Middle East Defence & Security

Middle East war live: Trump hails ‘productive’ talks with Iran on ending war


First taco I am glad that happened

SinisterMinister said:

Depends on how Iran reacts of course. But assuming they activate the Houthis and close Bab al-Mandab, you'd lose the 3-4 million bpd that the Saudis can export through there. Of course you would lose everything the Iranians export through Kharg, but it's unclear how much they could divert to Jask. They're currently around 2 million bpd, maybe you could get 500k through Jask?

The other variable is Fujairah, where the UAE exports what they can. There have been strikes there but it's still operational. If the Iranians up the strike volume to the point of a shutdown, you lose an additional 1-2 million bpd.

So really you are talking about an additional supply disruption of around 5-7%

Now consider that Trump just lifted sanctions on Iranian oil and you have to wonder, why exactly would they want Kharg? Feels like a misdirection to me.

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No idea what they are even going to do on Kharg. As if Iranians are suffering from a lack of targets. There are also talks of bringing 82nd to ME as well.

Fog of war.

And a bit of market manipulation.

SolarisKenzo said:

Fog of war.

And a bit of market manipulation.

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No $hit!!!

Sooooo they are actually blowing up power plants right now. My anger towards Trump voters growing by the minute.

^ Source? I have seen a couple of references to the same (unreliable) Iranians source, but nothing else.

Certainly murky and certainly not power plants; and not the US.

.
Israel still bombing Iran, including a pipeline supplying a power plant.
According to EFE (but I couldn't find it) according to the IDF and "confirmed"
according to FARS.

Then...
Yes, someone pointed out to Trump that the best option to get strait open to navigation again is to stop bombing Iran? Or is Trump preparing a peace with honour/Nixon escalation?
Does Trump need the pretence of "talks" to declare victory (again) and to tell Israel to play only in Lebanon ("We are with the invaded country", I think I read somewhere; or it was with the attacked country?); Trump can always invade Cuba... (again.)

"Ironically, Iran is probably in a stronger negotiating position today than it was before the Trump-Netanyahu war of aggression. Back then, Iran wanted to avoid bombardment. Now, it has suffered the worst – decapitation of its leadership, destruction of much of its military, attacks on its forces of domestic repression. The regime has much less left to lose."

SolarisKenzo said:

Fog of war.

And a bit of market manipulation.

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A couple of days ago in the space of a minute, $800 million in trades was made on oil futures. A few minutes after that Trump made an announcement that peace negotiations had commenced with Iran. Not the first time that there have been big market moves minutes before Trump makes an announcement. Trump even brags about how much money his billionaire supporters are making.

Anyway even as you are experiencing the pain of rising fuel prices you can at feel happy for Trump and his billionaire supporters cleaning up on the stock market.