Ukranian Crisis

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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
US/NATO come to Ukraine's aid if and when Russia gets involved.

Russia comes in strictly to protect its people in Ukraine while NATO tells the rest of the world that Russia is illegally invading a country(and some more false accusations towards Russia would help as well, just watch CNN during the 2008 Georgia-Russia war to see what I am talking about).

Plus IMO the US NEEDS to start another war to have any chances of fixing their point of no return debt.

Just my 2 cents..

Really hope it all ends peaceful
That kind of nonsense is exactly why I don't watch CNN. There is no World War 3 behind this. This is a regional geopolitical crisis. It's very significant, because it highlights the problems that remain unresolved between Russia and the West, as well as the question of how FSU states see their future. Please keep the conversation focused around the facts and realities at hand.

EDIT: Just to clarify during the War in Georgia, I kept running and updated a similar thread to this one, posting info. I got buckets of comments, from people telling me how much more useful they found my thread then mainstream news. Hint hint. ;)

I find that Trade Unions fire really disturbing. I wouldn't blame if Russia had to fully intervene and even take Kiev at this point.
This is exactly how Russian a lot of public feels at this point. I'm not so sure. The rest of Ukraine is not like Crimea, and the question is, what do you do with Ukraine once you take it?

Sorry little bit out of topic.
Few days ago, Indonesian Mindef presented to Indonesian Parliament the military procurement program up until 2014. In the presentation there are still contract from Ukraine for BTR-4. Just wandering if any info for Ukraine defence industrial complex still working under present conditions ? Some talk around members of parliament from what I heard ask the mindef if Ukraine still capable to fullfill the contract for BTR-4, but from what I gather the mindef still can not give definite answer on Ukraine capabilities for delivering those BTR-4.

Isn't that most Ukraine military industry is on Eastern part ?
If I understand correctly, they'd need both the Kiev and Kharkov plants to fill that order. I don't know if that will be possible, given the current situation. But who knows. Things are developing very rapidly.

The Chinese landing craft contract is also up in the air right now.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
The Odessa incident was a tragedy and a shamefull display of humanitys worst characteristics: Cheering while people burn alive.

This will have consequences, not only has the euro-maidan crowd lost it's "innocence" in the eye's of the world which might decrease support for them in the west, but also is putting pressure on Putin and the russian goverment to react.

The pro-ukrainien elements couldn't have done a greater harm to their cause at this point, we will see how this is going to play out but I believe that kiev has to regain controll fast.

This is propably the last chance to avoid a much bigger catastrophy for ukraine.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Photos out of Slavyansk. There is some info about a foreign national, a sniper, who was killed in Slavyansk by the locals, after having fired on both militia and civilians. Info is unconfirmed. The OSCE observers seem to have been released.

u-96.livejournal.com/3380870.html

A civilian was run over by an APC in Slavyansk.

 

Ukrainian MoD reports human shields blockading their troops around Slavyansk.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ñëàâÿíñêå è îêðåñòíîñòÿõ - íîâîå îáîñòðåíèå, Êèåâ îáâèíÿåò ïîâñòàíöåâ â èñïîëüçîâàíèè "æèâîãî ùèòà"

A giant smoke trail can be seen in Konstantinovka. It's unclear what's burning or where.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - 3.05.14 КонÑтантиновка, что под Донецком

The Ukrainian military is in Kramatorsk. However instead of fighting against local self defense forces, it's confronted by angry civilians. The civilians in the second and third video are yelling at the soldiers to get out of their city. Shots have been fired in the city, and a lot of locals are scared. Only a few are in the streets. Nothing like the crowd that showed up at the airfield, last time the military was here.

Note the much better equipment on the soldiers. These are not army. these are SBU and MVD special detachments. However among the BTRs are many older BTR-70s, it looks like there aren't enough working BTR-80s.

u_96:
jerry24_it:

Fighting did occur in Kramatorsk, or near it, earlier. Several locals were killed, and some arrived with firearms injuries in the local hospital. Locals say 5 dead, 16 wounded.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - КраматорÑк
jerry24-it.livejournal.com/56197.html

In the Andreevka village, a human chain of civilians was fired on by the government troops, killing 10, wounding 40.

