CANZUK Bloc

[ngatimozart]

There's a move afoot to form a CANZUK Trading Bloc that if it came to fruition would make it the third largest economy behind the US and the PRC and ahead of the EU. The arguments in support include that all 4 nations have the same language, Head of State, similar legal systems and Parliamentary systems. The main argument against is the tyranny of distance between the northern and southern partners. However in both Australia's and NZ's advantage such a trading bloc would reduce our dependence upon the PRC as a trading partner.

There would / should also be a military component to this with the formation of a strong military component because 3 of the nations are Pacific nations, although Canada sometimes doesn't think that it is. All of the nations militaries are well used to working together and have a common military heritage. Whilst I have some doubts about this, I still think that it is something well worth looking at.

Most Read of 2021: The Rise of a CANZUK Trading Bloc - Australian Institute of International Affairs

The rise of the CANZUK concept coincides with recent global events such as Brexit and the protectionist Buy America policy. Political elites from potential member states are far from dismissing the concept, which might bring into being a powerful economic bloc rivalling the European Union...

www.internationalaffairs.org.au

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

CANZUK is an interesting concept... and could work...

I am neither for nor against it just yet. However if they boost the trade with in the CANZUK block to relieve us from the PRC sure... The thing is there are people out there that want it to be more...

The core idea is free trade and freedom of movement. Free trade, sure no issues if we can grow those... no problem... The freedom of movement I am not sure for NZ on that one. It would be basically a one way stream of our younger talent flowing out and us getting all the retirees.... (one of the groups I follow on reddit most say they want to retire here... :-/ ) giving us another brain drain... The want the freedom of movement to be based on the TTTA that NZ and Aussie have.

The "tyranny of distance" never stopped us in the past when the UK was New Zealand biggest trading partner before the UK joined the EU. If we could do it back then why not now?

Others want much tighter military ties, (especially Naval) which sure to a certain point as long as if it doesn't draw us in to a position we don't want to be in caused by one of the other members.

With the UK applying to join the "Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership" it is the start of the free trade deals. Now that Brexit has happened, the UK is in talks with both Aussie, NZ, and Canada for separate free trade deals as well as applying to joining the CPTPP... The US is looking at rejoining this block as well.. and that will change a few things if they do...

If it ever does happen it won't happen with a single document, but over a multitude of them over period of time, starting with free trade as we are... then the freedom of movement, the loosen more on trade... then slowly tighten military ties etc... and before we know it blam CANZUK...

The Trick is knowing when to stop... because I certainly don't want it to become like the EU...

However at this point I am neither for... nor against the idea... it is an interesting concept.

 

[OPSSG]

CANZUK is an interesting concept... and could work...

I think this will not work — but the onus is not on me to demonstrate that it will not work (too tiring to explain). Time will ensure this little idea fades into irrelevance.

 

[FoxtrotRomeo999]

What's in it for each nation? Is it at the expense of other relationships? What about other Commonwealth countries? What about non-Commonwealth countries with similar political views? Looking at Defence, it probably wouldn't change much - our combined Defence footprint is still "medium" (though the UK currently has some nukes and delivery systems).

The idea is circulating in some circles amongst the CANZUK nations. One author writes CANZUK is "a conduit for hardline Brexiteers to indulge in their imperial fantasies."

 

[ngatimozart]

What's in it for each nation? Is it at the expense of other relationships? What about other Commonwealth countries? What about non-Commonwealth countries with similar political views? Looking at Defence, it probably wouldn't change much - our combined Defence footprint is still "medium" (though the UK currently has some nukes and delivery systems).

The idea is circulating in some circles amongst the CANZUK nations. One author writes CANZUK is "a conduit for hardline Brexiteers to indulge in their imperial fantasies."

Well I agree with the quote and I remember reading something a while back that Brexit was an English Thatcherite plot inflicted upon the country by pollies trying to make a name for themselves. Can't remember where I read it, but if you look at the referendum results it was only in England and Wales that the majority voted for Brexit. The quote is one big concern that I do have, in that the poms will think that they are imperial masters again and start acting like that. It doesn't take much for them to get visions of imperial glory.

 

[Arclighy]

The UK and Canada have strong support for CANZUK in their Conservative parties. I can't find too much support for it in Australia or New Zealand political circles, although Senator Patterson, Liberal for Victoria, is a very strong proponent. Australia and NZ share a part of the world where many of our most important trade and other partners might just raise an eyebrow or two at this obviously Anglo centric club. I really can't see membership of a grouping such as CANZUK being welcomed by our regional friends. It would be a very retrograde step.

