Falklands tensions

[ngatimozart]

The grizzly bear in the room is the US. Since 1823 the Monroe Doctrine has been central to US policy. The doctrine states that the US will resist any foreign intervention in the political affairs of the Americas with the Americas being North and South America along with the Caribbean. Over the years the policy has waxed and waned in favour but never gone away. I don't know what the state of it is at the moment but the US have been pretty vocal about non South American, North American or Caribbean support for Venezuela.

 

[swerve]

The Monroe Doctrine as originally formulated was a declaration of US opposition to European countries attempting to establish new colonies in the Americas or reconquer former colonies.

The USA has no more right to veto Chinese assistance to Argentina than China has to annex the waters of the South China Sea, & China & Argentina would be very quick to point out the hypocrisy of any such attempted veto. It would amount to a declaration that US policy overrides Argentinean sovereignty, which is exactly what the USA objects to in Russian demands for vetos on NATO assistance to former Soviet republics.

It would be politically rather difficult for Biden to say that Argentina is subject to the USA, & would tend to drive Argentina into China's arms.

 

[Stampede]

The Monroe Doctrine as originally formulated was a declaration of US opposition to European countries attempting to establish new colonies in the Americas or reconquer former colonies.

The USA has no more right to veto Chinese assistance to Argentina than China has to annex the waters of the South China Sea, & China & Argentina would be very quick to point out the hypocrisy of any such attempted veto. It would amount to a declaration that US policy overrides Argentinean sovereignty, which is exactly what the USA objects to in Russian demands for vetos on NATO assistance to former Soviet republics.

It would be politically rather difficult for Biden to say that Argentina is subject to the USA, & would tend to drive Argentina into China's arms.

Don't disagree.
Will the China / Argentina relationship amount to anything; who knows, It's still early days.
Both nations have the right to follow their own paths.
That said,the relationship may have consequences for the region down the track.

As its a Falklands thread, the UK will logically have an interest in any developments.

Regards S

 

[Ananda]

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/argentinas-milei-battles-falling-ratings-by-reviving-claim-to-the-falklands-40b9c3b4

It is not a secret that Argentina Regime will use Falkland issue whenever they face problem, Economically, Politically and Popularity, just like Milei facing right now. Seems he also embolded with his buddy-buddy relationship with Netanyahu and Trump (with both of them also facing huge declining approval rating).

However how he is going to back it up ? Is he delusional to believe any of those two will back him up against UK militarily or economically ? At least Galtieri have relatively capable Armed Forces. Milei's armed forces now it's less and below the shadow of Galtieri's 1982 Armed Forces.

UK MinDef seems believe there's no need at this moment to augment Forces in Falkland. Yes RN 2026 is also not at the relative level of 1982 RN numerically and capacity. Still it is still capable to send task force (eventough not in level of 1982) to Falkland. While Argentina Milei's navy will be hard press to even put a platoon of fully armed marines across.

I just wondering on any scenario that make this Milei can even back his tough rhetoric. Perhaps this is what any head of administration to do, when their rating goes downhill.

 

[koxinga]

It is a standard Argentinian national positon regardless of which party and usually rhetoric and posturing for domestic consumption. Most people just roll their eyes and move on to next other thing.

 

[Ananda]

Looking to Argentinian forums and online chatter, seems this tough rhetorics being supported by Milei's supporters wholeheart. Eventough some Argentinians remind them also, it is irational on present time.

Compare to 1982, relatively economics and militarily, Milei is in much worse situation then Galtieri's. Still the supporters act like MAGA on believing Trump's antics. So I just wondering what kimd of scenario's that even illogical Milei's try to sell.

 

[koxinga]

He has his eyes on the 2027 election and his ratings isn't doing well.

Argentina's Milei leads 2027 polls as economic discontent grows - UPI.com

Argentina's government expressed confidence President Javier Milei can secure a second term with a first-round victory in next year's voting.

www.upi.com

Milei empowers Argentina to bar or deport foreigners over hateful remarks about the country

Argentine President Javier Milei has signed an emergency decree allowing the government to deny entry to or expel foreigners who incite discrimination or violence against Argentines.

apnews.com

 

[Stampede]

Worked with an Argentinian for some time in Melbourne .
Nice, gentle and funny chap who was not at all political.
When he handed in his notice to move to Europe I thought I’d finally ask him about the whole Falkland / Malvinas situation.
Well blow me down , he was off and I was left in no doubt of his opinion those Islands belonged to Argentina.!!!!!!!!
I quietly acknowledged his response.
I think for many in that part of the world it’s a big thing.
Living in Melbourne however it all seems a world away in distance and a most perplexing fixation.


Cheers S

 

[Ananda]

Argentina calls for Hong Kong-style handover of Falklands

President Milei argues agreement can be made with Britain, which he calls a country ‘in decline’, to transfer sovereignty of islands

www.thetimes.com

No doubt Malvinas issue is very sensitive to an Argentinian. I haven't work with Argentinian, as in my previous organisation the South America desk mostly Brazilian and Chilean as their market are the most active ones in South America. However talking to them on Malvinas/Falkland effect for average Argentinian, they simply said loosing the Falkland war is the shame that they keep bring even to their child. Only regaining Malvinas back is the way to erase that shame.

Something that every politician in Argentina knows. Milei must have copied from his buddies Netanyahu and Trump to play overeach antics for domestic and international audiences. However Milei does not have anything close as Netanyahu let alone Trump to back it up their antics.

This demand on Hong Kong style hand over, means he believe that Argentina have clout and power similar to China to negotiate and press UK on that direction. He just make Himself and Argentina a laughing stock, and only harm future Argentina chances.

 

[Stampede]

Argentina calls for Hong Kong-style handover of Falklands

President Milei argues agreement can be made with Britain, which he calls a country ‘in decline’, to transfer sovereignty of islands

www.thetimes.com

No doubt Malvinas issue is very sensitive to an Argentinian. I haven't work with Argentinian, as in my previous organisation the South America desk mostly Brazilian and Chilean as their market are the most active ones in South America. However talking to them on Malvinas/Falkland effect for average Argentinian, they simply said loosing the Falkland war is the shame that they keep bring even to their child. Only regaining Malvinas back is the way to erase that shame.

Something that every politician in Argentina knows. Milei must have copied from his buddies Netanyahu and Trump to play overeach antics for domestic and international audiences. However Milei does not have anything close as Netanyahu let alone Trump to back it up their antics.

This demand on Hong Kong style hand over, means he believe that Argentina have clout and power similar to China to negotiate and press UK on that direction. He just make Himself and Argentina a laughing stock, and only harm future Argentina chances.

Yes no doubt it’s for domestic consumption.

Cheers S