Middle East Defence & Security

[uguduwa]

Middle East war live: Trump hails ‘productive’ talks with Iran on ending war


First taco I am glad that happened

Depends on how Iran reacts of course. But assuming they activate the Houthis and close Bab al-Mandab, you'd lose the 3-4 million bpd that the Saudis can export through there. Of course you would lose everything the Iranians export through Kharg, but it's unclear how much they could divert to Jask. They're currently around 2 million bpd, maybe you could get 500k through Jask?

The other variable is Fujairah, where the UAE exports what they can. There have been strikes there but it's still operational. If the Iranians up the strike volume to the point of a shutdown, you lose an additional 1-2 million bpd.

So really you are talking about an additional supply disruption of around 5-7%

Now consider that Trump just lifted sanctions on Iranian oil and you have to wonder, why exactly would they want Kharg? Feels like a misdirection to me.

No idea what they are even going to do on Kharg. As if Iranians are suffering from a lack of targets. There are also talks of bringing 82nd to ME as well.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Fog of war.

And a bit of market manipulation.

 

[John Fedup]

Fog of war.

And a bit of market manipulation.

No $hit!!!

 

[uguduwa]

Sooooo they are actually blowing up power plants right now. My anger towards Trump voters growing by the minute.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Source? I have seen a couple of references to the same (unreliable) Iranians source, but nothing else.

 

[rsemmes]

Certainly murky and certainly not power plants; and not the US.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/israel-vuelve-a-bombardear-instalaciones-en-isfahán%2C-en-el-centro-de-irán/91149753#:~:text=Israel%20vuelve%20a%20bombardear%20instalaciones%20en%20Isfahán%2C%20en%20el%20centro%20de%20Irán,-Este%20contenido%20fue&text=Jerusalén%2C%2024%20mar%20(EFE),desde%20el%205%20de%20marzo

.
Israel still bombing Iran, including a pipeline supplying a power plant.
According to EFE (but I couldn't find it) according to the IDF and "confirmed"

https://x.com/A_M_R_M1/status/2036230238238113847

according to FARS.

Then...

Periódico The Independent (Reino Unido). Periódicos de Reino Unido. Toda la prensa de hoy. Kiosko.net

Yes, someone pointed out to Trump that the best option to get strait open to navigation again is to stop bombing Iran? Or is Trump preparing a peace with honour/Nixon escalation?

Why is Trump still bombing Iran? Nixon’s Vietnam record offers a clue | Kenneth Roth

Richard Nixon’s strategy was about shielding his own reputation. Now Trump needs a face-saving exit of his own

www.theguardian.com

Does Trump need the pretence of "talks" to declare victory (again) and to tell Israel to play only in Lebanon ("We are with the invaded country", I think I read somewhere; or it was with the attacked country?); Trump can always invade Cuba... (again.)

Surprise US talks with Iran’s fractured leadership offer uncertain path out of conflict

Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at first dismissed talks took place, insisting Trump’s claim was ‘fake news’ designed to soothe markets

www.theguardian.com

"Ironically, Iran is probably in a stronger negotiating position today than it was before the Trump-Netanyahu war of aggression. Back then, Iran wanted to avoid bombardment. Now, it has suffered the worst – decapitation of its leadership, destruction of much of its military, attacks on its forces of domestic repression. The regime has much less left to lose."