Defence of Taiwan

IPCR_quad

Member
Taiwan requests long range cruise missiles from the US. IMO such missiles are urgently needed by Taiwan to deter China. Currently without aerial refueling tankers, strategic bombers, air launched cruise missiles, Taiwan's F-16 does not have the range to hit back at Kashgar airbase which is located 4,500+ km from the capital Taipei.

Taiwan says seeking long-range cruise missiles from U.S.
 
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weaponwh

Member
Taiwan requests long range cruise missiles from the US. IMO such missiles are urgently needed by Taiwan to deter China. Currently without aerial refueling tankers, strategic bombers, air launched cruise missiles, Taiwan's F-16 does not have the range to hit back at Kashgar airbase which is located 4,500+ km from the capital Taipei. Only if Taiwan can strike back at Kashgar airbase can Taiwan deter China.

Taiwan says seeking long-range cruise missiles from U.S.
not sure why taiwan need to reach kashgar at all. almost all china industry are located near coastal area. and if china invade taiwan, its main force will be near coastal region as well. it doesn't even make sense to strike target that far when there are plenty primary target near the coastal area.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
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  • #163
Taiwan requests long range cruise missiles from the US. IMO such missiles are urgently needed by Taiwan to deter China.
Agreed.

It is known that when Taiwan acquires a robust inventory of short-range and medium range cruise missiles, such counter-value offensive missile inventory will improve Taiwan’s ability to deter aggression by invasion from China.

This is because the PLA(N) and PLA will need to prepare for such invasion and if Taiwan can credibly disrupt, degrade, and interdict Chinese command and control nodes, military airfields, naval ports, and supply depots, that affect the PLA’s ability to send reinforcements, it can raise the cost of such an attack on Taiwan and avoid the need to only fight at the beach.
Currently without aerial refueling tankers, strategic bombers, air launched cruise missiles, Taiwan's F-16 does not have the range to hit back at Kashgar airbase which is located 4,500+ km from the capital Taipei.
Let me debunk your post with two points for your consideration:

One, developing, acquiring or buying from domestic sources (see link on Taiwan’s domestic missile production capability) and US made missiles will send a signal to the PLA that its command nodes and it protective IADS systems, including its radars for the HQ16, HQ-9B/HQ-9C, (i.e. S400/S300 equivalent) and HQ-19 layers in missile defence systems will not have a safe sanctuary from which the Chinese army and marines can mass and project combat power, especially during the earliest—and most vulnerable—phases of an amphibious invasion. The Chinese see missile defense as a key cog in their military ambitions. The PLAAF is accelerating the transition of its tasks from territorial air defense to both offensive and defensive operations, according to a Chinese white paper on the subject. China's air force is also improving its capabilities for strategic early warning, air strikes, and air and missile defense.

Two, it is not in US interest to allow Taiwan to develop a fleet of strategic bombers; nor does Taiwan need to waste money on such a 4,500+ km offensive strike capability. But it might make sense in the future for Biden (post-2023) to consider a F-15EX sale to Taiwan, to increase Taiwan’s air force’s strike capability — in line with the capability resident in Korea and Japan.
Only if Taiwan can strike back at Kashgar airbase can Taiwan deter China.
I hereby issue a source challenge for this irrational and illogical position; please provide a link to a reputable source that supports your statement. If not, you are engaging in speculation.
 
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IPCR_quad

Member
not sure why taiwan need to reach kashgar at all. almost all china industry are located near coastal area. and if china invade taiwan, its main force will be near coastal region as well. it doesn't even make sense to strike target that far when there are plenty primary target near the coastal area.
China's coastal air bases could be dedicated to air defense with J-10C, J-16, J-20. Airbases far from Taiwan such as Kashgar could be dedicated to strike with H-6 K/N strategic bombers which are armed with long range cruise missiles. That way, China can maximize air defense of the coast and strike Taiwan from Kashgar which is out of range of Taiwan's F-16. This is why Taiwan would need to be able to strike back to be able to deter China from striking in the first place, and right now Taiwan's F-16 don't have that capability.
 
