Teaching history isn't my job. I try to be as articulate as possible. Perhaps you should try it.
Middle East Defence & Security
- Thread starter MaenZ
- Start date
Is there any possibility of you being more concise with your posts, or at least using paragraphs so that they are easier to read?
Do you mean to reply to @Ikimieli ? He's the one that's been posting essays on various topics.
rsemmes
Active Member
I suppose if you think the sheer unlikelyhood of an invasion of Greenland is somehow more dangerous that a nuclear armed Iran, then by all means, send your money to Iran.
But you wont, so you dont.
Iran has been shit-stirring in the ME so long, it has no friends, only business associates. The sooner the IRGC breaks, the better for all of us here.
But enough on this topic, it belongs in another forum."
Maybe this forum, vikingatespam ?
Pakistan, a Muslin country, has the atomic bomb, also irrelevant to answering my question.
First you reply with just one word: "Wrong". Well, can explain why?
Keeping Ukraine "in the fight" keeps Russia invading the rest of Europe, an argument often repeated.
Keeping Iran "in the fight" will keep the US from invading Greenland, maybe not Cuba, but do we care about Cuba?
It certainly doesn't prevent the US imposing sanctions on European vehicles.
(BTW, hasn't the US "been shit-stirring in the ME so long, it has no friends, only business associates" ? Starting by organizing, together with the British Empire, a coup d'etat that destroyed democracy in Iran, put a dictator in place and then you got the Islamic Revolution. Or you mean Kissinger and his "The US has no friends, only interests"?)
Last edited:
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Lindsay Graham says that the victory in Iran is freedom of navigation in Hormuz and stopping Iran from attacking the Arabs in the Gulf. Things that weren’t a thing just two months ago.
In the meantime, gas prices are up 72% here since things weren’t a thing. Seeding season is literally here as well.
In the meantime, gas prices are up 72% here since things weren’t a thing. Seeding season is literally here as well.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Before the war the oil and gas prices were quite normal AND there was also freedom of navigation...
It wouldn't be the first time that the objectives of a war become to achieve an outcome that was a status quo before the war started.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Don’t think it would be status quo though. Iran would, as Merz put it, humiliate the Unites States, for one thing.
And there would have to be some kind of deal made that provides Iran with some assurances of nonaggression in return for the same. And so on. I don’t think status quo is on the horizon. Time will tell though because I do not see how the US, and Trump in particular, can agree to anything along those lines. How can they not, on the other hand, though? It’s a pickle.
Franky, I have no interest in paying higher gas prices (and soon for everything else) because of stupidity of a few. It’s been 1.25 years, but feels like a decade and it is still 2.75 to go, unless the guy drops dead. I know people who think it is all worth it though for the brighter future. Laughing.
And there would have to be some kind of deal made that provides Iran with some assurances of nonaggression in return for the same. And so on. I don’t think status quo is on the horizon. Time will tell though because I do not see how the US, and Trump in particular, can agree to anything along those lines. How can they not, on the other hand, though? It’s a pickle.
Franky, I have no interest in paying higher gas prices (and soon for everything else) because of stupidity of a few. It’s been 1.25 years, but feels like a decade and it is still 2.75 to go, unless the guy drops dead. I know people who think it is all worth it though for the brighter future. Laughing.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Well, it is really worth it, because the american defence industry will get a brighter future because of this.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Maybe but their defence industry enjoys a large export market that helps pay for America's needs. Trump's actions will eventually (IMHO) erode the export market as many pi$$ed off clients will turn to alternative suppliers. Needless to say the alternatives will take some time though. With the US needing to replenish inventory, deliveries for US kit for export will slow. This will be additional incentive for foreign vendors to ramp up investment and production.
rsemmes
Active Member
Talking about Merz...
For a year now, Merz has tried to manage Trump through concessions and appeasement.
www.theguardian.com
I think I read "appeasement" before, but just like a missile, it needs "targeting".
NATO, Iran, economy... and everything else.
For a year now, Merz has tried to manage Trump through concessions and appeasement.
Why Friedrich Merz decided to risk Donald Trump’s wrath | Jörg Lau
Trump’s retribution is painful for Germany and Nato, but Merz is not backing down. He knows the status quo is untenable, says Jörg Lau, international correspondent for Die Zeit
www.theguardian.com
NATO, Iran, economy... and everything else.
Billions spent, lives lost on both sides and global economic collateral damange, and we get a memo to end it.
Might as well cap it off with Thank Your for Your Attention!
Might as well cap it off with Thank Your for Your Attention!
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
I wonder what the contents of the memo will be.
But can you imagine what the gas prices would be if Biden were president and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz? Can’t make this stuff up.
Edit: another “gem”:
What is truly amazing is that people still think there is a plan. How crazy is that!?
But can you imagine what the gas prices would be if Biden were president and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz? Can’t make this stuff up.
Edit: another “gem”:
What is truly amazing is that people still think there is a plan. How crazy is that!?
Last edited:
ITs been reported the Saudis closed their airspace and evicted American air assets from their territory as pretty to end this.
www.nbcnews.com
Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom” on social media Sunday afternoon, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort, the officials said.
Trump has an upcoming meeting with China. China may start the view the conflict differently if they are continued to be restricted from oil. Certainly it would seem to be now would be a great time to come to a mutual peace deal.
