South China Sea thoughts?

STURM

Well-Known Member
Now, I am speculating here, but perhaps China's latest tirade against Singapore could have been borne from a renewed sense of confidence that if the Philippines could have their tail twisted...why not SG?
Granted almost every country in ASEAN has defence ties with the U.S. but Singapore does it more openly compared to its neigbours which are more quiet about it yet at the same time are also expending those ties. The Chinese know fully well that whatever they do; Singapore will continue to have strong defence ties with the U.S. [i.e. hosting U.S. ships, hosting a U.S. logistical team, exercises buying U.S. gear, etc] and will continue to have strong diplomatic ties with Uncle Sam [the only other regional country, apart from the Philippines, which has such strong defence ties is Thailand which of course is a non NATO ally]. What the Chinese might do behind the scenes is to apply pressure in certain ways for Singapore to ''readjust'' [if that's the right word] its ties with the U.S. whilst at the same time to be closer with China. Last year Singapore conducted its first [naval] exercise with China; followed by Malaysia and way before that, Indonesia. It remains to be seen but will we be seeing PLAN ships making regular visits to Singapore in the future and will there be more military exercises?

With the Philippines it's different. The country has a defence treaty with the U.S. and deep historical ties. From a Chinese perspective; the only reason the Filipinos have acted the way they have is because they are linked to the U.S. via a treaty. It's hard to see how things will turn out as Dutarte [in my view] has become unpredictable, at least with regards to foreign policy : first he said that U.S. troops in Mindanao would have to leave, then he said that he wasn't implying that the Philippines would cut its defence ties with the U.S. but would embark on a more independent foreign policy whilst maintaining its defence ties with Uncle Sam. Next he announces that joint PN/USN patrols in the South China Sea would cease. I would imagine people in the State Department and Pentagon, as well as the Filipino equivalents being a wee bit confused.

Not trying to be cynical but if Durtarte really wanted to embark on an independent foreign policy he should renounce the defence treaty [which obliges the U.S. to come to the aid of the Philippines in the event of external threats] and refuse any future offers of pre-used U.S. gear :] Dutarte has spoken of the possibility of procuring Chinese gear and I won't be surprised if China soon announces that it's willing to sell gear at ''friendship prices'' [similar to what Thailand received in the 1980's] and even provide long term soft loans. Dutarte had also previously announced that if Filipino businessman were not up to the job; he might accept a Chinese offer to construct a rail link between Manila and Angeles City [IMO this is badly needed due to difficulties in getting out of Manila due to heavy traffic].
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Indonesia to conduct largest-ever military exercises in South China Sea | IHS Jane's 360

Turn out TNI did not only conducting Air Force exercise in Natuna, but it will be evolved into three military services exercise..or what in TNI term 'Latihan Gabungan' or Combine Exercise.

This wholle exercise series is more bigger than planned originally, TNI supposed not to have combined exercise untill next year. Changes in SCS seems being used by TNI to be reason to increased their preparedness.
 

weaponwh

Member
The second for Singapore is the fact that freedom of navigation in the SCS is at stake. Maritime trade pretty much powers Singapore's economy since her early days. Should the 9-dash line be enforced, it would result in a lot of economic uncertainty. A large portion of the SCS would become China's territorial sea, potentially enforceable through military force. I think we can all see where this could possibly lead to.



Interesting is putting it very nicely. From my perspective, Duterte is practically caving in (kowtowing?) to the Chinese. His choice of Ramos as representative to China to help negotiate talks is poor, IMO. From what I read, Ramos' didn't exactly have a strong response to China's sudden appearance of Chinese 'bunkers-on-stilts' in the Spratlys during his tenure. Granted, he was hamstrung by a government less focused on the military and a subsequent financial crisis, but nothing changes the fact that the Chinese still have a presence there till today.

Also, I might be thinking too much, but such an action by the Philippines might validate China's approach of bilaterally engaging ASEAN nations instead of engaging ASEAN as a whole on the SCS. Already, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Brunei are more or less in step with China on the SCS for various reasons. Now, I am speculating here, but perhaps China's latest tirade against Singapore could have been borne from a renewed sense of confidence that if the Philippines could have their tail twisted...why not SG?
I doubt china will do anything to jeopardize martime trade route. Most trade go through ScS is going to China,S.korea,japan, majority goes to china, disrupt that goodbye china economy. The ScS is always a tag of shifting influence between US and China.