 

[FoxtrotRomeo999]

The Empire strikes back .... but ....

1. Following BrExit, UK could be unstable, split or decline economically. Probably still attractive as a market but not as a main focus.
2. Canada is tightly tied to the USA economically (OK, and militarily), so CANZUK will never be their main focus.
3. ANZ are working with partners all around the globe and both rely on chiefly USA for Defence assistance (OK, EU France also has local assets and commitment), so CANZUK would not be our main focus.

 

[Gracie1234]

I think this is a more modern agreement and the focus is not just on trade with each other, I would say that is a minor part, but would provide an increase in shared trade with the bloc and others. That is the difference, as a group they can negotiate better terms of trade with others than individually. They would align on responses to common issues affecting them, think cyberattack or political pressure placed on one country but not the other as is what is happening with Australia. They could provide a common response, together they would be stronger than as individuals. That is the benefit of the grouping. There is already a large amount of alignment this would just increase it. Freedom of movement is important, but would likely be more from the UK to other countries than the other way round, I do not see an issue with this as we are all increasing our population through immigration. I see there would be minor increases in trade between the member states, that is a secondary benefit.
Benefits for the individuals that would be higher than what I just mentioned for the group.
UK- increased influence in the world and to make up for some of what was lost when they left Europe. Also provides them with more flexibility to respond and they can learn to operate in Asia from Aus and NZ. Politically a good move for their home audience.
Canada- they need to diversify away from the USA, they are far too dependant. The current decisions from Biden demonstrated that this week. Aus and NZ can help them learn to operate in the Pacific, which is where most of the future economic growth is for the next century
Australia- increased strategic weight to support their approach in Asia
NZ- increased protection and influence all round
What could be the cons, well any grouping like this will require compromise. Each member well need to respond to events that they may not want to respond to.
For me the pros outweigh the cons. I feel as more pressure on the global order is felt then the likelihood of this will increase.

 

[John Fedup]

The UK and Canada have strong support for CANZUK in their Conservative parties. I can't find too much support for it in Australia or New Zealand political circles, although Senator Patterson, Liberal for Victoria, is a very strong proponent. Australia and NZ share a part of the world where many of our most important trade and other partners might just raise an eyebrow or two at this obviously Anglo centric club. I really can't see membership of a grouping such as CANZUK being welcomed by our regional friends. It would be a very retrograde step.

Frankly I haven’t seen much about this issue in Canada (haven’t really looked though). As for the electorate, probably not on the radar ( along with most other issues that don’t involve free “stuff”).

 

[MrConservative]

I doubt very much there is the appetite for any further formal defence or foreign affairs alignment, the FVEYS already exist in that space and all four have for over 100 years have been military partners. As people have pointed out that may backfire.

From the NZ perspective and the other nations as I understand it after conversations where one or two who are interested in the topic, the CANZUK idea has a fair bit to do with some non sexy stuff like commercial, technical and legal alignment and cooperation, including trade, environmental issues, priority immigration and reciprocal qualifications in tertiary education alignment across all four nations, where as at present it is only complete alignment between one or two other countries on a particular area, though that said all are very similar. That might not sound like much of a big deal but to business and employers it is. There is also the diplomatic side whereby as primarily English speaking multi-cultural liberal democracies their world view is virtually united on most global matters and would come together "on occasions when mutually agreed" as a single voice of influence.

I don't think that there is any risk 50 years on to the UK thinking that they will automatically will become "top dog" or will attempt to. That is a simplistic fantasy of both the ardent supporters in the UK and those who think it will be some kind of British Empire 2.0 or alternative EU who are against it. NZ, OZ and Canada are very different and proudly independent places to what they were 50 years ago and would bluntly put an end such pretensions as the combined weight of their economic and resource critical mass is greater.

 

[Pusser Tas]

This is an interesting idea. The main problem (as I see it) will be to stop the Poms from attempting to exercise control over it's functions to the benefit of the UK.

 

[MrConservative]

Of course I would want to see the UK in particular sorting itself out with respect to Covid-19 before some of the better alignment ideas like educational, environmental and business co-operation are even discussed.

