F/A-22: To Fly High or Get its Wings Clipped

Tasman

Ship Watcher
Verified Defense Pro
Answer me this.

How many weapons has the JSF carried, let alone delivered, let alone successfully employed to take out a target?


:)
With all due respect, Occum, I think this is a real red herring. Considering that you suggested earlier that Aussie Digger was posting red herrings I think this is a bit rich, apart from being, IMHO, a ridiculous question.

Obviously we all know that the JSF is in the early stages of development and weapons trials and use are some way off. You could ask the same question, and get the same answer, if you were comparing the weapons delivery capability of the JSF with a P51 Mustang!

You are also the one who suggested to other posters that they should confine their arguments to cost issues yet you continue to discuss capability. Mind you, I can't see how you can sensibly compare the costs of the F-22 and the F-35 without discussing capability. You can't logically compare costs with out considering what you get for your dollar.


Cheers
 

Occum

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Response to Tasman Post #529

On your point of 'cost issue', you are quite right - my bad for poorly wording the start of the post. What Occum meant to say was this is about "Aussie JSF to outcost F-22s" and did not mean to imply the discussion should be limited to just cost. Was reacting to some of the assertions that continue to be made that are not supported by fact or data. The main thrust of that post can be seen in the plea -

......could you please keep your comments, particularly claims and assertions, to things in which you have some level of competence. From what has been posted in your #497 and previous, this does not include anything to do with aircraft performance, handling qualities or military flying, in general.
Back on the Aussie JSF vs F-22 issue, again you are right that capability has got to be in the debate - as does risk, particularly the JSF program risks as well as the single points of failure risks in the current plans of Defence.

What is of considerable concern is that some posters here choose to ignore the obvious, including what is and isn't possible according to the laws of physics, engineering, tactical and strategic planning, commerce and just plain common sense, while believing the spin from the Department and government as some sort of apopalyptic gospel according to Angus or John or Brendan.

There is a plethora of examples where the spin is at odds with the laws of physics, engineering, tactical and strategic planning and commerce. The most recent example of a breach of the laws of common sense is -

The Minister claims that the SH is stealthy. This is what he has said in various forums, including recent TV interviews. He then goes on to say that the F-22 loses its stealth - is not stealthy - when weapons are carried externally. Now, the SH can only carry stores externally. Go figure!

If you wish to find out more on this, take a look at the related posts on the five per cent thread, particularly the RCS scale that has been provided. If you think the SH is in the blue part of this scale - The Stealthy Zone - then there is this 75 year old bridge that you will most likely be interested in buying.

We will likely see some more of this 'sermon from the Mount' on tomorrow's Sunday Program when the Top Gun Goose is interviewed by Laurie Oakes.

As to the questions that were asked re the JSF and its capabilities being 'red herrings', we will have to agree to disagree on this one, unless, of course you are prepared to accept the following and correct your statement.

Firstly, 'red herrings' are defined "as something being a diversion or distraction from the original ojective".

See -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_herring

The questions are directly applicable to the debate, the answers to which go directly to the level of risk with which the JSF Program is currently burdened. It is not possible to quantify such risks without answering such questions. This appears to be something JSF apparatchiks are either unable or afraid to do because, like many of the senior officials in Defence and government, they have nailed their colours to the JSF mast and can't bring themselves to even think that maybe, just maybe, this could have been a mistake.

Cheers,


:)
 

ELP

New Member
The reason for JSF being selected has little to do with it's combat ability ( what ever that is ) and more to do with the fact that if everything goes well, Australian industry will have the potential to provide $9 billion dollars in goods and services to the J$F program. ;)
 

old faithful

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The reason for JSF being selected has little to do with it's combat ability ( what ever that is ) and more to do with the fact that if everything goes well, Australian industry will have the potential to provide $9 billion dollars in goods and services to the J$F program. ;)
That is exactly the way i see it to, and that is ,the secret 5%!
 

Occum

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Lies, Damn Lies, and Marketing Per Centages

That is exactly the way i see it to, and that is ,the secret 5%!
$9bn bonanza in F-35 deal: The Australian, 23 Mar 07 - THE Australian aerospace industry stands to reap about $9 billion from its involvement in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program over the next three decades, according to the plane's US developer, Lockheed Martin.

Mr Abhay Paranjape said Lockheed had laid out a plan defining when it would start procuring components, how many it would need and the estimated value of the work. He said $9 billion was a rounded total number of all the opportunities and values available to Australia.
The 100 JSF aircraft proposed for Australia is 3.2% of the currently intended build of 3,173 which is presently expected to cost around US$230.76 billion all up (not including the RDT&E).

