South China Sea thoughts?

swerve

Super Moderator
Could you provide some link on china bully Indonesia? as far as I know China export a lot military hardware to Indonesia and has significant economy tie to it. If it really bully them due to their neutrality, I would think they at least has few obvious bully incident. i don't know ive haven't found these source on regular news outlet such as CNN etc. I don't consider the illegal fishing in EEZ as bully since both Vietnam/phillippine/mala did the same thing before.

when you mention Indonesia been assertive in what way??
Illegal fishing in Indonesia's EEZ backed up by Chinese coastguard ships, diplomatic protests, threatening rhetoric & even the use of force when Indonesia arrests illegally fishing Chinese boats . . . not bullying?

In March 2013 the crew of a Chinese fishing boat was arrested well inside Indonesia's EEZ by the Indonesian patrol boat Hiu Macan 001. CCG3210 (a very much larger vessel) turned up & demanded the return of the Chinese fishermen. With the Chinese vessel blocking their way (it's faster as well as much bigger & more heavily armed) & jamming their communications, the Indonesians complied.

Three years later, in March this year, a Chinese fishing boat was arrested just 5 km from the Natuna islands. Now, these aren't disputed reefs or rocks or islets, they're internationally recognised (including by China) Indonesian territory, inhabited by 70000 people. While the Indonesians were towing it to port, two Chinese coastguard vessels, one of them apparently CCG3210 again, turned up, forcibly broke the tow, & took the Chinese vessel under tow themselves. That was an act of piracy, inside Indonesian territorial waters that even China publicly accepts belong to Indonesia.

What would you call that except bullying? China says that those Indonesian territorial waters are "traditional Chinese fishing grounds", as if that justifies blatant illegality by armed agents of the Chinese state. It's sheer thuggery, a statement that as far as China is concerned the only law is the law of greater strength.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Could you provide some link on china bully Indonesia? as far as I know China export a lot military hardware to Indonesia and has significant economy tie to it. If it really bully them due to their neutrality, I would think they at least has few obvious bully incident. i don't know ive haven't found these source on regular news outlet such as CNN etc. I don't consider the illegal fishing in EEZ as bully since both Vietnam/phillippine/mala did the same thing before.

when you mention Indonesia been assertive in what way??
The action of China Coast Guard in Natuna's water and EEZ around Natuna Islands is really taken this administration by surprise. Like I posted before, this administration when coming to office did made some business policies that favouring Chinese Business and Investment which even side line Indonesia main business partner for decades Japan. Thus the behaviour of China in SCS really not in line with China business and commercial goal in Indonesia.

Natuna islands is not that small, the main island is around half of Singapore island. Thus it's not like a rock or shoal that dotted most SCS. It's proper teritory, that recogniseable by International law to claim EEZ. Now before the recent incidents, most Indonesian patrol in the area are small patrol boat, currently Corvettes and Frigates are more often send to the waters to give patrol boats that more or less in parr with what China put in SCS.

Indonesia can't and won't ignore China..nobody in Asia can do that..but Indonesia as SEA largest economy also has some 'economic cloud' that even China can't ignored. Which is why many in region really wandering how much trust China can be hold on to..in the matter solving SCS and in the same time doing business with them.

China is the 2nd largest export market for Indonesia, but China also biggest Importer to Indonesia, whille it's only 6th largest FDI in Indonesia..with Japan is the largest of FDI source whille US is the largest export market for Indonesia.
In short, yes we are much depend on China economically, but so does with Japan and US. Combines US and Japan importance to Indonesia far outstrip China importance. On this scalle, with now we are in deficit against China, and China also facing slowing export market, China will lose more than Indonesia if the business relationship severed.

China is 2nd largest economy in the world, whille Indonesia is curretly only 16th (eventough many predicts can become 7th or 6th by 2030, when China become the largest). Thus both growing economically in importance.
The point is both can not ignored each other now and in the future. That's why again China's behaviour toward Indonesia (in practices not diplomatically) around Natuna's water simply puzzling and counter productive to their own business and commercial interest toward SEA largest economy.

Can SCS be exploded..hope not..but can SCS be counterproductive to China foreseen interest especially business wise..well it can..
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Illegal fishing in Indonesia's EEZ backed up by Chinese coastguard ships, diplomatic protests, threatening rhetoric & even the use of force when Indonesia arrests illegally fishing Chinese boats . . . not bullying?

