AUKUS

[IHFP]

Nothing comes cheap in life (except for the Canucks who always look for the ‘cheap’ option that eventually ends up costing twice as much in the end).

*deep breath* As a “Canuck” I really wanted to get defensive, but I’m having a hard time saying your entirely wrong.

- Take a look at how Canada went about aquiring our “Cyclone” replacement (Sikorsky CH-148 Cyclone Helicopter).
- The weird process of ordering our “F-35”’s. *Sorry “Saab”, perhaps we’ll get back to you with respect to the “A26”.*

We understand that AU has allot to think about in the coming years and decades with respect to Geo-politics, and its nice to see a respected Allie investing in defence that will provide future protection.

 

[John Newman]

*deep breath* As a “Canuck” I really wanted to get defensive, but I’m having a hard time saying your entirely wrong.

- Take a look at how Canada went about aquiring our “Cyclone” replacement (Sikorsky CH-148 Cyclone Helicopter).
- The weird process of ordering our “F-35”’s. *Sorry “Saab”, perhaps we’ll get back to you with respect to the “A26”.*

We understand that AU has allot to think about in the coming years and decades with respect to Geo-politics, and its nice to see a respected Allie investing in defence that will provide future protection.

Mate, glad you didn’t get defensive/triggered, nothing personal, ok?

Over the years I’ve known, and liked, plenty of Canucks here in Oz, in fact one was my Daughter’s Ice Hockey coach 20ish years ago.

Yes I know ‘shock horror!’ Oz isn’t the 99% desert and 1% green with all of us clinging to the edges of the continent that most outside of Oz wrongly believe.

We do have reasonable amounts of snow in winter, in the Alpine regions, and all year round ice rinks too!

Unfortunately Canuck politics is the problem, no bipartisan approach to Defence, plus of course you have your big powerful southern neighbour to look to for your defence (very much like our Kiwi cousins across the ditch, here in Oz we like our cousins across the ditch, personally I much prefer Kiwi women who I’ve had a lot of fun with, but Kiwi Governments don’t really take Defence as serious as they should either).

Anyway, I digress....

Did we waste money on the Attack class program? Yes and no is the answer, should we have gone nuclear from the start? Yes but...

The ‘but’ is the politics of going nuclear wasn’t in place at the time.

In general terms the ‘Left’ of politics in Oz is very anti-nuclear, and the ‘Right’ of politics is generally more pro nuclear.

Nuclear power in Australia - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

As you can see by the opinion polls in the above link, 2/3rds of Left voters are anti nuclear (the far Left is even stronger anti), and it’s pretty much the opposite of Right voters.

AUKUS only happened because the Government of the day was the LNP Right that pushed the button to dump the French and create the AUKUS agreement.

In effect the ALP Left opposition was wedged by the LNP Right government, one only has to watch the various interviews with the ALP opposition at the time of the announcement 18mths or so ago, their body language wasn’t comfortable, but they went along with the LNP government decision, it kept the bipartisan approach to defence solid.

Since then we’ve swapped out a Right LNP Government for a Left ALP Government, and they were there for the recent announcement,

Bipartisan defence, started by the Right, followed through by the Left.

Future changes of Government should see AUKUS continue and succeed too.

 

[Vivendi]

I hope Canada will become part of AUKUS, together with NZ -- it would help strengthen the Western world. As pointed out by NZ, AUKUS has also a non-nuclear pillar, and NZ/CAN should definitely consider that.

For submarines, I am hoping somebody soon have the guts to go for something really revolutionary, like: Euronaval: Naval Group unveils the SMX31E new full electric "Concept Submarine" - Naval News

Currently there are massive investments into things like solid-state batteries for electrical cars and mobile phones. I am guessing that within 10 years or so, these will be commercialized and the price will rapidly fall. If somebody had the guts to start developing a 100% electrical submarine today, by the time that sub would be ready to launch (at least 20 years from now) the batteries available would be safe, have very high power density, and not too expensive. You could probably build, say, a 5000-ton submarine with a massive loadout and 60-90 days missions possible much cheaper than a nuke sub. The main disadvantage compared to a nuke sub would be that top speed would be much lower. However no nuclears plants, no diesel engines, and no Li-Io batteries. Solid-state batteries in the labs have already reached 1000wh/litre Xiaomi Reveals Solid State Battery Tech, Boasting 1000Wh/L Energy Density, Improved Safety and Performance - Gizmochina
High-voltage systems are more effective, and should of course be used, perhaps 900 V or even 1000V:

The higher voltage creates a lower current, which reduces heat - always a good thing when it comes to EV batteries, as battery cooling systems can suck up power. Lower current also means charging cables can be thinner and less cumbersome, and certain electrical components in the car can also be thinner and smaller, making the car more lightweight and efficient.

