CANZUK Bloc

[MrConservative]

Just a reminder this is about CANZUK and not a rehash thread for Brexit.

As for a formal CANZUK trade tie up my view is that it will be in a defacto way via CPTTP deal, which all the main players including Japan as the most prominent advocate want the UK in. As for any defence tie up it will essentially be or should be about expanding the FPDA to include Canada. For those other elements of the CANZUK concept such as diplomatic, commercial, legal, educational, science and technology, reciprocal immigration standards et al of course they can and should work together for mutual benefit.

At this stage CANZUK seemingly has more conceptual push from the northern hemisphere two, than the southern hemisphere two. My view is that once the two in the north engage the two in the south in discussions, the concept will change somewhat.

 

[StobieWan]

At what point, if ever, will the UK admit it made a bad decision? Would the EU likely extract huge concessions for rejoining?

There's no way the EU would entertain the UK rejoining right now - we're seen as too politically unstable and frankly, after the ball-ache of negotiations, if I were in their shoes, I'd be politely suggesting the UK stay outside for a bit longer.

Realistically, we could rejoin the customs union which would fix a lot of the day to day heart-ache however - give it a change of government and a few years and that's achievable.

It would fix a lot of the short term misery and right now, we're I think, literally the only country in proximity to Europe that aren't.

That would tie us to EU legislation more closely than the current trade deal but we'd save FOOKIN' BEEELIONS in customs charges and the unwashed masses (like me) could go back to ordering stuff from Europe without suffering heart burn.

EDIT : point noted about thread focus.

 

[t68]

I've never been a fan of the EU in the sense that they're a large bureaucracy but, fact is, you can either be a part of it with a veto, or a participant in it's trade deals with no veto. Quick example -Norway a few years ago were panicking as the EU, with whom they traded, but were not a member of, were planning to change regs for gas heaters.

Such a change would put most of their domestic export market out of business. As a non-member, they could petition member states with aligned interests and see what they could get. As a member, they could just veto the change.

We're a non-member. So, say, as with the live shellfish export industry, worth about 380 million - there are no permits or waivers for the UK to export live shellfish to EU states. Boom. Done. That industry now has to work out where else to send their produce. Right now, we're rebranding certain types of fish or crustacean to make them sound more attractive to domestic customers.

Point being, there's no such thing as an independent nation able to set their own legislation - we're all interdependent and just as we'd stop anyone importing an electrical item which didn't make UK safety standards. we're also bound by the reverse condition for exports.

Brexit was in part founded on the belief that we'd be able to trade with the rest of the world entirely on our own terms.

I'm thinking that was not correct.

I don’t think the veto was/is the be all and end all that most people think. Cameron wielded the veto and Brussels just went around it.

@t68

Lets stay on topic please. Mods have made this request already. This is about the CANZUP proposal and the UK exit from the EU is off topic.

 

[ngatimozart]

I think that the Poms are in trouble at the moment with the double hammering of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. So they won't bring as much to the table as first thought.

Their economy has slumped, with a shrinkage of 9.9% in 2020, believed to be the worse since 1709. Their economy suffered pretty badly during the great depression of the 1930s and worse after WW2, taking decades to recover. In fact I don't think that they really fully recovered. It was only recently that they made the final payment on their Lend Lease bill from WW2.

Whilst they appear to have a couple of small increases in the last 2 quarters, the full effects of Brexit are only just starting to emerge with the impact of the hard borders and all the associated bureaucracy and costs to businesses and the economy. I would suggest that this along with Scottish and Northern Irish anger at being pulled out of the EU against their will, probably could lead to the breakup of the UK. If this does indeed come to pass, all that will be left will be the Poms and maybe the Welsh, but they too may want their independence from the Poms after 1,000 years of subjugation and assimilation.

