The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The situation on the Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk border area remains unclear. Ukrainian forces penetrated quite deep but also apparently got smashed quite badly in the process. And it seems overall the front line isn't really moving in that area anymore, instead it's attacks and counter-attacks.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
This TWZ article describes the Ukraine’s ban on inexpensive anti-drone munitions. Understandable given the Russian attacks but if excess supplies are available then perhaps the ban is a bargaining chip for getting longer range strike missiles.

 

personaldesas

Active Member
Vladimir Putin enjoys a huge windfall from the Iran war
But the sugar high may not last


Summary:

The war involving Iran has pushed global oil prices sharply higher after disruption in the Gulf and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles a large share of the world’s oil trade. Prices for Brent crude have jumped from about $59 per barrel late last year to around $100. This sudden increase has greatly improved the outlook for Russia’s energy sector.

Higher prices make Russian oil much more attractive to buyers such as India and China. Both have increased imports, helping Russia clear a backlog of oil shipments that had been stuck at sea due to sanctions and weak demand. The crisis also weakens Western sanctions, since energy shortages make it harder for governments to enforce stricter limits on Russian exports.

The situation could also deepen energy cooperation between Russia and China. Beijing is increasingly worried about reliance on maritime energy routes through the Gulf, which could make overland gas pipelines from Russia more appealing.

However, the boost for Russia is likely temporary. Its oil industry still faces structural problems: sanctions, lack of investment, damage from Ukrainian strikes on energy facilities, and limited spare production capacity. Analysts estimate Russia has very little ability to increase output and may see production decline gradually in the coming years.

Screenshot 2026-03-14 at 14.08.21.pngScreenshot 2026-03-14 at 14.08.17.pngScreenshot 2026-03-14 at 14.08.13.pngScreenshot 2026-03-14 at 14.08.09.png
 

personaldesas

Active Member


Summary:

The war involving Iran has pushed global oil prices sharply higher after disruption in the Gulf and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles a large share of the world’s oil trade. Prices for Brent crude have jumped from about $59 per barrel late last year to around $100. This sudden increase has greatly improved the outlook for Russia’s energy sector.

Higher prices make Russian oil much more attractive to buyers such as India and China. Both have increased imports, helping Russia clear a backlog of oil shipments that had been stuck at sea due to sanctions and weak demand. The crisis also weakens Western sanctions, since energy shortages make it harder for governments to enforce stricter limits on Russian exports.

The situation could also deepen energy cooperation between Russia and China. Beijing is increasingly worried about reliance on maritime energy routes through the Gulf, which could make overland gas pipelines from Russia more appealing.

However, the boost for Russia is likely temporary. Its oil industry still faces structural problems: sanctions, lack of investment, damage from Ukrainian strikes on energy facilities, and limited spare production capacity. Analysts estimate Russia has very little ability to increase output and may see production decline gradually in the coming years.

View attachment 54481View attachment 54482View attachment 54483View attachment 54484
I do wonder whether there is an economic pain threshold at which the US and/or EU would eventually drop the sanctions altogether.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
This TWZ article describes the Ukraine’s ban on inexpensive anti-drone munitions. Understandable given the Russian attacks but if excess supplies are available then perhaps the ban is a bargaining chip for getting longer range strike missiles.

Seems like there was change of heart:
Screenshot 2026-03-14 at 15.33.25.png

Article in question:

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ Not Ukrainian, but American drones though. Ukraine has no say here.

The US Army has sent 10,000 interceptor drones developed in Ukraine to the Middle East as it looks to repel Iranian attacks without using up high-cost missile defenses, according to US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll.

Driscoll said in an interview that the AI-enabled Merops drones were sent within five days of the start of the US-Israeli operation against Iran on Feb. 28. The Merops drones were developed by Project Eagle, a defense venture backed by former Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt, and then sent to Ukraine in 2024.


The article you cited in the Middle East thread claims (citing Ukrainians) that 800 Patriot interceptors were fired, while Ukraine fired 600 over 4 years. Misleading because Ukraine has also fired some n number of Iris-T as well, along with other systems. Claimed interception rates in both conflicts also speak for themselves.

