Falklands tensions

[Dodger67]

Australia and New Zealand don't really have any use for a cable to the Falklands, they are already well connected on multiple routes, other than SE Asia there are links to Guam, Japan and Hawaii as well as direct to North America.

Wiring the Falklands without touching Argentina would be difficult. I don't see how a route to the Pacific could be viable unless it is a real "island hopper" Starting in New Zealand and connecting practically every island country in the South Pacific from Fiji to Easter Island then around the Horn to the Falklands. Even then it's economic viability is far from secure. Quite frankly a Falklands to South Africa link makes more (but not much more) sense.

A satellite link is a lot easier, more scalable and much more difficult to disrupt by hostile action.

 

[Cadredave]

I haven’t got the actual plans, but looking at the submarine cable network there appears to be no cable running from NZ to the South Americas. Buy running a cable from NZ to the Falklands then up to Saint Helena then into Europe, Australia can bypass possible trouble spots in the South China Seas, Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Developing fibre optic cables into the Falkland’s Islands provide NZ/AU with secure friendly ports with a country we have traditional depended upon, it can only strength ties between the UK and NZ/AU plus also helping with the security of the Falkland Islander with secure communications with UK.

NZ has no need for a cable to go via South America, Australia already by passes likely trouble spots by going thru NZ direct to USA a private consortium is in the process of laying a second High speed cable to be ready by June 2014.

At 12,950km going direct to California the projected cost is in the vincinity of $300mil, which to me is worth the capital outlay I fail to understand your argument to go thru the Falklands no business in the world would risk that amount of money for no possible gain how is this going to benefit NZ & Aussie by this proposed route via the Faklands?.

I think you underestimate the distances between NZ & the rest of the world.

CD

 

[Adam Neira]

Sovereignty

The argument that Argentinean rights to the islands are valid based on visitation from Tierra Del Fuegans prior to 1700 is specious, as the modern nation state did not exist then. The islands were barren outcrops for millennia and it was only with European settlement that any prosperity came to the place. The existing residents also want to remain under the Union Jack so their wishes should be respected. It is true that on a map the islands are closer to the Argentinean mainland than Britain, but distance does not discount sovereignty, witness New Caledonia, Faroe Islands, Dutch Antilles etc. It is however true that the Falkland Islanders should become friends with their closest neighbors, and vica versa.

Please note everyone...

Military conflict in the South Atlantic must be avoided.

 

[swerve]

Tierra del Fuegans before 1700? I've never heard of that one. Certainly, if that claim is being made, it's specious, but if it is being made, it's not the basis of the Argentinean claim.

The official grounds for the claim are firstly, that the islands were part of the Spanish viceroyalty of Rio de La Plata, settled by Spain & administered from Buenos Aires, & that Argentina inherited them at independence. This claim has a sound legal & factual basis. Secondly, that there was an Argentinean settlement after independence, which was illegally removed by American & British action. This claim is weaker, because the settlement was of uncertain status (it's complicated), & some of the settlers appear to have been content to stay on under British rule, but it cannot be dismissed out of hand. Thirdly, proximity. This is very weak indeed: it generally applies only to uninhabited islands which nobody else has made good a claim to, & the Falklands are inhabited, & the UK has made good a claim to them.

However, the UK has stronger grounds than Argentina, having 149 years of uninterrupted occupation & settlement, during most of which its possession was not disputed, & 179 years in total of occupation & settlement, & the desire of the population of the islands to retain their current association with the UK.

 

[exPrivate]

Poor Christina remained isolated with only Evo Morales at hand at the Summit of the Americas.
Argentina storms out of Americas summit - Americas - Al Jazeera English
Now Little Dave can safely ride his bycicle... :lol2

 

[RobWilliams]

Poor Christina remained isolated with only Evo Morales at hand at the Summit of the Americas.
Argentina storms out of Americas summit - Americas - Al Jazeera English
Now Little Dave can safely ride his bycicle... :lol2

I was just reading that on MercoPress, funny stuff.

“We understand she was very, very angry that other leaders didn't even mention the dispute over the Islands with the UK”, and furthermore she was overheard saying, “This is pointless. Why did I even come here?'”