1. Assuming Abhay Paranjape is talking in US dollars, then US$9 is closer to 4%. Not a bad deal if you can get it. Wonder what the other seven partner nations are being promised and whether the sum of the promised parts exceeds the whole? Bit like the old 'system of systems' adage in reverse, really, isn't it? Also, what happens when the primary suppliers are all able to meet their quotas?

2. Nine billion over 30 years works out to an average of $300 million per year. This is the sum of the gross values of the possible sums which, in the fullness of time, might materialise into contracts. Therefore, earnings at, say, 15% EBIT would be around $45 million per annum. Maybe an accountant type out there could do the NPV on this with empirically based estimates on risk/return ratios for companies making the up front investment now in plant, equipment, processes, standards, approvals and marketing.

3. Isn't this the same mob that said if we invested US$150 million into the SDD MOU, Australia stood to get over US$800 million in contracts and be positioned for billions from the production. This must be the billions. On the SDD front, to date, contracts with a gross worth of $100 million (sometimes stated as Australian dollars, other times as US dollars) have either been awarded or have letters of intent or have been discussed in earnest. If all crystallise, that would be earnings of about $15 million at a somewhat generous EBIT of 15%. Wouldn't this be what is called in the trade 'a loss/lead of enormous proportions' and, in Sir Humphrey Appleby speak, "courageous". Maybe that is why former Defence Secretary Barrett was not overly interested in the JSF SDD Proposal and you can see what happened to him and Jonesy.


:rolleyes:
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
What is of considerable concern is that some posters here choose to ignore the obvious, including what is and isn't possible according to the laws of physics, engineering, tactical and strategic planning, commerce and just plain common sense, while believing the spin from the Department and government as some sort of apopalyptic gospel according to Angus or John or Brendan.

There is a plethora of examples where the spin is at odds with the laws of physics, engineering, tactical and strategic planning and commerce. The most recent example of a breach of the laws of common sense is -

The Minister claims that the SH is stealthy. This is what he has said in various forums, including recent TV interviews. He then goes on to say that the F-22 loses its stealth - is not stealthy - when weapons are carried externally. Now, the SH can only carry stores externally. Go figure!
Sure nelson is a d*ckhead. He wouldn't know a strike fighter from his left elbow. The letters RCS probably mean real cricket scores to him. But that doesent mean that anyone who supports the JSF program is the same, which is what you implied. And an example of some posts that ignore the laws of phisics is???

The questions are directly applicable to the debate, the answers to which go directly to the level of risk with which the JSF Program is currently burdened. It is not possible to quantify such risks without answering such questions. This appears to be something JSF apparatchiks are either unable or afraid to do because, like many of the senior officials in Defence and government, they have nailed their colours to the JSF mast and can't bring themselves to even think that maybe, just maybe, this could have been a mistake.
I am a supporter of the JSF program, but if it truely is a bad choice for the RAAF then I would have no problem changing my mind. However i am yet to be convinced by all the gloom and doom being prophisised by the pro F22 camp. I see the F35 as a very capable aircraft, without any equal apart from the F22. You statted in an earlier post that without the "brilliant" performance of the F22 in the air dominance roll Australia would become a second or third rate power in the region. One simple question WHY??? Name a single platform, appart from the F22, that would even come close to the F35 in air to air combat. I cant see one now or in the forseable future. The same argument you are puting foreward now could be made for the aquisition of 4th generation fighters. If so then the tested, less risky and more capable as an air domminance fighter the F15 should have been the only choice for the RAAF instead of the F18. Did the choice of the more versatile and cheaper bug relegate us to the relms of oblivion as you sujest for the F35 vs F22??? So if the F35 will really be so disasterous for the RAAF why dont you convince me. If you outline a decent and comprehensive plan for an alternative that is better and affordable, then i'm all ears. If not then stop preaching the evils of the JSF if your not going to outline them.
 

Markus40

New Member
Can you explain why the Australian government is spending 30Billion AUD on the JSF and you have just said that the reason for the JSF being selected has little to do with its combat ability. That means that the Australian military brass are a pack of dunder heads.!!!!!!!

Yes like any industry the Australian economy will have invested 9 Billlion and probably more in fact into the JSF, so what is the news in this?:confused: .



The reason for JSF being selected has little to do with it's combat ability ( what ever that is ) and more to do with the fact that if everything goes well, Australian industry will have the potential to provide $9 billion dollars in goods and services to the J$F program. ;)
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Not my logic. Sounds more like that of a physics major!
So you want Australia to buy the proven F-22 instead of the hypothetical F-35. Yet I counter your argument with how many wars has the F-22 won? How many weapons has it delivered in anger in the region? Is not the F-22 also untested? Wouldn't the most tested aircraft be the best for Australia, and thus the F-18 and the F-111 should be the only aircraft concidered and thus a circular argument?

