About that sneaky Akula

[Quiller]

There was a recent news item suggesting a Russian Akula-class submarine conducted a month-long combat patrol in the Gulf of Mexico without being detected by the United States military. Almost immediately several military blogs said many "senior" or "experienced" former (retired) submariners believe that to be a bunch of hooey. None of those "experts" were named, so their credentials could not be checked. Others suggested the story was false, a plant to politically embarass the President of the US in an election year. It was noted that the information trail led back to and ended at a conservatrive blog. The author of the article however, was Bill Gertz who is a nationally respected columnist in military affairs for a major US newspaper in Washington DC, who is renowned for developing many "informants" in the militaries around the globe.

Of course neither the US military nor Russia has made any definitive statement.

So... assume for the sake of analysis the story is true. How could an Akula elude detection in the Gulf of Mexico?

Some inquiries to start the ball rolling. You scientists will be familiar with Occam's Razor, a hypothesis about how things occur in nature, enunciated in 1852 by an English logician. Essentially -- if there are several explanations for an observed phenomena (or lack of observation in our case), the simplest most direct solution is probably the correct one.

Following that thread, you cynics would say the simplest explanation is, there was no Akula patrol to be detected. Okay, fair enough. But, if we assume there WAS such a patrol, what is the simplest explanation?

Perhaps there were no sensing assets (planes, ships, etc.) patrolling in sufficient quantity or scope to detect it.

That done... what about advances in hull tiles or coatings, perhaps developed for Russia's newest subs, that could be retrofitted to an Akula?

How about sailing tactics to avoid detection zones?

If an Akula did make the Gulf transit, how might it have accomplished it without detection?

 

[Todjaeger]

Honestly, without knowing anything about either the "source" or having read any other information about such an event, the story does sound rather, er... fishy... to me at least.

For one thing, if the US did not know that an Akula-class spent a month in the Gulf of Mexico, how did the author hear about it, from the Russians? So far, this story comes across as being a political and/or misinformation campaign.

Russia would be interested in keeping such a patrol a secret, so that the US does not increase its ASW capabilities, and therefore would likely not be the source of the story.

OTOH, if the source of the story came from within the US/US military... How did they know that an Akula-class SSN spent a month in the Gulf of Mexico, without knowing that the SSN was there? Something is not tallying here.

As for how a Russian sub could get into the Gulf of Mexico, it would either pass through the Florida Straits, or the Yucatan Channel. Given that the Straits of Florida are ~150 km wide, and the Yucatan Channel is ~217 km wide at the narrowest point, a sub would most likely be in international waters during transit.

Further, the Yucatan Channel is rather deep in parts, as are significant parts of the Gulf, which means a SSN could dive deep and stay beneath layers, making detection rather difficult except via another sub. This is also assuming that there were US assets within detection range of the Akula-class and either actively or passively looking for subs.

If there are no USN escorts in place either pinging away with active sonar, or have towed passive arrays out, there is little chance that a sub (even a noisy one) would be picked up. Airborne ASW systems likewise would not be much help, since items like sonobuoys are not just deployed without a reason (i.e. suspicion that a sub is present)

Even in exercises with restricted kill boxes, subs are difficult to find. That is one reason why a deployed CBG typically has 1-2 SSN's lurking nearby, who are tasked with protecting the CBG from sub contacts.

-Cheers

 

[Twain]

Which blog was the initial source of this story? I've been curious about it since it seemed that a few things that were reported don't seem to make sense.

 

[USAF77]

I smell a rat. The USN had recent cuts to its SSN force by the Obama crew. This may be a ploy to get funding back. The Leak doesnt make any sense.

 

[AegisFC]

The story is fishy on a couple levels and besides if the the Russian sub were in international waters there was nothing the USN could of done to them anyway besides track them.

 

[Quiller]

Whether or not the story is true wasn't the reason for the post. The references to the political aspects at the outset were only to acknowledge they exist... (incidentally, a Russian SSN patrolling of the US Coast is not particularly likely to "scare" the American public just now. Russia isn't, at present, the bogeyman it was twenty years ago. Americans are more concerned with the economy. Even the war in Afghanistan has taken a back seat in the minds of the American street. The current internaitonal enemies list is still topped by Iran, with efforts to make China a close second. So the story, whether true or false, wasn't likely to provoke a big political hit for anybody, and in fact, didn't.)

the point is, are there seamanship techniques or new technologies that could have been adapted to the Akula that would make it tougher to track and identify.