The reason why it made me laugh so is because it's exactly the same behaviour of a small child, it doesn't get what it wants and proceeds to throw its toys out of the pram.

It seems like other leaders - rightfully so - had other more pressing matters to discuss.

 

[exPrivate]

It is even more funny that according to Hector Timermann everything is OK!
Summit balance 'very positive,' Timerman assures - BuenosAiresHerald.com
As usually they`ve made a pretty mess of it! :dance2

 

[RobWilliams]

As i'm sure most people are aware, Argentina is planning on passing a draft bill to congress, "The draft bill contemplates the expropriation of YPF, Argentina's biggest company, with the Argentine State holding 51% stake of the 57.43% that Spanish Repsol controls since 1999."

Quote from MercoPress used as I can't really get my head around it, was always naff at economics.

Anyway, the repercussions of this is a severely damaged Argentina/Spain relationship

During conversations with Spanish reporters, the minister emphasized his concerns as far as “Argentina’s decision could mean a break-up in its long-time good relationship with Spain”, and added, “The damage to Argentina can be massive as its decision can lead to the no access to international credit and/or loans.”

García Margallo also stated that the Spanish government is “already working in order to obtain the collaboration of the Unites States, and friend-governments within the European Union, and G-20.”

The move also provoked a statement from the Mexican President saying "nobody in its right mind invests in countries that expropriates".

There's talk of Spain urging the EU for economic sanctions against Argentina because of this. It certainly looks like this whole scenario is going to blow up in Kirchners face, at the very least this'll decrease companies worries (if they exist) on investing in Falklands Oil.

There was a recent buzz about the Argentinian foreign ministry getting a letter from BP saying it's not interested in developing Falklands oil, now or in the future. They don't seem deterred by the fact that BP wasn't among the 6 companies who in January approached Rockhopper for a deal

-“Argentina has just shot itself in the foot†warns Spain Foreign minister — MercoPress
-Hague expresses deep concern over the YPF case and promises support for Spain — MercoPress
-Mexico appeals to CFK: nobody in its right mind invests in countries that expropriates — MercoPress

 

[RobWilliams]

The future looks bright for Falklands Oil & Gas

British oil strike off the Falkland Islands | The Sun |News|Politics

A HUGE oil discovery has been made in the Falklands, sources claimed last night.

The find, by a British-backed company, could contain up to a BILLION barrels of “black gold” an insider revealed.

The strike, off the Falklands’ southern coast, was made by oil explorer Borders and Southern.

It has been tight-lipped about the discovery — but shares have soared on growing rumours. Borders was unavailable for comment last night but Foreign Office officials refused to deny the news.

Although this is the Sun and as of yet i haven't seen anything in the Times/Telegraph/FT (those are the papers i generally look to for relatively reliable sources) so i wouldn't be prepared to say 100% that all the details are accurate, but if it is, then that's an astonishing find.

I suppose if it was a false story then the Foreign Office would have denied it? I mean probably not the details but if there wasn't a major oil strike then surely the government would have dismissed the roumers?

 

[StobieWan]

With only one source, and that being the Sun, I'm not hopeful it's accurate.

The various government departments may spring into life Monday but I suspect they'll just let this one go by to be honest.

 

[RobWilliams]

With only one source, and that being the Sun, I'm not hopeful it's accurate.

The various government departments may spring into life Monday but I suspect they'll just let this one go by to be honest.

I agree.

Although the find could explain the sudden jump in share price (looking at an article from the Independant, the price jump was from 38.5p to 108p), so that does assume that something reasonably drastic has happened.

Looking at other stories, it appears that the last couple of days people have been questioning why S&Bs shares have done what they have.

I'm going to wait until Monday/Tuesday to see if anything gets published, but to me this sort of story isn't something you could make up is it? I will post more reliable sources if/when they arise.

side note: interesting Telegraph article

Falklands oil: who's drilling where - Telegraph

Shows geographically which oil companies are drilling in each location.

 

[Neutral Zone]

It would be really funny if Repsol starting drilling for oil of the Falklands, Chrissie would probably have a coronary!

 

[sgtgunn]

I apologize if I'm going over old ground here, but I'm trying to wrap my mind around this.

The Falklands/Malvinas (originally) had no indigenous inhabitants.