 

Russian sources claim that Ukraine is hiding true casualty numbers, when it claims that only 2 of their service members have died. Russian sources list 15 dead, with more unreported. This is probably true, given the heavy fighting, and that at least two service members died in the helicopter shootdowns alone.

Минобороны Украины Ñкрывает реальное количеÑтво жертв Ñо Ñвоей Ñтороны

CAST comments on the appearence of Ukrainian BMP-3s. It appears there are only two of them. Ukraine inherited 6 from the USSR. One was sold to the USA. One was modified with a new engine, and became a prototype. One was in such bad shape that it's completely unusable. This leaves 3 of which two have been sighted. Theories on why they're being used are two: either they're intended to be used as "Russian troops" in some sort of provocation, or the Ukrainian military is so desperate that it needs every working vehicle. Both have merits.

bmpd -

Ukrainian MVD is issuing Ukrainian passports to 300 foreign nationals out of Poland, and the Baltics, who are participating in the anti-terrorist operation as "instructors".

http://russian.rt.com/article/30439#ixzz30ewGTJrh

Photos out of Odessa.

u-96.livejournal.com/3381283.html

Videos. Warning the second one has some very graphic scenes.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Про невинноÑÑ‚ÑŒ

Meanwhile the Ukrainian MVD claims that the people in Trade Union building in Odessa set their own building on fire... despite you know all the footage, eyewitness testimony to the contrary, etc.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ДемократичеÑкое раÑледование показало

There are sources that indicate that the Ukrainian MVD was complicit in the events in Odessa. This would explain the highly passive behavior of the Odessa police, which did nothing. The casualty list for Odessa is 42 dead, 214 wounded.

Lots of photos and videos of the fighting in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are also in there.

Colonel Cassad -
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Photos out of Slavyansk. There is some info about a foreign national, a sniper, who was killed in Slavyansk by the locals, after having fired on both militia and civilians. Info is unconfirmed. The OSCE observers seem to have been released.

u-96.livejournal.com/3380870.html

A civilian was run over by an APC in Slavyansk.

 

Ukrainian MoD reports human shields blockading their troops around Slavyansk.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ñëàâÿíñêå è îêðåñòíîñòÿõ - íîâîå îáîñòðåíèå, Êèåâ îáâèíÿåò ïîâñòàíöåâ â èñïîëüçîâàíèè "æèâîãî ùèòà"

A giant smoke trail can be seen in Konstantinovka. It's unclear what's burning or where.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - 3.05.14 КонÑтантиновка, что под Донецком

The Ukrainian military is in Kramatorsk. However instead of fighting against local self defense forces, it's confronted by angry civilians. The civilians in the second and third video are yelling at the soldiers to get out of their city. Shots have been fired in the city, and a lot of locals are scared. Only a few are in the streets. Nothing like the crowd that showed up at the airfield, last time the military was here.

Note the much better equipment on the soldiers. These are not army. these are SBU and MVD special detachments. However among the BTRs are many older BTR-70s, it looks like there aren't enough working BTR-80s.

u_96:
jerry24_it:

Fighting did occur in Kramatorsk, or near it, earlier. Several locals were killed, and some arrived with firearms injuries in the local hospital. Locals say 5 dead, 16 wounded.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - КраматорÑк
jerry24-it.livejournal.com/56197.html

In the Andreevka village, a human chain of civilians was fired on by the government troops, killing 10, wounding 40.

 

Russian sources claim that Ukraine is hiding true casualty numbers, when it claims that only 2 of their service members have died. Russian sources list 15 dead, with more unreported. This is probably true, given the heavy fighting, and that at least two service members died in the helicopter shootdowns alone.

Минобороны Украины Ñкрывает реальное количеÑтво жертв Ñо Ñвоей Ñтороны

CAST comments on the appearence of Ukrainian BMP-3s. It appears there are only two of them. Ukraine inherited 6 from the USSR. One was sold to the USA. One was modified with a new engine, and became a prototype. One was in such bad shape that it's completely unusable. This leaves 3 of which two have been sighted. Theories on why they're being used are two: either they're intended to be used as "Russian troops" in some sort of provocation, or the Ukrainian military is so desperate that it needs every working vehicle. Both have merits.

