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Escalation in Iraq

Discussion in 'Geostrategic Issues' started by Feanor, Jan 3, 2020.

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  1. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    Right on wrt Saudi Arabia. Iran and Saudi Arabia are two cheeks forming the ME A-hole. Both are sponsors of terrorism.
     
  2. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    This issue and a couple and a couple of other comments from some democratic presidential candidates aren't exactly enhancing their electoral chances for success. Furthermore, all Republican donations go to Trump whereas Democratic donations are currently being split amongst the field. Maybe Bloomberg's billions might be the only way for Democratic success.

    Assuming there are no more Trump horrors coming out between now and November, the election can go either way. Worse, there are some in the US who believe Trump would call any close election result a fake result and refuse to leave office. I find that difficult to accept but then again, with Trump, anything is possible I guess.
     
  3. Ranger25

    Ranger25 Active Member

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    Johnny, I thought this section of the forum had to do with GeoPolitik specifically the current escalation in Iran, Not necessarily for domestic National political consumption?
     
  4. Preceptor

    Preceptor Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Indeed. This forum is for discussion of defense matters, not US (or any other nation for that matter) domestic politics, and/or political candidates. Continued discussion on such topics could attract those who are only interested in promoting "their" political viewpoints and/or blasting "their" opponent's viewpoints, which would rapidly degenerate into online arguments, trolling and flamewars. None of which should happen on DT. To prevent that from happening, such additional content can expect to be culled as well as sanctions applied without further warning.
    -Preceptor
     
  5. Hone C

    Hone C Member

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  6. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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  7. Pentaprism

    Pentaprism New Member

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    Iraq is continuing to ask the US to leave;

    Iraq Calls on U.S. to Prepare for Troop Withdrawal

    How is the US going to play this? Clearly they don't want to leave but, like a nuisance drunk at a Party, everybody is pointing to the Door. I expect if they don't leave there will continue to be spasmodic attacks on their embassy and Bases from Iranian Militias making life fairly unpleasant. Any major retaliation brings both sides straight to the brink of all out War again.

    Also wonder how is the morale is at the US Bases that were attacked? The enemy has just landed a dozen rockets or so on their rooves while they sat in the Bunker probably crapping themselves. Then their Superpower President comes out and announces, we're going to smash them now - with Sanctions. Reckon a couple of Marines I have met over the years would like to slap them with something a bit harder than sanctions.
     
  8. Feanor

    Feanor Super Moderator Staff Member

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    I really don't like this trend of media announcing blame in complex situations like this before any actual investigation has even been conducted. Iran is inviting the US and Ukraine to participate in the investigation, and the black boxes are at least partially intact, so there's a good chance that we will see some sort of objective investigation conducted. I certainly don't mean to dismiss the possibility of an accidental downing, but I'd like to see an investigation take place prior to assigning responsibility.

    Well the Iraqi Prime Minister is currently a lame duck. So the lay of the land in Iraq may change, and I suspect the US will wait to see what kind of government Iraq will have moving forward before making any permanent moves to withdraw.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2020
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  9. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    Well the media certainly drives events these days or as the U of Toronto professor Marshall McLuhan said years ago “the medium is the message”. The demise of the Ukrainian jet is likely a missile because I just can’t imagine our PM, junior, would ever offer such a strong statement without some compelling info considering how he likes to follow the path of least resistance. The Iranian government’s decision to allow international participation seems to contradict this but it maybe a way for the government to find out who is actually responsible (RG or Iranian military) since one of these organizations seriously screwed up if in fact it was a missile. Another question, which I mentioned in the General Aviation thread is why did Iran allow commercial air operations right after a military BM strike and why did Ukraine allow a carrier to continue operations after the Drone strike last week. The Malaysian air downing should have been a redflag for Ukraine.
     
  10. OPSSG

    OPSSG Super Moderator Staff Member

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    I have said before that any air defence or IADS needs to have an efficient and sophisticated C4ISR system to de-conflict friendlies from hostile aircraft — at the time where Iran shot down a US Navy RQ-4 Global Hawk in June 2019, idiotic supporters of the Iranian regime were making wild claims on Iranian IADS capability, while I remained unimpressed, as I was back then.
    I am still uncertain of Iranian capability to de-conflict their own air space with proper aircraft identification systems (eg. IFF and ADS-B) and robust situational awareness of civilian air traffic patterns and schedules (instead of blindly firing a missile into a sky potentially crowded with civilian aircraft). Any functioning IADS must:

    (a) find enemy targets (like aircraft and cruise missiles) using long-range surveillance radars; to use Target Acquisition Radars (TARs) to enable the enemy aircraft or cruise missiles to be located with enough accuracy to allow it to be fired on;​

    (b) taking the data from long-range surveillance radars and/or TARs, and using the C4ISR to direct your defensive platforms to attack enemy targets and at this stage, it is not uncommon to use a type of radar system called a Fire Control System (FCS), or sometimes called an illuminator, to direct radar guided surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) towards enemy aircraft, cruise or ballistic missiles. These defensive platforms include fighters conducting DCA missions, SAMs of various ranges and AAA; and​

    (c) do not let the defensive platforms attack your own forces. Therefore, de-confliction is a key aspect of an IADS (or avoidance of fratricide). Think of IADS as a series of concentric defensive circles; the outermost might be assigned to fighters on defensive counter air; next SAMs of various ranges; and finally AAA. The C4ISR system must not only provide the defenders with a common operating picture, it must also provide both blue force tracking and airspace management (so the the air bases being defended can continue to launch fighters).​

    Due to what happened to Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 after it left Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport on 9 Jan 2020, I remain unimpressed as Iranian C4 systems for their IADS did not demonstrate the capability to de-conflict with civilian aircraft taking off from their own airports. The Iranians are not the only one to make this type of mistake in the fog of war — on 22 Mar 2003 an American Patriot battery shot down a British Tornado GR4 as it was wrongly identified as an anti-radiation missile after returning from a mission during the opening of Operation Iraqi Freedom or the 27 Feb 2019 shooting down of an Indian Mi-17 helicopter by an Indian surface-to-air missile during the flare-up of aerial violence with Pakistan near Kashmir.
    A couple of hours after Iran launched a missile salvo against Americans in two Iraqi military bases, Iranian air-defence units around Tehran would have been on high alert for the possibility of a US retaliatory strike. Those units would have been looking for relatively low-flying cruise missiles, fast-moving missiles arriving at high altitude and other airborne threats which the SA-15 is designed to defeat. CNN has obtained video on Thursday that appears to show a missile being fired into the Tehran sky and striking an object, around the same time that a Ukrainian plane crashed just after taking off from the city's airport.
    Agreed.

    If the Iranian regime’s own air defence missile is shown to have shot down a civilian airliner taking off from its own airport, their humiliation from the escalation of their conflict with the Americans in Iraq is complete. Iran’s propaganda machine tried to spew fake news and claim that it is a bird strike or engine fire that brought down the aircraft. Initially Iranian officials countered charges by western governments that a pair of missiles were fired at the plane, accusing them of “psychological warfare.” At the same time they have also vowed to follow the norms of crash investigations, including inviting representatives of the U.S. and Boeing. They also held on to the black box despite mounting calls for investigations to be made considering many of those who died are foreign nationals; and photos of the wreckage show that it was peppered with holes, an occurrence that happens when the Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 was hit by shrapnel from Iranian SA-15 anti-aircraft missiles.

    But most members of DT (other than @Persian Gulf) will be able to discern fact from Iranian propaganda.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2020 at 3:30 AM
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  11. OPSSG

    OPSSG Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Iran admits it 'unintentionally' shot down Ukrainian plane

    RIP to the civilians in Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 that was killed by the Iranian regime in what seems to be a tragic mistake. Good to see that the Iranians have finally admitted this mistake after days of denial. Iran’s defeat to President Donald Trump is its own doing. After attacking regional oil tankers and Saudi oil installations and downing a US drone with no US reprisal, Iran “concluded that Trump was all talk and bluster,” according to Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment.

    In fact, Iran had become so complacent that, on the day before Major General Soleimani’s death, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei belittled Trump’s various threats. “[Trump] has tweeted that he sees Iran responsible for the events in Baghdad and will respond,” he said in a tweet, alluding to the months of deadly protests in the Iraqi capital. He then added: “You can’t do anything.” A day later, a US drone killed Major General Soleimani. Given his long career, Khamenei probably realized instantly that Trump had changed the rules of the game. To make matters worse, the Iranians face domestic criticism for shooting down a civilian airliner.