400v vs 800v Charging - What’s the Difference? Electric Car Battery Voltage Explained | CarsGuide

 

[John Newman]

I hope Canada will become part of AUKUS, together with NZ -- it would help strengthen the Western world. As pointed out by NZ, AUKUS has also a non-nuclear pillar, and NZ/CAN should definitely consider that.

For submarines, I am hoping somebody soon have the guts to go for something really revolutionary, like: Euronaval: Naval Group unveils the SMX31E new full electric "Concept Submarine" - Naval News

Currently there are massive investments into things like solid-state batteries for electrical cars and mobile phones. I am guessing that within 10 years or so, these will be commercialized and the price will rapidly fall. If somebody had the guts to start developing a 100% electrical submarine today, by the time that sub would be ready to launch (at least 20 years from now) the batteries available would be safe, have very high power density, and not too expensive. You could probably build, say, a 5000-ton submarine with a massive loadout and 60-90 days missions possible much cheaper than a nuke sub. The main disadvantage compared to a nuke sub would be that top speed would be much lower. However no nuclears plants, no diesel engines, and no Li-Io batteries. Solid-state batteries in the labs have already reached 1000wh/litre Xiaomi Reveals Solid State Battery Tech, Boasting 1000Wh/L Energy Density, Improved Safety and Performance - Gizmochina
High-voltage systems are more effective, and should of course be used, perhaps 900 V or even 1000V:

400v vs 800v Charging - What’s the Difference? Electric Car Battery Voltage Explained | CarsGuide

Why would Australia, UK and US ever want Canada and NZ to become part of AUKUS? Sorry, I don’t get it.

Nothing personal against our Canuck and Kiwi cousins, but both are politically unreliable in regard to Defence and even more so when it comes to Defence spending.

From an Australian perspective I don’t see Canada ever being very relevant in our part of the world (despite them having a Pacific coastline).

As for NZ, again why? There would have to be some big changes to Defence spending and policy too.

If they wanted in on AUKUS, my first question would be: “will you welcome port visits by AUKUS members SSNs into NZ?”, The answer would of course be “no”, my reply would be “ok, get stuffed!”.

Sorry, unless there are big changes in Canada and NZ, they would end up just being a distraction.

Thanks, but no thanks.

 

[ngatimozart]

Clearly getting out of the deal, and settling up, with the Froggies isn’t cheap.

But.... that’s the price you pay for moving on from a fleet of conventional subs to a fleet of nuclear subs, which are more appropriate for Australia’s strategic circumstances.

Nothing comes cheap in life (except for the Canucks who always look for the ‘cheap’ option that eventually ends up costing twice as much in the end).

No point in hand wringing or crying over spilt milk, we just move on.

But not all is lost either, investments in the combat system will transition over to the SSN AUKUS fleet, and possibly other systems too.

Anyway, past is past.

The froggies are easily excitable taking things personally, plus they get rather emotional about things. Rioting is a national sport, especially there at the moment because Macron is increasing the pension age from 62 to 64.

 

[At lakes]

Why would Australia, UK and US ever want Canada and NZ to become part of AUKUS? Sorry, I don’t get it.

Nothing personal against our Canuck and Kiwi cousins, but both are politically unreliable in regard to Defence and even more so when it comes to Defence spending.

From an Australian perspective I don’t see Canada ever being very relevant in our part of the world (despite them having a Pacific coastline).

As for NZ, again why? There would have to be some big changes to Defence spending and policy too.

If they wanted in on AUKUS, my first question would be: “will you welcome port visits by AUKUS members SSNs into NZ?”, The answer would of course be “no”, my reply would be “ok, get stuffed!”.

Sorry, unless there are big changes in Canada and NZ, they would end up just being a distraction.

Thanks, but no thanks.

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

Well the Americans think that NZ has something to offer they invited NZ to have a chat about joining the AUKUS 2nd tier , what ever that is.
in things like quantum computing

 

[Volkodav]

Mate, glad you didn’t get defensive/triggered, nothing personal, ok?

Over the years I’ve known, and liked, plenty of Canucks here in Oz, in fact one was my Daughter’s Ice Hockey coach 20ish years ago.

Yes I know ‘shock horror!’ Oz isn’t the 99% desert and 1% green with all of us clinging to the edges of the continent that most outside of Oz wrongly believe.

We do have reasonable amounts of snow in winter, in the Alpine regions, and all year round ice rinks too!

Unfortunately Canuck politics is the problem, no bipartisan approach to Defence, plus of course you have your big powerful southern neighbour to look to for your defence (very much like our Kiwi cousins across the ditch, here in Oz we like our cousins across the ditch, personally I much prefer Kiwi women who I’ve had a lot of fun with, but Kiwi Governments don’t really take Defence as serious as they should either).

Anyway, I digress....