bmpd -

Ukrainian MVD is issuing Ukrainian passports to 300 foreign nationals out of Poland, and the Baltics, who are participating in the anti-terrorist operation as "instructors".

http://russian.rt.com/article/30439#ixzz30ewGTJrh

Photos out of Odessa.

u-96.livejournal.com/3381283.html

Videos. Warning the second one has some very graphic scenes.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Про невинноÑÑ‚ÑŒ

Meanwhile the Ukrainian MVD claims that the people in Trade Union building in Odessa set their own building on fire... despite you know all the footage, eyewitness testimony to the contrary, etc.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ДемократичеÑкое раÑÑледование показало

There are sources that indicate that the Ukrainian MVD was complicit in the events in Odessa. This would explain the highly passive behavior of the Odessa police, which did nothing. The casualty list for Odessa is 42 dead, 214 wounded.

Lots of photos and videos of the fighting in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are also in there.

Colonel Cassad -
 

....

New Member
the Ukrainian troops in eastern ukraine have started killing unarmed protesters
and there is a pic on twitter of PrivatBank, on fire in Mariupol
(can't post links because of new account)
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Rebels communicate that 2 helos were shot down, two were damaged. So no third helo has been downed. They estimate that they killed ~10 soldiers, wounded many others. They've encountered Right Sector fighters among the government forces. In one checkpoint armored vehicles first ran over a person trying to blockade them, then fired into a human chain blockading them with 10 civilians killed and 40 wounded. They also report casualties among their own number, but they don't give a total figure.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yQ2Fd3FV5E#t=131"]Коммюнике Штаба народного Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ - YouTube[/nomedia]

The Ukrainian government reports that it has retaken Kramatorsk, but this appears to be untrue. At least 10 dead in Kramatorsk so far. Locals report that government troops have rolled through the city, without engaging the rebels, who continue to control government buildings in the city, and now that government forces have left, they rebels have control of the city once more.

CNN:
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êðàìàòîðñê âçÿò ïîä êîíòðîëü, çà èñêëþ÷åíèåì ãîðñîâåòà. "Ðîññèÿ 24": ïîãèáëè 10 ÷åëîâåê
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Êðàìàòîðñêå "ïîòåðÿíà ñâÿçü" ñ ñåïàðàòèñòàìè - âèäèìî, ãîðîä âçÿò ïîä êîíòðîëü

Photos and video from Kramatorsk.

jerry24_it:
jerry24-it.livejournal.com/56939.html

Photos from Slavyansk.

tutuskania:

In Lugansk the rebel militia have stormed a military commissariat where local draftees are being held. Results are unclear.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Ëóãàíñêå âîîðóæåííûå ëþäè øòóðìîâàëè âîåíêîìàò, ãäå íàõîäÿòñÿ 18-ëåòíèå ñðî÷íèêè

Heavy fighting is ongoing in Konstantinovka.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Êîíñòàíòèíîâêå Äîíåöêîé îáëàñòè èäåò áîé, ïîâñòàíöû èñïîëüçóþò ãðàíàòîìåòû

In Mariupol' government troops are attacking the rebels, who are holed up inside government buildings in the city center. And some serious trashing was done in the center, including attacks on private business, and the Bat'kovschina party office.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Ìàðèóïîëå ñèëîâèêè íà÷àëè øòóðì ãîðñîâåòà
http://military-informant.com/index.php/conflicts/5216-1.html

Russian sources speculate a lack of transport aircraft in Ukraine, given that they recently pulled a 4th Il-76 out of storage, in addition to the 3 flyable ones they already had.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/airforce/5217-1.html

Also we have reports of Ukrainian National Guard checkpoints, near the Belorussian border.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/conflicts/5215-1.html
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Earlier news of Ukrainian forces taking Kramatorks turned out to be completely false.Troops rolled through the outskirts, on APCs, but avoided the city center where the resistance fighter were positioned. They also seized a TV tower. Yes A TV tower. Not THE TV tower. In other words, instead of seizing the main TV center, they (by mistake) "captured" an unguarded re-translator tower that was not being used.

