F-35 - International Participation

[StingrayOZ]

I do wonder now the production is underway, the project is extremely low risk, and everyone is happy with on going costs, if we don't see more F-35B orders. Spain, Korea, and Japan would seem likely candidates as all of them have compatible ships in the water or very near to it.

The F-35 is going to be very compelling once more countries get on board. Being able to operate sustained out of any friendly airbase, or friendly carrier, cross training and embedding should be very high, and mixed operational deployments likely.

Regarding Australia's F-18's, the US has been extremely helpful with Australia's need with the longer than expected F-35 arrival and the shorter lives of our classic F-18's. It is nothing that money can't fix. I'm sure if there was a firm commitment to go to an all F-35 fleet the USN would consider a deal. The US could then possible on sell them to a country who is looking at getting something, but the F-35 isn't suitable.

 

[John Newman]

I do wonder now the production is underway, the project is extremely low risk, and everyone is happy with on going costs, if we don't see more F-35B orders. Spain, Korea, and Japan would seem likely candidates as all of them have compatible ships in the water or very near to it.

The F-35 is going to be very compelling once more countries get on board. Being able to operate sustained out of any friendly airbase, or friendly carrier, cross training and embedding should be very high, and mixed operational deployments likely.

Regarding Australia's F-18's, the US has been extremely helpful with Australia's need with the longer than expected F-35 arrival and the shorter lives of our classic F-18's. It is nothing that money can't fix. I'm sure if there was a firm commitment to go to an all F-35 fleet the USN would consider a deal. The US could then possible on sell them to a country who is looking at getting something, but the F-35 isn't suitable.

And not to forget the reports earlier this year that Singapore was also supposed to be interested in the B model, so that's another possible user of the B model too.

With the Hornets, I assume you are talking about 'back trading' the Super Hornets to the USN and possibly selling them to a third party?

The SHornets will be around 10 yrs old when the first Sqn of F-35's come into service and probably closer to 15 yrs by the time the last of the Classic Sqn's are replaced.

Then of course there has to be a commitment from Government between now and then to go with the 4th Sqn sooner, but according to the last DWP that's not planned to happen till around 2030, and if the SHornets are replaced around that time they will be 20 years old.

The question is, are 20 year old SHornets worth trading back at that age?

 

[StingrayOZ]

The question is, are 20 year old SHornets worth trading back at that age?

Well its in the US interests for Australia to buy more new fighters. So I'm sure they could consider several disposal options, even if they just part them out for the USN.

At which time (2030) the B should be quiet a popular model, and perhaps the time to consider if we would want to operate any. While not exactly the same as the A model, they should be more alike than a superhornet is to a hornet, enough that you are effectively flying one model. Even if we don't pursue a carrier of our own, using B models to participate in international efforts may become the most common way to for aircraft to participate. In that frame, we can operate with UK, USN, USMC, Spanish, Italian, Korean, Japanese carrier forces. The LHD have enough aviation capability to train locally. But I don't want to derail this thread into Australian carrier aviation.

With Singapore also possibly ordering B's, Australia's absent interest in the B is notable. We would be the only country in the region with F-35 without the B's, even though we have ships that can operate them (even if just for training).

We were previously very keen to get the 4th squad. I know we have had a whole bunch of governments since then, but if we don't get the 4th squad, we might fall out of sync in terms of aircraft life again compared to allies.

Why keep the Hornets, if they are already knackered.

 

[gf0012-aust]

the shornets are a bastardised lease - so they can't be "traded back"

they'll either be sent home or disposed of as per FMS provisions and conditions

there's also a sidebar consideration with JSF jumpers - eg the 2 x Sth Korean future light carriers are based on an italian design - so the italians will also be watching with interest

 

[htbrst]

Hidden in the latest news about the F-35 is this doozy from Loren Thompson
S.Korea order would drive F-35 per-plane cost lower | Reuters

He said Singapore would likely follow suit with its own orders, followed by Malaysia and possibly New Zealand.

Never mind the NZ Defence minister specifically addressed the F-35 while in the US last month and poured ice-cold water over any suggestion NZ would even be remotely interested.