I have no interest in defending the validity of the original story. But, could it happen? And how in the absence of mere luck? Or is the Akula just too "loud" to succeed at eluding detection these days?

 

[Todjaeger]

Whether or not the story is true wasn't the reason for the post. The references to the political aspects at the outset were only to acknowledge they exist... (incidentally, a Russian SSN patrolling of the US Coast is not particularly likely to "scare" the American public just now. Russia isn't, at present, the bogeyman it was twenty years ago. Americans are more concerned with the economy. Even the war in Afghanistan has taken a back seat in the minds of the American street. The current internaitonal enemies list is still topped by Iran, with efforts to make China a close second. So the story, whether true or false, wasn't likely to provoke a big political hit for anybody, and in fact, didn't.)

the point is, are there seamanship techniques or new technologies that could have been adapted to the Akula that would make it tougher to track and identify.

I have no interest in defending the validity of the original story. But, could it happen? And how in the absence of mere luck? Or is the Akula just too "loud" to succeed at eluding detection these days?

Speaking more generally about SSN ops, and less about the capabilities of an Akula-class, most surface escorts have difficulties in detecting, tracking and prosecuting sub contacts when actively engaged in ASW ops.

Since the end of the Cold War, and the (perceived) diminished threat to US interests by hostile subs, US ASW capabilities have declined. Partially due to force restructing and also in part due to changes in training which has less emphasis on ASW ops.

Now to specifically speak of the Gulf of Mexico, there are a few things which must be kept in mind. The two entryways into the Gulf are natural choke points, but both are large enough to extend into international waters and over the horizon. Unless there was some sort of agreement to run a SOSUS line (like the old G-I-UK line) between the US, Cuba and Mexico, it would be difficult for the USN to monitor what enters/exits the Gulf without stationing assets to monitor traffic.

Once a sub were to enter into the Gulf, while there are significant areas of fairly shallow waters due to the continental shelf, is also a large area of very deep water. Another and perhaps more important fact is the surface area of the Gulf, which is roughly twice the size of the North Sea. Plenty of space and transient traffic for an SSN to quietly disappear into, unless it was already being stalked (most likely by another SSN).

Speaking specifically about the Akula-class SSN, it has/had (depending on vessel) quieting measures applied to it, while not necessarily the most advanced sub any more, if the sub is properly operated and maintained, I suspect that the US would have difficulties in dealing with one in the Gulf, unless a USN SSN is tasked with responding...

-Cheers

 

[Feanor]

-Cheers

The only Russian source I saw was in Vzglyad, and quoted a US newspaper on it...

 

[Milne Bay]

The only Russian source I saw was in Vzglyad, and quoted a US newspaper on it...

Journalists quoting journalists .....
Sounds like that question from an Australian TV journalist that started something like this ....
...................there are rumours of talk that there's a story going around that ...........
.....truly great journalistic research .......

The long neglect of ASW ops and training will be felt when it is next needed I fear .........

 

[Pendekar]

If i'm not mistaken, did US have a specialy fitted ASW ship that trailing a mile long Towed array sonar? I heard it's suppose to be an alternative in case soviet manage to disable a SOSUS line.

 

[Belesari]

Or possibly there was a akula class sub tracked in the gulf the entire time and the US simply has no wish or reason to tell the world that it Was tracked.

There was a recent news item suggesting a Russian Akula-class submarine conducted a month-long combat patrol in the Gulf of Mexico without being detected by the United States military. Almost immediately several military blogs said many "senior" or "experienced" former (retired) submariners believe that to be a bunch of hooey. None of those "experts" were named, so their credentials could not be checked. Others suggested the story was false, a plant to politically embarass the President of the US in an election year. It was noted that the information trail led back to and ended at a conservatrive blog. The author of the article however, was Bill Gertz who is a nationally respected columnist in military affairs for a major US newspaper in Washington DC, who is renowned for developing many "informants" in the militaries around the globe.