While it changed hands a number of times before 1833 it has been continously inhabited by people of British descent and having some sort of political connection with the United Kingdom since then (179 years).

The Falkland Islanders are currently British Citizens and have continously expressed thier desire to remain politically affilated with the United Kingdom.

The UN Charter, International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights all state that all peoples have the right of self determination. Both the UK and Argentina are (to the best of my knowledge)signatories to the above documents.

The Falklanders are currently "British", have been "British" for almost two centuries, and pretty clearly want to remain "British".

IMHO based on the facts, Argentina's claims to soverignity are patently (and embarrsingly) ridiciulous.

It would be like the US demanding Bermuda from the UK, or Canada demanding Sainte Pierre from France or Mexico demanding Texas from the US.

Especially odd is the way that Argentina is throwing around worlds like "colonialism" since they themselves are originally the colonists of a European power (90% of Argentinians are of European descent) who "colonized" the original aborginal inhabitants of Argentina (i.e. killed them and stole thier land). Damning the UK for thier "colonialism" is almost grotesquely hypocritical.

I'm no international affairs expert, but it sounds like a classic case of a leader trying to distract the people at home from thier real problems (and the failings of thier own government).

Hmmm....domestic problems? Remember the Malavinas!!! (trans. "look, something shiny! up here!").

I'm neither British or Argentine (and I have been to both countries, and like both countries) so I don't have a dog in this fight. It just offends my common sense.

Adrian

 

[StobieWan]

Seems a fair summary - I'm British myself and have no burning urge to be at odds with Argentina, and yes, I share your belief that this is nationalist fervour being used to distract from an economy that may be teetering on the edge of implosion (they have good economic growth over recent years but their inflation numbers are deeply suspect, they have defaulted on all debts in recent history, are now in the spotlight for nationalising a company which was in the main owned by Argentina's largest foreign investor.

It's not good.

 

[Todjaeger]

Seems a fair summary - I'm British myself and have no burning urge to be at odds with Argentina, and yes, I share your belief that this is nationalist fervour being used to distract from an economy that may be teetering on the edge of implosion (they have good economic growth over recent years but their inflation numbers are deeply suspect, they have defaulted on all debts in recent history, are now in the spotlight for nationalising a company which was in the main owned by Argentina's largest foreign investor.

It's not good.

I too get the feeling that much of the recent noise in Argentina, apart from being the 30th anniversary, has to do with attempts by the Government to stave off concerns about the domestic & economic situation within Argentina.

Recently the US suspended duty-free access to a number of Argentinian exports, adding Argentina to a small list of other countries (including Iran, N. Korea, and either Sudan or Somalia IIRC) due to Argentina's refusal to pay a $300+ mil. settlement arbitrated by the World Bank to two US companies. There has further been a complaint put before the WTO by the US, EU and several other nations about obstacles which Argentina puts in the way of importing goods to Argentina.

Between these things, as well as the potential for Argentina's economic bubble to burst (Gov't is subsidizing fuel so that fuel in Argentina costs about half what it does in nearby Brazil...) and the potential for Gov't deliberately downplaying or under-reporting inflation, it does seem like the current government wants to have something to distract the populace with.

Also, a minor correction about the demographic composition of the Falkland Islanders. Yes, at this point most of them have at least an element of British ethnicity, but the islands also had Scandanavian and other European settlers from ships crews and shipwreck survivors, etc.

-Cheers

 

[swerve]

Between these things, as well as the potential for Argentina's economic bubble to burst (Gov't is subsidizing fuel so that fuel in Argentina costs about half what it does in nearby Brazil...) and the potential for Gov't deliberately downplaying or under-reporting inflation, it does seem like the current government wants to have something to distract the populace with.

Also, a minor correction about the demographic composition of the Falkland Islanders. Yes, at this point most of them have at least an element of British ethnicity, but the islands also had Scandanavian and other European settlers from ships crews and shipwreck survivors, etc.

-Cheers

1. Argentina doesn't have an economic bubble. It has a basically sound economy, with excellent external conditions, being ruined by government mismanagement. For example, Argentina has very large oil & gas reserves, & a well-developed oil & gas industry which until recently produced an exportable surplus. But instead of encouraging it, or even just letting it get on with business, the government has imposed price caps which make it uneconomic to invest, resulting in declining production, & necessitating imports, which have to be subsidised to allow them to be sold at the capped price. This isn't the only example.