Then what does that leave us? Well definitely no UK in CANZUK and a somewhat diminished Pommy economy. CANZ would then have to ask the question that is having the Poms in the relationship really going to be worthwhile? Given their history over the last 60 years, they appear to be fairweather friends. Also CANZ are already linked in the CTPPA and IIRC, the RCEP. Finally the Poms have to understand that they will be coming to us cap in hand, not the other way around.

UK economy suffered record annual slump in 2020

The size of the economy shrank by 9.9% in 2020 as coronavirus restrictions hit output, figures show.

www.bbc.com

 

[John Fedup]

I think that the Poms are in trouble at the moment with the double hammering of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. So they won't bring as much to the table as first thought.

Their economy has slumped, with a shrinkage of 9.9% in 2020, believed to be the worse since 1709. Their economy suffered pretty badly during the great depression of the 1930s and worse after WW2, taking decades to recover. In fact I don't think that they really fully recovered. It was only recently that they made the final payment on their Lend Lease bill from WW2.

Whilst they appear to have a couple of small increases in the last 2 quarters, the full effects of Brexit are only just starting to emerge with the impact of the hard borders and all the associated bureaucracy and costs to businesses and the economy. I would suggest that this along with Scottish and Northern Irish anger at being pulled out of the EU against their will, probably could lead to the breakup of the UK. If this does indeed come to pass, all that will be left will be the Poms and maybe the Welsh, but they too may want their independence from the Poms after 1,000 years of subjugation and assimilation.

Then what does that leave us? Well definitely no UK in CANZUK and a somewhat diminished Pommy economy. CANZ would then have to ask the question that is having the Poms in the relationship really going to be worthwhile? Given their history over the last 60 years, they appear to be fairweather friends. Also CANZ are already linked in the CTPPA and IIRC, the RCEP. Finally the Poms have to understand that they will be coming to us cap in hand, not the other way around.

UK economy suffered record annual slump in 2020

The size of the economy shrank by 9.9% in 2020 as coronavirus restrictions hit output, figures show.

www.bbc.com

You never know, in the next decade or so, Canada may be missing few provinces. CANUK may simply become AN.

 

[spoz]

Which of course is already effectively in existence, as it has been for many years. While from this side of the Tasman it might seem that the NZ government has its head in the sand wrt the PRC, and we have a few minor issues such as apples, there is no doubt that if push comes to shove they will support us, and we them, given our shared history; and even ignoring ANZUS.

 

[John Fedup]

Yes, I feel the Australia-New Zealand is much better than the US-Canada relationship since 9/11. Needless to say, the last 4 years has eroded the latter by an order of magnitude. Biden will improve things somewhat but it is never going to be what it was pre-2000.

 

[ngatimozart]

Which of course is already effectively in existence, as it has been for many years. While from this side of the Tasman it might seem that the NZ government has its head in the sand wrt the PRC, and we have a few minor issues such as apples, there is no doubt that if push comes to shove they will support us, and we them, given our shared history; and even ignoring ANZUS.

We know that you cheat in cricket and that you have that strange game of aerial pping-pong, but yep we are family and when push has come to shove we've always had each others back. Families have their squabbles but blood is thicker than water, and be it bush fires, earthquakes, floods, wars or any other strife, we are always the first to help each other. I have personal experience of being on the receiving end of that help during the Christchurch earthquakes 10 years ago, and its something that we here won't forget.

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

Also CANZ are already linked in the CTPPA and IIRC, the RCEP. Finally the Poms have to understand that they will be coming to us cap in hand, not the other way around.

Hasn't the UK applied to join the CTPPA?

 

[ngatimozart]

Hasn't the UK applied to join the CTPPA?

It has in recent days I believe. Its application has to be approved by all the other members so it only takes one member to black ball it, from what I understand.

 

[Hone C]

Hasn't the UK applied to join the CTPPA?

UK makes next step towards accession to Trans-Pacific Partnership

The UK is formally applying to join one of the world’s largest free-trade areas, deepening trade ties with some of the fastest-growing markets in the world.

www.gov.uk

UK formally applied a couple of weeks back, but has been holding informal discussions with member states for some time now.
The UK economy has taken a battering but is forecasted to achieve decent growth in 2022 off the back of a successful vaccination program and record levels of household savings.

