The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

The zap direction is really rolling back at a record pace. Especially that first defensive line with all it's fortifications. From what I can gather the Russians are moving fast enough that even setting up new positions for drone operations are continuously disrupted.

Bringing up a larger issue of the attrition rates in drone crews recently. There at this point arguably the most important link in Ukraines defensive chain so to speak. I'm not sure how long it takes to train and equip a competent drone crews but I'm fairly certain that without a critical mass of such crews the whole concept becomes alot less effective.

crest said:

The zap direction is really rolling back at a record pace. Especially that first defensive line with all it's fortifications. From what I can gather the Russians are moving fast enough that even setting up new positions for drone operations are continuously disrupted.

Bringing up a larger issue of the attrition rates in drone crews recently. There at this point arguably the most important link in Ukraines defensive chain so to speak. I'm not sure how long it takes to train and equip a competent drone crews but I'm fairly certain that without a critical mass of such crews the whole concept becomes alot less effective.

Click to expand...

Ukraine is reportedly really short on troops here. Russia just cut the road north out of Gulyaypole, taking Danilovka. It seems likely Gulyaypole will fall before the end of the year. Of course there's always the chance Ukraine will rush additional forces to try and hold the village. Those will have to come from somewhere though.

Feanor said:

Ukraine is reportedly really short on troops here. Russia just cut the road north out of Gulyaypole, taking Danilovka. It seems likely Gulyaypole will fall before the end of the year. Of course there's always the chance Ukraine will rush additional forces to try and hold the village. Those will have to come from somewhere though.

Click to expand...

Ukraine has got to be seriously considering accepting Russia's terms at this point. They must be aware that if they force Russia to continue pushing forward the Russians have got to be close to adding another Oblast to there demands. Objectively it's strongest card the Russians can play to actually end the war.

crest said:

Ukraine has got to be seriously considering accepting Russia's terms at this point. They must be aware that if they force Russia to continue pushing forward the Russians have got to be close to adding another Oblast to there demands. Objectively it's strongest card the Russians can play to actually end the war.

Click to expand...

I don't think so. Adding Kharkov region will require Russia to reasonably control a large part of it, not a small piece on the northeastern border. I think Ukraine has another 12-24 months before Russia will try to claim another region.

Feanor said:

I don't think so. Adding Kharkov region will require Russia to reasonably control a large part of it, not a small piece on the northeastern border. I think Ukraine has another 12-24 months before Russia will try to claim another region.

Click to expand...

I think alot of that may depend on Ukraine ability to effectively reform a effective defensive line here. They absolutely do have the forces to fight effectively so, it's more they don't seem to be willing to make that decision to pullback far enough also to a not insignificant degree were? Drone ranges have indeed expanded and actually building effective defence positions require a earlier commitment then they did previously.
Im also guessing moral is still a growing issue. And imop the critical factor as I believe it's likely to break before the army itself does. Tho I do do try not to make a prediction on it I don't discard it as a real potential either.

I 100% agree the Ukrainian army is still a potent and effective force, but it's also never really been a truly cohesive force a factor that does not help with these issues.

Add in what control the top command does have appears to be a stubborn insistence on holding territory and political considerations over tactical or strategic ones. Something that has itself become a moral issue and I think despite the probloms the Russian army itself has there is a real threat of a breakthrough snowballing into a partial if not significant collapse somewhere along the front.

Especially in the areas mostly manned by understaffed and under equipped territorial defence brigades. they have shown a small but increasing breakdown in discipline in the last year there is a real risk of a unplanned retreat or a rout. And currently there is not alot of options for plugging holes. In short Russia may make that claim not due to the totality of occupation but on the speed of it. In such a case the added demand may increase pressure to accept such a deal.

Kharkov region also may not be the claim as much as it makes sence for Russia Dnipropetrovsk Oblast may also be a option if the current pace of operations continues. Or at least the parts east of the dinipr river. It's also Ukraines most important industrial region. Added to that is at least for now the lack of prepared defences compared to other directions and in general it's topography and i wouldn't be surprised to see it as a region Russia continues to push into. I don't think Ukraine has the forces to cut them off and it would also make logistics north to south a real headache. They also currently have a degree of momentum in the region. Granted I don't think they could occupy it in any reasonable length of time, but they could threaten it enough to bring Ukraine to the table

I have to wonder what is the Command Intent in Mirnograd.

Is it just to get Ukrainians soldiers killed so they can kill Russians soldiers? Is that going to be the 2025 Ukrainian offensive?
The first point would be knowing how many soldiers Ukraine has in town (we already know that Russia has 150.000 in the area) and why they didn't pull back to Pokrovsk. Then, we have those counterattacks in Szatishok. Is Ukraine going to attack south, towards Chervonii Liman to open a corridor to Mirnograd? Ukraine has to take the mine complex first, there are also 3 mounds in the area. Looking at the limited counterattacks we can see that Ukraine doesn't have enough troops for that operation. Even then, the whole eastern flank would be the front line, that would imply a retreat under fire; no to mention the western flank, Russia is advancing towards Grishine now.
Is there any actual Intent or is it just a case of keep holding... forever, to everything. Because Ukraine's High Command can see that it is not holding, it is slowly retreating wherever Russia decides (lately) to attack, to exert enough pressure. (Hitler was fond of declaring "fortresses"; in Vietnam, they had the Strategic Hamlets)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, said he was not opposed to withdrawing amid the "very difficult" situation in Pokrovsk but it was a decision for commanders on the ground. "No one is forcing them to die for the sake of ruins. I will support our soldiers, especially the commanders who are there, in how they can control the situation, or it’s too expensive for us. The most important thing for us is our soldiers."
NYT calls it a dilemma.

Higher echelons should be planning for what is going to happen in 15 days, in 3 months. Holding out the next day doesn't sound like a plan.
Does Ukraine have resources to plan?