And again, I highly doubt Patriots are used to shoot down Shaheds on regular basis. According to the article, 887 Iranian missiles were intercepted at the time of writing. More than likely (I would say almost certainly) way more than twice as many interceptors were used to shoot those down. Plenty of videos with multiple missiles fired at an incoming projectile (plenty with all failing to intercept as well). For example:


Has anyone seen a video of a Shahed being intercepted using these means? It’s a red herring, in my opinion. Not sure why it is being published all over the place. Does it happen? Sure, I have no doubt. Is it a normal operation? Most certainly not.


As for the UA arms exports, wasn’t it advertised as the next big whale (another red herring, in reality) just a month ago?

 

personaldesas

Active Member
The article you cited in the Middle East thread claims (citing Ukrainians) that 800 Patriot interceptors were fired, while Ukraine fired 600 over 4 years. Misleading because Ukraine has also fired some n number of Iris-T as well, along with other systems.
This comparison was indeed explicitly about Patriots, not total air-defence usage. Ukraine obviously uses many other systems (IRIS-T, NASAMS, S-300 etc.), but those often fill different roles. Patriots are primarily used against ballistic missiles.

According to the article, 887 Iranian missiles were intercepted at the time of writing. More than likely (I would say almost certainly) way more than twice as many interceptors were used to shoot those down.
That assumption is already built into the article’s estimate. It explicitly models two interceptors per ballistic missile and also shows a higher scenario with three interceptors per missile. That is how it arrives at the range of roughly 1,900–3,000 interceptors fired.

1773578855828.png

And again, I highly doubt Patriots are used to shoot down Shaheds on regular basis.
The article actually says something very similar. It explicitly states that most drones are shot down by aircraft or cheaper weapons. The estimate assumes only around 5–10% of drones are intercepted by missile-defence systems.

So the argument in the piece isn’t that missile-defence systems are routinely shooting down Shaheds. The point is the scale of ballistic-missile defence and how quickly large salvos can consume expensive interceptors.
 

crest

Active Member
There's something that intrigued me for sometime now. If we look older maps (like the ones attached), it's shown that what being called Eastern Ukraine from the time of Russian Civil war is owned either by Communist Sovyet or Monarchist White. If not mistaken it's also owned by Russia during the time of Empire.

That territory become Ukraine mostly on USSR administrative division (@Feanor sorry if I make mistake on this, just based on what I found in open source). Thus for me raise question, when the "Empire" that govern all those Republics broken up and cease to exist, which territory that should be back to each Republics ? The territory that as it is, or the territory that belong to each 'States/Republics' before the USSR administrative division ?

This's will be different compared to Poland that gain practically most of Prussia due to division after War. Eventough some in German still thinking that those area should be return to United Germany, however most of Germans already accepted that due to consequences of Germany Wars.

While the results of territory of each ex USSR Republics (to differentiate with Warsaw Pact USSR satellites), many create due to administrative divisions. If Scotland leave UK, the territories of what's Scotland or England mostly based on what is traditionally belong to Scottish and English old Kingdoms. This's also similar if Catalonia leave Spain. However it's not that clear cut if we talk on ex USSR Republics territories.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not pro Russia or pro Ukraine in this matter. I'm just talk with their situation, perhaps the Russian in Donbass has legal base to argue that they are not Ukrainian and their territory is not Ukrainian. Can territory that divide based on administrative consideration of one ruling empire that govern them all, be challenged by people on that territory that want to revert back ?