10 points for being optimistic of an order in the short term I guess:girl

 

[StingrayOZ]

the shornets are a bastardised lease - so they can't be "traded back"

they'll either be sent home or disposed of as per FMS provisions and conditions

there's also a sidebar consideration with JSF jumpers - eg the 2 x Sth Korean future light carriers are based on an italian design - so the italians will also be watching with interest

Well, I don't know how possible it is, but say perhaps we did give them back over to the USN, so we could jump into the USN or USMC production slots. So we trade a bit of their life to jump the F-35 que.

Interesting about the carriers. Could be an interesting combination for countries looking at purchasing.

However, with China's move into airspace diplomacy, I can imagine the need to be able to enforce ones own airspace in the middle of no where becoming a much greater priority.

 

[ngatimozart]

Hidden in the latest news about the F-35 is this doozy from Loren Thompson
S.Korea order would drive F-35 per-plane cost lower | Reuters



Never mind the NZ Defence minister specifically addressed the F-35 while in the US last month and poured ice-cold water over any suggestion NZ would even be remotely interested.

10 points for being optimistic of an order in the short term I guess:girl

Haha, maybe he's going to offer a really good finance deal then. In that case we'll have 24 F35Bs thank you and a side order of fries please. nfloorl:

 

[John Fedup]

I do wonder now the production is underway, the project is extremely low risk, and everyone is happy with on going costs, if we don't see more F-35B orders. Spain, Korea, and Japan would seem likely candidates as all of them have compatible ships in the water or very near to it.

The F-35 is going to be very compelling once more countries get on board. Being able to operate sustained out of any friendly airbase, or friendly carrier, cross training and embedding should be very high, and mixed operational deployments likely.

Regarding Australia's F-18's, the US has been extremely helpful with Australia's need with the longer than expected F-35 arrival and the shorter lives of our classic F-18's. It is nothing that money can't fix. I'm sure if there was a firm commitment to go to an all F-35 fleet the USN would consider a deal. The US could then possible on sell them to a country who is looking at getting something, but the F-35 isn't suitable.

The F-35B does offer more operational flexibility, especially for countries with carriers or LHDs but it comes at a steep price. More importantly the B version carries the most risk and will have higher operational costs. Countries that don't have immediate needs for upgrading their fighter fleets will have time to see how the A and B versions play out. Perhaps the B's higher cost can be justified by proven performance and added flexibility.

 

[colay]

Anyone know if these new aircraft orders will help to bring down the ever-escalating flyaway costs of the F-35 which have been rising due to order cutbacks thus far?

Absolutely. One of the reasons why the USG was very keen on South Korea selecting the F-35., for example.

Lockheed Martin Corporation : South Korea order would drive F-35 per-plane cost lower | 4-Traders

 

[ADMk2]

good to hear - thanks! Last I heard about it before this South Korean order, the F-35 programme was in a death spiral with each cut in order numbers resulting in a higher overall cost due to skyrocketing production costs.

When a program is ordering 70+ aircraft a year in LOW RATE initial production, that doesn't exactly scream "death spiral" to most rational people. Lunatics on the internet desperate to try and "prove" their irrational rantings are somehow related to reality would like you to believe that a fighter program building 70 aircraft a year is somehow failing however.

The build rate of Rafale, Gripen, SU-35, PAK-FA and Typhoon combined I doubt reaches this build rate per year, yet for some reason no-one is suggesting these programs are in a "death spiral" and F-35 has always been planned to increase build rate once it enters FRP, beyond 70 aircraft per year up to 200 per year if the full planned rate is achieved.

South Korea hasn't yet ordered any F-35 aircraft but even if they do so tomorrow, those 40 aircraft aren't the difference between any "death spiral" or success. The 1760 that the USAF plans to order will be.

 

[John Newman]

good to hear - thanks! Last I heard about it before this South Korean order, the F-35 programme was in a death spiral with each cut in order numbers resulting in a higher overall cost due to skyrocketing production costs.

Whilst it is certainly more good news for the F-35 program that another customer, South Korea, has come on board, I don't understand how you could think that prior to SK coming on board with it's planned order of 40 aircraft that the program was in a 'death spiral' and that production costs were 'skyrocketing', where does that come from?

