Kim Jong-Il is dead

Global Scree said:

So are we getting Kim Jong-un or do we have Chang Sung-taek as regent? Has the succession been announced officially yet? I cant say I know much of Chang's politics, was he totally complicit with Jong-il's methodology, is he more anti-western, more sympathetic? lots and lots of questions....

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My2Cents said:

Not official yet, but it looks like he might be sharing power with the military.

Lets see if he is really sharing power or just a figure head.

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From your article....

Jang Song-thaek, 65, brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il and the younger Kim's uncle, is seen as the power behind the throne along with his wife Kim Kyong-hui, Kim Jong-il's sister.

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So it seems we are getting some form of hybrid power share. I fear that Jong-un will become a talking head before too long, Chang is a skilled politician and will manipulate the situation to his own agenda. He probably suggested the missile test.

Interestingly earlier today the times (UK) ran a piece on a statement from the South Korean President, basically quoting him saying that it was a matter of time before the North falls, that it was inevitable and that the South should start preparing now for a future expensive reunification.

The article goes on to talk about hypothetical economic synergy between the resource rich north and the secondary industry rich south. The statement strikes me as very aggressive and authoritative. I think we will have to wait a few months before we start seeing any indication of policy changes to the current status quo. If any changes are too be made that is.

Global Scree said:

From your article....

Jang Song-thaek, 65, brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il and the younger Kim's uncle, is seen as the power behind the throne along with his wife Kim Kyong-hui, Kim Jong-il's sister.

---------------

So it seems we are getting some form of hybrid power share. I fear that Jong-un will become a talking head before too long, Chang is a skilled politician and will manipulate the situation to his own agenda. He probably suggested the missile test.

Interestingly earlier today the times (UK) ran a piece on a statement from the South Korean President, basically quoting him saying that it was a matter of time before the North falls, that it was inevitable and that the South should start preparing now for a future expensive reunification.

The article goes on to talk about hypothetical economic synergy between the resource rich north and the secondary industry rich south. The statement strikes me as very aggressive and authoritative. I think we will have to wait a few months before we start seeing any indication of policy changes to the current status quo. If any changes are too be made that is.

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If he can survive long enough, time will solve his problems as the old guard begin to die off. Time is on his side.
Everyone is just going to need patience to figure out this new NK enigma but hopefully we will start catching glimpses and clues as to what makes him tick. His people really deserve a break.

What do you think about China's open support for North Korea's next successor?

China's open support for North Korea's next successor Kim Jung Un following Pyongyang's quick succession is gaining attention.

The Chinese government visited the North Korean embassy in China and showed respect to Kimg Jong Il. The Chinese president Hu Zintao said "I believe North Korea will succeed in building a strong communist country, establishing a long-term stabilization of the Korean peninsula, and working hard for a peaceful development over time, under the rule of Kim Jung Un."

It is the first time that a Chinese president visits an incense altar since the last visit to the one of Kim Il Sung in 1997.
China's approval for Kim Jung Un is making certain the friendship of the two countries, as well as containing a strategic intention of increasing its influence in North Korea.

We should hope that China's policy towards North Korea is stabilizing North Korea and changing North Korea using the method with which China successfully changed, bringing about peace and stability in the Korea Peninsula, not a diplomatic plan trying to gain hegemony in both Koreas.

A thing to consider is that Kim was in short said one man that should not have been born in the first place saying that i hope he rot in ***
However the man did have his nation in a iron grip preventing any influence and any opposition to cause something even more radical then kim did.
Not saying he was a great leader and i do not say he did a good job as we all know we are better of without him.
But fact remains that he did have ultimate control over his country.
This made him controllable as analysts could sort of predict him.
The Chinese did have sort of a chain around his neck and kept him sort of in check to make sure that out of all the stupid and ridiculous actions he mad ein the past he did not make the ultimate mistake.
Keep in mind NK might be a backward nation but they do have 20k artillery and nukes which makes them a serious danger to the region.
So in case of war Kim was able to rain down hell on SK and any other opponent.
Sort said getting rid of him using force would be a very costly thing to do because of the risk of his nukes thats just a fact.
My point here is Kim is checked and known most people know his tricks and know how he would respond on issues.
His son however should be regarded as even more dangerous a few reasons why:
His son is probably been educated by his fathers rule and at the same time his son is young and is probably more dynamic then his daddy.
I assume that his son is well educated and able to adapt to the future which his dad could not.
So now you got a young leader that has proper education, and has knowledge about all his fathers enemies and their ways of doing politics's against NK.
While we do know practically nothing about him.
I assume that the son is backed by his fathers loyal generals and political key figures which gives the son a wealth of information, and enough coverage to probably be even more dangerous.
The thing is Kim himself did lead the nation with a iron grip but he never moved into the present, he never made any serious effort to adapt his nation and his rule to todays standards (Or he failed horrible) however his son has probably seen first hand by trail and error what his father did and i assume that the boy did take notice.
Combine all these factors and you get potentially very dangerous person, and because the boy is young he has all the time in the world to figure out what to do next.