View attachment 48146
Well most of it was broken away with the fall of communism. Or shortly after

In regards to your question about Russia having legal bases to the claim Ukraine is not a state it both does and doesn't. It does because Ukraine is strictly speaking a young country. So Russia does have prior clams they can drage up if they wish. As so other states on portions of ukraine land. Russia also doesn't because they agreed to this being Ukraine on set boarders after the break up.
As it is now they have amended there constitution to include several donbases to bring now part of Russia proper. And there is legitimate cause to believe that depending on how the war goes and how resistant the Ukrainian government is to a peace deal. They could add more as a way to show ukraine that peace is better sooner. That is providing the war is going in there favour of course
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well most of it was broken away with the fall of communism. Or shortly after

In regards to your question about Russia having legal bases to the claim Ukraine is not a state it both does and doesn't. It does because Ukraine is strictly speaking a young country. So Russia does have prior clams they can drage up if they wish. As so other states on portions of ukraine land. Russia also doesn't because they agreed to this being Ukraine on set boarders after the break up.
As it is now they have amended there constitution to include several donbases to bring now part of Russia proper. And there is legitimate cause to believe that depending on how the war goes and how resistant the Ukrainian government is to a peace deal. They could add more as a way to show ukraine that peace is better sooner. That is providing the war is going in there favour of course
Russia explicitly isn't relying on old claims. Instead they're leaning on the concept of self-determination from the UN Charter and arguing that the people in the areas they annexed genuinely want to be part of Russia. With Crimea there was quite a bit of truth to that claim, with the Donbas there was very little truth back in '14, though the years since have changed that quite a bit. With regards to Zaporozhye and Kherson these claims are pure fiction to this day. I suspect Russia could find some sympathizers in places like Kharkov region or border areas in northern Ukraine (though likely not anywhere near a majority in an entire region). But none of this is based on history or prior claims to the territory.
 

crest

Active Member
Russia explicitly isn't relying on old claims. Instead they're leaning on the concept of self-determination from the UN Charter and arguing that the people in the areas they annexed genuinely want to be part of Russia. With Crimea there was quite a bit of truth to that claim, with the Donbas there was very little truth back in '14, though the years since have changed that quite a bit. With regards to Zaporozhye and Kherson these claims are pure fiction to this day. I suspect Russia could find some sympathizers in places like Kharkov region or border areas in northern Ukraine (though likely not anywhere near a majority in an entire region). But none of this is based on history or prior claims to the territory.
You are of course right there not using old claims in this case, I nearly ment that they could if they chose to. Tho the legality of them conferming Ukraine boarders should end that idea but in truth confirming a nations boarders isn't the same as giving up your clames on the same territory something I don't think Russia has done. Tho again there not using that particular validation in this case. I was just aswering the question on what Russia could do in regards to territory in Ukraine at least as far as international norms go. Old claims on land is after all used regularly by older nations when it suits them. And as far as I know they tend to stand unless specifically stated that x country gives up for all time it's claim on x.
The South China Sea for example is currently a complete cluster of such claims
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The guy begging for interceptors and other weapons, whose country was freezing just days ago and whose electrical grid and energy infrastructure is severely degraded (lots destroyed completely), zero refining capacity, etc, tells the Brits that the new technology works better than the old systems because he has some iPad that lets him control the security in real time and see every enemy killed with video proof. Standing ovation, no doubt.



Last December:

Ukraine is building nearly 1,000 specialized drones a day to counter Russia’s Iranian Shaheds.

Today:

Ukraine is capable of producing around 2,000 interceptor drones per day and can supply half that amount to its allies to help bolster their defenses, Zelensky says.

8 hours earlier:

Zelenskyy says that to counter such attacks, Ukraine needs at least 2,000-3,000 interceptor drones.

Also talks about the cost of $10,000 to intercept a Shahed vs using a Patriot interceptor that costs $4M (from the article). Emphasizes that Ukraine can down drones more cheaply.

In January:

While still defense minister just a month ago, Fedorov's predecessor Denys Shmyhal, claimed that the ministry was already delivering 1,500 interceptors per day to soldiers.

But, in February (the same article as above):

In the month that followed, Russian attacks knocked out heating for the rest of the season for many Kyivans. Shmyhal, previously the prime minister, moved over to the Energy Ministry, replacing a former colleaguerecently arrested for what authorities call a massive corruption scheme that gutted Ukraine's energy defenses.

And reality (same article):

"Honestly, we haven’t seen any changes yet," Vladyslav told the Kyiv Independent on Feb. 13. His unit, he says, doesn’t get enough Sting drones, and those that they receive still have no last-mile targeting.