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IPCR_quad

Member
I hereby issue a source challenge for this irrational and illogical position; please provide a link to a reputable source that supports your statement. If not, you are engaging in speculation.
To be able to hit back is deterrence from getting hit in the first place. I don't have a source for this. I consider it common sense. In any event, I have deleted my statement from my post, which is post #235.
 

IPCR_quad

Member
Two, it is not in US interest to allow Taiwan to develop a fleet of strategic bombers; nor does Taiwan need to waste money on such a 4,500+ km offensive strike capability. But it might make sense in the future for Biden (post-2023) to consider a F-15EX sale to Taiwan, to increase Taiwan’s air force’s strike capability — in line with the capacities resident in Korea and Japan.
Taiwan has far smaller budget, a fraction of that of South Korea or Japan. F-15EX is far more costly to buy and operate compared to F-16, and may not be suitable for Taiwan. What Taiwan needs are long range missiles for deterrence, not necessarily fighter jets.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
F-15EX is far more costly to buy and operate compared to F-16, and may not be suitable for Taiwan.
F-15 and F-16 perhaps the most logical pairing. Not only Taiwan can be equipped them on similar engine and system, thus support infrastructure. Also operating both of them can gain commonality supply chain with USAF and other users. Singapore uses that concept, even Indonesia try to look on that. Both of them have smaller Defense budget than Taiwan/ROC. Thus Taiwan certainly have resources to operate both type of Aircraft, if US allow it.

Just like what other members put, I also don't see the need for Taiwan to build 4500+km strategic missiles. It's wasting resources, and the same time it's also only aggravating PRC more. I don't think US also willing to support Taiwan, if ROC developed regional range strategic missile forces.

If US allow Taiwan to have Combo of F-16V and F-15EX, it's already provided formidable deterrence over Taiwan air space and over mainland coastal area near Taiwan straits. This has been talk many times in this forums, that most likely forces PLA will commit for Taiwan invasion will likely post and build up in southern China near Taiwan it self. China can't uses everything they have to Taiwan, since they have to watch their own back. Thus means potential other fronts.

For that, what Taiwan/ROC most likely need to counter is what China/PLA can bring in to Theater or near Theater around them.
 

OPSSG

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  • #168
F-15 and F-16 perhaps the most logical pairing.
This I do agree but I believe Taiwan (for risk management purposes) wants to have 2 different engine types for their fighter fleet; which is why their new 66 F-16Vs are powered by F110-GE-129 engines. Their older but upgraded 141 F-16A/Bs are powered by F100-PW-220 turbofan engines; so that if there is any problem with any engine type, not all their American made fighters would be affected.

F-15EX is far more costly to buy and operate compared to F-16, and may not be suitable for Taiwan.
Strongly disagree.

Singapore uses that concept, even Indonesia try to look on that. Both of them have smaller Defense budget than Taiwan/ROC. Thus Taiwan certainly have resources to operate both type of Aircraft, if US allow it.
Agreed — what IPCR_quad says is not supported by sound logic or reason. If tiny Singapore can afford 40 F-15SGs, Taiwan’s Air Force, which operates six E- 2Ds as AWACS, and is 3 to 4 times larger (in comparison), can easily afford a larger fleet of 44 to 60 F-15EXs (to replace an existing fighter type). The issue at hand is not affordability, the issue is whether the Americans are willing to sell given the expected reaction from China.

Any American move to sell F-15EXs in 2023 and beyond will allow Taiwan to retire their approximately 60 Dassault Mirage 2000 fighters, via planned obsolescence.

Just like what other members put, I also don't see the need for Taiwan to build 4500+km strategic missiles.
In a pure missile competition (be it short range, medium range or long range), Taiwan will lose. Every missile fired by Taiwan at the PLA will see China replying with 25 or more missiles back (in that exchange ratio, in a sustained basis over 30 to 45 days). Planning for counter value strikes, without a proper strategy to take into account the PLA’s 2nd artillery force is a mistake that idiotic fanboys seem to love — Taiwan has much more to lose in missile exchanges, for a war scenario.