Did we waste money on the Attack class program? Yes and no is the answer, should we have gone nuclear from the start? Yes but...

The ‘but’ is the politics of going nuclear wasn’t in place at the time.

In general terms the ‘Left’ of politics in Oz is very anti-nuclear, and the ‘Right’ of politics is generally more pro nuclear.

Nuclear power in Australia - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

As you can see by the opinion polls in the above link, 2/3rds of Left voters are anti nuclear (the far Left is even stronger anti), and it’s pretty much the opposite of Right voters.

AUKUS only happened because the Government of the day was the LNP Right that pushed the button to dump the French and create the AUKUS agreement.

In effect the ALP Left opposition was wedged by the LNP Right government, one only has to watch the various interviews with the ALP opposition at the time of the announcement 18mths or so ago, their body language wasn’t comfortable, but they went along with the LNP government decision, it kept the bipartisan approach to defence solid.

Since then we’ve swapped out a Right LNP Government for a Left ALP Government, and they were there for the recent announcement,

Bipartisan defence, started by the Right, followed through by the Left.

Future changes of Government should see AUKUS continue and succeed too.

Pretty much agree accept you left out the word centre from both left and right. Australia is fortunate in that both our major parties are, by global standards, liberal centrist, even our extreme left and right minor parties are quite moderate compared to global norms.

While we have some a grade idiots at the fringes, there are very few ideological zealots of either extreme here.

I read something years ago about Whitlam actually being pro nuclear power. Part of the loans affair was apparently to fund a national power grid based on nuclear power. The seeds of the anti nuclear movement were actually the Soviet sponsored "anti war" movement, re purposed to undermine the the US nuclear umbrella.

The idiocy is that the looney left, with all their anti-war, anti-nuclear sentiment, was actually sponsored for decades by a totalitarian, nuclear power.

 

[swerve]

Oz isn’t the 99% desert and 1% green with all of us clinging to the edges of the continent that most outside of Oz wrongly believe.

We do have reasonable amounts of snow in winter, in the Alpine regions, and all year round ice rinks too!

Yeah. My sole, unhappy, experience of snowboarding was at Perisher. I went back to skiing next day.

Now, back to the topic. Sorry for the digression.

 

[IHFP]

I hope Canada will become part of AUKUS, together with NZ -- it would help strengthen the Western world. As pointed out by NZ, AUKUS has also a non-nuclear pillar, and NZ/CAN should definitely consider that.

For submarines, I am hoping somebody soon have the guts to go for something really revolutionary, like: Euronaval: Naval Group unveils the SMX31E new full electric "Concept Submarine" - Naval News

Currently there are massive investments into things like solid-state batteries for electrical cars and mobile phones. I am guessing that within 10 years or so, these will be commercialized and the price will rapidly fall. If somebody had the guts to start developing a 100% electrical submarine today, by the time that sub would be ready to launch (at least 20 years from now) the batteries available would be safe, have very high power density, and not too expensive. You could probably build, say, a 5000-ton submarine with a massive loadout and 60-90 days missions possible much cheaper than a nuke sub. The main disadvantage compared to a nuke sub would be that top speed would be much lower. However no nuclears plants, no diesel engines, and no Li-Io batteries. Solid-state batteries in the labs have already reached 1000wh/litre Xiaomi Reveals Solid State Battery Tech, Boasting 1000Wh/L Energy Density, Improved Safety and Performance - Gizmochina
High-voltage systems are more effective, and should of course be used, perhaps 900 V or even 1000V:

400v vs 800v Charging - What’s the Difference? Electric Car Battery Voltage Explained | CarsGuide

This is a phenomenal post, and in my opinion deserves its own thread, in parallel for AUKUS contingent allies.

As many of you know for a plethora of reasons some countries will not procure SSN. These reasons include per-existing legislation, popular anti-nuclear sentiment, restricted finances, and international politics. But these conditions to not negate the need, and benefits that come from a functioning, contemporary, well equipped navy. As such AUKUS friendly nations may need to examine SSK alternatives.

There has been repeated rhetoric, in Canada that AUKUS is a deal for nuclear submarines. This is unfortunate because it is strategically short sighted at best. AUKUS is a far more than nuclear submarines, its a message to probem states that draws a line on the globe from Alaska to Darwin. In my opinion I would like to see that line get pushed North+West as fast as possible through, good will, democratic negotiation, and basic self preservation.

 

[seaspear]

There have been quite a few concept submarines put out there , often suggesting it needs a lot of money to develop so will wait to see if France considers this good value to invest in

 

[Redlands18]

There have been quite a few concept submarines put out there , often suggesting it needs a lot of money to develop so will wait to see if France considers this good value to invest in

France is unique in being the only country that designs and exports SSKs but no longer operates them themselves, the MN being an all-nuke fleet. They have been very successful at selling SSKs, the Daphne, Agosta and Scorpene designs all being very successful on the export market.

