The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Hoover said:

Of course it is a war. It is like the British term "troubles" for the civil war in Northern Ireland. The gouvernment thinks it sounds better, less aggressive and that they are not bound the the rules of war. Like: "No, we don´t fight a war. It is not that bad."

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Yeah, that goes without saying, but that wasn’t really the question.

The Russian government views this is as a de jure “Special Military Operation” and has tightened censorship so that media are expected to use that term. So it’s not just a euphemism in the casual sense, the state is trying to enforce that euphemism.

And if you want to enforce that distinction, you usually need some kind of narrative that justifies it.

So what I’m really asking is: what is the official narrative behind calling it an SMO rather than a war, and why does that narrative frame calling it a war as wrong or unacceptable?

harvestman said:

Purely anecdotal, and concerned more with individuals rather than an official state narrative, but I see "special military operation" employed by pro-Russian commenters on social media in order to emphasise the primacy of the war in the Donbass. In those commenters' framing, the preexisting conflict between the Ukrainian government and DPR/LPR is the real "war", and the 2022 operation/invasion is just an intervention in that war. I also see "СВО" (SMO) functioning as an organisational shorthand for web-navigation (i.e., its use as a tag or other descriptor to indicate material that aligns with a pro-Russian perspective on the conflict). So, the reasons I've seen seem to be for political framing and/or convenience.

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Interesting! Thank you for sharing.

personaldesas said:

Right now the legal theory probably matters less than having a coherent narrative that the Russian public can rally behind to sustain the war effort.

Whether the argument is historical claims, self-determination, or protecting Russian speakers, the key point is that the government needs a storyline that makes the war appear justified domestically. The specific legal framing can shift depending on what fits that narrative best.

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It hasn't shifted since '14 suggesting that this is the justification Russia wants. They started with the narrative of referendum's back then and have stuck to it, even though it went from plausible to incredible over time.

personaldesas said:

Question for anyone familiar with Russian social media and domestic discourse: is there still an actual, official narrative explaining why the conflict is a “special military operation” rather than a war? Or has the term mostly become a kind of linguistic signal, a way of indicating alignment with the official government position?

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I'm sure somewhere there is some sort of official narrative, but to be honest I haven't paid much attention to it. In practice many pro-Russian military bloggers will cheerfully refer to it as a war, not as a sign of opposition, but just as common sense. Sometimes the same person will use SMO and war interchangeably.

Fighting seems to have slowed considerably even as we're most of the way into March. There are continuous rumblings about a spring and summer offensive by Russia, but nothing has materialized yet. Some Russian advances are still happening, for example Russia is continuing to gain ground west of Gulyaypole, pushing steadily towards Omel'nik. Russia is also continuing to gain ground on the Slavyansk axis, and pretty soon we won't be talking about the Seversk area anymore, as Nikolaevka is closer and closer. But in the area of Kupyansk things remain murky, in the area of Krasniy Liman advances are slow, and even north of Pokrovsk things aren't moving the way I would have thought, though again we see small Russian gains. It's not clear to me if we're looking at an intentional slow down by Russia, or by some objective factor preventing advances. I also do think that some advances aren't being mapped quite as well because the focus has shifted to the Middle East. But if big advances were happening, they'd get noticed. It's likely only some smaller gains that aren't being spotted.

I suspect, as many commentators have also pointed out, that Russia is aiming to reach the outskirts of Slavyansk, and eventually Kramatorsk, putting the cities within easy drone and artillery range, and reducing their value as logistics hubs. This is still some ways away, but it's closer than it seems at a glance. Ranges for drones have gotten steadily longer, and the newer Russian Krasnopol'-M2 shells have longer range. I don't know if they will attempt an envelopment the way they did with Pokrovsk (attempted but failed), or if they will push through the way they ended up taking Pokrovsk. And there is an interesting symmetry in that Pokrovsk and Mirnograd formed a conurbation but with some gaps between them, and the one less directly threatened by encirclement (Pokrovsk) was taken by a direct assault, and used to cut off the other one (Mirnograd). Russia may intend to try and take Slavyansk, and thus threaten the entire Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka-Konstantinovka area with encirclement. It will also be interesting to see how long before Ukraine decides this is a priority axis and shifts efforts here. Right now their focus still seems to be in the eastern Zaporozhye area, though the Ukrainian push there seems to have effectively ended.