Defence and foreign policy co-operation - Yes - under the current remits - but not an all formal all sing from the same song sheet approach and definitely no nonsense like currency alignment or entrenchment of regulations like the EU which is unlikely anyway the way the EU is panning out and goes against the national psyche of Aussies, Kiwi's and Cannucks who are a bit like herding cats.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

There's a move afoot to form a CANZUK Trading Bloc.... However in both Australia's and NZ's advantage such a trading bloc would reduce our dependence upon the PRC as a trading partner.

If there's a real concern over over-reliance on China for trade to the extent that something needs to be done about it, the best thing to do is strongly support the UK whilst we're navigating the CPTPP application process and pass up the opportunities to get inconsequential trade concessions as political wins. The C, A and NZ of CANZUK are already in it, so that would be an even larger trading bloc than CANZUK would be.

(Also if CANZ wanted to keep China out they could probably ask us to block the application after we've joined - if it such an application ever comes - and avoid retaliation from Beijing.)

There would / should also be a military component to this.... Whilst I have some doubts about this, I still think that it is something well worth looking at.

It's worth looking at, but given New Zealand and Canada's defence posture is quite defensive I'm not sure how realistic it would be other than a symbolic commitment to work together. Would probably require tougher foreign policies in Wellington and Ottawa to become something effective.

This is an interesting idea. The main problem (as I see it) will be to stop the Poms from attempting to exercise control over it's functions to the benefit of the UK.

I'm not really sure that's fair given that the UK isn't really pushing CANZUK, bar occasionally talking about it in a symbolic sort of way. If we had any ulterior motives we'd probably be talking it up as a real thing. When I've heard it mentioned in the UK it's more about free trade and easier ability to move/work in other countries.

Of course I would want to see the UK in particular sorting itself out with respect to Covid-19

No worries there, we stole a march on vaccine procurement compared to most countries.

 

[hauritz]

This is an interesting idea. The main problem (as I see it) will be to stop the Poms from attempting to exercise control over it's functions to the benefit of the UK.

Actually when you crunch the numbers the UK might not be as dominate at you think.
Population wise they are evenly matched with about 65 million Poms vs 65 million Aussies, Canucks and Kiwis.
When you look at the economies the combined wealth of the colonials actually exceeds the UK.

 

[swerve]

2019: millions
Australia 25.36
Canada 37.59
NZ 4.92
Total 67.87

UK 66.65

So very slightly more than the UK, & both Australia & Canada have higher GDP per capita.

 

[Feanor]

There's a move afoot to form a CANZUK Trading Bloc that if it came to fruition would make it the third largest economy behind the US and the PRC and ahead of the EU.

How? Last I checked the EU's combined GDP is ~18 trillion as of 2019, if you subtraced the UK, that's still ~15 trillion. CANZUK combined doesn't even reach 10 trillion...

 

[John Fedup]

2019: millions
Australia 25.36
Canada 37.59
NZ 4.92
Total 67.87

UK 66.65

So very slightly more than the UK, & both Australia & Canada have higher GDP per capita.

Junior is doing his best to lower our GDP per capital. Then there is his stellar performance on the debt. Both Canada and the UK are facing much higher economic consequences from COVID. The TPP agreement needs NZ, Australia, and Canada’s attention more than another trade agreement.

 

[swerve]

How? Last I checked the EU's combined GDP is ~18 trillion as of 2019, if you subtraced the UK, that's still ~15 trillion. CANZUK combined doesn't even reach 10 trillion...

Indeed.

According to the World Bank's 2019 estimates, CANZUK had a smaller combined nominal GDP in 2019 than Germany & France combined, let alone the EU as a whole. At PPP, the World Bank puts it at marginally more than Germany & Spain combined, or significantly less than either Germany & France or Germany & Italy: just under a third of the EU.

 

[hauritz]

How? Last I checked the EU's combined GDP is ~18 trillion as of 2019, if you subtraced the UK, that's still ~15 trillion. CANZUK combined doesn't even reach 10 trillion...

Simply comparing GDP doesn't tell the whole story.
You should also consider other things like natural resources, food security, economic diversity, wealth distribution, education, inflation, debt, political stability, infrastructure and other drivers of the economy.

 

[Feanor]

Simply comparing GDP doesn't tell the whole story.
You should also consider other things like natural resources, food security, economic diversity, wealth distribution, education, inflation, debt, political stability, infrastructure and other drivers of the economy.

What does that have to do with anything I said? I was responding to a specific statement regarding the size of their economies. It was a simple factual clarification. Of course there are many other factors involved when evaluating the economic issues of a trading bloc, and even more so when the security dimension factors in.