Of course neither the US military nor Russia has made any definitive statement.

So... assume for the sake of analysis the story is true. How could an Akula elude detection in the Gulf of Mexico?

Some inquiries to start the ball rolling. You scientists will be familiar with Occam's Razor, a hypothesis about how things occur in nature, enunciated in 1852 by an English logician. Essentially -- if there are several explanations for an observed phenomena (or lack of observation in our case), the simplest most direct solution is probably the correct one.

Following that thread, you cynics would say the simplest explanation is, there was no Akula patrol to be detected. Okay, fair enough. But, if we assume there WAS such a patrol, what is the simplest explanation?

Perhaps there were no sensing assets (planes, ships, etc.) patrolling in sufficient quantity or scope to detect it.

That done... what about advances in hull tiles or coatings, perhaps developed for Russia's newest subs, that could be retrofitted to an Akula?

How about sailing tactics to avoid detection zones?

If an Akula did make the Gulf transit, how might it have accomplished it without detection?

 

[Belesari]

Journalists quoting journalists .....
Sounds like that question from an Australian TV journalist that started something like this ....
...................there are rumours of talk that there's a story going around that ...........
.....truly great journalistic research .......

The long neglect of ASW ops and training will be felt when it is next needed I fear .........

Sir i demand you show me quotes of your sources-sources-sources annonymous source.

And yes Many people are aware of the US navies neglect in numerous ways of ASW. The problem for the US Navy is its size and power means it keeps most any naval conflict from starting and subwarfare by definition is a slow and rather out of site process. Which means even in a world where more and more navies are getting subs you have people championing the rolling back of US ASW assets for things that are more visible.

 

[EXSSBN2005]

It would probably be fairly easy for an Akula to transit the gulf undetected, if your not actively hunting a sub they are almost impossiable to find and if your actively hunting then just really hard to find, thats why they are used, in and out no one knows you were even there unless someone talks. A friend who I went thru nuc school with who was on the Parche told me about some of the weird mods they had, was rather interesting from a water flow perspective and potable water collection system. Now if they had said it transited up the Mississippi River aways I would think of calling bs as there is alot of traffic that might hit it as its not all that deep in the river.

Sure they could have done it the question is why would they want to other than to prove that they could. ASW is tedious time consuming and fairly boring until you know there is a sub there then it gets interesting to see what developes and how the other guy acts. hunting for something you dont know if its there takes alot of concentration by sonor operators, who sometimes rely too much on computer analysis to tell them there is something on their waterfall.

 

[971]

@ Quiller


I’m not going to address the validity of the information in case or what sources – whether eligible or not – voiced it or why.

However I will address your inquiry as to “How could an Akula elude detection in the Gulf of Mexico?”

Honestly, reading your question made me laugh. And I’m tempted to reply to that with another one: why couldn’t an Akula elude detection in the Gulf of Mexico?

Project 971s are formidable platforms. Much more than US Navy would ever admit.

As for the incident itself; maybe it did happened, maybe not. Here’s what Vesti.ru had to say in their article picked up by RusNavy.com on August 17th:

"Russian defense ministry refused to comment reports of some media agencies about detected Russian submarine which was on patrol in the Gulf of Mexico next to the US remaining unnoticed for a month.

"Presently, Russian Navy submarines are on scheduled patrols in different regions worldwide. In accordance with global practice, actions of submarine forces, their routes and especially patrols are not covered in official reports being confidential information even after decades", defense ministry's spokesman told RIA Novosti.

Presence of Russian submarine nearby the US obviously indicates problems in American antisubmarine systems.

According to reporters, the question is an Akula-class nuclear submarine which is considered one of the most silent and unreachable for enemy radars submarines.

Through the recent 3 years, it is the first time Russian Akula approached American waters. Last time, two such subs were noticed off the US east coast in 2009."

 

[Quiller]

@ Quiller


I’m not going to address the validity of the information in case or what sources – whether eligible or not – voiced it or why.

However I will address your inquiry as to “How could an Akula elude detection in the Gulf of Mexico?”

Honestly, reading your question made me laugh. And I’m tempted to reply to that with another one: why couldn’t an Akula elude detection in the Gulf of Mexico?