It seems you will conveniently claim the F-22 as a absolutely robust platform, yet even acknowledge that many muntions we would want to use have never been fired from it and are still undergoing development. It has not fired in situtations likely to be called apon. As far as risk go, adapting the F-22 for Australia seems to have more risk than purchasing the F-35.

Now you claim the principal american contractors are laughing all the way to the bank! Are not these many of the same contractors being used on the F-22? Perhaps we should buy soviet era equipment and fight capitalisim?

Now why is that, pray tell? Is there some limitation in the software or in the systems which says, "Nah! Not allowed to do that for Australia".
Well judging from some recent software bugs that may be exactly it. Certainly the USA would be highly protective of the technologies and specifics of the F-22 including source code and technical particulars which could be identified as weaknesses, or copied and adopted. Not to mention the USA would be forced to choose between all of its "very close allies" for F-22 approval.


Don't need to and why would you want to? Don't see this requirement in any of the strategic guidance of the Government or in any of the stated strategic needs of the DoD. Do you know something that no-one else seems to know?
Sometimes we have to ignore the pink elephant in the room. F-35B's off the LHD are indeed that pink elephant. It is a entirely feasable plan which Spain for one intends to follow. Certainly far more realisitic than evolved F-111. It seems to find much favour with members in these forums, so take that as you see it. Australia did see purpose in having carriers previously.

The limitation is the size of the weapons bay (principally the length), not weight. The hardpoints are stressed for far more.
Regardless, if it can't fit a 2,000lb. It can't fit a 2,000lb. Unless you have some secret chemistry to increase the density of the explosive, in that case do tell.

Interesting to observe that back in 2000/01 when it looked like the JSF CTOL would likely only carry 1,000 lb stores internally, the RAAF were using the contra argument against retaining the F-111 with its large stores weight carriage capability (more than 2,000 lb stores) because, with the high precision, smaller stores that were under development, the maximum weight store they would need to carry was the 1,000 lb-ers.
Indeed very interesting. The JSF F-35B is also limited to 1,000Lb devices. But the fact the F-35A can handle 2,000 lb class weapons is still in its favour. External weapons are falling out of favour, after all if you didn't need stealth just drive in the hornets.

Curious qualifications statement - particularly the 'merely'. Are you suggesting physics is somehow a lesser science?
Well, you origionally asked Just out of interest, what are your qualifications and experience in matters of an aerospace nature? . My qualifications are merely broadly physics. I have done some work with aerodynamics, materials, and have studied several aerospace subjects. I am not a expert in this field, but that is not to say I am ignorant. You were asking in terms of specific qualifications and experience in relation to aerospace. My qualifications relate directly to physics and indirectly to aerospace. So yes, in that context, my physics is lesser than a specific qualification and experience in aerospace.

Answering the question is physics a lesser science? Well physics is a broader subject than the specific topic you listed. However broader does not mean inferior, many physicists are highly adaptable and are able to effectively work in other related fields. But this is getting just a tad off topic.

Then why is the present government prepared to spend over A$30 Bn on air combat capabilities with such an emphasis on dealing with air borne threats using networking with AEW&Cs and the like? Look at the threat scenarios they are basing their planning on. The majority are air threats which might just have something to do with the air-sea gap, don't you think?
Perhaps I haven't been clear. I do belive Australia needs a credible airforce. I certainly believe we can make one involving the F-35. I don't belive the F-22 should be high on the Australian aquisition list ahead of more pressing aquisitions. I do think its too much airplane, not entirely suited to our needs, is too costly. But based apon historic fact, proven evidence, which seems highly important to you and your F-22, Australia could infact get no combat aircraft and be perfectly safe. I make this statement to highlight its limitations.

Proven hardware is not always the best. Nor is unproven always the worse. We have to involve some sort of risk management in these sort of dealings.


Being physics qualified, I assume you would be familiar with the scientific method. Can you prove this statement about 'strike aircraft dressing' and explain why, in the process, the F-22 has four internal weapon bays and 4 x 5,000 lb rated external hard points plus the provision for an EOTS plus provision for sideways looking antennas plus ..... ?
Fitted for but not with. Yes, maybe the americans should have gone through with the FB-22 project. It would have resulted in effectively a larger F-35. Then you would have your strike aircraft. External hardpoints would lose most of the F-22 advantages in speed, stealth, range and manouverability. So now we are back at stage one.