Of more relevance to the defence aspect of CANZUK will be the release of the UK's defence review next month, which should give a steer as to the future shape of UK defence capability.

Hopefully it sets the conditions for deeper defence engagement and isn't a cost cutting exercise as the last couple have been.

 

[ngatimozart]

UK makes next step towards accession to Trans-Pacific Partnership

The UK is formally applying to join one of the world’s largest free-trade areas, deepening trade ties with some of the fastest-growing markets in the world.

www.gov.uk

UK formally applied a couple of weeks back, but has been holding informal discussions with member states for some time now.
The UK economy has taken a battering but is forecasted to achieve decent growth in 2022 off the back of a successful vaccination program and record levels of household savings.

Of more relevance to the defence aspect of CANZUK will be the release of the UK's defence review next month, which should give a steer as to the future shape of UK defence capability.

Hopefully it sets the conditions for deeper defence engagement and isn't a cost cutting exercise as the last couple have been.

Well I have to be honest. I wouldn't hold my breath. The Treasury holds a lot of influence and the UK doesn't have a budget surplus to play with. WRT to the "decent growth" don't forget that's on an economy that has suffered a 9.9% shrinkage in a financial year, the worse in 300 years. It's not something that they will bounce back from overnight, no matter how many soothsayers they consult.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Well I have to be honest. I wouldn't hold my breath. The Treasury holds a lot of influence and the UK doesn't have a budget surplus to play with.

Doesn't really matter at this stage. Interest rates are super-low, so the UK can continue to borrow at virtually no cost - in some cases we're charging gilt-holders interest than the other way around.

Also because defence spending is relatively low it means cutting it won't save anything. For now the Treasury has to borrow and look to increase taxes - they've already frozen public sector wages.

Then there's the fact that the spending increase was only announced recently when things weren't looking good, so the impact would have already been accessed and accepted. It's not like the budget increase was announced in January 2020 on the assumption everything would be peachy.

The other good news is that because it was announced as a cash figure rather than a commitment to increase it to x% of GDP, the Treasury won't be able to base it off lower GDP figures to say they've met the promise.

It's not something that they will bounce back from overnight

The Covid-19 budget crunch has affected many other countries. But so far in the UK government there seems to be an acceptance that we can't just fix the budget overnight as Cameron and Osborne thought they could. This is more akin to the debt brought on after the Second World War, which took more than half a century to pay off.

It has in recent days I believe. Its application has to be approved by all the other members so it only takes one member to black ball it, from what I understand.

I don't think anyone will block it. A few months ago reports said the vast majority of countries had agreed to the UK joining and that the UK was working on the last few.

From what I see the informal discussions are a better judge of where countries lie. If you just put your application in and then sought views from member states, Taiwan would have already put in a formal application. That it's still at the informal discussion stage suggests it's still working on getting countries to let it join.

There's still work for the UK to do, but provisionally it seems its application has been strongly welcomed.

 

[OPSSG]

I don't think anyone will block it. A few months ago reports said the vast majority of countries had agreed to the UK joining and that the UK was working on the last few.

...

There's still work for the UK to do, but provisionally it seems its application has been strongly welcomed.

That’s where you are wrong — I wish you the best of luck.

UK has hidden enemies and they will keep your country out of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership with a hidden hand.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

That’s where you are wrong — I wish you the best of luck.

UK has hidden enemies and they will keep your country out of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership with a hidden hand.

Could you elaborate? Which countries are going to block the UK joining CPTPP and why?

All CPTPP members had the opportunity to stall the UK by extending the informal discussion stage, presumably indefinitely (much like how Taiwan is still waiting to get the green light to submit its own application). It would be very odd to allow the UK to quickly move to the next stage and then block it. It's not like CPTPP holds secret votes where no one knows who has voted which way, and applicants are just told they've been "rejected". It would be fairly obvious who blocked it, either because it was public knowledge or it was leaked.