In March 2013 the crew of a Chinese fishing boat was arrested well inside Indonesia's EEZ by the Indonesian patrol boat Hiu Macan 001. CCG3210 (a very much larger vessel) turned up & demanded the return of the Chinese fishermen. With the Chinese vessel blocking their way (it's faster as well as much bigger & more heavily armed) & jamming their communications, the Indonesians complied.

Three years later, in March this year, a Chinese fishing boat was arrested just 5 km from the Natuna islands. Now, these aren't disputed reefs or rocks or islets, they're internationally recognised (including by China) Indonesian territory, inhabited by 70000 people. While the Indonesians were towing it to port, two Chinese coastguard vessels, one of them apparently CCG3210 again, turned up, forcibly broke the tow, & took the Chinese vessel under tow themselves. That was an act of piracy, inside Indonesian territorial waters that even China publicly accepts belong to Indonesia.

What would you call that except bullying? China says that those Indonesian territorial waters are "traditional Chinese fishing grounds", as if that justifies blatant illegality by armed agents of the Chinese state. It's sheer thuggery, a statement that as far as China is concerned the only law is the law of greater strength.
Swerve, what is your opinion? What is the purpose of Chinese actions there?
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I'm not sure that it has a coherent aim. It may be just an expression of confidence & spurred by a feeling that it's time for China to take the place that its rulers think it deserves. The attitudes described by those who've had direct dealings with Chinese diplomats, e.g. bafflement when Chinese superiority isn't recognised & fury when high-handedness is challenged seem to suggest not a calculated policy with clearly laid out aims, but an inchoate expression of unquestioned beliefs.

So, Chinese fishing grounds are getting fished out. Boats start fishing in Indonesian waters because there are still fish there. The Indonesians act to stop it. The Chinese react because they think that as Chinese they have the right to do so. They believe that their needs & even wishes override those of others. China is the Middle Kingdom.
 

weaponwh

Member
Illegal fishing in Indonesia's EEZ backed up by Chinese coastguard ships, diplomatic protests, threatening rhetoric & even the use of force when Indonesia arrests illegally fishing Chinese boats . . . not bullying?

In March 2013 the crew of a Chinese fishing boat was arrested well inside Indonesia's EEZ by the Indonesian patrol boat Hiu Macan 001. CCG3210 (a very much larger vessel) turned up & demanded the return of the Chinese fishermen. With the Chinese vessel blocking their way (it's faster as well as much bigger & more heavily armed) & jamming their communications, the Indonesians complied.

Three years later, in March this year, a Chinese fishing boat was arrested just 5 km from the Natuna islands. Now, these aren't disputed reefs or rocks or islets, they're internationally recognised (including by China) Indonesian territory, inhabited by 70000 people. While the Indonesians were towing it to port, two Chinese coastguard vessels, one of them apparently CCG3210 again, turned up, forcibly broke the tow, & took the Chinese vessel under tow themselves. That was an act of piracy, inside Indonesian territorial waters that even China publicly accepts belong to Indonesia.

What would you call that except bullying? China says that those Indonesian territorial waters are "traditional Chinese fishing grounds", as if that justifies blatant illegality by armed agents of the Chinese state. It's sheer thuggery, a statement that as far as China is concerned the only law is the law of greater strength.
I have seen same behavior from Vietnam/Malasia in Indonesia water, so whats difference? as for coast guard ship and other ships, they can pretty much says its FON. Im sure Vietnam did the same before too, saw some news way back. This is different than China taken over scarborough shoal and blockade phillippine fisherman enter the area. Furthermore, Indonesia is one who constantly sink fishing trawler whether its Chinese/vietnamess/mala/etc. If china start using coast guard ship blocking Indonesia fishing trawler in their own EEZ, that will be bullying. Regular tag of fishing trawler in ScS between each nation is fairly norm these days.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
When have Malaysian & Vietnamese coastguard or navy ships attacked Indonesian coastguard boats in Indonesian territorial waters? I've never heard of it.

These aren't disputed waters, or around reefs or shoals in the Spratleys, this is Indonesia proper, & a few km from the coast. It's like an Indonesian ship interfering with a Chinese coastguard boat within sight of Hainan. This is definitely not the usual playing tag in the SCS.