In this environment, not being 'mind blowing brilliant' is what will get people killed and, more over, from a defensive posture perspective, make Australia a second or third rate power in the region.
How does 100 F-35 make Australia a third rate power in the region? Curious? I would have thought ~75 F-35A's and ~25 F-35B's would have made Australia one of the most powerful nations in defence measures. We are infact upgrading our capability and targeting for a 1:1 replacement of existing aircraft puts us in a very exclusive club.

Of course, you will not reply to my post, and I will not reply to yours. This conversation seems to be repeating itself. I think you have some interesting points, but you aren't seeing the big picture. Government seems to agree with me and disagree with you. Many other countries also disagree with you.

So I will quite happily sit out here, with Denmark, UK, Norway, Italy, Canada, the dutch, Spain, Turkey, the USA, the main contractors and the Australian government and the many board members here all alone. We will all look into the fishbowl of APA zealots and yourself who have truely found the righteous path in the form of the F-22 and try to work out how we all got it so very wrong and how easily each of our pathetic airforces will fail when tasked with defence.

Tschüs.
 
A

Aussie Digger

Guest
Off topic I know but related to the F-22 issue and it's availability internationally...

Courtesy of JDW...

Japan narrows next-generation fighter requirement choice

By Jon Grevatt
Jane's Asia-Pacific Industry Reporter

Japanese Ministry of Defence (MoD) officials have decided to continue formal interest in three aircraft to meet its F-X next-generation fighter requirements - the Eurofighter Typhoon, and Boeing's F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and F-15E Strike Eagle - although a plan to lobby Washington to acquire Lockheed Martin's F-22 has not been ruled out.

A source at the Japanese MoD said: "Officials from the Ministry of Defence went to the US and Europe from 25 February to 15 March and have decided on three aircraft that could meet Japan's next-generation fighter aircraft."

He added that, contrary to media reports, Dassault's Rafale "is not being considered".

Speaking on 20 March, the Japanese MoD source refused to say whether interest in the F-22 had been discontinued. "We have decided on three aircraft to meet Japan's next-generation fighter requirements. But the F-22 is a modern, hi-tech fighter - so yes, of course, we are very interested. But of lot of things would need to be cleared before we would have a chance of acquiring the F-22."
Once again, despite "interest" it appears that the Japanese "know" they cannot yet obtain the F-22. There's no evidence to the contrary that I have seen that this will change.

Apparently Japan also has an FMS funded case through LOEXCOM at present to try and get F-22. THAT will be a significant decision either way...
 

old faithful

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I think one of the real issues here is a one platform airforce. Im not a fan of all the eggs in one basket. Im sure that the JSF will be a good/great aircraft in the future. Aust will benefit from operating this plane. Question. What if a technical glitch grounds the entire fleet...engine issues,airframe fatigue or software? It has happend to the pig fleet.We are then left with zero combat aircraft. A mix is still needed IMO. The merits of 3 JSF sqns and an F22/? sqn should be considered at least! As for the non availibility of the F22, a formal request would be a start, then the application of pressure to sell could be used, and we do have some convincing arguments there. Imagine a flanker strike on Nurrunger or Pine Gap.
 

Tasman

Ship Watcher
Verified Defense Pro
I think one of the real issues here is a one platform airforce. Im not a fan of all the eggs in one basket. Im sure that the JSF will be a good/great aircraft in the future. Aust will benefit from operating this plane. Question. What if a technical glitch grounds the entire fleet...engine issues,airframe fatigue or software? It has happend to the pig fleet.We are then left with zero combat aircraft. A mix is still needed IMO. The merits of 3 JSF sqns and an F22/? sqn should be considered at least! As for the non availibility of the F22, a formal request would be a start, then the application of pressure to sell could be used, and we do have some convincing arguments there. Imagine a flanker strike on Nurrunger or Pine Gap.
I share your concern about a one platform air force, whilst acknowledging the economic and logistical benefits. The last thing we would want would be to see our entire air combat force grounded because of a technical problem. A mixed force would also offer better opportunities for dissimilar air combat training. For that reason I would be quite happy with a force of FA-18Fs and F-35s (including some F-35Bs for operations from the LHDs), with the FA18Fs serving as forward air control aircraft and buddy tankers as well as in their prime strike fighter role.

A lot has been said about the threat posed to Australia by regional air forces. I would like to think that developments in these air forces are being constantly monitored. At present I accept that regional air forces, like that of Indonesia, don't pose a threat that cannot be dealt with by the existing F111C/FA-18A Hornet combination or the forthcoming Super Hornet/HUG Hornet mix but things can change quickly. If available down the track, I think a squadron of F-22s, in place of the fourth squadron of F-35s, would have merit as a replacement for the FA-18F. On the other hand, if a serious air threat is identified in our region during the next decade I think Australia should then seriously consider pressing the US to release the F-22 (and/or the FB-22 if it is developed) to the RAAF in place of some of the JSFs.