Russian media and bloggers cite a CNN correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh, who is in Kramatorsk, as describing the city being essentially under rebel control. This is confirmed by locals, who say the military has left. Fighting did take place, mainly around the outskirts, and government APCs shot up some buses and trolleybuses in the center, that may have been used as barricades.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ñлаваукраины "захватила" в КраматорÑке не ту телевышку
Colonel Cassad -
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/38dd/1oSKjR3Oyzg.jpg
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/38d4/r7trDV35rdg.jpg
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/38cb/t0En6iX6Zls.jpg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/60/1399151605_0660.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/29/1399151606_0229.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/40/1399151607_0840.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/64/1399151607_0764.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/96/1399181021_0396.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/49/1399181022_0349.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/13/1399181022_0313.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/68/1399181023_0968.720x480.jpeg
http://cs607321.vk.me/v607321177/85d7/-Qn-edOy-3I.jpg

In Mariupol' government forces attempted to storm the government buildings held by the rebels. No casualties were taken. Witnesses state that "the entire city" came out to defend the pro-Russian militia, making any sort of assault impossible. Tires were burned probably by the protesters.

ПроÑто интереÑный блог... - Мариуполь 4 маÑ
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsiPOv9T-DY"]Мариуполь ночью 04 05 2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-ksxg_-AaA"]Мариуполь 3 05 2014 1 - YouTube[/nomedia]

In Slavyansk the rebels have effectively fought off the government troops, and it seems that they may even have control over some of their outer checkpoints. Russian sources even report that fighting has resumed in the woods near the city. This would mean that the rebels pushed out government troops that far.

http://videocdn.itar-tass.com/width/744_b12f2926/tass/m2/uploads/i/20140504/3722534.jpg
ИТÐР-ТÐСС: ÐœÐµÐ¶Ð´ÑƒÐ½Ð°Ñ€Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¿Ð°Ð½Ð¾Ñ€Ð°Ð¼Ð° - Сторонники федерализации Украины вынудили отрÑды Ðацгвардии отÑтупить от СлавÑнÑка

Photos of a Donetsk Republic rally in Kurahovo.

http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/10125/peKYx1KeBEI.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/10135/Tm0p6KUhVFk.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1011d/3ta-lbaIxeY.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1012d/mw7mA0t8n-k.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/10146/JEhW-Lpz3CI.jpg

In Enakievo pro-Donetsk Republic protesters have seized the metallurgical plant.

http://images.unian.net/photos/2014_05/1399208196-3744.jpg
http://images.unian.net/photos/2014_05/1399207826-4244.jpg

A small protest in Kharkov (1000 people reportedly).

http://cs614930.vk.me/v614930032/cd0c/3WoKECYSrQQ.jpg
http://cs614930.vk.me/v614930032/cd20/FOllJtpjUgI.jpg
http://cs614930.vk.me/v614930032/cd3e/YehB-GSaI8s.jpg

Pro-Russian demonstration in Gorlovka.

http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1003a/Ub5_VzcyxTg.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/10043/AzhQ_nxVHRs.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/10055/fs_5njnn_0Y.jpg

In Lugansk the Military Commissariat was stormed by local militia. Right Sector insignia and armbands were found inside.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qzfh0cJg3M"]У военкомата в ЛуганÑке ополченцы нашли нашивки "Правого Ñектора" - YouTube[/nomedia]
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1y_E0k4BNA"]Ðовое Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² ЛуганÑке 03 05 2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]

A centralized army is being formed in Donetsk, with more volunteers that they can manage to organize coming in.

 

In Odessa local pro-Russian activists report that Right Sector activists are going into hiding, and leaving the city, fearing reprisals. Allegedly one was already murdered.

Locals report that Odessa Berkut has released pro-Russian activists that were arrested.

Also some sources claim that there are many more dead in then officially stated, and that there are attempts to secretly move bodies out.

https://vk.com/antimaidan_zahid_ua
УкраинÑкие журналиÑÑ‚Ñ‹ Ñообщают о Ñотне погибших в Доме профÑоюзов | ОдеÑÑа | ВеÑти

Checkpoints near the Belorussian border have been confirmed.

http://cs619431.vk.me/v619431285/3ac4/avBR4GeCkLY.jpg
http://cs619431.vk.me/v619431285/3acd/V9ERDnd59ug.jpg
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Earlier news of Ukrainian forces taking Kramatorks turned out to be completely false.Troops rolled through the outskirts, on APCs, but avoided the city center where the resistance fighter were positioned. They also seized a TV tower. Yes A TV tower. Not THE TV tower. In other words, instead of seizing the main TV center, they (by mistake) "captured" an unguarded re-translator tower that was not being used.