Also:

In a Feb. 11 statement to the Kyiv Independent, Ukraine’s General Staff wrote that answering questions about interceptor effectiveness could "negatively affect the progress of the assigned tasks during the legal regime of martial law."

A US General about Merops:

The weapon has logged more than 1,900 intercepts in combat, including surveillance and strike drones. A typical engagement lasts just a few minutes.[…]

"We're using the latest technology that's being fought in Ukraine right now," King said of Merops. He assesses that this system is responsible for up to 40% of Shahed shootdowns in Ukraine.


Report for February:

In February of 2026, Ukrainian interceptor drones destroyed over 1,500 Russian drones launched to attack Ukraine, reported Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s army, on his Facebook.

And:

In addition to the missiles, Russia deployed 5,059 long-range drones against Ukraine last month.

So about 30% of RU long-range UAVs (that include Shaheds, primitive Gerberas, etc) were downed using these interceptor drones, which without a doubt, include Stings, Merops, and everything else that fits the description (an overview here). That is, 30% if one believes the number cited by Syrsky (screeching my teeth here). So someone is lying. Clearly, both are.

Reality (the Kiev Post article as cited above):

Only recently have Ukrainian officials acknowledged even obliquely that interceptor drones have not lived up to their promise to fill in the gaps in traditional air defense.

"In conditions of difficult weather, the main and most effective means remain SAM missiles, which are all-weather. In favorable weather conditions, aviation, helicopters and drone interceptors are involved," Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky wrote on Feb. 12, promising however that, "the quantity and quality of interceptor-drones is growing."


And:

The lack of air defense has, however, been painfully obvious. Over the winter, many Ukrainian figures including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly touted the need for more ammunition donations for Western systems like Patriots, SAMP/Ts and NASAMs.

Zelensky said on Feb. 12 that "acceleration is needed with packages for our air defense. This is the key task right now not only for Ukraine, but for everyone in Europe. The Russians must not get used to the idea that their missiles and 'Shaheds' are helping them in any way."


The point being is that there is no some magic bullet of cheap intercepts that Ukraine miraculously possess. It’s nonsense and propaganda, along with the heavily advertised “fact” that Patriots are used to bring down Shaheds in the middle East (or Ukraine, for that matter). Probably the biggest argument here would be that these systems were never designed for it. Probably of hitting a slow-moving drone at an altitude of a few hundred feet is not exactly favourable (why not use the THAAD, which articles also suggested?). It’s nonsense. Remember the incident in 2018-19 (?) when the Houthis hit Patriot radars with these very drones and then launched ballistics and more drones and cruise missiles at the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia? Exactly how Ukraine works against Russian long-range AD batteries as well.

Furthermore, Merops are fully autonomous past launch, while Sting interceptors are mostly manual (and lack last-mile targeting as cited above). Sting interceptors are inferior in technology, without a doubt, and require experienced pilots to operate (training takes months (though I doubt it), according to the reports) and Ukraine does not have enough of these pilots). In addition, about the radars, crucial for operation of these interceptor drones (via Google translate from Ukrainian):

There is now a very large request for Ukrainian radar stations. The military is very much praised. The queue for receiving a model from one domestic plant is already 13 months. Six months ago, the queue was 6 months. That is, our manufacturer lacks scaling. Demands are growing, and production capacity does not keep up with it.

Ukrainian technology is simpler and more stable to use by interceptor operators, because it is made for the appropriate purposes. And imports have many modes of operation and settings for different purposes, which causes difficulties.


Then there are repots that Netanyahu wants to talk to Zelensky and reach out for his help. I highly doubt that Israel doesn’t have something that Ukraine does.


So much nonsense in the past couple of weeks on this subject. Funny enough, not a single article that I read cited anyone but UA officials, representatives of the UA drone manufacturers, basically anyone other than Ukrainians. Some huge deal was in the works with the Saudis (or the UAE?) that was supposed to be signed on March 11. Crickets. Saudis were not available for comment. And so was no one else advertised. Delusion goes well beyond though - the guy is planning to sign some deal with the US for his drones worth $35-50B (yes, billion, US dollars), but he does not know why Washington is not responding and is not sure if the deal will go through (imagine if he is serious!):

IMG_4404.jpeg



He also proclaimed in the same article that the RU spring offensive had already failed before it even began (that is what he said, literally):

IMG_4405.jpeg

The guy also, at the same time, wants to strengthen the air defences and… get more Patriots (is someone going to tell him? has Rutte told him?). But do not forget that Russia must not benefit from the war in the Gulf!