How likely do our professional members think it is that the USAF will keep the Raptor in at least low rate production? I am certain it (and probably the projected FB-22 as well) would be ordered in quantity in the unlikely event that the JSF program either falls over completely or the more likely possibility that it is ordered in much lower numbers than presently planned. It would also seem logical to me for the US to keep the production line open as an insurance policy.


Cheers
 

Occum

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Response to Ozzy Blizzard Post #534

Sure nelson is a d*ckhead. He wouldn't know a strike fighter from his left elbow. The letters RCS probably mean real cricket scores to him. But that doesent mean that anyone who supports the JSF program is the same, which is what you implied. And an example of some posts that ignore the laws of phisics is???
re the Hon Minister for Defence, hold that thought!

In response to your question, let's see, the following is a far from exhaustive list of some examples (though, in keeping with not wanting to be accused of stooping down to the ad hominem attacks of the Super Regurgitators that frequent this forum, the posts have been generalised by the content rather than their authors, who should know who they are, anyway) -

1. Any post that refers to the SH as being stealthy - though, as per my previous post on this, the law of just good old plain common sense is also getting a battering with this one.

2. Any post that claims the SH has better aerodynamic performance than, say, a MIG 29.

3. Any post that claims the JSF is (or, even, will) be 'stealthy' in the IR and optical bands from the rear hemisphere when accelerating to and maintaining super sonic speeds.

4. Any post that claims the JSF APG-81 radar will be more powerful than the APG-77 - this is just another Harvey-ism which is just pure, unadulterated BS. That's what comes from just regurgitating the marketing spin.

As to you extending what you understand to be the arguments, based upon what has been posted, to justifying such things as procuring F-15s, this suggests you don't understand the arguments. I am not anti the JSF aircraft or the capabilities that are being developed. What I am saying is that the JSF capability is yet to be proven and, given the level of risk in the program, this will be a tall ask. What I disagree with, and strongly so, is the opinion that the JSF is the right aircraft for Australia. Nailing Defence's and the government's colours to the JSF mast before the appropriate evaluations had been done was just plain silly and quite naive.

The real and present danger, now, is that Project Archangel will succeed and Australia will be left with SH's as its new air combat capability. If you do a search of Occum Posts you will be able to find out what Project Archangel is all about, if you don't already know.

Also, I presume what you refer to as 'doom and gloom' are the results that have been posted from the risk analyses that have been done by independent experts. Your choice of words reflect one of the many reasons why subjectiveness, attitudes and emotion have no place in risk analysis and the overarching discipline of risk management.

Happy to answer your other question on what threats that are in and coming in to the region that will defeat the JSF, but before doing so, I ask that you read the following which you should find of some assistance, particularly if you consider your question in terms of WVR and BVR engagements in total energy terms as well as more than just offensive and defensive air to air assets -

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-JSF-Analysis.html

Cheers,


:)
 

rickshaw

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
I think one of the real issues here is a one platform airforce. Im not a fan of all the eggs in one basket. Im sure that the JSF will be a good/great aircraft in the future. Aust will benefit from operating this plane. Question. What if a technical glitch grounds the entire fleet...engine issues,airframe fatigue or software? It has happend to the pig fleet.We are then left with zero combat aircraft. A mix is still needed IMO. The merits of 3 JSF sqns and an F22/? sqn should be considered at least! As for the non availibility of the F22, a formal request would be a start, then the application of pressure to sell could be used, and we do have some convincing arguments there. Imagine a flanker strike on Nurrunger or Pine Gap.
Well, you'd have to ask who would make such a strike? Further, I'll just point out, Nurrungar was closed a decade ago, while Pine Gap is on its way out, with the announcement of the new Joint Intelligence Facility near Geraldton in WA.

I'm in agreement with you over the issue of a single platform offensive force. However I would suggest rather than threatening over the bases, we should use quiet diplomacy and perhaps suggest that we may be forced to downgrade the importance of our alliance with the USA. As I have pointed out in other threads, this alliance has been costly to us and provided little substantive return. We have good grounds, apart from the matter of the purchase of F-22s to do so IMO.
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
re the Hon Minister for Defence, hold that thought!

In response to your question, let's see, the following is a far from exhaustive list of some examples (though, in keeping with not wanting to be accused of stooping down to the ad hominem attacks of the Super Regurgitators that frequent this forum, the posts have been generalised by the content rather than their authors, who should know who they are, anyway) -

1. Any post that refers to the SH as being stealthy - though, as per my previous post on this, the law of just good old plain common sense is also getting a battering with this one.