Russian media and bloggers cite a CNN correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh, who is in Kramatorsk, as describing the city being essentially under rebel control. This is confirmed by locals, who say the military has left. Fighting did take place, mainly around the outskirts, and government APCs shot up some buses and trolleybuses in the center, that may have been used as barricades.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ñлаваукраины "захватила" в КраматорÑке не ту телевышку
Colonel Cassad -
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/38dd/1oSKjR3Oyzg.jpg
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/38d4/r7trDV35rdg.jpg
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/38cb/t0En6iX6Zls.jpg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/60/1399151605_0660.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/29/1399151606_0229.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/40/1399151607_0840.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/64/1399151607_0764.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/96/1399181021_0396.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/49/1399181022_0349.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/13/1399181022_0313.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/68/1399181023_0968.720x480.jpeg
http://cs607321.vk.me/v607321177/85d7/-Qn-edOy-3I.jpg

In Mariupol' government forces attempted to storm the government buildings held by the rebels. No casualties were taken. Witnesses state that "the entire city" came out to defend the pro-Russian militia, making any sort of assault impossible. Tires were burned probably by the protesters.

ПроÑто интереÑный блог... - Мариуполь 4 маÑ
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsiPOv9T-DY"]Мариуполь ночью 04 05 2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-ksxg_-AaA"]Мариуполь 3 05 2014 1 - YouTube[/nomedia]

Fighting around Konstantinovka.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe8ZSrm5aeU"]Стрельба из бронетехники возле КонÑÑ‚Ñнтиновки 03 05 2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]

In Slavyansk the rebels have effectively fought off the government troops, and it seems that they may even have control over some of their outer checkpoints. Russian sources even report that fighting has resumed in the woods near the city. This would mean that the rebels pushed out government troops that far.

http://videocdn.itar-tass.com/width/744_b12f2926/tass/m2/uploads/i/20140504/3722534.jpg
ИТÐÐ*-ТÐСС: ÐœÐµÐ¶Ð´ÑƒÐ½Ð°Ñ€Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¿Ð°Ð½Ð¾Ñ€Ð°Ð¼Ð° - Сторонники федерализации Украины вынудили отрÑды Ðацгвардии отÑтупить от СлавÑнÑка

Photos of a Donetsk Republic rally in Kurahovo.

http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/10125/peKYx1KeBEI.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/10135/Tm0p6KUhVFk.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1011d/3ta-lbaIxeY.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1012d/mw7mA0t8n-k.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/10146/JEhW-Lpz3CI.jpg

In Enakievo pro-Donetsk Republic protesters have seized the metallurgical plant.

http://images.unian.net/photos/2014_05/1399208196-3744.jpg
http://images.unian.net/photos/2014_05/1399207826-4244.jpg

A small protest in Kharkov (1000 people reportedly).

http://cs614930.vk.me/v614930032/cd0c/3WoKECYSrQQ.jpg
http://cs614930.vk.me/v614930032/cd20/FOllJtpjUgI.jpg
http://cs614930.vk.me/v614930032/cd3e/YehB-GSaI8s.jpg

Pro-Russian demonstration in Gorlovka.

http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1003a/Ub5_VzcyxTg.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/10043/AzhQ_nxVHRs.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/10055/fs_5njnn_0Y.jpg

In Lugansk the Military Commissariat was stormed by local militia. Right Sector insignia and armbands were found inside.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qzfh0cJg3M"]У военкомата в ЛуганÑке ополченцы нашли нашивки "Правого Ñектора" - YouTube[/nomedia]
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1y_E0k4BNA"]Ðовое Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² ЛуганÑке 03 05 2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]

A centralized army is being formed in Donetsk, with more volunteers that they can manage to organize coming in.

*

In Odessa local pro-Russian activists report that Right Sector activists are going into hiding, and leaving the city, fearing reprisals. Allegedly one was already murdered.

Locals report that Odessa Berkut has released pro-Russian activists that were arrested.