Responding to the most coercive of China’s threats against Japan or Taiwan, is not difficult for the Biden administration. It gets harder if China mobilises less coercive power when threatening Taiwanese or Japanese interests. Keeping in mind that only Japan is eligible for collective defence; and collaborative defence between Japan and Taiwan still needs development. Over time, China has reclaimed land and transformed islands into military facilities that have increased the PLA(N)’s ability to project power in the South China Sea, and the waters around Taiwan’s and Japan’s respective ADIZs. This has raised the costs for the US to defend its treaty allies, like Japan and the Philippines, which undermines its traditional presence in the Indo-Pacific. For Japan and Taiwan, China’s South China Sea facilities pose a potential threat to the freedom of navigation that each relies on for trade.

IMO, not everyone needs to adopt the idiotic Iranian missile centric approach of shooting down civilian airliners in their own air space, when there are better tools available to Taiwan for sea denial, close air support and suitable platforms in the arms market to contest for air superiority over the skies of Taiwan and its ADIZ. Please see Air Power 101 for New Members and this IADS and SEAD discussion for a grounding on the concepts.

It's wasting resources, and the same time it's also only aggravating PRC more. I don't think US also willing to support Taiwan, if ROC developed regional range strategic missile forces.
Agreed.

Plus such Taiwanese moves to develop unneeded missile capabilities will unnecessarily and unintentionally worry the JMSDF (whose involvement is not only needed but expected in a defence of Taiwan scenario) — if the PLA are silly enough to conduct an amphibious invasion. Taiwan must not even appear to be a threat to Japan, if they want future Japanese help, should the need arise. And the Taiwanese know how badly their industrial base need American and Japanese help to build Taiwan’s 8 indigenous submarine (IDS). IDS construction started in Nov 2020 with covert Japanese help and its delivery to Taiwan is expected in 2025.

You can’t change the geography and the geo-political reasons why Japan’s very capable submarine fleet and rapid offensive mining capabilities will not allow any amphibious attack by the PLA(N) on Taiwan to succeed.

If US allow Taiwan to have Combo of F-16V and F-15EX, it's already provided formidable deterrence over Taiwan air space and over mainland coastal area near Taiwan straits. This has been talk many times in this forums, that most likely forces PLA will commit for Taiwan invasion will likely post and build up in southern China near Taiwan it self.
Agreed.

For that, what Taiwan/ROC most likely need to counter is what China/PLA can bring in to Theater or near Theater around them.
Cruise missiles alone are not the answer — Taiwan needs to have a strategy to cultivate informal relations with the JMSDF, USN and to de-conflict their ADIZ with Japanese and American aircraft, to slow any invasion attempt to a bloody crawl. That is real deterrence; and not some bullish!t fanboy reasoning.
 
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fireduke86

New Member
This I do agree but I believe Taiwan (for risk management purposes) wants to have 2 different engine types for their fighter fleet; which is why their new 66 F-16Vs are powered by F110-GE-129 engines. Their older F-16A/Bs are powered by F100-PW-220 turbofan engines; so that if there is any problem with any engine type, not all their American made fighters would be affected.
Sorry, unable to provide any source(s) at this time but a Taiwanese journalist whom I followed and who has been repeatedly invited to talk shows by stations friendly to both sides of the aisle in Taiwan had stated a number of times that their choice of engines for the new built F-16s was down to a matter of costs. Would that be a plausible explanation?
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #170
Sorry, unable to provide any source(s) at this time but a Taiwanese journalist whom I followed and who has been repeatedly invited to talk shows by stations friendly to both sides of the aisle in Taiwan had stated a number of times that their choice of engines for the new built F-16s was down to a matter of costs. Would that be a plausible explanation?
That is a possible collateral benefit used to sell the Taiwanese choice for a 2nd engine type — from a long-term fleet availability, it is unlikely to be more efficient to have 2 engine types — GE powered F-16Vs also have a bigger intake — which makes them non-interchangeable with the older Taiwan fleet.
  • At the time of Singapore’s Nov 2008 delivery of its first F-15SG, DSTA avoided ordering spare engines, as they were waiting for an improved F110-GE-129C that promised to provide 25% improvement in cost-per-flying hour (which was going to be ready in 1Q2009).
  • Under the latest 10-year, Direct Commercial Sale contract, Boeing worked closely to deliver a customized support services to sustain the F-15SG for the next decade.
 