 

[ngatimozart]

Could you elaborate? Which countries are going to block the UK joining CPTPP and why?

All CPTPP members had the opportunity to stall the UK by extending the informal discussion stage, presumably indefinitely (much like how Taiwan is still waiting to get the green light to submit its own application). It would be very odd to allow the UK to quickly move to the next stage and then block it. It's not like CPTPP holds secret votes where no one knows who has voted which way, and applicants are just told they've been "rejected". It would be fairly obvious who blocked it, either because it was public knowledge or it was leaked.

OPSSG is right. There are hidden enemies of the UK within the CPTTP who areN biding their time waiting for the right moment. Some nations have long memories and for whatever reason, they will block the UK. So presuming UK acceptance is not only arrogant on the part of the Poms, but rather premature.

BTW Taiwan is a totally different case to the UK and isn't a valid comparison.

 

[OPSSG]

@Musashi_kenshin,

1. May I suggest reading this article to identify UK interests and friend-anmies? Japan leads the CPTTP group with its own agenda — Japan is obsessed with not saying no, but their yes is equally problematic.

2. Ratification has been delayed due to domestic political issues in Chile, Peru, and Malaysia. All three are bogged down with internal issues, and it appears that Brunei will take its lead from Malaysia.

3. The four hold-outs will oppose an expansion to include UK in the 2021 to 2025 period. A weak Japanese, yes to the idea of expansion and then leaving it to members to decide is actually a no; and the Japanese will pass the buck to the next CPTTP chair, Mexico in 2021. Mexico will join the 4 holdouts in keeping UK out for that year.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

OPSSG is right. There are hidden enemies of the UK within the CPTTP who areN biding their time waiting for the right moment. Some nations have long memories and for whatever reason, they will block the UK.

I'd still like to know what countries we're talking about. Otherwise it's very difficult for me to present evidence that their support may be real, not least because the UK maintains fairly good relations with pretty much all CPTPP members (I have no idea about UK-Peru relations but haven't heard they're particularly bad, and I'm not even sure if signatories that haven't ratified get a vote).

So presuming UK acceptance is not only arrogant on the part of the Poms, but rather premature.

No one has said with certainty the UK will be accepted. However, I see no evidence to show it's a foregone conclusion that the UK will be blocked either. My own interpretation is that - assuming the CPTPP commission starts the accession process sometime this year - the UK has received provisional approval from member states to join.

The question moving onwards would then be whether the UK would be willing to accept the necessary requirements of CPTPP membership as it may be necessary to make economic concessions. That might give an existing member the opportunity to make some impossible demands, but I think the ability to walk away with more trade and not less would mean that's unlikely. I think the UK will be required to make concessions but that they will be reasonable in the circumstances.

BTW Taiwan is a totally different case to the UK and isn't a valid comparison.

I'm not so sure. From where I stand I think it's a useful comparison because it shows how the application system works.

May I suggest reading this article to identify UK interests and friend-anmies? Japan leads the group with its own agenda — Japan is obsessed with not saying no, but their yes is equally problematic.

What Japan would want from UK membership of CPTPP is up for discussion. But they're certainly not a "hidden enemy", nor do they have any beef with the UK. They've been extremely receptive to the Royal Navy's planned deployment to Asia in the summer. They're not going to block UK joining CPTPP for a petty or short-sighted reason if they want us to re-engage with the Pacific (which they do).

As I noted above, tough negotiations during accession talks could mean the UK's application took a long time to deal with or could even be rejected. However, that's not because there are "hidden enemies". It would just be hard-headed negotiations of the sort that always take place in trade talks.

No doubt we will see what happens, but I'm not expecting any final result until 2023 or 2024. It could take even longer if London gets obstinate and talks get deadlocked.

