6th Generation Fighters Projects

[John Fedup]

Countries like India, Indonesia or Saudi Arabia increasingly want to show both sides (West and Russia-China), that they are independent and don't want to be dictate by either sides/polars. They are part of bigger Global South nations that want to shown path of their own.

However (this I already point on my rare dallies with Indonesian forums), means those countries also need to face consequences of less wilingness of each polars on engaging them with their most cutting edge techs, especially in Defense. This already shown where US wiling to give F-16V or F-15EX to all those three nations, but not F-35 (not yet at least).

If either Euro developer that more likely work with either three above countries (as example), personally I believe it is more likely Frenchie. Especially if their 6th Gen tied up with German bust. India and Indonesia already big Rafale customer, and seems potentially Saudi's too. India also already Rafale M customer, thus natural potential partner for French on 6th gen Carrier base.

I don't also see UK will take Saudi on the expense of Japan. Frenchie more likely, as they are also try to find more capital that are not "dictate" by US.

I agree France is a more likely partner for India and Indonesia, especially as a 6th Gen carrier jet is needed for both France and India, perhaps Indonesia as well. Maybe SK is a potential partner as well. Don’t think even France would want Saudi Arabia in a 6th Gen project.

 

[Ananda]

Muhammed bin Salman is different breed of Saudi King (well he's now more de facto King) then his Father and Uncles. He's more willing to face US, and now he is pissed with the German. This where the talk of Rafale coming from.

Saudi Arabia mulls French jet purchase amid strained relations with US

Saudi is considering acquiring 100 to 200 Dassault Rafale fighters after US lawmakers proposed freezing arms sales to the kingdom in October because of anger with Riyadh over a cut in oil production.

www.scmp.com

Saudi Arabia mulls French fighter jet purchase amid strained relations with US after cut in oil production

In December, France’s La Tribune financial newspaper, citing unnamed sources, reported that Saudi Arabia was considering acquiring 100 to 200 Dassault Rafale fighters. The report comes amid developments suggesting Riyadh’s traditional suppliers may not be as forthcoming with jets in the future...

rusi.org

UK always close with Saud family, still it is question of Japan. So it's back to UK to convince other partners. Again what Saudi can bring is capital. 6th gen fighter program is expensive. Track record shown this kind of projects have tendencies to be over budget. More capital being secure can be attractive. So it is always toos-up choices between the two (Tech and Capital).

Don’t think even France would want Saudi Arabia in a 6th Gen project.

They won't if German still in partnership, but if German out, and they need more capital to close the balance left by the German, well I do see big potential, especially if Saudi then ditch their Euro jets for Rafale. Politics matter.

 

[John Fedup]

Muhammed bin Salman is different breed of Saudi King (well he's now more de facto King) then his Father and Uncles. He's more willing to face US, and now he is pissed with the German. This where the talk of Rafale coming from.

Saudi Arabia mulls French jet purchase amid strained relations with US

Saudi is considering acquiring 100 to 200 Dassault Rafale fighters after US lawmakers proposed freezing arms sales to the kingdom in October because of anger with Riyadh over a cut in oil production.

www.scmp.com

Saudi Arabia mulls French fighter jet purchase amid strained relations with US after cut in oil production

In December, France’s La Tribune financial newspaper, citing unnamed sources, reported that Saudi Arabia was considering acquiring 100 to 200 Dassault Rafale fighters. The report comes amid developments suggesting Riyadh’s traditional suppliers may not be as forthcoming with jets in the future...

rusi.org

UK always close with Saud family, still it is question of Japan. So it's back to UK to convince other partners. Again what Saudi can bring is capital. 6th gen fighter program is expensive. Track record shown this kind of projects have tendencies to be over budget. More capital being secure can be attractive. So it is always toos-up choices between the two (Tech and Capital).



They won't if German still in partnership, but if German out, and they need more capital to close the balance left by the German, well I do see big potential, especially if Saudi then ditch their Euro jets for Rafale. Politics matter.

If Germany leaves, SK would be a better option than Saudi Arabia. SK can offer technology as well as capital without the baggage Saudi Arabia comes with.

 

[Ananda]

SK would be a better option than Saudi Arabia.

If SK want to work something on their major defense procurement or project without US footprint. Something that SK so far will not doing it. Besides SK will be busy developing their of KF-21. KF-21 batch 3 is aim for more 5th gen + tech. Indonesia (if the administration consistent) will also involves.

So if German bail out, Frenchie partner choices more likely be India, and if Saudi can't get UK to convince other partners, then it's open for Frenchie to get Saudi too. What I'm saying don't look from North American POV, look at Frenchie need (if German bail out). 6th gen project is very expensive, prone to over budgets, and more capital accumulation needed. Frenchie need someone who can close the capital gap German left out. India can be, but perhaps will not be enough.