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weaponwh

Member
China's coastal air bases could be dedicated to air defense with J-10C, J-16, J-20. Airbases far from Taiwan such as Kashgar could be dedicated to strike with H-6 K/N strategic bombers which are armed with long range cruise missiles. That way, China can maximize air defense of the coast and strike Taiwan from Kashgar which is out of range of Taiwan's F-16. This is why Taiwan would need to be able to strike back to be able to deter China from striking in the first place, and right now Taiwan's F-16 don't have that capability.
1. i dont think there are cruise missile have that kind of range. 2. H6 will not be in kashgar region, it take significant refueling and logistic for a round trip between kashgar/taiwan, at the min, china need hundreds H6 to attack taiwan Not dozens, kashgar just too far. also these H6 will need escort as well. 3rd few dozen or even hundred cruise missile is unlikely to deter China invading taiwan. Unless taiwan can get thousands of cruise missile, its better to spend $$ on subs/coastal and air defense and strike capability against high value target near coastal region. The point is for Taiwan to delay China, hopefully US come to its aid. China just have too big of land mass vs taiwan, and has too many targets then tawian missiles. consider US launch 50+ missile at 1 syria bases, it take several dozens if not hundreds missile just to cripple an airfield, but without any follow up strike, the destroyed runway etc will be quickly fix within few days.
honestly i think F35B suit taiwan well, but i doubt US will sell them and Taiwan may not have $$ to buy in significant order. consider PRC will likely destroy all taiwan air base within hours of invasion 1st using its missile rd1, follow by air strikes.
 

IPCR_quad

Member
1. i dont think there are cruise missile have that kind of range. 2. H6 will not be in kashgar region, it take significant refueling and logistic for a round trip between kashgar/taiwan, at the min, china need hundreds H6 to attack taiwan Not dozens, kashgar just too far. also these H6 will need escort as well. 3rd few dozen or even hundred cruise missile is unlikely to deter China invading taiwan. Unless taiwan can get thousands of cruise missile, its better to spend $$ on subs/coastal and air defense and strike capability against high value target near coastal region. The point is for Taiwan to delay China, hopefully US come to its aid. China just have too big of land mass vs taiwan, and has too many targets then tawian missiles. consider US launch 50+ missile at 1 syria bases, it take several dozens if not hundreds missile just to cripple an airfield, but without any follow up strike, the destroyed runway etc will be quickly fix within few days.
H-6 K/N carry CJ-10A cruise missiles which have range about 2,000 km. H-6 K/N can launch missiles at Taipei while they are over Wuhan, for example. Wuhan is 940 km from Taipei. Wuhan is out of range of Taiwan's F-16, not to mention Taiwan's F-16 will have to fly hundreds of km over enemy airspace heavily guarded by J-20, J-16, J-10C, Su-35S fighter jets and HQ-9B / S-400 long range AD.

A few H-6 are sufficient because they only need to attack high value strategic targets such as power plants, water filtration plants, air ports, sea ports to support naval blockade in order to induce surrender.
 
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weaponwh

Member
H-6 K/N carry CJ-10A cruise missiles which have range about 2,000 km. They can launch missiles at Taipei while they are over Wuhan, for example. Wuhan is 940 km from Taipei. Wuhan is out of range of Taiwan's F-16, not to mention they will have to fly hundreds of km over enemy airspace which are heavily guarded by J-20, J-16, J-10C, Su-35S fighter jets and H-9B / S-400 long range AD.
dont you think china will save some those missile/force for Guam, China has to consider US intervention. If china only need to worry about taiwan, they likely already invade taiwan. It was never about china vs taiwan, it was china vs US intervention. China need to consider both US and Japan, and 1st island chain targets as well as US CVBG.
 

IPCR_quad

Member
dont you think china will save some those missile/force for Guam, China has to consider US intervention. If china only need to worry about taiwan, they likely already invade taiwan. It was never about china vs taiwan, it was china vs US intervention. China need to consider both US and Japan, and 1st island chain targets as well as US CVBG.
It is highly unlikely US will intervene. The invasion is supposedly after 2050 at which point China is expected to be by far the most powerful country in the world in terms of economic, technological, military might. Even if US intervenes, DF-26 missiles which have range 5,000 km can reach Guam, and US cannot afford to lose Guam to China the way Spain lost Gibraltar to Britain, Russia lost South Sakhalin to Japan, China lost Taiwan to Japan, Germany lost Konigsberg to Russia, so it is in US's interest to not intervene because of risk of losing Guam to China.