Yes, it seems to be March "holidays" period, but all of Grishine is in Russian hands now.

When do you think peace will happen ?

And on what terms ?

Can they be friends afterwards ?

Claims of 1 or 2 Ka-52 helicopters shot down by drones. IIRC there have been close calls before, but this might be the first on a flying airframe.

vikingatespam said:

Claims of 1 or 2 Ka-52 helicopters shot down by drones. IIRC there have been close calls before, but this might be the first on a flying airframe.

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Not a claim, it's confirmed. Crew survived the landing but were killed by drone strikes. It'll be in the next update.

Certainly curious, but with the almost non existence of a front-line or an extremely porous one... It may mean nothing, on both areas.
Girke to Omelnik?
At the same time...
I have seen that grey area growing in the last few days, from Danilivka to Solodke.

Anyway, business first.
Like with the SK shells, Ukraine was firing US shells, those SK shells never travelled to the war zone, those were completely different shells. So, everything war related is using different aluminium and we, our conscience (principles?), can tie it up with a beautiful ribbon because everything is legal and fair.
And the war(s) goes always on...

Update.

Chernigov-Northern Sumy area.

Russian forces gained ground taking the villages of Sopich, Bobilevka, Chervona Zorya, and Potapovka, expanding their cross-border buffer. These penetrations continue to be markedly shallow, less then 5 kms deep in any place. There don't appear to be any attempts to push much deeper at this point, and they seem to be tied to Russian forces grabbing small villages and forested areas along the border. If the pattern holds, the next logical spot would be to grab the border checkpoint and nearby woods north-west of Sopich.


Sumy area.

In the eastern part of Sumy region Russian forces have expanded their area of control in the north and south around Popovka. This is all east of Krasnopol'ye.


Russian Lancet strike hits a Ukrainian Vampire MLRS, Sumy area.


Russia hits two trucks and a Bogdana-BG towed howitzer, in eastern Sumy. This is out first confirmed strike on a cannon of this type.


Russia hit the TCC building in Sumy region. Two civilians were injured,


Kharkov area.

Russian forces advanced, taking the village of Neskuchnoe. In the eastern corner Russian forces have taken the village of Peschanoe. Note the suriyakmaps link is absent, but his main map confirms this advance.


Russian strikes on Buzovo village, allegedly targeting Ukrainian border guards units. This village is about halfway between the Dvurechye area and Volchansk.


Russian gliding bomb launches seen from Kharkov.


Russian Iskander strike on allegedly a Ukrainian military staging area, near Malinovka.


A Ukrainian drone apparently hit a Russian ambulance, Belgorod region.


Kupyansk area.

Russian forces have gained more ground in Petropavlovka, have taken all of Peschanovka, and half of Kurilovka. Overall it looks like Russian operations east of Kupyansk are finally bearing fruit. Inside Kupyansk on the right shore Ukrainian forces have recaptured some ground.


Russian strikes on another Ukrainian crossing over the Oskol.


Oskol front.

Russian forces have gained some ground west of Grekovka, pushing towards Ol'govka.


Krasniy Liman area.

Russian forces have advanced towards Sosnovoe again, they also continue to inch forward in the woods south of Liman. Yarovaya is also under Russian control, again. From the north-east Russian forces took half of Drobyshevo, and have approached Krasniy Liman along a new path out of Stavki.


Russian bomb strike hit a bridge across the Oskol river in the village of Oskol.


Russian FAB-3000 strike on Krasniy Liman.


Russian gliding bombs hit Slavyansk, in a residential area. 3 civilians were killed, 8 wounded. It's unclear what the intended target was.