Sure my reply here is based on logical thinking and assumptions so do not blast me if i am wrong but i do believe i got a point here.

Personally i believe that the boy should be given some space, and perhaps the west can positively influence him rather then shutting the door in his face and make his "teached"anger towards the west and anything NON-NK a reality.
Perhaps the west and all its allies can show the boy that IF and only IF the game is being played by the rules that there are options for his nation.
Let him choose what he wants be a dictator thats even more ruthless then his dad or be a person that might change the dynamics and way of life/thinking of his brainwashed nation and yes this might take time along time.
But its well worth a shot.
Because IMO anything is better then the alternative given the fact that his father would not be that stupid to hit first, but his son on the other hand might change all that because of the experience he has while his father did rule.
Not sure if you guys understand what i try to point out but i would like some feedback on this.

Anyway Happy X-Mas everyone

Why did they condole on the enemy's death?

Korean government already expressed their condolence to N.Korean people for their leader's death. Also they allowed 2 korean people to visit N.Korea for their condolence call. Korea's expresident Kim dae jung's widow Mrs Lee and the chief of Hyundai Hyun jung eun are them. They already made their condolence call yesterday.

It was said that Mrs Lee met Kim jung eun and held his hands for a while with shedding tears. But now they are being criticized for what they did in N.Korea. As you know, Making a condolence call to N.Korea and Kim jung il is not a simple thing in Korea. It causes sever conflicts among Koreans. So comprehensive view and thinking are politically needed to Korean government when they do something about N.Korea issues.

If they made a mistake diplomatically, N.Korea could use it cleverly. I think what the 2 people did in North Korea was a little rush. There is freedom in Korea that people can do everything they want but they also take responsibility for their behaviors. Their condolence call would hurt some Korean families who lost their children or parents by Kim jung il and his son's provocation.

Sobbing North Koreans, they are acting?

One defector who was a student of Kim il sung university revealed the secret of sobbing North Koreans. North Korea's media has broadcasted crying people since last 19th Dec. He said that he had been mobilized for Kim il sung's condolence call and he couldn't help but cry out because there were North Korean security guards to watch out. He also said, except for people standing in the front row, No one didn't sob at all. What a pity thing it is... People are forced to squeeze their tears. What else can they squeeze out? They've already done enough for their country.

He's been officially declared 'supreme leader' so it looks like a smooth transition and nothing to rock the boat. So far, so good.

ngatimozart said:

It is also so said that he has a ruthless streak. He is being portrayed by the North Korean media as the "Great Successor". Hopefully a peaceful and orderly transition of power without recourse to the creation of extreme international incidents by Pyongyang to divert attention domestic attention from what is happening at home.

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If you read about some of the things this guy has already done, it makes you wonder what will happen over the next few years. Out of the 3 sons, Kim Jong Il seems to have picked the most crazy of them all. I think there must be at least some preparation by PLA to go in and topple the regime in case things get really out of hand.

nuclear weapon + extremely volatile and sadistic ruler -> disaster waiting to happen

North Koreans sent to labour camps for not mourning enough | Sympatico.ca News

North korean citizens are sent to labour camps for not mourning hard enough. Isn't that just lovely ?

Seems like it gets worse with each successor. Why he chose the most hardline out of all his heirs seems only to ensure regime survival.

North Korean Nukes

The difficulty with getting North Korea to just throw away it's nuclear weapons programs is largely because it is one of the things that has kept the nations wary of it and unlikely to invade. If it does throw away it's program it runs the risk of an opportunistic reigniting of the conflict between North and South Korea. If that happens, China will likely get involved again on the side of North Korea and the US will get involved, also dragging as many of it's allies in with it if history has taught me anything. This could potentially spiral out of control and cause major tensions.