If Indonesia sinks trawlers which are illegally fishing in Indonesian waters, so what? They're entitled to do that. It's legal under Indonesian & international law. Well, as long as they take the crews off first, which they do. What China does is totally illegal under Chinese law - & everyone elses.
 

weaponwh

Member
Arms sales as you know, are an extension of ones foreign policy. Nobody implied that tensions between China and Indonesia are high. Even if relations got a bit tense, China would probably still sell military gear to Indonesia!



Have you seen news on China encouraging its trawlers to operate in Malaysian/Vietnamese/Filipino waters? I haven't. Also, as has been pointed out before : the majority of foreign trawlers caught operating illegally in Indonesian waters were not operating in disputed waters or in areas close to the ''nine dash line''.



Which it's doing. Increased Chinese actions which others view as aggressive will only drive countries further into the arms of the U.S. Look at how things are changing between Vietnam and the U.S.; to the extent that Vietnam is now allowed to buy ''lethal'' gear from the U.S.
The thing is Vietnam just had its top official visit China a month or two ago. They know they have to work with China to solve the issue, US certainly not going to back up Vietnam if a shooting war started between them except sell them some weapons. ASEAN as well as some other country don't want to get too closed to either side, consider China is the largest import/emporter. China will assert itself to a point but not hard enough to push those countries into US. Simply, US still has enough influence in the region for China to think twice before pushing these nations too far, but what about 25yrs from now, as time goes on China carrot and stick will just get bigger.

What happen currently in phillippine is troubling for US, but if Duerte get the fishing right back and investment from China, or China do the opposite. Either way this will certainly give other ASEAN to think about.
 

weaponwh

Member
When have Malaysian & Vietnamese coastguard or navy ships attacked Indonesian coastguard boats in Indonesian territorial waters? I've never heard of it.

These aren't disputed waters, or around reefs or shoals in the Spratleys, this is Indonesia proper, & a few km from the coast. It's like an Indonesian ship interfering with a Chinese coastguard boat within sight of Hainan. This is definitely not the usual playing tag in the SCS.

If Indonesia sinks trawlers which are illegally fishing in Indonesian waters, so what? They're entitled to do that. It's legal under Indonesian & international law. Well, as long as they take the crews off first, which they do. What China does is totally illegal under Chinese law - & everyone elses.
How many nations sink trawler that they seized? obviously is not the norm. As for coast guard attacking? I only seen coast guard passing through, not attacking. the news you refer too where Chinese coast guard passing within 12nm of Indonesia or its EEZ? if its the former then I have to agrees its aggressive, but if its latter its just FON. Ill see if I can find these incident you refer too.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
China will assert itself to a point but not hard enough to push those countries into US.
That's exactly what China is doing : forcing various countries to strengthen defence ties with Uncle Sam! As for Vietnam, granted, recent events in the Spratlys may have provide them with an impetus to develop defence ties with Uncle Sam but even if Vietnam wasn't worried about China; ties would still improve, over time, with the U.S.

Either way this will certainly give other ASEAN to think about.
Other ASEAN claimants are already dealing with China in various ways : maintaining good ties, including doing their best not to provoke or offend China; whilst also strengthening ties with other countries. Dutarte might learn the hard way - as others have - that despite attempts to be chummy with China, China will remain uncompromising with regards to the Spratlys.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
How many nations sink trawler that they seized? obviously is not the norm. As for coast guard attacking? I only seen coast guard passing through, not attacking. the news you refer too where Chinese coast guard passing within 12nm of Indonesia or its EEZ? if its the former then I have to agrees its aggressive, but if its latter its just FON. Ill see if I can find these incident you refer too.
Seized fishing boats are usually either sold or destroyed. Indonesia isn't doing anything exceptional by destroying them. It used to sell them, but IIRC they found the price they got was very low & the same boats were turning up illegally fishing again.

I clearly stated that the March 2016 incident was in Indonesian territorial waters.

Boxing in a coastguard patrol boat going about its lawful business, jamming its communications & demanding that it hand over people rightly arrested for illegal acts is aggression wherever it takes place.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
Chinese fisherman sinking a S Korean coast guard ship that was pursuing them for fishing illegally in the SK EEZ. The PRC seem to be pushing out against all their maritime neighbours.
Spat with China Over Illegal Fishing Deepens - The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition): Daily News from Korea - National/Politics > Politics
It's not unusual to chase down illeagal fishing AusGov did it in 2003, but the tactics of china is getting fairly aggressive to say the least. So of the shanagians coming to light in this thread is a real eye opener.