As for philippine, while we have treaty with them, but its only if they get attacked, (probably their mainland), China is not going to do that. As for resource right such as fishing, only china can lift the embargo on philippine, (US certainly not going to war with china on fishing right near philippine), hence why Philippine want to negotiate with china on this. and if phillippine genuine on this, I can see china giving sweets to phillippine such as import more goods, resource right, plus infrastructure building etc. They certainly don't wont push Philippine more toward US.
 

weaponwh

Member
Indonesia to conduct largest-ever military exercises in South China Sea | IHS Jane's 360

Turn out TNI did not only conducting Air Force exercise in Natuna, but it will be evolved into three military services exercise..or what in TNI term 'Latihan Gabungan' or Combine Exercise.

This wholle exercise series is more bigger than planned originally, TNI supposed not to have combined exercise untill next year. Changes in SCS seems being used by TNI to be reason to increased their preparedness.

Indonesia is fairly neutral, most ASEAN are. also Indonesia import a lot from china including military hardware.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
As for philippine, while we have treaty with them, but its only if they get attacked, (probably their mainland.
In the late 1990's or early 2000's I remember the U.S. announcing that the defence treaty did not included parts of the Spratlys the Philippines claimed as these areas are disputed. In more recent times however the U.S. has sent signals that an attack on the Philippines by an external country over the Spratlys would not result in the Philippines standing alone but the U.S. would do that that wouldn't it? It has to reassure its allies/friends that they're not alone and any hesitation on the part of the U.S. would sent the wrong signals; especially given that so much has been spoken about the ''pivot'' to the region.

Indonesia is fairly neutral.
Indonesia as you're aware is not a party to the dispute; thus it has to avoid to be seen taking sides. In recent time however the Indonesians have been very concerned about Chinese activities in the Natunas area.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
Indonesia is fairly neutral, most ASEAN are. also Indonesia import a lot from china including military hardware.
Which makes de-facto Chinese provocations very puzzling. An adjustment to the claimed area so that it respects Indonesian EEZ, and strict order to the Chinese Coast Guard to respect the Indonesian EEZ, and Indonesia wouldn't feel the need to respond this way.

The Chinese embassy can bail any Chinese fishermen that got caught fishing in the Indonesian EEZ. They have money to hire lawyers and translators. Fines can be paid quickly to minimize fuss, and if a few Chinese fishing ships got confiscated, so what.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Indonesia is fairly neutral, most ASEAN are. also Indonesia import a lot from china including military hardware.
Just add what tonnyc post.
This administration in the early at the office conduct several policies that favour China. The high speed train project that favoured China and side tracked Japan, even being condidered quaite alarming in Tokyo which sees China begin to side ways Japan possition as main economic partner in Indonesia.

However the development in Natuna waters begin to reduce the gain that China has before in Indonesia..the position of Japan as main investors and producers in Indonesian automotive industry stregthen more..so does the possition of US in mining industry..especially oil and gas..

If China begin to 'pissed' a neutral nation in SEA (which also the largest economy in SEA)..over their move in SCS..this raised question on real intention of China for SCS..despite what Beijing says that they want to resolve the dispute diplomatically. Seems what China economic/commercial strategy and the 'hawkish' policy and behaviour in SCS did not complemented each other..thus put even a 'neutral' party like Indonesia increased their alertness.

On Military equipment..despites some missiles or sensors that being bought..it represent only a 'very' small portion of inventory acquisition. The 'talk' with China for military industry collaboration is much smaller then the 'actual' industrial collaboration with western vendors.
The move by China in SCS already raised much concern in Indonesia for further cooperation with China. Despite this, the administration still want to maintain some cooperation with China, but more and more it will be relatively smaller compared to Western vendors..even potentially Japanese ones..
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Which makes de-facto Chinese provocations very puzzling. An adjustment to the claimed area so that it respects Indonesian EEZ, and strict order to the Chinese Coast Guard to respect the Indonesian EEZ, and Indonesia wouldn't feel the need to respond this way.
But that would be backing down! China never backs down! China is always right!

