Firstly, may I suggest that we leave any debate as to the merits of such an acquisition to the myriad of other threads currently underway, and leave this thread as just an information thread?
OK, here's the way it is from my understanding, although Occum and his contacts may have more inside information.
Boeing has been subtly pushing the Super Hornet option to Government for several years, although the previously unsolicted proposals turned 'solicited' earlier this year after Nelson said he had asked RAAF/DMO to look at options should the F-35 be delayed. The RAAF has always said the Super Hornet would be the 'Plan B' option for AIR 6000.
About two months ago I began to get wind of more serious discussions being underway with Boeing. One of their unsolicted proposals was a program internally dubbed 'Archangel' (thanks to Occum for filling in the last pieces of the puzzle on that) under which they were pitching Super Hornets to various nations in our region (Japan, India, Malaysia and Australia) with the plan to offset a purchase with as much local industry involvement as possible.
In Japan and India's case (120+ aircraft requirement each), this would likely include local final assembly of the aircraft and the manufacture of various components, engines etc; for Malaysia it may include the manufacture of some smaller high tech components; and for Australia, perhaps some more manufacturing involvement for Hawker de Havilland in the form of additional Super Hornet bits (HdH already does gear doors, trailing edge control surfaces for ALL Supers) and perhaps 777, 787, 747I and other opportunities from within the Boeing stable of airplanes.
In early December, Boeing IDS head Jim Albaugh and his Hornet sales head Rick McCrary were in Canberra and met with senior ADF and Govt officials, including the full National Security Commitee, to discuss the Super option, and it was basicaly agreed that the RAAF would take 24 F/A-18Fs as a "bridging" (NOT "interim") capability so the F-111s can be retired in 2010, and so we don't have to take as many LRIP F-35s as early as we thought we might have to. The first 'hint' (to me anyway) that something was going to happen was when Nelson dropped the HUG 2.3 ALR-2002 RWR in favour of the ALR-67, a system which is common to USN Supers.
The information in Thursday's Fin Review is basically correct, as it was leaked to them by the Minister's Office directly!
So, it looks like a goer, with the 'ONLY' details still to be worked out being the delivery schedule, the cost, the method of purchase, and the local industry opportunities... so it's fair to say there's still a bit of water to pass under the bridge yet.
It is unlikely such an arrangement would be a lease, as there are restrictions on how the aircraft can be operated (hours/month, G-limits etc), and you have nothing to show for it at the end of the lease term. However, an outright purchase, although 'lumpy' up front, gives the RAAF much more flexibility in the use of the aircraft, especially as a second tier to a fifth gen platform later on, and the option to keep them longer term (something alot of people wish we had done with the Phantoms 33 years ago!).
The delivery schedule is an interesting one - the USN currently gets its jets at a set unit rate of US$54.8m each as part of a four-year buy, however Boeing is currently more than a dozen jets and several months ahead of schedule, so there is flexibility in the line for USN jets to be taken out for the RAAF as long as they agree, similar to the arrangement with the USAF for our first two C-17s.
In a best case scenario, we could have 6-8 jets sitting on the ramp at Amberley 24 to 30 months after contract signature, so if something is signed in mid 07, we could have the makings of a capability by early 2010, in time for the F-111Cs to be retired on the current schedule of June 30, 2010. The F-111Gs would likely be canned as soon as practicable after a decision is made, and all the F-111Cs tranferred to 1 SQN, so 6 SQN can start the transition process.
Going on the above timetable scenario, an IOC and established training stream with 12-14 jets could be achieved by mid 2011, and FOC by mid to late 2012. Amberley is the most likely destination for the jets, although it may end up being Williamtown if the RAAF sticks with the current plan for 6 and then 1 SQNs to go over to the JSF first.
Hope this answers some. Opinions aside, anything you can add Occum?
For those with access, the
Australian Defence Business Review which comes out in the next week or so has some good coverage of this issue.
Cheers
Magoo