Eeshaan said:

Seems like it gets worse with each successor. Why he chose the most hardline out of all his heirs seems only to ensure regime survival.

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Read some history written after the fact, not during their reign, of most of the world’s absolute rulers and it will quickly become obvious that terms like homicidal, ruthless, and egomaniac are part of the standard job description. Insane and maniacal are other popular adjectives. And they are ALL control freaks.

Intelligence is usually seen as a negative trait. Empathy (unless successfully faked) is generally fatal.

Then bone up on your Machiavelli. It just goes downhill from there. :sniper

My2Cents said:

Read some history written after the fact, not during their reign, of most of the world’s absolute rulers and it will quickly become obvious that terms like homicidal, ruthless, and egomaniac are part of the standard job description. Insane and maniacal are other popular adjectives. And they are ALL control freaks.

Intelligence is usually seen as a negative trait. Empathy (unless successfully faked) is generally fatal.

Then bone up on your Machiavelli. It just goes downhill from there. :sniper

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As a leader it is always wiser to follow the teachings & strategies of Sun Tzu than Machiavelli. If these leaders followed Sun Tzu's strategies, they would not have to exert so much of control on their nations' citizens, and achieve far greater goals than what they have right now, without the use of any force whatsoever.

These people dont realize that you reap what you sow. Behaving with the masses like this makes you and your entire lineage only an uprising or two away from total annhilation. This is also a cause for the extreme paranoia nad hysteria that leaders like this suffer from.

For example, the president of Equatorial Guinea, Theodore Obiang, one of the most, if not THE most ruthless dictators in Africa, had his entire bodyguard & security detail at his home walk around without a single round of ammunition in their guns. He had all that ammo locked away in his basement, out of fear of assassination. That was until the attempted 2004 coup by private contractors hired by Mark Thatcher.

Now that is a fine example of the average dictator mentality.

Lither said:

The difficulty with getting North Korea to just throw away it's nuclear weapons programs is largely because it is one of the things that has kept the nations wary of it and unlikely to invade. If it does throw away it's program it runs the risk of an opportunistic reigniting of the conflict between North and South Korea. If that happens, China will likely get involved again on the side of North Korea and the US will get involved, also dragging as many of it's allies in with it if history has taught me anything. This could potentially spiral out of control and cause major tensions.

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The chance of North Korea being invaded by South Korea is negligible while the regime is intact. Ditto the USA or China. And that was before they got nukes. There is just no payoff for doing so.

The North Korea economy is such as mess that the best guess is that reintegrating it with South Korea is that it would be at least 10x more than when East and West Germany were rejoined, and East Germany was the economic star of the Warsaw Pact! China wants North Korea to stay as a buffer between them and South Korea/USA, but doesn’t think that they can afford to keep it afloat if the situation gets much worse. North Korea has become an economic booby prize everyone wants to stick someone else with, but does not want anyone else to control.

Now, it is even worse. The North Korea economy is on the verge of collapse and is likely to take the regime with it. China is panicked that there could be a wave of several million refuges overwhelming the capacity of their border guard, which would cause chaos in northern China, and putting a lie to all those years of propaganda over how well things were going in North Korea. China has supposedly given Kim Jung Un orders that if he does not reform the North Korea economy and get things turned around immediately, that they will have him replaced with someone who will. But there is real doubt as to whether China has the capability to carry out the threat.

Worse, if North Korea falls apart, South Korea may feel they have no choice but to intervene (not invade) on humanitarian grounds, then China has to decide if they will get involved again. But if China moves in, aggressively South Korea may just retreat back to their border and leave China with the whole mess, which could set their country economic growth back 10 to 20 years!

The situation in North Korea is so bad that it is their best defense. The nukes are, at best, superfluous.
:hul

My2Cents said:

China has supposedly given Kim Jung Un orders that if he does not reform the North Korea economy and get things turned around immediately, that they will have him replaced with someone who will. But there is real doubt as to whether China has the capability to carry out the threat.

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I don't think that China has such a major influence over North Korea. Yes, they have an old relationship ( almost as allies ), but for China to literally give Kim Jung Un a deadline to get his economy in order or replaced, I really doubt that China is capable of such a feat.

After all, Regime stability & survival is the No.1 priority for Kim, won't be possible to simply "overthrow" or replace him with another leader. The Kim Dynasty has always had 100% support of it's military, making a coup even more difficult if not impossible...