2. Yes, the Falkland islanders are mixed. There were a few people of various origins who'd arrived from Argentina before the RN assumed control in 1833. Some left, but not all. Among those who stayed were two black women (ex-slaves) from Argentina, one of who lived until 1871, & their children. Gauchos from Argentina & Uruguay were subsequently recruited to work on sheep farms, & some stayed. Transient whalers & sealers doubtless left some genes behind, & a few jumped ship & stayed.

 

[Todjaeger]

1. Argentina doesn't have an economic bubble. It has a basically sound economy, with excellent external conditions, being ruined by government mismanagement. For example, Argentina has very large oil & gas reserves, & a well-developed oil & gas industry which until recently produced an exportable surplus. But instead of encouraging it, or even just letting it get on with business, the government has imposed price caps which make it uneconomic to invest, resulting in declining production, & necessitating imports, which have to be subsidised to allow them to be sold at the capped price. This isn't the only example.

From memory, and I admit I might not have this quite right, but part of the issue which led to the US de-listing Argentina from being able to export some (thousands of IIRC) goods to the US duty free, was that the Argentinian government was only willing to pay the US companies with investment assets in Argentina. Effectively keeping the money within Argentina.

A similar situation seems to exist with companies which wish to import things to Argentina, where in order to do so, they also need to export an equivalent value of goods from Argentina. IIRC there is a BMW car dealer in Argentina that also exports rice as a result...

When you have these sorts of activities going on, plus government subsidies of fuel keeping the costs at roughly half the global market rate, and a commerce secretary who has apparently threatened economists with fines and/or jail time if they inflation at higher than the 'official' rate... That does sort of leave one wondering just how stable and sustainable a nation's economy is.

-Cheers

 

[swerve]

All these things are the result of government mismanagement, such as that I described above, which hobbles an oil & gas sector which should be thriving - and was, before the Kirchners started screwing it up.

Agricultural exports are doing well, & mostly without the sort of silliness you describe (China is now a very large customer), but this is despite the government, which to finance its mad subsidies, tried to tax food exports so heavily that it would have priced Argentina out of international markets. Completely crazy, but only stopped when farmers more or less went on strike, & the government panicked & gave in.

Given semi-rational economic policies (i.e. the government not actively trying to destroy the economy), Argentina would be prospering mightily. It produces lots of things the world wants, & has industries able & willing to produce & export more, if only the government would allow them.

I fear Argentina is heading for an economic collapse, but it's not because of unsound fundamentals, but because of political sabotage. It's not that Christina et al are deliberately trying to destroy the economy, just that they have no understanding of it, & constantly adopt policies meant to achieve a short-term political aim & which are economically destructive.

 

[Kosme]

All these things are the result of government mismanagement, such as that I described above, which hobbles an oil & gas sector which should be thriving - and was, before the Kirchners started screwing it up.

Agricultural exports are doing well, & mostly without the sort of silliness you describe (China is now a very large customer), but this is despite the government, which to finance its mad subsidies, tried to tax food exports so heavily that it would have priced Argentina out of international markets. Completely crazy, but only stopped when farmers more or less went on strike, & the government panicked & gave in.

Given semi-rational economic policies (i.e. the government not actively trying to destroy the economy), Argentina would be prospering mightily. It produces lots of things the world wants, & has industries able & willing to produce & export more, if only the government would allow them.

I fear Argentina is heading for an economic collapse, but it's not because of unsound fundamentals, but because of political sabotage. It's not that Christina et al are deliberately trying to destroy the economy, just that they have no understanding of it, & constantly adopt policies meant to achieve a short-term political aim & which are economically destructive.

Hi, I'm fron Argentina ... I wan't to say i'm really impressed by how much you know about the economic situation over here. If only the common people knew as much we would have a real president and not this vieja pelotuda who couldn't even finish law school.
I can only hope things will be better after next elections ... We could be like Brazil

 

[CheeZe]

It occurs to me (and I've not seen any recent news articles on this matter) that the Falklands issue has once again died down and lost impetus. Or have news agencies simply moved onto other issues while this continues to play out in the backrooms?