Rogue fishing boat captured after 20-day chase - theage.com.au
 

weaponwh

Member
Seized fishing boats are usually either sold or destroyed. Indonesia isn't doing anything exceptional by destroying them. It used to sell them, but IIRC they found the price they got was very low & the same boats were turning up illegally fishing again.

I clearly stated that the March 2016 incident was in Indonesian territorial waters.

Boxing in a coastguard patrol boat going about its lawful business, jamming its communications & demanding that it hand over people rightly arrested for illegal acts is aggression wherever it takes place.
The fishing boat was near the island, but so far I haven't found any detail indicate its in territorial or EEZ. Also the incident indicate the Chinese coast Guard ram its own fishing boat presumably free from Indonesia ship. Sure China is wrong in this, but it didn't escalated by raming Indonesia Ship.
On the other side, I consider Indonesia much more aggressive compare to Vietnam/japan or other nation dealing with illegal fishing. For starter I haven't seen news on Vietnam/china/japan sinking as many as 100 trawlers. 2nd, Indonesia use NAVY ships to pursue and sometime fire upon trawler, sometime has deadly consequence. I haven't seen other nations, china/vietnam/japan use navy ship to handle this kind of situation.
 

weaponwh

Member
It's not unusual to chase down illeagal fishing AusGov did it in 2003, but the tactics of china is getting fairly aggressive to say the least. So of the shanagians coming to light in this thread is a real eye opener.

Rogue fishing boat captured after 20-day chase - theage.com.au
I doubt the incident directly involve the CCP, more likely its a rogue trawler right ;) In that case its just an individual act rather state sponsored. There are a lot Chinese fishing men went out further to catch fish, and some do so illegally.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The fishing boat was near the island, but so far I haven't found any detail indicate its in territorial or EEZ. Also the incident indicate the Chinese coast Guard ram its own fishing boat presumably free from Indonesia ship. Sure China is wrong in this, but it didn't escalated by raming Indonesia Ship.
On the other side, I consider Indonesia much more aggressive compare to Vietnam/japan or other nation dealing with illegal fishing. For starter I haven't seen news on Vietnam/china/japan sinking as many as 100 trawlers. 2nd, Indonesia use NAVY ships to pursue and sometime fire upon trawler, sometime has deadly consequence. I haven't seen other nations, china/vietnam/japan use navy ship to handle this kind of situation.
1st, the incident between Chinese CG whether is in Indonesian water or in Indonesian EEZ basically is not in the water any Chinese CG can legally operate..unless Chinese CG is in intention to provoke Indonesian Authority Vessel (whether it's CG or Navy),

2nd, the blowing vessels is a massage since previously many of those trawlers back to fishing illegaly in Indonesian waters after paying fined after being aprehanded on previous offense. Granted they colluding with some corrupt Indonesian officials, still by blowing up some of catch trawlers Indonesian maritime authority simply saying the massage that the rule has changes..

3rd, like I put previously in my posting, most of Indonesian CG boat are small, thus with China now putting large CG cutters..then Indonesia has no other choice but to put their Navy vessels to match to cutters. China large CG vessels is also only exist in few years ago when China begin building large vessels for their CG. Indonesia now begin to build new class of larger CG vessels (110 meters)..which I believe will take over some of Navy jobs on handling fishing disputes.

China economically can not be match by SEA nation..but some those nation also growing in economic capabilities..that they will begin to match China in SCS..Remembered 5-6 years ago, what China doing in SCS now, is still beyond their capabilities. Well who can really sure that 5 years frm now some of SEA nations can't challange what China put in SCS.

In short..China is challanging too many of it's neighbours..let alone US..again those neighbours don't have too challange China on same level..just to make capabilities that China not easy to defeat..it's already problem with China..considering China has to think also potential problem in other part of region outside SCS.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Well who can really sure that 5 years frm now some of SEA nations can't challange what China put in SCS.
Those nations you mentioned will have nothing to gain from doing this. Also, what makes you think that challenging China will make China think twice about doing what it's currently doing? If a certain country were to add the number of ships it has in the area to confront Chinese intrusions, the Chinese could reciprocate by sending even more ships. Note that nearly all of the Chinese ships in the disputed area are not military ships [mostly ships from the China Maritime Surveillance] but if others were to up the ante; China could respond by sending more ships and next time around they could be PLAN ships. If China is willing to tangle with the likes of the U.S, South Korea and Japan do you think any doubling of ships in the area or a more assertive [perceived by Chinese to be 'provocative'] policy by say Malaysia or Taiwan would really deter China?