    I tend to think of the current outcome as a pause rather than a conclusion to American and Iranian hostilities. The region is still on a hair-trigger. The IRGC is unlikely to accept that Tehran’s ‘fake’ strike closes the account on Major General Soleimani’s assassination. He spent decades building up proxy forces through the region and the risk of conflict remains high. The late Major General Soleimani has worked with “nonstate actors”— a fractious group of militias, religious groups and tribal forces. These groups have grown in importance, confounding traditional statecraft. IRGC and Soleimani exploited them in Iran’s interests. His absence might help in the short term, but it also shows just how deep a challenge the region will pose in the near future.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
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  12. Ranger25

    Ranger25 Active Member

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    Horrible tragically event. Somewhat surprising to see their admonition of guilt but still a tragic mistake.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2020
  13. 2007yellow430

    2007yellow430 Member

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    there is a very fine line between the politics and the military response, or what that response will be. Rather than act as an advocate, can we discuss where we think this is going, which will have political overtones?
    Art
     
  14. Pentaprism

    Pentaprism New Member

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    Sad that Politicians (from many Governments, not just Iran) refuse to tell the truth until the story they want to spin is shown to be so blatantly false they are forced to come clean. Citizens all over the World deserve better.

    Agree with OPSSG that this may only be round 1 in a longer battle. Iran has said they want the US out of the Region. Iraq has said it wants its Sovereignty respected and the US to leave. So has Syria. US has replied current Deployments are "appropriate" - really an amazing rebuttal of a request from an "ally" to leave their Territory and basically a frank admission they they have no regard for other Countries Sovereignty.

    Unfortunately these divergent views are more likely to be resolved by more blood letting than negotiation. There is a Political process for the Iraqis to go through first so I don't expect much Military Action for a couple of Months. But if Iraq issues the USA an Official Request written request to leave and they ignore it I expect Militia attacks on Embassies and Bases to occur.
     
  15. Feanor

    Feanor Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Updates.

    Balad airbase has been hit by rockets again, 8 of them. 4 Iraqi military personnel were injured.

    В Ираке повторно подверглась обстрелу используемая американцами авиабаза
    Обстрел американской авиабазы Балад

    A dutch journalists reports that damage to the Ayn-al-Asad was greater then the Pentagon initially claimed, with multiple helicopters destroyed. Though personally I suspect its possible that it looked worse then it was.

    О чём умолчал Пентагон: потери на базе Айн-аль-Ассад оказались гораздо серьезнее
    Ужасающий опыт

    The head of the Pentagon says that he never saw any evidence that Iran was behind the attacks on US embassies.

    Esper Says He Saw No Evidence Iran Targeted 4 Embassies, as Story Shifts Again

    It appears the US is currently not withdrawing from Iraq, with a statement released saying "At this time, any delegation sent to Iraq would be dedicated to discussing how to best recommit to our strategic partnership - not to discuss troop withdrawal, but our right, appropriate force posture in the Middle East".

    "Стадия торга"

    EDIT: Approximately 100 US military vehicles have left two bases in Syria and entered Iraq.

    Военные США на примерно 100 грузовиках покинули территории двух баз в Сирии, выдвинувшись к границе с Ираком
     
  16. Mike Wallace

    Mike Wallace New Member

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    Imagine the guy responsible for that blunder. Under pressure from higher ups to get any flying object down but without the decision to close the national airspace. After pulling the trigger, then realizing what he has done and then facing the wrath of the entire world.
     
  17. 2007yellow430

    2007yellow430 Member

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    bets are the entire battery staff is punished. Probably a show trial, then executed. None of the higher ups will receive any punishment.

    Art
     
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  18. Ranger25

    Ranger25 Active Member

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    They were just following orders more than likely. Unfortunate tragedy. As others with knowledge {OPPSSG} have discussed in the forum it most likely is an indication of the lack of sophisticated C4ISR. Hard to blame the boots on the ground for an inherent lack of all that is required to make difficult split second decisions in that environment given the circumstances.

    Again, another tragic event involving military Tech and Civilian casualties
     
  19. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    This is very political in Iran and there appears to be just about open conflict between the two main factions within Iranian politics over this. The new head of the IRCG, Major General Hossein Salami, claimed that the IRCG bought the shoot down to public attention, and claims that the military could of kept hiding it. 'Funeral for public trust': Iran in new crisis after plane crash. But the protests are still continuing and even though the authorities have clamped down, they haven't appeared to be as agressive about it, as they have been in the past. That can and probably will change.

    Also new video has surfaced New video shows Ukrainian plane struck by two Iranian missiles claiming to show that two SAMs were fired at the airliner and both hit their target.
     
  20. Feanor

    Feanor Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Aren't two missiles per target standard for GBAD? I've seen it in Russian sources repeatedly, but I don't recall reading anything in any other publications.