 

[OPSSG]

@Musashi_kenshin,

Singapore will be the CPTTP chair in 2022; but will not be able to help UK at that time — our focus will be to get Brunei and Malaysia to ratify — the other focus in 2022 is to get Biden to rejoin (far more important than UK joining). UK does not fit well into the grouping as it is not located in the Pacific and it is in the interest of Malaysia/Brunei and those in the Americas to keep UK out of the CPTTP. When Vietnam assumes the chair in 2026, will we see real urgency to add UK (as it is in Vietnam’s interest to add UK).

CPTPP remains the centerpiece of any future US reengagement and Japan will see to it that it’s terms are not supplanted by a wholly new framework — this means no chance for London to get obstinate or for talks to get deadlocked is zero— it’s literally, take it or leave it. The CPTTP terms for new members are take it or leave it (with further concessions to US the only exception).

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

UK does not fit well into the grouping as it is not located in the Pacific and it is in the interest of Malaysia/Brunei and those in the Americas to keep UK out of the CPTTP.

I'm grateful for you to add some country details, as it helps greatly.

I'm still not sure why those countries would be vetoing the UK joining. It is not situated in the Pacific but it has the fig-leaf of territory (Pitcairn Islands) to avoid any precedents being set. More importantly it is another major world economy (alongside Japan). Just because the UK mainland isn't in Asia doesn't mean there couldn't be increased trade. We can all see how much trade China does even with countries on the other side of the world, and if friction with EU trade continues UK companies will look to work more closely with other countries.

The UK would also be the first permanent member of the UNSC in the organisation. CPTPP isn't a political union but UK membership could give existing partners greater ability to lobby the UK on foreign policy and defence matters. That's nothing to be sneezed at.

Whilst taking into account all of the above, the UK is not a current/potential superpower, nor does it see a need to assert control over other countries for its own security. It also does not have any particularly heavily-subsidised or super competitive manufacturing/agricultural bases that could take away jobs from CPTPP members. That makes the prospect of UK membership relatively benign.

The UK’s bid to join CPTPP is generating momentum - Policy Exchange

Away from the fraught endgame of the Brexit negotiations, there has been positive news in UK trade in the last few weeks. International Trade Secretary Liz Truss added to the growing portfolio of UK trade agreements by securing a deal with Mexico on 15 December, following similar deals with...

policyexchange.org.uk

This article from December pointed out that at least 7 of the 11 CPTPP members supported the UK joining, which suggested that at least some of American states were included.

It is correct that the UK is not currently negotiating trade deals with Malaysia and Brunei. However, the UK has pretty strong relations with Brunei, and my understanding that these were expected to continue as we left the EU.

Ties with Malaysia may not be quite as robust, but I've only seen positive news about further engagement with London and no obvious political or economic rivalry. Also since the UK has left the EU there would be scope to discuss renewed palm oil imports, with the UK previously having to follow the EU ban.

In short, even if the UK was not the most optimal new member for CPTPP, it would be a benefit. There's no hard cap on the number of people states that can be in CPTPP, nor does the accession process for one country stop others from joining at the same time.

When Vietnam assumes the chair in 2026, will we see real urgency to add UK (as it is in Vietnam’s interest to add UK).

If it took until 2026 then so be it, but I think it could be sooner than that, not least with Japan's open support for the UK joining and it taking over leadership this year.

CPTPP remains the centerpiece of any future US reengagement and Japan will see to it that it’s terms are not supplanted by a wholly new framework.... The CPTTP terms for new members are take it or leave it (with further concessions to US the only exception).

In that case I think the chances of UK membership are better than I originally thought, because either the UK will agree to CPTPP's position or it won't. If there aren't negotiations as such, rather a set of things to agree to, it makes the process much simpler. Given that the UK has already got FTAs agreed with the majority of CPTPP members and there being a reasonable chance of getting them agreed with Australia and New Zealand in the next few years (Boris will want more political wins and won't worry about giving some concessions), the distance between the UK and CPTPP could end up being fairly low irrespective of the application to join.