IMG_4444.jpeg

Caught a Ukrainian meme today on the subject of interceptor drones:

IMG-4419.jpg

Zelensky says something like “Please, just take our drones”; while Trump says something like “I am so fucking tired of this guy” (much harder to translate this part - there is more… “soul”, for the lack of a better word, in Slavonic languages, lol; the meaning is basically the rudest way to talk about a sexual intercourse that that has gone way too long for the complaining party).


The guy from Belgium, in the meantime, straight up says that the EU should make a deal with Russia and go back to buying its cheap energy:


Druzhba pipeline is also going to be fixed, though it will take a month and half:

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Speaking of epic iPad software, I remembered this gem, a post now appears to have been deleted by the author (thread on X):

IMG_4064.jpeg

Not sure how old that Excel version is (clearly very old), but the only thing there in Ukrainian is the file name, the software he is using is all in Russian.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
You are of course right there not using old claims in this case, I nearly ment that they could if they chose to. Tho the legality of them conferming Ukraine boarders should end that idea but in truth confirming a nations boarders isn't the same as giving up your clames on the same territory something I don't think Russia has done. Tho again there not using that particular validation in this case. I was just aswering the question on what Russia could do in regards to territory in Ukraine at least as far as international norms go. Old claims on land is after all used regularly by older nations when it suits them. And as far as I know they tend to stand unless specifically stated that x country gives up for all time it's claim on x.
The South China Sea for example is currently a complete cluster of such claims
Right now the legal theory probably matters less than having a coherent narrative that the Russian public can rally behind to sustain the war effort.

Whether the argument is historical claims, self-determination, or protecting Russian speakers, the key point is that the government needs a storyline that makes the war appear justified domestically. The specific legal framing can shift depending on what fits that narrative best.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
Question for anyone familiar with Russian social media and domestic discourse: is there still an actual, official narrative explaining why the conflict is a “special military operation” rather than a war? Or has the term mostly become a kind of linguistic signal, a way of indicating alignment with the official government position?
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Question for anyone familiar with Russian social media and domestic discourse: is there still an actual, official narrative explaining why the conflict is a “special military operation” rather than a war? Or has the term mostly become a kind of linguistic signal, a way of indicating alignment with the official line in discussions?
Guessing "special military operation" reduces the risk of falling out a window or swallowing a polonium-210 cocktail.
 

Hoover

Member
Question for anyone familiar with Russian social media and domestic discourse: is there still an actual, official narrative explaining why the conflict is a “special military operation” rather than a war? Or has the term mostly become a kind of linguistic signal, a way of indicating alignment with the official government position?
Of course it is a war. It is like the British term "troubles" for the civil war in Northern Ireland. The gouvernment thinks it sounds better, less aggressive and that they are not bound the the rules of war. Like: "No, we don´t fight a war. It is not that bad."
 

harvestman

New Member
Question for anyone familiar with Russian social media and domestic discourse: is there still an actual, official narrative explaining why the conflict is a “special military operation” rather than a war? Or has the term mostly become a kind of linguistic signal, a way of indicating alignment with the official government position?
Purely anecdotal, and concerned more with individuals rather than an official state narrative, but I see "special military operation" employed by pro-Russian commenters on social media in order to emphasise the primacy of the war in the Donbass. In those commenters' framing, the preexisting conflict between the Ukrainian government and DPR/LPR is the real "war", and the 2022 operation/invasion is just an intervention in that war. I also see "СВО" (SMO) functioning as an organisational shorthand for web-navigation (i.e., its use as a tag or other descriptor to indicate material that aligns with a pro-Russian perspective on the conflict). So, the reasons I've seen seem to be for political framing and/or convenience.
 
Top