Also some sources claim that there are many more dead in Odessa, then officially stated, and that there are attempts to secretly move bodies out.

https://vk.com/an_zahid_ua
УкраинÑкие журналиÑÑ‚Ñ‹ Ñообщают о Ñотне погибших в Доме профÑоюзов | ОдеÑÑа | ВеÑти

Checkpoints near the Belorussian border have been confirmed.

http://cs619431.vk.me/v619431285/3ac4/avBR4GeCkLY.jpg
http://cs619431.vk.me/v619431285/3acd/V9ERDnd59ug.jpg
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Newsfeed aside, here's my analysis.

It seems that government forces are unmotivated, poorly organized, and incapable of protracted heavy fighting. They've fallen back in Slavyansk three times now. First time stopped by unarmed locals, the second time stopped by a fairly low level of resistance, and the third time they gathered greater resources and even conducted air strikes, but still couldn't take Slavyansk. They also ran into stiff resistance in Konstantinovka, and other small towns around the region. They haven't even tried to take Donetsk, and I'm not sure they could. There is persistent info on foreign nationals, possibly instructors, and on Right Sector fighters without uniforms.

The rebels are a lot better organized then I originally thought. They clearly have access to heavy weapons, including RPGs, ATGMs, and MANPADS. In several incidents they claim they bought the weapons from the Ukrainian military, for dollars. So far they have not used their captured armored vehicles in combat, and I'm not sure they know how to, but at this point anything is possible. If things continue the way they are, the rebels will start to gain strength, as more and more people are killed, and more and more people get angry at Kiev over this "counter-terrorist" operation.

Finally the situation closely resembles what happened in Georgia in the 90s, which shows us a potential path this conflict could take. As it escalates the government will eventually start to lose, and the country will sink into more and more chaos. Given the escalating violence the West will start to see any sort of end to the fighting as desirable, even if it means giving Russia a leading role in dealing with this mess. I'm not sure whether it will go this way, given that Ukraine is physically a lot larger then Georgia, but the similarities are concerning.
 

stojo

Member
Newsfeed aside, here's my analysis.

It seems that government forces are unmotivated, poorly organized, and incapable of protracted heavy fighting. They've fallen back in Slavyansk three times now. First time stopped by unarmed locals, the second time stopped by a fairly low level of resistance, and the third time they gathered greater resources and even conducted air strikes, but still couldn't take Slavyansk. They also ran into stiff resistance in Konstantinovka, and other small towns around the region. They haven't even tried to take Donetsk, and I'm not sure they could. There is persistent info on foreign nationals, possibly instructors, and on Right Sector fighters without uniforms.

The rebels are a lot better organized then I originally thought. They clearly have access to heavy weapons, including RPGs, ATGMs, and MANPADS. In several incidents they claim they bought the weapons from the Ukrainian military, for dollars. So far they have not used their captured armored vehicles in combat, and I'm not sure they know how to, but at this point anything is possible. If things continue the way they are, the rebels will start to gain strength, as more and more people are killed, and more and more people get angry at Kiev over this "counter-terrorist" operation.

Finally the situation closely resembles what happened in Georgia in the 90s, which shows us a potential path this conflict could take. As it escalates the government will eventually start to lose, and the country will sink into more and more chaos. Given the escalating violence the West will start to see any sort of end to the fighting as desirable, even if it means giving Russia a leading role in dealing with this mess. I'm not sure whether it will go this way, given that Ukraine is physically a lot larger then Georgia, but the similarities are concerning.
You are spot on. The only thing where I disagree is that the West will fall back if violence extends to a large period of time.

Western governments (and they are not the only one) have a tendency to eventually start to believe their own propaganda.

Further more, they are exposed to immense pressure by the media, which are riding on a pretty primitive platform, based on usual anti-Russian stereotypes, simply because that kind of discourse is self-understandable to an average Western viewer (take a look at the appalling way CNN reports on Ukraine).

So eventually, western politicians, especially American ones, might find them selves in a situation dictated by radicalized anti-Russian public opinion in which they can score political points by escalation, rather than other way around. Even if it hurts short term business interests of the portions of their economies.

And as a violence goes worse, and the situation escalates, this anti-Russian stance will become more, and more important.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
Here is a witness account of someone who participated in the recent Odessa events.

http://echo.msk.ru/blog/echomsk/1312556-echo/

Basically some new light on these events from someone who claims to have witnessed them in their entirety. It is in Russian. I hope Google translate helps.