Anti-drone netting is finally going up in Slavyansk.


The crossing over the dam near Krasniy Liman appears to be destroyed.


Seversk-Nikolaevka axis.

Russian forces have taken all of Reznikovka and pushed in Kaleniki. They also took all the fields south of Reznikovka, and cleared the hills south of Zakotnoe, and are now pushing into Krivaya Luka. The pattern of Russian forces inching forward in Ozernoe as the southern shore is taken also holds, with modest Russian gains there.


Druzhkovka area.

Russian forces have gained ground in Golubovka, but haven't finished securing the village yet. They've also cleared Fedorovka Drugaya, and is now pushing towards Dibrova and Ray-Aleksandrovka. Ukrainian counter-attacks still enter Min'kovka.


Apparently a Ukrainian munition storage in Kramatorsk exploded, Russian sources claim this wasn't a strike.


Russia hit Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Sergeevka.


Battle damage in Kramatorsk, from a Russian strike.


Konstantinovka area.

In Konstantinovka Russian forces penetrated parts of the western areas of town but were pushed out again. Illinovka is mostly and Stepanovka fully under Russian control. East of it Ukrainian forces have attacked pushing into the southern parts of Chasov Yar while Russian forces have gained ground in the Metallurg summer cottages and are once again approaching the town from the east.


Russian FAB-1500 strike in Konstantinovka.


Russian Kh-38ML strikes against bridges in the Konstantinovka area.


Apparently destroyed Ukrainian vehicles in the Konstantinovka area.

Pokrovsk area.

Around the former salient area, Russian forces have pushed northward into Pavlovka and eastward into the fields east of Novopavlovka. North of Pokrovsk Russian forces have pushed west of Rodinskoe, taking a number of tree lines. A substantial grey area exists, with Russian forces pentrating Biletskoe. North-west of Pokrovsk Russian forces have taken all of Grishino and have pushed northwards in the fields out of Udachnoe, approaching Sergeevka.


A Russian Ka-52 was brought down by a Ukrainian drone while lobbing rockets. The crew reportedly survived the downing but was killed by drone strikes.


A Ukrainian T-64BV in Novoe Shakhovoe.


Russian drone strikes on a Ukrainian troop rotation in the Pokrovsk area.


Russian Yolka interceptor drone operations in the Dobropol'ye axis.


Russian Buk-M3 operating in the Pokrovsk area, towards Dobropol'ye. It's carrying 4 missile containers out of a possible 6, with one container empty, presumably the missile recently fired. SAM shortages remain evident. Also notice the concealed position it operates out of. Note it's accompanied by drone defense elements, with a quad-AK mount, and an interceptor drone.


Russian Tor-M1 in the Pokrovsk area, also covered by drone defense elements.


Dnepropetrovsk axis.

Russian Msta-S and Giatsint-S operations, Dnepropetrovsk direction. They're using Krasnopol'-M2 guided shells. The 2S5 is from the 90th Tank Div.


Eastern Zaporozhye.

In the north part Ukraine continues top push south. There are some Russian counter-attacks, but contrary to my earlier impression, it appears Ukraine is not done advancing yet. Ukraine has taken Nechaevka, Ternovoe, and Vishnevoe. West of the Gaychur Russian troops continue to advance, Russian forces took Pridorozhnoe, and pushed through to Rozhdestvenskoe. West of Zaliznichnoe Russian forces took Gor'ka, and have secured south areas south of Zaliznichnoe. Note the main map here is substantially more updated then the posts suriyak has made, and a Ukrainian counter-attack has pushed Russian forces out of Rozhdestvenskoe, while Ukrainian gains from the north include Danilevka, Egorovka, and Privol'ye. Rybnoe and Kalinovskoe are in no-man's land. There is also a large no-man's land with Russian forces penetrating north of Gulyaypol'skoe, but it's hard to see what to make of this.


Russian drone strikes on a Ukrainian element near Kolomiytsi, Dnepropetrovsk region.