Trump’s abrupt U-turn on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies
Saudi Arabia, a key Gulf ally, suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, sources say.
Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom” on social media Sunday afternoon, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort, the officials said.
Trump has an upcoming meeting with China. China may start the view the conflict differently if they are continued to be restricted from oil. Certainly it would seem to be now would be a great time to come to a mutual peace deal.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Putting this article here (perhaps the missile thread is another option). the report does illustrate the missile defence issue wrt Iran. The huge cost and re-supply issues are clearly not sustainable, especially the short to medium range weapons used against the Gulf states. Seems to me the $hit option of boots the ground or the even $hittier option is giving Iran what it wants, several WMD delivered by Tridents are possible options. Best option, let China sort the ayatollahs and the Iranian Republican Guard...permanently.
Forgot the link. Inserted below
Six key takeaways about Iran’s missiles, two months into the war - Breaking Defense
Forgot the link. Inserted below
Six key takeaways about Iran’s missiles, two months into the war - Breaking Defense
Last edited:
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
^I am assuming you forgot to leave the link (to an NYT article?)?
Another NYT article also suggests:
Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway.[…]
Iran still fields about 70 percent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, according to the assessments. That stockpile encompasses both ballistic missiles, which can target other nations in the region, and a smaller supply of cruise missiles, which can be used against shorter-range targets on land or at sea.
Military intelligence agencies have also reported, based on information from multiple collection streams including satellite imagery and other surveillance technologies, that Iran has regained access to roughly 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide, which are now assessed to be “partially or fully operational,” the people with knowledge of the assessments said.
The UAE:
Netanyahu (post factum ^):
In addition to the reports that the UAE was bombing Iran.
Another NYT article also suggests:
Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway.[…]
Iran still fields about 70 percent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, according to the assessments. That stockpile encompasses both ballistic missiles, which can target other nations in the region, and a smaller supply of cruise missiles, which can be used against shorter-range targets on land or at sea.
Military intelligence agencies have also reported, based on information from multiple collection streams including satellite imagery and other surveillance technologies, that Iran has regained access to roughly 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide, which are now assessed to be “partially or fully operational,” the people with knowledge of the assessments said.
The UAE:
Netanyahu (post factum ^):
In addition to the reports that the UAE was bombing Iran.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
From comments under the post, AI’s logic:
Really weird stuff, though some people follow the same train of thought.
I wonder what happened in mid-2019 though… Well, on May 8, 2019, via the executive order 13871:
Imposing Sanctions With Respect to the Iron, Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Sectors of Iran
On June 24, via the executive order 13876:
Imposing Sanctions With Respect to Iran (sanctions with regard to the Supreme Leader)
This is, of course, in addition to November 8, 2018 stuff, re-imposition of the sanctions on Iran that had been lifted or waived under the JCPOA, where:
On November 5, 2018, the United States fully re-imposed the sanctions on Iran that had been lifted or waived under the JCPOA. These are the toughest U.S. sanctions ever imposed on Iran, and will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy, such as the energy, shipping and shipbuilding, and financial sectors. The United States is engaged in a campaign of maximum financial pressure on the Iranian regime and intends to enforce aggressively these sanctions that have come back into effect.
But yeah, they didn’t hold their end. Like Obama said, the goal is, or should be, to curtail the nuclear program. Demanding dismantling the missile program is, well… ludicrous, unless you can enforce it by disarming Iran (Germany and Japan scenarios), which is not going to happen. Thus, we have what we have. In fact, Iran should demand Israel to dismantle their missile program by the same token, getting rid of the nukes and nuclear program, sign NPT, etc. Mutual disarmament. Sounds logical, no? Well, not exactly. Pot meets kettle and here we are.
Regime change? Another “brilliant” idea. A country of 90M should be able to figure out their own stuff.
Boots on the ground would be insane and the outcome questionable (aside from devastation across the region and much more, massive migration, etc). Funny how Netanyahu said there would be no Israeli participation in such an endeavour (I cited him here previously). At the same time, a few days ago, he also said that if no deal is reached, the HEU will have to be physically removed. Is he expecting Trump to send the US marines to do that? He has a plan, he should go ahead with it. On his own. That’s what self-sufficiency he pretends to strive for is all about. And good luck with the adventure.
Nukes? Lol. That’s not an option. Imagine the US nuking Iran. Or anyone else, for that matter. Especially someone without nukes. Someone they bombed for a month prior, declaring victories since day one. If Russia nukes Ukraine we will have… some strong reaction. And so on. That is all nonsense, clearly.
Do what Iran wants? The thing is we did not have any of the currently prevailing issues last spring and certainly not in February. Now we do. What changed? A few donkeys making decisions that affect the entire world. And everyone thinks they can do nothing about it. Except China, just watching from the side, gaining power. It will be interesting to see how the current visit goes and the agreements made, if any (there will be, no doubt). Imagine the US president dealing with the Chinese while Iran is trying, semi-successfully for now, to impose its will on the USA. I don’t believe there are any good Xi laughing gifs; otherwise, I would insert one.
Another option is the war resumes in some way when the Jina visit is over. Simply because there is no way we can accept the Iranian terms. Or can we (they?)? No idea. We shall see soon enough though.