2. Any post that claims the SH has better aerodynamic performance than, say, a MIG 29.

3. Any post that claims the JSF is (or, even, will) be 'stealthy' in the IR and optical bands from the rear hemisphere when accelerating to and maintaining super sonic speeds.

4. Any post that claims the JSF APG-81 radar will be more powerful than the APG-77 - this is just another Harvey-ism which is just pure, unadulterated BS. That's what comes from just regurgitating the marketing spin.
Sure. agree with all of that.

1. The SH RCS has been reduced somewhat, but stealthy it is not.

2. Airodynamically the super bug is not all that great, however its sensor/avionics/weapons package is much much better than a MiG 29, or an SU 27 or maybe even an SU 30.

3. Agree with that. But they are some pretty narrow peramiters. How about from the frontal or side aspect while crusing??? Or from the rear while cruising for that matter? Or what about total stealth (RCS reduction and IR) from the all important frontal aspect?

4. Agree with that. Allthough the APG 81 will be more capable at aquireing ground targets.

As to you extending what you understand to be the arguments, based upon what has been posted, to justifying such things as procuring F-15s, this suggests you don't understand the arguments. I am not anti the JSF aircraft or the capabilities that are being developed. What I am saying is that the JSF capability is yet to be proven and, given the level of risk in the program, this will be a tall ask. What I disagree with, and strongly so, is the opinion that the JSF is the right aircraft for Australia. Nailing Defence's and the government's colours to the JSF mast before the appropriate evaluations had been done was just plain silly and quite naive.

The real and present danger, now, is that Project Archangel will succeed and Australia will be left with SH's as its new air combat capability. If you do a search of Occum Posts you will be able to find out what Project Archangel is all about, if you don't already know.

Also, I presume what you refer to as 'doom and gloom' are the results that have been posted from the risk analyses that have been done by independent experts. Your choice of words reflect one of the many reasons why subjectiveness, attitudes and emotion have no place in risk analysis and the overarching discipline of risk management.

Happy to answer your other question on what threats that are in and coming in to the region that will defeat the JSF, but before doing so, I ask that you read the following which you should find of some assistance, particularly if you consider your question in terms of WVR and BVR engagements in total energy terms as well as more than just offensive and defensive air to air assets -

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-JSF-Analysis.html

Cheers,


:)
Some problems i have with APA's analysis:

1. There is a body of factual analysis in the link reguarding aircraft design and heritage. However this is acompanied by unsubstantiated statements like "with the evoloution of stike tactics, the JSF falls short in both range and payload. were the JSF designed today, the CTOL/CV variant would be larger twin engined fighters closer to the size of the F111". One simple question. Why???

2. APA claims the F111 is a far more capable deep strike platform than the F35. Again this is not sustantiated. APA seem to ignore the threat environment when they are talking about the F111, but not when they talk about the JSF. The F111 will only be survivable in the S300/SU 30Mk environment if its strike missions are conducted at high speed and low altitute with heavy fighter escort (which limits range as it is). It has a HUGE RCS, and its IR signature at high speed and low altitude would be beyond huge. High speed + low altitude = Heaps of Fuel eg. no range.The F35 will be able to strike at high altitute with stand off weapons due to its frontal aspect stealth capability at low speed. The anyalogy that was used was that 60 F35's would give us the strike capability of the current F111 fleet. I dont buy that one bit.

3. The "export" version of the F35 is claimed to be much less "stealthy" than the US version. Again this is not substasiated, and if it is indeed true, this factor is not taken into account when APA consideres the F22.

4. The SU 30MK threat is not substantiated to a sufficient degree. The F35's RCS reduction may be optimized for X band radars, however it's vulnerability to low frequency wavelengths are not illustrated or substantiated enough. The detection ranges have to be significantly reduced, especially from long range AWACS assets. SU 30MK uses X band radars that will be very effectively defeated by F35's "narrowband" stealth. APA argues that SU 30MK's could be vectored on to fireing positions by low frequency radars and use near BVR IR missiles such as an AA version of the SA 6B gainfull SAM seeker to defeat the unaware F35. I have to say that this situation is slightly unrealistic. Any enconter envolving the RAAF would include Wedgetail airborne radar, the F35's would be well aware of any SU 30MK's in the theater and exactly what they were doing from extreem range. I doubt enemy AWACS would detect the F35 at long range, so this would give the F35 a huge advantage. JSF's could be vectered into perfect fireing positions via datalink. The near BVR IR missiles outlined are not in service and are out ranged and outperformed by the AIM 120c AMRAAM carried by the F35, so i very much doubt that the SU 30Mk would be allowed to reach a fireing position without being enguaged by the F35. Also the illustration showing the missile ranges of the R77T, R27 EP, R27 EP, R77P vs the AIM 120c AMRAAM (Not the ER variant mind you) is also missleading. All the missiles stated (correct me if i'm rong) use X band fire controll radars, which would be effectively countered by the F35's 'narrowband' stealth and therefore the range difference given is irrelevent. So the missile advantage would lie with the F35 not the SU 30MK. The energy advantage that the SU XX might enjoy does not resolve the radar dissadvantage that they suffer due to the F35's stealth. Without effective fire controll those long range R77's are useless or said range is reduced to near BVR due to IR guidance. However said SU XX are up against a very capable missile in the AIM 120c. Seems like selective statistics and an analysis with an agenda to me.