Depending on where you are getting your information from (the general media I assume?), you are going to see vastly different reporting of the facts. Unfortunately most of the general media reports are nothing more than garbage and it also depends on if the reporter is trying to make an 'anti' F-35 statement or not, or they are just ignorant.

Here are a couple of links for you to look at:

F-35 Costs Drop as Technical Challenges Lessen, Officials Say | Defense News | defensenews.com

https://www.f35.com/news/detail/lrip-6-7-contract-agreements


As you will see in the Defensenews article, from LRIP 1 trough to LRIP 5, airframe costs dropped 55%. In the second link, f35.com, you will see that LRIP 6 dropped another 2.5% from the cost of LRIP 5 airframes and LRIP 7 is 6% lower than LRIP 5. And by the time the program gets to full rate production the costs will continue to drop even further.

Those figures above were published all 'before' the planned SK order, doesn't look like skyrocketing production costs to me.

Planned production currently stands at a bit over 3100 airframes, and yes no doubt that figure will fluctuate, some of the original partner nations will order less than they originally planned, but equally there has been additional customers such as Israel, Japan and now South Korea, and there are possibly more customers to come on board, countries such as Singapore and Belgium for example.

Juice, I'm not trying to have a go at you ok?, just making the point that the program is and was not in a 'death spiral' as you appear to believe.

 

[ADMk2]

Whilst it is certainly more good news for the F-35 program that another customer, South Korea, has come on board, I don't understand how you could think that prior to SK coming on board with it's planned order of 40 aircraft that the program was in a 'death spiral' and that production costs were 'skyrocketing', where does that come from?

It's a relatively common opinion among those forums and blogs where the owners and contributors appear to have largely lost their marbles.

A program that is rapidly approaching the total build number of F-22's ever built and within a couple of years will over take the total numbers built of SAAB Gripens and Dassault Rafales (to date) is somehow perceived as a failure despite attracting orders from Israel and Japan above the original planned customers already with South Korea, Singapore, Belgium and Finland potentially coming on-board as well in years to come.

The 2 additional customers to date have ordered 61 aircraft between them. South Korea will take that to over 100 if and when they come on board.

Any other fighter program would kill to have those numbers, yet F-35 is portrayed as somehow failing for attracting those numbers...

It's hilarious.

 

[John Newman]

It's hilarious.

AD, I agree with you, it is hilarious!

Unfortunately though, most of the articles that the average punter in the street is going to read is complete garbage, for the occasional article that I do see in the popular media that is 'reasonably' accurate, many many more are just completely wrong, anyway, nothing will change on that front.

Fortunately on forums, such as here on DT, information is being reported accurately.

As you say too, the other aircraft manufacturers would kill for production numbers anywhere near what the planned F-35 production run will eventually be.

I have no doubt that the current planned production run of more than 3100 airframes will fluctuate, some countries have ordered less than originally planned, Canada doesn't seem to know what it is doing (yet), but on the positive side as we both mentioned, Israel and Japan have ordered 61 (both may order more in the future) and SK's intention of 40 airframes, which may increase in the future too, and of course there are other countries that are currently considering or will in the future too.

F-35 program a failure? I think not!

 

[King Wally]

Unfortunately the media learnt a long time ago that they get far more traction running stories about "things going wrong" / "sky is falling" / "hidden drama exposed" then focusing rationally on facts. Doesn't matter if your reading about Mr Celebrity's hidden love affair in the gossip section or the F-35 death spiralling in the government & business pages its generally speaking deliberately hyped up to draw a reaction from the reader using cherry picked or out of date quotes from "sources" or "industry experts".

 

[John Newman]

Unfortunately the media learnt a long time ago that they get far more traction running stories about "things going wrong" / "sky is falling" / "hidden drama exposed" then focusing rationally on facts. Doesn't matter if your reading about Mr Celebrity's hidden love affair in the gossip section or the F-35 death spiralling in the government & business pages its generally speaking deliberately hyped up to draw a reaction from the reader using cherry picked or out of date quotes from "sources" or "industry experts".