Russian FAB-3000 strike on Gulyaypol'skoe.


Russia hit the dam in Pokrovskoe village, one of the crossing points over the Vol'chya.


Russian heavy hexa-copters dropping supplies.


Zaporozhye area.

Around Stepnogorks Russian forces have regained some ground in Primorskoe, and advanced again north of Malie Scherbaki.


Russian TOS-2M strikes on Orekhov.


Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions south of Orekhov.


Two destroyed Ukrainian tanks in the Zaporozhye area. One is a T-72, the other a PT-91. I have some suspicions about the date of this footage.


Dnepr front.

Russia's 80th Arctic Bde taking out Ukrainian unmanned boats in the Dnepr river.


Russia's 58th Army drone operators with Molniya-2 drones, Dnepr front, Zaporozhye region.


Black Sea/Crimea.

Ukraine allegedly hit Russian Iskander positions in Crimea. It's hard to tell what exactly they're hitting, video quality isnt' great, but they do appear to hit something.


Ukrainian drones hitting a Russian Bastion-P TEL in Crimea. Some credit losses in Russian GBAD, but it's also possible this is the result of smaller drones getting longer range.


Another video of Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets in Crimea. Targets allegedly include Pantsyr-S, a BK-16 boat, and Orion-S UCAVs. However it appears two of the three Pantsyr are decoys. In general Russian use of decoys has become more wide spread.


Another video of Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets in Crimea, this one hits a Enisey radar that's associated with the S-500 system, as well as some ships and boats, and a Ka-27. While the strike on the Ka-27 failed, others landed.


Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian unmanned boats near the Tenderovskaya peninsula, Crimea.


Ukrainian drones have attacked Russian ferries near Kerch. Ukraine has hit these vessels before, but they appear to be operational.


Russian drone defenses in Crimea with land-based AK-630 AAA and interceptor drones.


Russian truck-mounted Lancet launch rail in Crimea, reportedly used for hunting Ukrainian unmanned boats.


Russian Kombat-B armored car, with a drone defense unit in Crimea.

Strikes.

On March 24th Russia launched the biggest single-day drone attack of the war with nearly 1000 drones used. Quite a few drones hit SBU facilities, among other targets. The drones technically came in two large waves, one at night, the other during the day. I've collected links dealing with this strike wave in one place.


Russia hit Kiev. Apparently recent strikes involved new Lancet variants with AI control. Targets include the Tripol'ye power plant. Blackouts were reported afterwards.


Russia hit Brovary, Kiev region. Targets include the metallurgical plant. There is some evidence of the new Izd. 30 missile being used.


Russia hit Vyshgorod, Kiev region. Reportedly targets include energy infrastructure.


Russia hit gas facilities near Pleshivets, Poltava region.


Russia hit the towns of Znamyanka and Aleksandriya, Kirovograd region.


Russian strikes on Krivoy Rog.


Russia hit 3 villages in eastern Dnepropetrovsk region, Levadnoe, Troitskoe, and Boguslav, with a combination of Shaheds and gliding bombs.


Russia hit Gubynikha, Dnepropetrovsk region.


Russian drone hits a Ukrainian Mi-8 near Mikhailovka, Dnepropetrovsk region, 115kms behind the front lines.


Russia hit Zaporozhye city. Targets include a Novaya Pochta facility, injuring 8 civilians, a substation, the Motor Sich factory, and a residential area where 13 civilians were injured. Links include at least two separate waves of strikes. In a separate incident a Russian FPV drone hit a car in Zaporozhye. The city is slowly entering drone range.


Russian Shahed strikes on Ukrainian "mobile fire groups". What I think this is, is footage of Russian Shaheds with optics striking drone defense teams in the Nikolaev area.


Russia hit Odessa. Targets include the port. Links represent at least two separate waves of strikes.


Russia hit Izmail, reportedly targeting energy infrastructure.


Russia hit targets in Volyn' and L'vov region. In L'vov the targets include the local SBU office.


