much from him as in another post he claimed he saw info from a bookstore — not even from a specific book or periodical.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Belarus plans to get four more Su-30SM.


And this article tells about a contract from Algeria.
Last year (and even before) there were reports that Algeria ordered large amounts of Su-34 and Su-35, but eventually nothing happened, so there is a big chance that the Su-57 procurement also ends up in nothing.
Besides that the Su-57 is not yet operational with the Russian Airforce as far as i know, so i am a bit sceptical.

"Russia's Sputnik reports that the Algerian government recently signed a final contract for fourteen Su-57 stealth fighters (NATO code-name Felon).

Already one year back, in December 2019, MENA Defense reported that Algeria would become the first export customer for the Sukhoi Su-57 and the Sukhoi Su-34. According to various media outlets the initial agreement was signed in 2019. The final contract for the Su-57 is valued at almost USD 2 billion."
 
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