 
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weaponwh

Member
It is highly unlikely US will intervene. The invasion is supposedly after 2050 at which point China is by far the most powerful country in the world in terms of economic, technological, military might. Even if US intervenes, DF-26 missiles which have range 5,000 km can reach Guam.

if US doesn't intervene and its 2050, taiwan dont stand chance against china then. short of making its own Nuke as deterrent.
few hundred DF26 is not gonna be enough. To disable an entire base, it require hundreds in the first salvo, dozens/hundreds on the next follow through, and it need continue follow through with various air/missile strikes. can't give breathing room for the other side to organized and fix the dmg. also there are many US base and dont forget CVBG in the region. thats why china is building muliti platforms to counter those.
 

IPCR_quad

Member
if US doesn't intervene and its 2050, taiwan dont stand chance against china then. short of making its own Nuke as deterrent.
few hundred DF26 is not gonna be enough. To disable an entire base, it require hundreds in the first salvo, dozens/hundreds on the next follow through, and it need continue follow through with various air/missile strikes. can't give breathing room for the other side to organized and fix the dmg. also there are many US base and dont forget CVBG in the region. thats why china is building muliti platforms to counter those.
By 2050 China is expected to be far more powerful than the US. If the US fights China in a war in 2050 it could go bad for the US, because the US cannot afford to lose Guam to China the way Spain lost Gibraltar to Britain, Russia lost South Sakhalin to Japan, China lost Taiwan to Japan, Germany lost Konigsberg to Russia, so it is in the US's interest to not intervene, because the US cannot afford to lose Guam to China.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
2050 China is expected to be far more powerful than the US.
May I know base on what your claim on this ? 2050 is 30 years away, despite all recents developments of China’s PLA, it's still too far fetched saying by 30 years time PLA already far more powerfull than US. How do you know US will be static is defense development ? How do you know combination of US and it's Asia-Pac allies will also be static in developing their defense ?

Hope you have solid base on claiming that.
 
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IPCR_quad

Member
May I know base on what your claim on this ? 2050 is 30 years away, despite all recents developments of China’s PLA, it's still too far fetched saying by 30 years time PLA already far more powerfull than US. How do you know US will be static is defense development ? How do you know combination of US and it's Asia-Pac allies will also be static in developing their defense ?

Hope you have solid base on claiming that.
It is widely expected China will pass the US as the biggest economy over the next decade. There are many reputable sources claiming this. Already China's economy is more than 70% of that of the US in terms of nominal GDP in USD.


The only country that has defense treaty with Taiwan is the US. Other countries won't fight for Taiwan because they don't have defense treaty with Taiwan. A few countries like Paraguay, Palau, Honduras recognize ROC as the only legitimate China but it is unlikely any of them will fight for Taiwan. The US may or may not fight for Taiwan. It all depends on public support.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It is widely expected China will pass the US as the biggest economy over the next decade. There are many reputable sources claiming this. Already China's economy is more than 70% of that of the US in terms of nominal GDP in USD.


The only country that has defense treaty with Taiwan is the US. Other countries won't fight for Taiwan because they don't have defense treaty with Taiwan. A few countries like Paraguay, Palau, Honduras recognize ROC as the only legitimate China but it is unlikely any of them will fight for Taiwan. The US may or may not fight for Taiwan. It all depends on public support.
You have been banned for trolling. I and others have had our suspicions about you and your motives. I don't believe in coincidences and you are the third troll that I have banned this morning .

You have made claims about the PRC invasion of Taiwan that do need answering. The centenary of the founding of the PRC is 1/10/2049 and the CCP has always stated that the renegade province of Taiwan will be brought back into the motherland before then, so your claims of 2050 have no truth. Xi Jinping has emphasised this since he has taken over as Helmsman. I am sure that my colleague OPSSG could provide a far more eloquent explanation.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member

Interesting that these comments came from such a senior member of the Japanese government. I'm sure it doesn't reflect official policy, but it's another example of the Japanese political class finally waking up to the reality that Japan can't just camp down within its own borders and hope the US keeps it safe everywhere else.
 
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