 

[John Fedup]

If SK want to work something on their major defense procurement or project without US footprint. Something that SK so far will not doing it. Besides SK will be busy developing their of KF-21. KF-21 batch 3 is aim for more 5th gen + tech. Indonesia (if the administration consistent) will also involves.

So if German bail out, Frenchie partner choices more likely be India, and if Saudi can't get UK to convince other partners, then it's open for Frenchie to get Saudi too. What I'm saying don't look from North American POV, look at Frenchie need (if German bail out). 6th gen project is very expensive, prone to over budgets, and more capital accumulation needed. Frenchie need someone who can close the capital gap German left out. India can be, but perhaps will not be enough.

France has better options than Saudi Arabia, a country that can only offer capital and political/religious baggage. Why not Brazil, already working on subs so why not aircraft as well since Embraer would be a viable industrial partner? As far as I am concerned, just about any developed or developing country other than Saudi Arabia, NK, China, and Russia would do. For the moment Iran would be on this list as well but there may be hope the Iranians themselves can take care of the mutts presently in charge.

 

[Ananda]

better options than Saudi Arabia, a country that can only offer capital and political/religious baggage.

John, since when those three (US, Brits and Frenchie) think about the second one when dealing with Saudi ? They always think mostly the first one. Even now all the talks agains Saudi in Congress mostly due to MBS dare to say 'no' to White House demand on oil and Russia.

Again all this only 'what if' scenario. We only now so far Saudi ask the Brits to be involve in 6th Gen project, and Japan reluctant to accept it. French so far still stick with German, and potentially only accepting new partner if German bail out. One thing the geopolitical track record so far from US, UK, and French with Saudi, they will accept Saudi if the "bargain" is right.

Just add, of all potential Non Euro nations that being talk has big economic potentials (now and future), also has ambition to develop or involve in Fighter development, whose has potential to involve with any 6th gen project as partner? This in conditions present 6th gen project need new partners:

1. India, very potential. However they are also have ambition to develop their own AMCA project.
2. South Korea, as mention before more likely develop further their own KF-21.
3. Indonesia, less likely. Even now has questionable commitment on KF-21 project. Thus make questionable commitment for any International long-term project.
4. Brazil, possible, but considering now they are more interested working with SAAB for Gripen E/F, questionable will be interested with another long-term fighter project.
5. Turkiye, well this is obvious. As long as Sultan Erdo faction hold the reign, they will go with their own TFX project.

Thus left potential the Gulf Kingdoms, especially Saudi and UAE. They always have baggage, now they want more independent geopolitical standing. Still they're continued being predict to have strong capital and most importantly "will" to invest in expensive defense projects.

That's in the end what matters. Money to invest in expensive projects, if you need to find partners for your expensive projects.

 

[John Fedup]

John, since when those three (US, Brits and Frenchie) think about the second one when dealing with Saudi ? They always think mostly the first one. Even now all the talks agains Saudi in Congress mostly due to MBS dare to say 'no' to White House demand on oil and Russia.

Again all this only 'what if' scenario. We only now so far Saudi ask the Brits to be involve in 6th Gen project, and Japan reluctant to accept it. French so far still stick with German, and potentially only accepting new partner if German bail out. One thing the geopolitical track record so far from US, UK, and French with Saudi, they will accept Saudi if the "bargain" is right.

Realistically all the kit sold to Saudi Arabia isn't really tier one, on the aviation side at least, so any technology leakage would be of minimal concern. Much of the profit for Western suppliers is after sale support (people and parts). France may be willing to risk 6th Gen technology for capital relief but will other partners accept this? I guess we will see if Germany backs out.

 

[John Fedup]

This article explains the current future military fighter programs in Europe (plus Japan) and attempts to explain FCAS, a term used by both groups along with Tempest, GCAP and SCAF.

FCAS? SCAF? Tempest? Explaining Europe's sixth-generation fighter efforts - Breaking Defense

In which the Breaking Defense team attempts to explain the differences between the UK-led FCAS, the Franco-German-Spanish FCAS, the UK-Italian-Japanese GCAP and all the other sixth-generation fighter development efforts in Europe.

breakingdefense.com

 

[Meriv90]

Bad article IMHO. They should have started with the cooperation between France and Britain, following the Neuron and Taranis demonstrators. Then Brexit happen and both kept the program name.

 

[John Fedup]

Bad article IMHO. They should have started with the cooperation between France and Britain, following the Neuron and Taranis demonstrators. Then Brexit happen and both kept the program name.

Whatever, France and the UK working together would be the same as Germany and France, French demands would derail the project.