I think there is a bit of a difference with it comes to Defence reporting (in main stream media at the least), sure there are those who have an agenda to 'sensationalise' or misreport on a particular subject or project, such as the F-35, but I think the bigger problem is purely the ignorance of the majority of so called 'defence' reporters.

Let's face it, the average punter in the street has little knowledge of defence matters and even less knowledge of the 'technical' aspects of defence equipment and projects and I'm sure that some reporters also try and 'simplify' the wording used in their stories too (and are probably rather lazy at research too!!), I remember years ago when I was in the legal publishing industry an old journo that I knew who came from newspapers said they would have to write stories in such a 'dumbed down' way so it wasn't hard for the punters to read and understand.

So yes I do agree there are some who intentionally write sensationalised or negative stories about defence for whatever personal agenda they have, but I also believe that the quality level of journo's who write about defence is generally pretty poor to start with.

Anyway, just my opinion!

 

[OPSSG]

Dec 11 - Norway's parliament authorised the government to purchase another six Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 fighter jets for about 4 billion crowns ($654.7 million), the parliament's foreign affairs and defence committee said on Wednesday.

The six jets, to be delivered in 2018, bring the Norwegian order to 16 planes, a small boost for a programme suffering from repeated delays and a 70 percent increase in costs over initial estimates....

<snip>

According to the program of record, Norway plans to buy a total of 52 F-35s. However, purchases for each year have to be separately approved by parliament.

MEDIA ADVISORY!!
F-35B aircraft expected to visit Luke AFB Dec. 10 ...

F-35B aircraft from Marine Corps Air Station Yuma are expected to be flying at Luke AFB from approximately 10:30 a.m. to noon on Tuesday, Dec. 10. The aircraft will be at Luke at the request of senior defense officials from Singapore, who are visiting the base as part of Forging Sabre, a Singapore armed forces exercise taking place at Luke and at the Barry M. Goldwater training range. Singapore is considering purchasing F-35s in the future.

The F-35B is the “short takeoff and vertical landing” variant of the aircraft developed for the U.S. Marine Corps. It is configured differently than the F-35A “conventional takeoff and landing” variant used by the U.S. Air Force. The first of Luke’s F-35A aircraft are expected to arrive in early 2014.

Luke will not be hosting media for the event, but media and the general public are welcome to observe the aircraft flying in the pattern from public areas outside the base.

For questions, contact the 56th Fighter Wing Public Affairs Office at 623-856-6011 or after duty hours at 623-856-5600.

Meanwhile, a short update on current developments in the US...

Luke Air Force Base, home of 425 Fighter Squadron, Singapore's F-16C/D training detachment is the middle of Exercise Forging Sabre 2013 (from 4 December to 15 December 2013), an exercise involving the 425 Fighter Squadron, the 428th Fighter Squadron from Mountain Home AFB, Idaho, and members of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF). Singaporean aircraft involved include the F-16C/Ds, F-15SGs, CH-47 Chinooks and AH-64 Apache helicopters. The purpose of the exercise is to provide the SAF with an opportunity to exercise and train its full spectrum of command, control and execution.

In conjunction with Exercise Forging Sabre 2013, the US Marines staged a aerial display for Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen and Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) officials. A Singaporean blogger, invited to the event, reported that the aerial 16-minute display took place after Dr Ng and Chief of Air Force of the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF), Major-General Hoo Cher Mou were introduced to another F-35B on static display at Luke AFB.

Reuters has reported that Singapore's Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen said his country was seriously considering buying Lockheed Martin's F-35 fighter jet but was in "no particular hurry" to buy new jets since its F-16 fighters were still in good shape during a joint news conference with U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel. Dr Ng said.

"We're in no particular hurry, because our F-16s are still very operational, and they're due for upgrades. But it is a serious consideration."​

In November 2013, it was also reported that the F-35 weapons system programme manager Capt Paul Overstreet said:

“The F-35 is finally on a realistic timeline, and there’s steady progress being made on all fronts. Production is very stable, and the price is coming down, which is critical for the programme.”