The Chinese position is absolutist: the 9-dash line overrides all treaties and considerations of good relations with other states, and Chinese fishermen must be protected wherever they fish, whatever maritime boundaries are violated. Being reasonable to Indonesia would run the risk of setting a precedent. Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines & Vietnam could & probably would say "If Indonesia, why not us?".
 

bdique

Member
But that would be backing down! China never backs down! China is always right!

The Chinese position is absolutist: the 9-dash line overrides all treaties and considerations of good relations with other states, and Chinese fishermen must be protected wherever they fish, whatever maritime boundaries are violated. Being reasonable to Indonesia would run the risk of setting a precedent. Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines & Vietnam could & probably would say "If Indonesia, why not us?".
I'll quote Singapore's Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan, as part of a lecture on China's relations with the world. The Ambassador is the 2015/2016 S R Nathan Fellow of the Institute of Policy Studies of the Lee Kuan Yew School Public Policy. In essence, he's really experienced and knows what he is talking about.

China has never claimed universality, except for a brief Maoist period which was but a blip in the long sweep of Chinese history. Instead China regarded itself as the Universe and demanded acknowledgment of that status. Something –too much --of that attitude still lingers in Chinese policies in East Asia and complicates China relations with the US and other countries in the region. But that is a different matter from claiming universality or being revisionist.
 

weaponwh

Member
China see ScS as them vs US, all other parties are just in between. It will tolerate Indonesia, Mala etc as long they are neutral, previous phillippine is another matter, but now I can see China/Russia overjoyed after Duterte bashing US. And if Duterte truly shifting from US toward China/Russia, I can see China lift its fishing blockade near scarborough shoal, $$$ investment in phillippine infrastructure, and visa for PH workers in china etc etc. Carrot and Stick.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
China does NOT tolerate Indonesia, Malaysia etc. as long as they are neutral. It is bullying them, picking quarrels with them over matters where China is obviously in the wrong & trying to force them to give it. It's been trying to bully Singapore over something where Singapore has been careful to be neutral. China is complaining about exactly that, & trying to push Singapore into backing China.

China's attitude is clearly "with us or against us". Neutrality is seen as refusal to cooperate, & thus disobedience to be punished. It's a manifestation of the attitude in bdique's post, as expressed by Bilahari Kausikan. He also described Chinese behaviour as attempting to “force acceptance of China’s inherent superiority”, & Chinese diplomats as expressing bewilderment that China’s generosity toward Southeast Asia — in trade and investment — does not engender gratitude, or at the least, diminish mistrust. They really seem to believe that China is superior, & when other countries don't accept Chinese superiority they are behaving badly.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
And if Duterte truly shifting from US toward China/Russia, I can see China lift its fishing blockade near scarborough shoal, $$$ investment in phillippine infrastructure, and visa for PH workers in china etc etc. Carrot and Stick.
Increased investment, soft loans for development, the offer of military gear at ''friendship prices'' yes but improved ties will not lead to Chinese ships staying away from Philippine waters. We have seen this with Malaysia. Both countries have strong trade and diplomatic ties but in the South China Sea its business as usual : Chinese ships still regularly intrude in the Malaysian EEZ.
 

bdique

Member
Indonesia to conduct largest-ever military exercises in South China Sea | IHS Jane's 360

Turn out TNI did not only conducting Air Force exercise in Natuna, but it will be evolved into three military services exercise..or what in TNI term 'Latihan Gabungan' or Combine Exercise.

This wholle exercise series is more bigger than planned originally, TNI supposed not to have combined exercise untill next year. Changes in SCS seems being used by TNI to be reason to increased their preparedness.
As an aside, it might be timely to remember that Indonesia has been wary of China's actions in the SCS since 1995. There are several sources to back this up, but I choose Alan Collin's The Security Dilemmas of Southeast Asia (Springer, 2000, link here) to quote from:

In September 1995 former Foreign Minister Ruslan Abdulgani warned of China's expansionist tendency southwards and in September the following year Indonesia conducted military exercises around Natuna for the first time in five years. In December 1995 Indonesia broke with its traditional non-aligned status and concluded a defense agreement Australia. While domestic factors can partly explain the agreement, the need to directly involve Australia, and indirectly the United States, in the security of Indonesia indicates that Jakarta remains wary of Chinese intentions.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
Weaponwh, China does not tolerate Indonesia staying neutral. Look, there are significant anti-US sentiment in Indonesia. And for a long time Indonesia has been careful not to get too close to any one side while staying friends with anyone. President Joko Widodo is domestically seen as leaning toward China. His first international visit was to Beijing to attend the APEC. And yet he has to order the joint-exercise around Natuna islands. Go look up everything I said. Use Chinese sources, they will say the same.