Edit: The person giving the account is on the euro-maidan side.
 
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gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Come on people, lets stay in the sensible lane - there is no place for stereotyping in here
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Guardian moderators, who deal with 40,000 comments a day, believe there is an orchestrated pro-Kremlin campaign

The readers' editor on
Yep. It's a well known phenomenon, and it predates the crisis. The Russian government employes people for PR purposes who post material online. Interestingly enough it appears Ukraine does the same, as there is a minority of posters with the identical profile, but the opposite side. They probably have less money to do it with, but it's part of the whole information war.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Yep. It's a well known phenomenon, and it predates the crisis. The Russian government employes people for PR purposes who post material online. Interestingly enough it appears Ukraine does the same, as there is a minority of posters with the identical profile, but the opposite side. They probably have less money to do it with, but it's part of the whole information war.
Its been interesting to see some of the stats go up from various nationalities - up until recently it was only really the chinese who were perceived to have a co-ordinated capability.

It becomes pretty apparent when new posters with low counts suddenly appear. Have witnessed this on a few sites
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Its been interesting to see some of the stats go up from various nationalities - up until recently it was only really the chinese who were perceived to have a co-ordinated capability.
As far back as 2010, some Russian opposition sources were claiming that the government was engaging in this sort of behavior online. At the time they didn't look very credible, but now it looks like they knew what they were talking about.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Here is a witness account of someone who participated in the recent Odessa events.

http://echo.msk.ru/blog/echomsk/1312556-echo/

Basically some new light on these events from someone who claims to have witnessed them in their entirety. It is in Russian. I hope Google translate helps.

Edit: The person giving the account is on the euro-maidan side.
I don't think the account is true. There's a lot of stuff that doesn't match up. Some of the Right Sector guys were inside the Trade Union building, waiting there for the anti-Maydan guys to show up. Some of the people were killed inside the building by Molotov cocktails, one of the women inside was allegedly strangled.

Warning, this link contains extremely graphic images. This is not appropriate for those with a weak stomach, or those with weak nerves.

ru_cprf:

There's also a few youtube videos with interviews of the survivors and witnesses of what happened. If you don't speak Russian they're not helpful, but if you do you can find them.

Colonel Cassad -

Out of the 14 for whom cause of death has been published, 5 were shot. And another fun fact, your source claims that the anti-Maydan sprayed automatic fire into a crowd, as well as handguns, claiming the pro-Russian forces were well equipped. But instead of a huge death toll on the Right Sector side, there is a minimal death toll, and a huge death toll from the other side...
 

SolarWind

Active Member
I don't think the account is true. There's a lot of stuff that doesn't match up. Some of the Right Sector guys were inside the Trade Union building, waiting there for the anti-Maydan guys to show up. Some of the people were killed inside the building by Molotov cocktails, one of the women inside was allegedly strangled.

Warning, this link contains extremely graphic images. This is not appropriate for those with a weak stomach, or those with weak nerves.

ru_cprf:

There's also a few youtube videos with interviews of the survivors and witnesses of what happened. If you don't speak Russian they're not helpful, but if you do you can find them.

Colonel Cassad -

Out of the 14 for whom cause of death has been published, 5 were shot. And another fun fact, your source claims that the anti-Maydan sprayed automatic fire into a crowd, as well as handguns, claiming the pro-Russian forces were well equipped. But instead of a huge death toll on the Right Sector side, there is a minimal death toll, and a huge death toll from the other side...
I have to agree with you, given the overwhelming evidence you present. It remains to be seen how the US government will react to this barbarism.
 

Bolverik

New Member
I have to agree with you, given the overwhelming evidence you present. It remains to be seen how the US government will react to this barbarism.
This story is not a lie, but rather eye-witness account of a man, who does not understand what he saw and interpret events according to his beleive. Happens all the time.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
This story is not a lie, but rather eye-witness account of a man, who does not understand what he saw and interpret events according to his beleive. Happens all the time.
How do you know? Were you there? Can you prove beyond reasonable doubt your claim? We work with verifiable facts, not half truths, untruths or outright lies. That is why Feanor and some of are not treating media accounts as reliable.
 
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