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dDqQ8NAFi8"]F-35 Landing And Departing Miramar - YouTube[/nomedia]​

Overstreet says development testing of the Block 2B software required for the USMC’s operational jets is running around one month behind schedule, having been affected by sequestration cuts and a brief, fleet-wide grounding order that affected the short take-off and vertical landing F-35B earlier this year. However, he notes:

“We are very confident that the US Marine Corps will be able to declare IOC during 2015.”​

In October 2013, the Pentagon and Pratt & Whitney signed a deal worth a total of US$1.1 billion for 38 F135 engines, for a sixth batch of F-35 fighter jets. The contract reflects a 2.5 percent reduction in the price of the common configuration engine used in both the Navy and Air Force models of the F-35, and a 9.6 percent cut in the price of the engine that powers the B-model. Chris Flynn, vice president of F135 and F119 engines for Pratt, said the key to generating further savings would be increasing volume and production rates. US Air Force Lieutenant General Chris Bogdan, who heads the F-35 program, said:

"The engine price has been going down and that trend will continue."​

In a November 2013 Breaking Defense interview with Pacific Air Forces, Gen. Hawk Carlisle, underscored that the US Air Force is adopting innovations from partners and he said:-

“The Air Force is stepping up its collaborative efforts and capabilities with key regional air forces, including with Australia, Singapore, South Korea and Japan. And Carlisle emphasized that the service is pushing to enhance cross-collaborative capabilities among those allies as well...

...Singapore is doing very innovative things with their F-15s, notably in evolving the capabilities of the aircraft to contribute to maritime defense and security. We are looking very carefully at their innovations and can leverage their approach and thinking as well. This will certainly grow as we introduce the fleet of F-35s in the Pacific where cross national collaboration is built in.”​

Following a three-year process that included an extensive environmental impact analysis, in July 2013, the US Air Force announced that Luke AFB was chosen as the location for F-35A and the eventual total number of the fifth-generation fighters expected at the base is 144 F-35As. Aircraft are expected to begin arriving at Luke in spring 2014, although exact timing will depend on production schedules. In addition to training US pilots, Luke will also serve as an F-35A International Partner Training site.

 

[the road runner]

The 100 JSF , AF-41 a F-35 A has just come off the production line.
11000 hours have been flown now by JSF and this number will start to grow at a fast rate with more planes in the sky :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGgaRaZP_w8

 

[Air Force Brat]

The 100 JSF , AF-41 a F-35 A has just come off the production line.
11000 hours have been flown now by JSF and this number will start to grow at a fast rate with more planes in the sky :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGgaRaZP_w8

That's right Road Runner AF-41 is the 1st of 144 F-35As headed to Luke AFB starting in early 2014, as the Air Force is basing 6 squadrons of F-35s at Luke, as always very good show, this from LockMarts F-35 homepage today, 12/13/2013.

 

[RobWilliams]

Norway approves funding for it's next batch of 6 F35A aircraft bringing their total order book so far 16 out of a projected 52.

Norway approves next round of F-35 acquisition

The article talks about how of the original 10 examples, 4 will remain in the US for pilot training, presumably then the remainder approximately makes it's first squadron (6+6=12). First two examples to be produced during LRIP-8.

Singapore have cooled down beliefs from some quarters who thought that an order for the F35B was due soon

Singapore in no hurry to purchase F-35s: defence minister

 

[colay]

In the coming days, Japan is expected to formalize it's next 5-year defense plan which apparently calls for an additional F-35 jets. Thanks to heightened tensions in the region, the JSDF will also be acquiring Global Hawk, additional AEGIS ships, Osprey, amphibious vehicles, etc. Nice presents under the Xmas tree.


A lot of new equipment purchases in latest 5-year defense plan - AJW by The Asahi Shimbun

http://www.japantoday.com/smartphone/view/politics/japan-to-hike-mid-term-defense-spending-by-5



Japan to hike mid-term defense spending by 5%

Dec. 14, 2013 - 02:40PM JST




Defense Minister Itsunori Odonera and Finance Minister Taro Aso reached a compromise to free up funds, the Nikkei reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.


Japan’s plan to spend more on defense comes as tensions with China have risen over tiny islands in the East China Sea - known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China.

The spending plan includes an additional purchase of F-35 fighters, made by Lockheed Martin Corp, as well as two more Aegis warships, bringing the total to eight.

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