Think about it. Why does Indonesia feel the need to be assertive? Indonesia is not a claimant state in the South China Sea. So why bother? Well, it is because Indonesia is being pushed and thus pushes back.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I'm sure - like in many places - there's some anti-American sentiment in Indonesia but ''significant''? In the past there have been protests against the U.S. military presence in the Philippines so we can say that there's some anti-American sentiment there [in a country long considered the most pro-American and the most ''Americanised'' in the region] but that sentiment is not significant.

Given a choice I'm many Indonesians would rather have close ties to the U.S. than China. Bear in mind that both countries had significant issues in the past [I'm referring to events that took place in the 1960's] and some memories and distrust still linger. Like everyone else, Indonesia has adjusted to the fact that China has become a major player, a player that one can't just ignore. If I'm not mistaken, of the 6 countries which originally formed ASEAN, Indonesia was the first to have bilateral military exercises with China.
 
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weaponwh

Member
China does NOT tolerate Indonesia, Malaysia etc. as long as they are neutral. It is bullying them, picking quarrels with them over matters where China is obviously in the wrong & trying to force them to give it. It's been trying to bully Singapore over something where Singapore has been careful to be neutral. China is complaining about exactly that, & trying to push Singapore into backing China.

China's attitude is clearly "with us or against us". Neutrality is seen as refusal to cooperate, & thus disobedience to be punished. It's a manifestation of the attitude in bdique's post, as expressed by Bilahari Kausikan. He also described Chinese behaviour as attempting to “force acceptance of China’s inherent superiority”, & Chinese diplomats as expressing bewilderment that China’s generosity toward Southeast Asia — in trade and investment — does not engender gratitude, or at the least, diminish mistrust. They really seem to believe that China is superior, & when other countries don't accept Chinese superiority they are behaving badly.
Could you provide some link on china bully Indonesia? as far as I know China export a lot military hardware to Indonesia and has significant economy tie to it. If it really bully them due to their neutrality, I would think they at least has few obvious bully incident. i don't know ive haven't found these source on regular news outlet such as CNN etc. I don't consider the illegal fishing in EEZ as bully since both Vietnam/phillippine/mala did the same thing before.

when you mention Indonesia been assertive in what way??
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
As Ananda [who's Indonesian BTW] pointed out, China does not export a lot of military gear to Indonesia. Sure it has exported some equipment but most of Indonesia's purchases are from the West and elsewhere.

Foreign trawlers entering Indonesian waters are doing it for monetary gain; Chinese ships do it to make a political point : MAJOR difference.
 

weaponwh

Member
whether china or other country fishing illegally its the same, I doubt china/Vietnam/mala can control every single boats fishing in Indonesia EEZ. Also I haven't seen news from china saying they encourage fishing in Indonesia EEZ, furthermore there almost no backlash after Indonesia sink Chinese fishing ship compare to what phillippine did in 2012. China did export anti-ship missile, tech and other equipment to Indonesia. They wouldn't do that if the tension between them are high. China also know if they push Indonesia/Malasia/Vietnam too hard, they will move toward US, that's something China couldn't afford.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
China did export anti-ship missile, tech and other equipment to Indonesia. They wouldn't do that if the tension between them are high.
Arms sales as you know, are an extension of ones foreign policy. Nobody implied that tensions between China and Indonesia are high. Even if relations got a bit tense, China would probably still sell military gear to Indonesia!

Also I haven't seen news from china saying they encourage fishing in Indonesia EEZ
Have you seen news on China encouraging its trawlers to operate in Malaysian/Vietnamese/Filipino waters? I haven't. Also, as has been pointed out before : the majority of foreign trawlers caught operating illegally in Indonesian waters were not operating in disputed waters or in areas close to the ''nine dash line''.

China also know if they push Indonesia/Malasia/Vietnam too hard, they will move toward US, that's something China couldn't afford.
Which it's doing. Increased Chinese actions which others view as aggressive will only drive countries further into the arms of the U.S. Look at how things are changing between Vietnam and the U.S.; to the extent that Vietnam is now allowed to buy ''lethal'' gear from the U.S.
 
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