Project 971s are formidable platforms. Much more than US Navy would ever admit.

As for the incident itself; maybe it did happened, maybe not. Here’s what Vesti.ru had to say in their article picked up by RusNavy.com on August 17th:

"Russian defense ministry refused to comment reports of some media agencies about detected Russian submarine which was on patrol in the Gulf of Mexico next to the US remaining unnoticed for a month.

"Presently, Russian Navy submarines are on scheduled patrols in different regions worldwide. In accordance with global practice, actions of submarine forces, their routes and especially patrols are not covered in official reports being confidential information even after decades", defense ministry's spokesman told RIA Novosti.

Presence of Russian submarine nearby the US obviously indicates problems in American antisubmarine systems.

According to reporters, the question is an Akula-class nuclear submarine which is considered one of the most silent and unreachable for enemy radars submarines.

Through the recent 3 years, it is the first time Russian Akula approached American waters. Last time, two such subs were noticed off the US east coast in 2009."

Well the question posed in my original post was in earnest. By asking it I meant no particular challenge to the Soviet technology that built Akula's as such. Not being an expert in Soviet submarine design (I say Soviet because that was the nation that designed them) but genuinely interested in the topic, I posed the question to actually get some insight. So...would you elaborate somewhat on what makes the Akula such a formidable platform? I don't challenge this, I'm actually interested.

 

[USAF77]

Not being an expert in Soviet submarine design (I say Soviet because that was the nation that designed them) but genuinely interested in the topic, I posed the question to actually get some insight. So...would you elaborate somewhat on what makes the Akula such a formidable platform? I don't challenge this, I'm actually interested.

The Akula is fast, has a good weapons load, dives deep, but most of all its quiet. Quiet about on the Level of our Improved LA class boats, the ones that still make up the most of our SSN force. This with the improved Akula's, a system that has been constantly upgraded by the Russians.

Luckily there arent that many of them. The Russians are going for quality and not quantity and they cant afford a large advanced SSN force. But there is an even more advanced Akula in the works. One said to be about as quiet as our Virginias and Seawolfs. Whether thats true or not I dont know.

But thats why they are "formidable". They are quiet.

 

[Wall83]

Luckily there arent that many of them. The Russians are going for quality and not quantity and they cant afford a large advanced SSN force. But there is an even more advanced Akula in the works. One said to be about as quiet as our Virginias and Seawolfs. Whether thats true or not I dont know.

The akulas was mostly build during the soviet time so "quality and not quantity" dont seem right there. Sure they are great subs in comparesment with other nations but there were alot more planned from the beginning, the just couldnt afford them when the sovietunion fell apart.
And where are they building "even more advanced akulas"? I thought they were concentrating on the Yasen class now?

 

[USAF77]

To costly. As far as I know its not even operational and it cost them to much for serial production. They have said anywheres from 3 to 10 will be built but at that cost, as much as a Seawolf, its hard to believe they will end up with many.

The akulas was mostly build during the soviet time so "quality and not quantity" dont seem right there. Sure they are great subs in comparesment with other nations but there were alot more planned from the beginning, the just couldnt afford them when the sovietunion fell apart.
And where are they building "even more advanced akulas"? I thought they were concentrating on the Yasen class now?

 

[Feanor]

To costly. As far as I know its not even operational and it cost them to much for serial production. They have said anywheres from 3 to 10 will be built but at that cost, as much as a Seawolf, its hard to believe they will end up with many.

8 Project 885 and 885M subs are planned as of right now. This is a realistic number given Russian defense spending planned over the next decade. What I would challenge is not the cost, but the timeframe, given the poor state of Russian shipyards.

 

[AP0080]

Im in VP45, an East Coast P-3 Maritime surveillance and Patrol squadron. Us and our sister squardrons tracked that sub and another sub for over 4 and half weeks., all the way from the mid-Atlantic to the Gulf. Believe me, we knew they were there, and where they were headed from 500 miles off the coast of Portugal. Dont be scared!! But yes there was an Akula in the Gulf for almost one week. We probly dropped over 300 bouys on their heads just to let them know we kne they were there.

AWO1 ????