5. Repeated statements like "canberra beuricrats" and references to their crazy claims. These "beuricrats" would seem to include senior RAAF brass. This is a fact that APA seem to forget when they talk about their critics.

6. The only alternative APA puts forward is the F22A/F111S plan wich clearly shows a conflict of interest and calls into question the basis for some of their unsubstantiated claims.

7. The blanket statement that its is rediclous to question the F22A's strike capability because it replaces the F117, even though the F117, like the F22A is not configured for CAS/BID and has only ever been used for deep penitration precision strike.

The F22 is a truely awesome aircraft. And i have to say that i would be very supportive of a squadron sized purchase. However the F35 still looks like a good choice for the basis of the RAAF force structure, although i admit it was not designed as an air superiority fighter and may not be as capable in that reguard as i thought. The F22 will be excellant for air to air work or deep strike. However the F35 will be devistating as an BID/CAS platform which the F22 is less suited for, that will be very capable at deep strike, (yes i would argue much more than an F111S with its huge RCS and IR signmature). The fact is that the F111S/F22A plan is a BAD one. Not enough flexability, not enough platforms, not enough CAS/BID capability, not enough marritime strike capability, reliance on the F111 as the primary strike platform for the next 40 years (using APA's timeframe) and a large reduction in the force structure (25%). I agree that there are some problems with the all F35 force structure, however the F18F may be a blessing in disquise. It may give us the breathing room to allow a purchase of a squadron of F22A's that may be available at an affordable price. This structure of 3 F35 squadrons and 1 F22 squadron would be a formidable mix, much more potent than the F111S/F22A structure, and one that mirrors the USAF. If the F22A is unavailable in that time, i am unconvinced that there is a more capable air superiority platform out there (that is available for purchase and realistic) then the F35. I would love to hear other sujestions though. I look foreward to your reply and your opinions on the capability of the F35 vs Su XX in the BVR (in particular) + WVR enguagements (including factors such as missiles and airbourne radar). :)
 
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Rich

Member
Well, you'd have to ask who would make such a strike? Further, I'll just point out, Nurrungar was closed a decade ago, while Pine Gap is on its way out, with the announcement of the new Joint Intelligence Facility near Geraldton in WA.

I'm in agreement with you over the issue of a single platform offensive force. However I would suggest rather than threatening over the bases, we should use quiet diplomacy and perhaps suggest that we may be forced to downgrade the importance of our alliance with the USA. As I have pointed out in other threads, this alliance has been costly to us and provided little substantive return. We have good grounds, apart from the matter of the purchase of F-22s to do so IMO.
And what if we "quietly suggest" we need to "downgrade the importance of our Alliance with Australia"? What then ? What would, whats left of ANZUS, do? Besides save the whales?

You still dont understand do you riskshaw? That you need us far, far more then we need you. Pulling out your 800 troops from Iraq wouldn't cause a ripple. Its not like they are actually fighting anyways. How many are in Afghanistan? 500? With most helping the Dutch build houses?

You still seem to think that this deployment should automatically give you the right to buy any Yank weapons system you want. Including our most precious air asset,
We have good grounds, apart from the matter of the purchase of F-22s to do so IMO.
yeah, right.

You dont see the big picture yet do you? You need us. But, we dont need you! Why should we even give a damn about Asia?

Boy it would just be just a disaster for us if ANZUS folded.:eek:nfloorl: Who knows? The end game might be our defense expenditures might fall to 2.5% while yours rose to 4.5% Aint Life funny?
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
And what if we "quietly suggest" we need to "downgrade the importance of our Alliance with Australia"? What then ? What would, whats left of ANZUS, do? Besides save the whales?

You still dont understand do you riskshaw? That you need us far, far more then we need you. Pulling out your 800 troops from Iraq wouldn't cause a ripple. Its not like they are actually fighting anyways. How many are in Afghanistan? 500? With most helping the Dutch build houses?