[Inside Story - Why Is China Downsizing Its Military Force?]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqCYzCQ9PWw
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Those nations you mentioned will have nothing to gain from doing this. Also, what makes you think that challenging China will make China think twice about doing what it's currently doing? If a certain country were to add the number of ships it has in the area to confront Chinese intrusions, the Chinese could reciprocate by sending even more ships. Note that nearly all of the Chinese ships in the disputed area are not military ships [mostly ships from the China Maritime Surveillance] but if others were to up the ante; China could respond by sending more ships and next time around they could be PLAN ships. If China is willing to tangle with the likes of the U.S, South Korea and Japan do you think any doubling of ships in the area or a more assertive [perceived by Chinese to be 'provocative'] policy by say Malaysia or Taiwan would really deter China?

[Inside Story - Why Is China Downsizing Its Military Force?]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqCYzCQ9PWw
Strum, I never say it will deter China..like I say in previous post..no SEA country abble to match China economically..thus no one in SEA will be able to match China asset in SCS on same level.

However what I implied, China is challanging too many of its neighbours that her asset will have to be spread out. In sense none of China neighbours has to match China asset on one by one competition. China due to her behaviour can't being seen weakening in any of her borders dispute or even borders that not being disputed. She also has increasingly global ambition.

Unlike US who does not have any immediate neighbours abble to faced them on more or less equal footing (especially in air and naval engagement), China has Japan, ROK, and Taiwan in her immediate borders. This made she has to commit big portion of her asset in the area.
Thus go back to SCS..despite all her asset, there are limitations on what China can commited to SCS. Even within that limit, at the moment none of China SCS neighbour even can match China. But they can build up their asset to provide more challange for China SCS asset (or even China asset that can be afforded to be thrown in SCS) without reducing China asset on other area facing more powerfull neighbours.

That's what I impplied..due to her aggresive stance..it makes China have her own limitation on spreading out her asset...thus any her neighbours did not have to build up as much asset that China has..but only has to build up to match (and thus not even has to be in one on one)..portion of China asset that she can afford to commit in certain area.

That's what Vietnam do..no one will say that Vietnam 6 Kilo subs, or 4 (planned 6) Geppard corvettes will be enough to face China..but it will create challange to what China can afford to be stationed in SCS. Mimicking China, the neighbours now also build up their CG so they do not have to used naval vessel to face Chinese massive CG.

On top of that..China has USN to worried..

Back to your question..those SCS neighbours has much to gain on facing aggresive China..not they can do anything on what China already build in SCS..but they can put challange to what next China can grab. Something that are only doable due to China aggresive moved in other fronts..facing more powerful neighbours then SCS neighbours..
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The fishing boat was near the island, but so far I haven't found any detail indicate its in territorial or EEZ. Also the incident indicate the Chinese coast Guard ram its own fishing boat presumably free from Indonesia ship. Sure China is wrong in this, but it didn't escalated by raming Indonesia Ship.
On the other side, I consider Indonesia much more aggressive compare to Vietnam/japan or other nation dealing with illegal fishing. For starter I haven't seen news on Vietnam/china/japan sinking as many as 100 trawlers. 2nd, Indonesia use NAVY ships to pursue and sometime fire upon trawler, sometime has deadly consequence. I haven't seen other nations, china/vietnam/japan use navy ship to handle this kind of situation.
The Indonesian reports give distance from the coast. That tells you that the incident was in Indonesian territorial waters.

Whether countries use vessels from the navy or other agencies depends on various factors. For example, the Royal Navy here in the UK has some lightly armed (30mm gun) offshore patrol ships, & they're used for enforcing the EEZ. That's not unusual around the world. China & Japan have large coastguards equipped with large & powerful patrol ships. Many other countries don't.

You seem to be very keen to find excuses for illegal acts by Chinese boats. Why?
 
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