Russia hit a Ukrainian powerplant in Chernovtsi region.


A look at the new Russian Izd. 30 missile. This is a cheaper and shorter range cruise missile, and appears to be a larger version of a Kh-35. Reportedly it has a flight speed of 720km/hr, and an 800kg payload. According to Ukrainian sources it has a range of 1500km.


Ukrainian UAVs hit Ufa, targets include the local oil refinery and two under construction apartment buildings in Ufa. Two construction workers were reportedly wounded.


Ukraine hit Belgorod region, Smorodino village. Reportedly two civilians were buried under the rubble, no update on their fate.


Ukraine hit Bryansk. The target was clearly the Kremniy El factory complex, but at least one missile missed badly and hit a busy road in mid-day traffic. 8 missiles were used. 6 civilians were killed, 37 were wounded.


Ukraine hit the Primorskoe port, Leningrad region. It's a major oil loading facility. At least 4 oil tanks are burning.


Ukraine hit an oil refinery and port facilities in Krasnodar region.


Ukraine hit Kirovo-Cheretsk, Kirov region. Targets include the Uralchem factory.


Ukrainian drones hit Novorossiysk. Impacts are reported in residential areas, and in the port.


Ukraine hit Krasnodar and Anapa, damaging some residential buildings.


Ukraine hit the Belgorod powerplant with a HIMARS strike again.


Ukraine hit a Russian aircraft repair plant in Novgorod region, damaging one of the hangars.


Ukraine hit the drone port in Donetsk. Note the ruins of the airport building are still left there from the fighting in '14 and '15. One of the missiles apparently missed and hit another part of the city.


Ukraine hit Vasil'yevka, Zaporozhye region.


Ukraine hit some sort of industrial enterprise in Alchevsk, Lugansk region.


Ukraine hit Lugansk, targets unclear.


Ukraine hit an oil depot in Melitopol', large fires burn.


Ukraine hit a mail facility in Mangush, southern Donetsk region.


Russian air defenses in Donetsk reportedly firing on Ukrainian Storm Shadows.


A look at Russian drone defense teams training, Moscow region.


Russian reservist drone defense teams in Volgograd region.


Reportedly Russia lost a helicopter while repelling drone strikes in Rostov region. It's unclear if the aircraft was hit by friendly fire, or a Ukrainian drone.

Interesting bits.

It appears Ukraine lost another Su-27, and the pilot, commander of the 39th Aviation Bde, was KIA.


A road full of destroyed Ukrainian UGVs, location unclear. Not too long ago these would have been manned vehicles, with likely accompanying casualties.


A new Russian anti-drone munition in an under-barrel grenade launcher. It's a net for bringing down a drone at relatively close range.


A look at a new Russian drone called Klin. Reportedly it has a 5kg warhead, a range of 120kms and a speed of 120km/hr. Allegedly it has some sort of automated target tracking ability, and can detonate the warhead without impacting the target in an airburst.


Another Russian drone interceptor comes along, the Lis-2.


Russian Varan UGV with Kornet ATGMs in Ukraine.


Ukraine's 16th National Guards Arty Bde with a new Grad variant on a MAN chassis.


Some footage of Ukraine's 7th Aviation Bde operations, who continues to fly the Su-24M.


Allegedly the Saab 340 AEW in Ukraine.


Ukraine's 44th Mech Bde with a Rosomak APC.


Reportedly a single upgraded Leo-1 with a new Cockerill turret was delivered to Ukraine for testing.


Reportedly Ukraine's 3 Coastal Defense Bdes have all been converted to Marine Bdes. They are numbered 34th, 39th, and 40th. This brings Ukraine to 7 Marine Bdes.


Some more materials on Ukrainian Flamingo missile production.


A look at a Ukrainian unmanned boat carrying an interceptor drone.


Two POW exchanges took place between Ukraine and Russia, for a total of 500 POWs from each side traded.


A Russian tanker called Arctic Metagaz was hit, presumbly by Ukraine, in the Mediterranean.