You still seem to think that this deployment should automatically give you the right to buy any Yank weapons system you want. Including our most precious air asset, yeah, right.

You dont see the big picture yet do you? You need us. But, we dont need you! Why should we even give a damn about Asia?

Boy it would just be just a disaster for us if ANZUS folded.:eek:nfloorl: Who knows? The end game might be our defense expenditures might fall to 2.5% while yours rose to 4.5% Aint Life funny?


Damn what is it with you mate??? You allways have to end up being offencive or agressive. If you have a problem with rickshaws views you could have politely pointed out the benefits of the US Australian alliance to us. But you just have to say stupid sh*t like that. We were the first ones by your side after 911, followed you streight into Afghanistan and Iraq no questions asked. Even envoked ANZUS which was beyond a streach. I would say 90% of the Australian population is whole hartedly supportive of the US alliance, and that could even be conservative. There has never been a time (maybe apart from WW2) were the alliance has been stronger, even after our involvement in a US led unpopular war. How do you think we feel when you say sh*t like you just did. Why should we give a sh*t about 911? We wern't attacked! Why should we spend billions of dollars and Australian lives on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq? Why should we allow US baces on our soil? Why? Because even though the US has arrogant d*ckheads like you holding thier passport, we share deep cultural, moral, economic, military, philosophical and emotional links with the US. We were brothers in arms in 2 world wars, korea, vietnem, OIF and OEF. We bled together in those conflicts. We fought fashism side by side and won. And even though sertain Yanks have superpower megolomania, the vast majority i have dealt with are great genuine people. We ARE ALLIES, and even if some of you are arrogant f*#ks attempt insult your closest freinds, we will remain so.
 
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Rich

Member
We ARE ALLIES, and even if some of you are arrogant f*#ks attempt insult your closest freinds, we will remain so.
Read my post again and this time do it slowly. Then tell me if you think I was talking to all Australians or just to Rickshaw, who's whining and sniveling I'm getting sick and tired of.

How many Pro-Aussie posts of mine do you have to read to also help you figure out who I was talking to?

Better yet, pop a Valium before re-reading it.
 
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Tasman

Ship Watcher
Verified Defense Pro
Question to Occum re force mix

Hi Occum

The only alternative to the all JSF force favoured by the RAAF that I have seen put forward by you, in this forum, or by APA, in its publications, is an Evolved F111/F22A mix. For all its merits I can't see how this can still be a realistic proposition.

Regardless of whether or not Australia should have gone down the Evolved F111 path it now seems to me that we have reached a point where this just will not happen. The FA-18F purchase will surely see the F111C/RF111C/F111G force hurried out of service as planned by the RAAF and I just can't see how it will be possible to resurrect this proposal in the future. Whilst the Labor Party may well re-open the F-22/JSF debate if it wins the election later this year I have seen nothing to suggest that they would also re-open the Evolved F111 proposal. The FA-18F contract will be too advanced to pull back from it after the election so it seems certain that any future proposals must now accept the reality that the F111 will be gone but that at least 24 new FA-18Fs will be part of the force structure. Even if the Super Hornets are subsequently replaced it would be irresponsible for any government to do so before the taxpayer has received a reasonable return from this investment so they will be with us for at least ten years. This obviously has implications for the RAAF's preferred all JSF option as well.

My question is, presuming the Evolved F111 is not an option, what do you see as the most cost effective mix of aircraft to meet Australia's requirements for its air combat force?

Cheers
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
And what if we "quietly suggest" we need to "downgrade the importance of our Alliance with Australia"? What then ? What would, whats left of ANZUS, do? Besides save the whales?
Missunderstood that did i? Is that all the ADF is good for, saving the whales?

you need us far, far more then we need you. Pulling out your 800 troops from Iraq wouldn't cause a ripple. Its not like they are actually fighting anyways. How many are in Afghanistan? 500? With most helping the Dutch build houses?
Must have missunderstood that to. Gee, i guess 4RAR and SASR are useless, we might aswell pull them out then. Since our deployment is sooooo usefull.


You dont see the big picture yet do you? You need us. But, we dont need you! Why should we even give a damn about Asia?
Your right Rich i dont see how any of this could be offencive to Australians, it is not disrespectfull to the families of those who lost thier lives supporting the US alliance at all is it? Maybe we should be bowing down in subserviance to rome?

Boy it would just be just a disaster for us if ANZUS folded.:eek:nfloorl:
Wow, your right mate, i must have just been oversencitive.

Who knows? The end game might be our defense expenditures might fall to 2.5% while yours rose to 4.5% Aint Life funny?
Our threat level might drop too. Funny that.
 
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