 

[hauritz]

The strategic problems faced by Australia now will be greatly exacerbated by the 2050s.

I look at countries like Indonesia that are well on the way to becoming economic superpowers in a few decades. In my mind they may well supplant China as Australia’s major rival in this region.

Australia’s relations with Indonesia have always been a little prickly and I can’t see that changing.

Then of course you have India. Already a nuclear power it is just about to supplant China as the most populous nation in the world. It also doesn’t have the demographic problems China has.

It is estimated that by the 2050s India and Indonesia will be the third and fourth most powerful economies in the world. This could be beneficial to Australia economically but it will also come with some massive security issues with the world’s four largest economic powers jockeying for more influence in our region.

You better believe that Australia needs AUKUS.

 

[Stampede]

The strategic problems faced by Australia now will be greatly exacerbated by the 2050s.

I look at countries like Indonesia that are well on the way to becoming economic superpowers in a few decades. In my mind they may well supplant China as Australia’s major rival in this region.

Australia’s relations with Indonesia have always been a little prickly and I can’t see that changing.

Then of course you have India. Already a nuclear power it is just about to supplant China as the most populous nation in the world. It also doesn’t have the demographic problems China has.

It is estimated that by the 2050s India and Indonesia will be the third and fourth most powerful economies in the world. This could be beneficial to Australia economically but it will also come with some massive security issues with the world’s four largest economic powers jockeying for more influence in our region.

You better believe that Australia needs AUKUS.

I am glad you mentioned Indonesia and the broad theme of a changing world in the decades to come.
How does our very near neighbour view and fit into this picture.
Is it friend or foe or is there a space in the middle.
Does AUKUS force Indonesia's hand.

Cheers S

 

[hauritz]

We are heading for a multipolar world. Something we haven't experienced since WW2. Everything will become exponentially more complex for a medium size power like Australia. We have currently aligned ourselves with a fading superpower and an old colonial power both of which could well decide to withdraw from this region if things get too tricky.

 

[SouthernSky]

We have currently aligned ourselves with a fading superpower and an old colonial power both of which could well decide to withdraw from this region if things get too tricky.

You seem to think that ends badly for one side of the triangle only?

 

[hauritz]

You seem to think that ends badly for one side of the triangle only?

Well let's just say that we haven't got the option to leave if things get too tough.

 

[Volkodav]

There is no need for conflict or for a contest where there is one winner and everyone else loses.

It annoys me a bit that India and Indonesia are seen as threats when what I see is vibrant democracies. They are giants, they have incredibly rich cultures and histories, I see friends and partners not enemies.

Thing can change, this is where China was a decade ago and now look at where we are. But China is very different, despite claims by some to the contrary, to the likes of Indonesia, India etc.

Taiwan is a better example of what China could have been, same culture, same history, same people, different political system. Do not make the mistake of seeing our neighbours as enemies when they could, should and arguably are friends.

 

[seaspear]

I understand Australia does not want the Virginia V class which has the extra Virginia payload module ,this may make sense if it was a consideration of not needing to carry extra missiles ,but the article on Seabed espionage suggests that this would be large enough for the deployment of large drones, its not likely the AUKUS class will have such an ability should a consideration be for this class?
AUKUS Nuclear Sub Deal Opens Door to Advanced Undersea Operations (maritime-executive.com)
Seabed Espionage Variant Of Virginia Class Submarine In Development (thedrive.com)

 

[SouthernSky]

Well let's just say that we haven't got the option to leave if things get too tough.

Neither do the other two.

 

[hauritz]

There is no need for conflict or for a contest where there is one winner and everyone else loses.

It annoys me a bit that India and Indonesia are seen as threats when what I see is vibrant democracies. They are giants, they have incredibly rich cultures and histories, I see friends and partners not enemies.

Thing can change, this is where China was a decade ago and now look at where we are. But China is very different, despite claims by some to the contrary, to the likes of Indonesia, India etc.

Taiwan is a better example of what China could have been, same culture, same history, same people, different political system. Do not make the mistake of seeing our neighbours as enemies when they could, should and arguably are friends.

I don’t see relations between Australia, India or Indonesia or any other country necessarily deteriorating. I would hope that they wouldn’t and that Australia continues to pursue good relations with these countries.

However can’t deny that their have been times when particularly Australia and Indonesia have been at loggerheads. Australia acquiring SSNs will not endear us to the Indonesians.

I think Australia is perfectly justified in acquiring SSNs in response to a far more belligerent China but I can also understand why our neighbours may not be quite so happy to see this huge boost in capability to Australia.

Indonesia is very much the meat in the sandwich between China and Australia and its Aukus allies. I can actually understand why they would not be entirely happy with that situation.